Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report.
According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”.
Some of the main points identified for the future are:
- Increased instability
- Increased likelihood of confrontation and war
- Rising challenge to NATO and the West from emerging and resurgent powers (aka Russia and China)
- Asymmetric demographic change
- Rapid urbanization
- Increasingly polarized societies
- Continuous if not rising importance of new and emerging technologies, which offer enormous opportunities but also challenges and vulnerabilities
- The impact of globalization
- Rising importance of climate change and related cross cutting impacts, water security, food security and resource competition
NATO sees growing Russia, China challenge; higher risk of war
BERLIN (Reuters) – China’s growing military strength and a resurgent Russia will pose growing challenges to the trans-Atlantic alliance in coming years, and NATO’s moves to bolster its capabilities could trigger a new Cold War-style arms race, a NATO report said.