Impacts and Consequences
If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns,
- Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict
Facts and analysis
On 9 December 2017, Libya’s Government of National Accord and Italy agreed to launch an operations center for combatting the migrant smuggling networks that facilitate the migrant flow across the Mediterranean. According to GNA Prime Minister Serraj, the operations center will include “representatives from the coastguard, the illegal migration department, the Libyan attorney general and the intelligence services, along with their Italian counterparts.”
With no details provided on how this center will operate, as well as seeing the GNA’s limited influence over militias, the effectiveness of this joint operations center and its impact on Libya’s spillover remains to be seen. Over the coming months, the center’s activities and any measurable effects will need to be monitored.
Impact on Issues
Critical uncertainty: capability to truly operationalise with efficiency the center on the shorter term
➙ ➀ Mitigating spillover from the Libyan conflict
TRIPOLI (Reuters) – Libya’s U.N.-backed government agreed with Italy on Saturday to establish a joint operations room for tackling migrant smugglers and traffickers as part of efforts to curb migrant flows toward Europe, according to a statement.