This is the 24 March 2022 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan.

Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve.

The 24 March 2022 scan→

Horizon scanning, weak signals and biases

We call signals weak, because it is still difficult to discern them among a vast array of events. However, our biases often alter our capacity to measure the strength of the signal. As a result, the perception of strength will vary according to the awareness of the actor. At worst, biases may be so strong that they completely block the very identification of the signal.

In the field of strategic foresight and warning, risk management and future studies, it is the job of good analysts to scan the horizon. As a result, they can perceive signals. Analysts then evaluate the strength of these signals according to specific risks and dynamics. Finally, they deliver their findings to users. These users can be other analysts, officers or decision-makers.

You can read a more detailed explanation in one of our cornerstone articles: Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Warning: Definition and Practice.

The sections of the scan

Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme:

  • world (international politics and geopolitics);
  • economy;
  • science including AI, QIS, technology and weapons, ;
  • analysis, strategy and futures;
  • the Covid-19 pandemic;
  • energy and environment.

However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, when facts and events interact across boundaries.

The information collected (crowdsourced) does not mean endorsement.

Featured image: Image of the Swedish-ESO 15m Submillimeter Telescope (SEST) at ESO’s La Silla Observatory, located on the outskirts of the Chilean Atacama Desert, 600 km north of Santiago de Chile and at an altitude of 2400 metres. The photo was taken by Stefan Seip, one of the ESO Photo Ambassadors.

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for international relations, national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the war in Ukraine, international order and the rise of China, the overstepping of planetary boundaries and international relations, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

Join the Conversation


  1. To the best of my knowledge, this issue of Red Team Weekly is very important and crucial. Ukraine was posed to harm Russian interests and security concerns on the European side, supported by Poland and NATO. On Asian side, Kazakhstan was instigated to encircle Russia. Nevertheless, Moscow chose the worst option to hit back. Russia’s approach is like a 20TH century reading. It’s too hardware- oriented and considered out of context with the European standards. I believe that Russia should now opt to harden its position towards Central Asian countries that might include Iran. In Iran public opinion is rapidly turning against Russia and its policies towards Tehran. Iranians were particularly irritated by Vladimir Putin’s manner and low level protocol in meeting with Iran’s Raissi in Kremlin.
    Thank you Dr. Lavoix for this timely issue.
    My warmest regards

    1. Thank you Fereydoun for your analysis and to share your knowledge on Iran.
      Unfortunately, I am not sure that war is truly a 20th century approach… I see no fundamental reason that would make war something of the past, on the contrary, considering a rather generalised absence of wisdom, inability to think rationally, and, first and foremost the fundamental instability of the international order, to say nothing of the rising multiple threats stemming from the overstepping of planetary boundaries.
      Sorry for this rather pessimistic vision
      Warmest regards

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.