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	Comments on: AI at War (2) – Preparing for the US-China War?	</title>
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	<description>Strategic Foresight &#38; Early Warning ･ Political &#38; Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios</description>
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		By: Article Header Design: “AI at War (2) – Preparing for the US-China War?” - Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli		</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2024/09/17/uschina-ai-war/#comment-34719</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Article Header Design: “AI at War (2) – Preparing for the US-China War?” - Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Oct 2024 16:42:32 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] The design on the site of The Red Team Analysis Society (click to expand) Access the Article [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] The design on the site of The Red Team Analysis Society (click to expand) Access the Article [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: eugene vogt		</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2024/09/17/uschina-ai-war/#comment-34530</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[eugene vogt]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Sep 2024 18:03:59 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Interesting perspective on a critical emerging technology.  In the US Air Force, as early as over 40 years ago we were using RPV dune buggies to develop the technology and tactics that would become precision strike and used to counter mobile missile launchers and other threats.  By the 90s, we were testing RPV and semiautonomous Jetskis to determine unmanned performance and capabilities that could be exploited in the surface environment for stealth, communications, and other missions, as the Ukrainians have demonstrated so recently.  In fact, the cruise missiles were basically a new combination of existing technologies... radionavigation systems including GPS and gyroscopes dating back to WWII, nap of the earth flight and radar terrain following like the F-111, jet and rocket technologies, and a selection of missile launch options from ground, air, and sea.  As has been proven before, the integration of AI with these warfighting technologies will enable and require changes in the way war is fought, the balance of power, and the geopolitical arena... so, the question, like that of the cold war, is will it become so hot that it devastates the human population resulting in another global societal collapse as Jared Diamond discusses, or will our ability to socially evolve and cooperate result in the emergence of a new ultrasociety and global order to avoid another global societal collapse and implement a new international rules based order?  Does Peter Zeihan&#039;s demographics based analysis of US/China rivalry and withdrawal from global leadership play out?  As Turchin says, &quot;Since we can foresee the effect of ChatGPT and its ilk on potentially creating large numbers of counter-elites, in principle, we can figure out how to manage it. The problem is that I have no confidence that our current polarized, gridlocked political system is capable of adopting the policy measures needed to defuse the tensions brought about by elite overproduction and popular immiseration. I hope I am wrong; but if not, prepare for a rough ride.&quot;  (https://peterturchin.com/when-a-i-comes-for-the-elites/ Nov 2023 blog post)  Semper Paratus!  Gene]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting perspective on a critical emerging technology.  In the US Air Force, as early as over 40 years ago we were using RPV dune buggies to develop the technology and tactics that would become precision strike and used to counter mobile missile launchers and other threats.  By the 90s, we were testing RPV and semiautonomous Jetskis to determine unmanned performance and capabilities that could be exploited in the surface environment for stealth, communications, and other missions, as the Ukrainians have demonstrated so recently.  In fact, the cruise missiles were basically a new combination of existing technologies&#8230; radionavigation systems including GPS and gyroscopes dating back to WWII, nap of the earth flight and radar terrain following like the F-111, jet and rocket technologies, and a selection of missile launch options from ground, air, and sea.  As has been proven before, the integration of AI with these warfighting technologies will enable and require changes in the way war is fought, the balance of power, and the geopolitical arena&#8230; so, the question, like that of the cold war, is will it become so hot that it devastates the human population resulting in another global societal collapse as Jared Diamond discusses, or will our ability to socially evolve and cooperate result in the emergence of a new ultrasociety and global order to avoid another global societal collapse and implement a new international rules based order?  Does Peter Zeihan&#8217;s demographics based analysis of US/China rivalry and withdrawal from global leadership play out?  As Turchin says, &#8220;Since we can foresee the effect of ChatGPT and its ilk on potentially creating large numbers of counter-elites, in principle, we can figure out how to manage it. The problem is that I have no confidence that our current polarized, gridlocked political system is capable of adopting the policy measures needed to defuse the tensions brought about by elite overproduction and popular immiseration. I hope I am wrong; but if not, prepare for a rough ride.&#8221;  (<a href="https://peterturchin.com/when-a-i-comes-for-the-elites/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://peterturchin.com/when-a-i-comes-for-the-elites/</a> Nov 2023 blog post)  Semper Paratus!  Gene</p>
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