Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – Three Scenarios

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Long COVID could be the next battle we have to fight and win in our struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, in this article, we seek to assess Long COVID in the framework of the fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. This will also give us possible indications regarding how Long …

The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 2 December 2021

This is the 2 December 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the Weekly. Editorial – This week, amid the rise of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant and related questions and many other signals, from Turkey, …

Assessing the “Strategic” in Strategic Surprise

Strategic foresight and early warning are grounded in the idea of preventing surprise and more specifically strategic surprise. However, if we move away from the general idea of “strategic surprise” and try to be specific, i.e. if we try to apply the concept to a specific threat or issue we try to anticipate, then the …

The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 25 November 2021

This is the 25 November 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the Weekly. Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or …

Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – The Hidden Pandemic

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) More than 110 million people have experienced or still suffer from Long COVID since the start of the pandemic (Chen Chen et al., full references and detail of calculation below). This is the number that follows from the findings of a study systematically reviewing the research done on Long COVID until …

Early Warning Systems & Indicators – 3rd Training for the ESFSI in Tunisia

At the end of October 2021, we provided our third intensive training on early warning systems & indicators, part of this year programme on “management of social conflict” of the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia. The programme is supported by the European project “Counter-terrorism in Tunisia” via CIVIPOL. The …

The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 18 November 2021

This is the 18 November 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the Weekly. Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or …

The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 11 November 2021

This is the 11 November 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). As this is Remembrance Day, this issue of the Weekly will not be edited. It will show the pieces of news and information unsorted. It will thus …

The Fifth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Lethality

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) As the global fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has now started, should we be worried about it? How lethal will it be? This article and the next will focus on direct health-related impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic fifth wave. Indeed, these effects are those that determine all others. Here, we …

The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 4 November 2021

This is the 4 November 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the Weekly. Editorial: As featured article, this week, we have the frightening E-bomb. Then the COVID-19 pandemic is coming back at the top …

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