(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: John Getchel) A movie and a thought experiment in strategic foresight The 2021 “Dune” movie by Denis Villeneuve is a deep reflexion about the future of political and strategic power (Denis Villeneuve, Dune, 2021). This movie explores the deep connections between the source and exercise of strategic power and the …
Continue reading ““Dune” – Adaptation to Climate Change as Power Strategy”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: Gerd Altmann) This brief article is an updated warning about the threat created by the Omicron variant. It is assessed with 15, 22 and 23 December 2021 information. It concerns a series of indications related to the risks of hospitalisation, to vaccination and to incubation period for the Omicron variant. …
Continue reading “Omicron Variant – “the Good, the Bad and the ‘Intriguing’” – Warning”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: Gerd Altmann) This brief article is a warning assessed over 15 to 18 December 2021 about the very serious, indeed “major, imminent threat” created by the Omicron variant (Neil Ferguson in Emily Head, Dr Sabine L. van Elsland, “Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses“, ICL …
Continue reading “Omicron Variant – “Major, Imminent Threat” Warning”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Long COVID could be the next battle we have to fight and win in our struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, in this article, we seek to assess Long COVID in the framework of the fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. This will also give us possible indications regarding how Long …
Continue reading “Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – Three Scenarios”
Towards climate civil wars? “Climate wars” will not “only” be interstate wars. In our precedent article, we saw that current conflicts are integrating climate related tensions. This process is literally transforming certain conflicts into “proto-climate wars” (Jean-Michel Valantin, “What are Climate Wars ?”, The Red Team Analysis Society, 2 November 2021). This transformation follows the …
Strategic foresight and early warning are grounded in the idea of preventing surprise and more specifically strategic surprise. However, if we move away from the general idea of “strategic surprise” and try to be specific, i.e. if we try to apply the concept to a specific threat or issue we try to anticipate, then the …
Continue reading “Assessing the “Strategic” in Strategic Surprise”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) More than 110 million people have experienced or still suffer from Long COVID since the start of the pandemic (Chen Chen et al., full references and detail of calculation below). This is the number that follows from the findings of a study systematically reviewing the research done on Long COVID until …
Continue reading “Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – The Hidden Pandemic”
At the end of October 2021, we provided our third intensive training on early warning systems & indicators, part of this year programme on “management of social conflict” of the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia. The programme is supported by the European project “Counter-terrorism in Tunisia” via CIVIPOL. The …
Continue reading “Early Warning Systems & Indicators – 3rd Training for the ESFSI in Tunisia”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) As the global fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has now started, should we be worried about it? How lethal will it be? This article and the next will focus on direct health-related impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic fifth wave. Indeed, these effects are those that determine all others. Here, we …
Continue reading “The Fifth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Lethality”
As climate change intensifies, a major issue is to understand how rapidly changing geophysics and war are intertwined. Since 2013, at the Red Team Analysis Society we study the way climate change, the military and geopolitics interact (Climate change security, The Red Team Analysis Society). Since then, things have changed dramatically. The complex relationship between …
