Creating Scenarios for the Future Archives • The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/category/how-to-foresee-and-warn/creating-scenarios-for-the-future/ Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:03:34 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://redanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-RTAS-Logo-Vectorise-Disque-Blanc-PNG-1000-x-1000-32x32.png Creating Scenarios for the Future Archives • The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/category/how-to-foresee-and-warn/creating-scenarios-for-the-future/ 32 32 128105080 Get Strategic Foresight and Warning Scenarios with AI – Initiation https://redanalysis.org/2023/04/27/get-strategic-foresight-and-warning-scenarios-with-ai-chatgpt-initiation/ https://redanalysis.org/2023/04/27/get-strategic-foresight-and-warning-scenarios-with-ai-chatgpt-initiation/#comments Thu, 27 Apr 2023 16:25:44 +0000 https://redanalysis.org/?p=36626 https://redanalysis.org/2023/04/27/get-strategic-foresight-and-warning-scenarios-with-ai-chatgpt-initiation/feed/ 1 36626 A Short FAQ on Scenarios for Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Risk Management https://redanalysis.org/2022/02/22/a-short-faq-on-scenarios/ https://redanalysis.org/2022/02/22/a-short-faq-on-scenarios/#respond Tue, 22 Feb 2022 17:35:43 +0000 https://redanalysis.org/?p=33469 Question: "What is a scenario for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management?" Answer: For strategic foresight, early warning, risk management or any anticipatory methodology, a scenario is a fictionalized narrative set at a specific time in the future. It answers a question about the future. It is grounded in a detailed analysis of this question....

Continue reading

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2022/02/22/a-short-faq-on-scenarios/feed/ 0 33469 Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid? https://redanalysis.org/2021/02/01/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points/ https://redanalysis.org/2021/02/01/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points/#respond Mon, 01 Feb 2021 15:45:00 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=24744 Continue reading "Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid?"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2021/02/01/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points/feed/ 0 24744 Scenarios to Navigate the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Possible Futures (1) https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/24/scenarios-to-navigate-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-its-possible-futures-1/ https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/24/scenarios-to-navigate-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-its-possible-futures-1/#respond Thu, 23 Jul 2020 22:05:00 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=27395 Continue reading "Scenarios to Navigate the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Possible Futures (1)"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/24/scenarios-to-navigate-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-its-possible-futures-1/feed/ 0 27395 Scenarios for the Covid-19 and Post-Covid-19 Worlds – a Bibliography https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/03/scenarios-for-covid-19-and-post-covid-19-worlds-a-bibliography/ https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/03/scenarios-for-covid-19-and-post-covid-19-worlds-a-bibliography/#comments Fri, 03 Jul 2020 15:15:51 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=27109 Continue reading "Scenarios for the Covid-19 and Post-Covid-19 Worlds – a Bibliography"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/03/scenarios-for-covid-19-and-post-covid-19-worlds-a-bibliography/feed/ 1 27109 Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic https://redanalysis.org/2020/03/13/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios/ https://redanalysis.org/2020/03/13/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios/#respond Fri, 13 Mar 2020 16:48:09 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=26031 Continue reading "Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2020/03/13/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios/feed/ 0 26031 How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War https://redanalysis.org/2019/11/15/scenarios-war/ https://redanalysis.org/2019/11/15/scenarios-war/#comments Fri, 15 Nov 2019 12:00:34 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716 Continue reading "How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2019/11/15/scenarios-war/feed/ 6 5716 Scenarios: Improving the Impact of Foresight thanks to Biases https://redanalysis.org/2019/03/18/scenarios-improving-the-impact-of-foresight-thanks-to-biases/ Mon, 18 Mar 2019 18:08:23 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=3671

Foreseeing the future, whatever the name given to the endeavour, includes two major tasks.

The first one is, of course, the analysis, the process according to which the foresight, forecast, warning, or, more broadly, anticipation is obtained.

The second one is less obvious, or rather so evident that it may be overlooked. It is, however, no less vital than analysis. We need to deliver the output of the analytical process to those who need the foresight, the decision-makers or policy-makers. Ideally, the recipients must understand that output, because they will act on it. They need to integrate the new knowledge received in the decisions they will take.*

A huge challenge runs across these tasks: biases.

We must overcome the various natural and constructed biases – systematic mental errors – that limit human understanding. This article will present first the classical way we deal with biases: we consider them – quite rightly – as “enemies” and we devote much effort to mitigate them. Then, considering the specificity of the delivery stage, this article suggests that another strategy is necessary. We need to turn our usual strategy on its head and befriend biases. In that case, scenarios become a tool of choice for an enhanced delivery of our foresight to decision-makers […]

The remaining part of this article is for our members. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.

]]> 3671 Scenario The Rise of the Renminbi – Futures of the US Dollar Supremacy https://redanalysis.org/2018/04/03/scenario-the-rise-of-the-renminbi-futures-of-the-us-dollar-supremacy-free/ Tue, 03 Apr 2018 10:18:37 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=17823 In this article, part of our series on the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we focus our attention on the scenario “The Rise of the Renminbi”, which we deem more interesting in the way it would unfold. In the previous article, we highlighted three different main lead scenarios that could potentially describe the developments that will take place in the future, “The Rise of the Renminbi” being one of them. With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading …

Continue reading “Scenario The Rise of the Renminbi – Futures of the US Dollar Supremacy”

The remaining part of this article is for our members. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.

]]> 17823 Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy https://redanalysis.org/2018/03/05/scenarios-future-us-dollar-supremacy/ Mon, 05 Mar 2018 09:16:33 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=17634 With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. We shall now outline the main lead scenarios (and eventual sub-scenarios) regarding the future of the US dollar supremacy, out of the corresponding set of scenarios covering the whole range possibilities for the future. In the next article, we shall focus our attention on the scenario we deem more interesting in the way it would …

Continue reading “Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy”

The remaining part of this article is for our members. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.

]]> 17634