Quelle que soit la façon dont on veut le voir, malgré les défaites en Syrie, en Irak, en Libye et aux Philippines, l'État islamique n'a pas disparu et restera très probablement une caractéristique de notre monde pendant un certain temps.

The regular terrorist attacks taking place throughout the world are there to remind us that to win over ideas – and the actions they prompt, a comprehensive strategy mirroring and superseding the strategy of the enemy must be designed and implemented.

D'ici là, les attaques terroristes continueront, comme le montrent les attentats d'Halloween 2017 à New York aux États-Unis et à Kaboul en Afghanistan (Gina Cherelus, Daniel Trotta, Reuters, 31 Oct 2017 ; Reuters, 31 octobre 2017).

Il est donc doublement crucial de comprendre ce qui se cache derrière ces attaques : pour éventuellement les contrer tout en les supportant au mieux tant qu'une véritable victoire n'a pas eu lieu.

Voici ce que vous devez savoir pour comprendre, faire face et éventuellement combattre les attaques terroristes de l'État islamique (avec les références appropriées, car nous sommes ici dans le domaine de la connaissance et non des opinions).

This compendium includes 11 selected articles – i.e 40733 words /  114,5 pages.

Vous pouvez lire librement ci-dessous une courte présentation de chaque article, et accéder aux articles complets en devenant un membre de la société d'analyse Red (Team) (abonnement trimestriel, semestriel ou annuel disponible).

Sur les attaques terroristes plus spécifiquement

L'impact psychologique des attaques terroristes de l'État islamique

Here we focus on the major socio-psychological consequences of terrorist attacks. We first explain the disconnection existing between direct exposure to the attack, objective threat and socio-psychological impacts, i.e. how people are impacted psychologically even though they are not in the immediate vicinity of the attack and how this phenomenon takes place. This will allow us better envisioning who can be impacted. We then turn to the more individual harmful psychological consequences of terror attacks, from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) to depression and insomnia and their impacts on businesses through impaired professional life. This will notably allow us pointing out that a crucial stakeholder for the corporate sector in terms of considering the Islamic State’s and Jihadist terrorist attacks and thus related geopolitical uncertainties is the department of human resources, which must thus be primarily involved, besides other more obvious departments such as security, risks, or sales, marketing, operations and finance. Staff in charge of exports and supplies must also become involved as the companies with whom they are dealing could be impacted by terrorist attacks. Finally, we shall turn to socio-psychological consequences with collective impacts, which have various effects on companies and de facto societies and countries, from avoidance (not doing something anymore, e.g. flying, traveling by train, visiting some countries, investing in some sectors and countries, etc.) to the rise of collectively aggressive behaviour…. en savoir plus. 4580 mots / 12 pages.

Surmonter la confusion mentale et le piège (occidental) face aux attaques terroristes islamistes

Lutter contre le terrorisme de l'État islamique à l'intérieur du pays - La troisième voie" pour pouvoir "Truly defend… and Strike Back

Ces deux articles traitent de la confusion permanente et effroyable qui règne notamment dans les pays occidentaux lorsque le terrorisme islamiste est en jeu. Au milieu du débat caricatural selon lequel nous n'aurions le choix qu'entre cacher le caractère salafiste de ces attaques terroristes parce qu'elles seraient comprises comme de l'"islamophobie", d'une part, ou nous concentrer sur l'immigration principalement comme une panacée universelle, d'autre part, le procureur français pour le terrorisme Molins nous montre la voie à suivre pour trouver une nouvelle et troisième voie. Nous devons d'abord évaluer froidement la menace avec toutes ses composantes, avant de chercher ensuite des solutions. Lutter contre le terrorisme de l'État islamique à l'intérieur du pays - La troisième voie (l'évaluation 3585 mots / 10 pages) et Truly defend… and Strike Back” (possible ways forward – 3137 words / 10 pages) are a contribution to this endeavour.

L'État islamique et les attentats terroristes : Permis de tuer

In the light of the ongoing terrorist attacks, it is crucial to understand the perspective and position of the Islamic State as far as these attacks are concerned. This is what this article does. It thus  defines the framework for the Islamic State’s – and its members’  intentions, as well as  identifies sensitive points in terms of legitimacy. From there, we may notably deduce a number of elements and factors that could be useful, in particular to intelligence services and political authorities, to screen and prioritize entities that could be, or not, possible targets, and to identify potential new threats. Conjointly, sensitive points, and discrepancies in messages, may also be used, as we shall point out at the end of the second part and in the third part below, to craft counter-psyops, counter-radicalisation and even psyops messages… Lire la suite. 3463 mots / 10 pages.

The Islamic State’s permanent all out war

The terrorist attacks of the Islamic State can only be understood if one, first, makes the effort to change one’s perspective to see the world through the eyes of the Islamic State. It is this vision that underlays the attacks. This does not mean accepting or legitimating the Islamic State. It means using good red teaming analysis, and taking the measure of the enemy … to win.

 “Guerre mondiale

Using material from the Islamic State propaganda, we address, first, doubts and denials that were aired following the Paris attack, notably in the media and general public, and which tend still to inform the general misunderstanding on the Islamic State, regarding the reality and nature of the war with the Islamic State. We then turn to the Islamic State and its Khilafah to better understand their perception of the political order and of the related entities they are creating, or had created, and finally consider a first impact of that vision and related actions, an assault on modernity, and what that means in terms of responses…. Pour en savoir plus:. 3468 mots / 10 pages.

La guerre ultime

Voici la deuxième partie de notre analyse de la vision du monde de l'État islamique et de son impact.

Nous montrons d'abord que le système de croyance de l'État islamique remet profondément en question et modifie la perception de ce qui est domestique et de ce qui est étranger, puis qu'il détruit la notion même de civils et de non-combattants. Nous tirons ensuite des conclusions sur le type de guerre qui émerge suite à la stratégie de l'Etat islamique. Weltanschauung (German philosophical concept referring to the deep underlying conception of the world held by one or many actors) – with potential tremendous impact for us in terms of vision, strategy and warfare – knowing that those findings will need to be refined and eventually revised as the war unfolds and as actors evolve and change…. en savoir plus. 4291 mots / 11 pages.

La perspective globale de l'État islamique et ses impacts

La perspective globale de l'État islamique exige que nous comprenions le combat de l'État islamique de manière globale. Elle ne se limite ni à une guerre telle qu'on la comprendrait classiquement, ni à un territoire délimité spécifique, par exemple la Syrie, l'Irak, la Libye, etc.

Un théâtre de guerre mondial

After the Winter 2015 strings of terrorist attacks, it had become even more obvious than previously that the Islamic State fights globally. This article suggests that one also needs to integrate a global geographical level to our response to correctly fight the Islamic State. First, we recall that the Islamic State and its Khilafah are inherently a global warrior polity, thus aiming at operating globally. Second we look at what we knew of the capacity of the Islamic State in November 2015 to reach out globally, and underline dynamics operating between different components of this capability. Even though the capabilities of the Islamic State have now changed and been seriously reduced, the understanding and dynamics at work are still valid and must be considered. Finally, we turn to the last element of the very capacity to act globally, the scope of the Islamic State global imprint…. Read more.  4003 words / 12 pages.

Early warning… “L'État islamique, des Philippines et de l'Indonésie au Bangladesh

This article ends the part of our series singling out risks to a strategy that would only or mainly pay attention to one theatre of war and to one dimension and focusing on the Islamic State global geographical implantation. It looks at then maybe less known cases of global outreach for the Islamic State and its Khilafah: Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the Philippines in SouthEast Asia and Bangladesh in South Asia. This article written in January 2016 constitutes an early warning for the siege of Marawi in the Philippines, which took place over the Summer and beginning of Autumn 2017, as well as for the increasing imprint of the Islamic State there, for example. … Pour en savoir plus:. 3525 mots / 10 pages.

Mais qui mène les attaques terroristes et pourquoi ? Pourquoi des citoyens asiatiques et européens rejoignent-ils l'État islamique ?

 Une menace pour le retour... mais aussi pour le séjour

We explain the risks entailed by the existence of and increase in mobilization abroad, or, more specifically, outside the territory the Islamic State rules or has conquered. This inflow of foreign fighters can be seen as a security issue for three major reasons. First, it enhances the Islamic State’s fighting power. Second, it leads to a threat to see attacks carried out at home by those foreign fighters, not only once they come back, but also if they are stopped leaving. Finally, the symbolic impact of a successful foreign mobilization interacts with the connectedness of each mobilised foreign individual to enhance the power of the Islamic State psyops and potentially intensify the first two elements of the threat…. Pour en savoir plus:. 2989 mots / 9 pages.

How and why the Islamic State attracts “foreign” fighters

"Attirer les combattants étrangers" (1ère partie)

We first present the set of Islamic State psyops “recruitment” products used, notably initially before a crackdown took place on social networks and before the Islamic State lost in Mesopotamia. We then turn to the framework for understanding established by existing research. We then focus upon two necessary elements that were identified as present in most or all fighters that were recruited: a quest for purpose and meaning, as well as a search for belonging. Those elements are at the core of a first complex around which messages and features favouring mobilization are organised and that we shall detail with the next post, which will also focus on the second complex, organised around the theme of authority, rules and exercise of liberty…. Pour en savoir plus:. 3661 mots / 10 pages.

“Foreign Fighters’ Complexes” (Part 2)

This article further refines, always using the Islamic State recruitment psyops products, the various elements identified by previous research, which we understand as organised in two complexes*, the first constellated around the core “quest for meaning and related need for belonging”, and the second around authority, rules and exercise of freedom…. Pour en savoir plus:. 4031 mots / 10,5 pages

Publié par Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Hélène LavoixPh. D. Lond (relations internationales), est la présidente-directrice générale de The Red Team Analysis Society. Elle est spécialisée dans la prospective stratégique et l'alerte pour les relations internationales et les questions de sécurité nationale et internationale. Elle s'intéresse actuellement à la guerre en Ukraine, à l'ordre international et à la montée de la Chine, au dépassement des frontières planétaires et aux relations internationales, à la méthodologie de la SF&W, à la radicalisation ainsi qu'aux nouvelles technologies et à la sécurité.

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