Ce site web est axé sur l'anticipation de toutes les questions relatives aux risques et incertitudes politiques et géopolitiques, à la sécurité nationale et internationale, aux questions de sécurité traditionnelles et non traditionnelles ou, pour utiliser une approche militaire, à la sécurité conventionnelle et non conventionnelle[1]. En d'autres termes, nous traiterons de toutes les incertitudes, risques, menaces, mais aussi opportunités, qui ont un impact sur la gouvernance et les relations internationales, des pandémies à l'intelligence artificielle en passant par les technologies perturbatrices, de l'énergie au changement climatique, de l'eau aux guerres. Cette activité peut être appelée plus spécifiquement prospective et alerte stratégique (SF&W) ou gestion des risques, même s'il existe de légères différences entre les deux. La définition que nous utilisons s'appuie sur la pratique et les recherches des experts et praticiens de longue date Fingar, Davis, Grabo et Knight.
Definition of Strategic Foresight and Warning – Risk management for strategic uncertainties
“Strategic Foresight and Warning (risk management for strategic uncertainties) is an organized and systematic process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future that aims at allowing policy-makers and decision-makers to take decisions with sufficient lead time to see those decisions implemented at best.” (Fingar, Davis, Grabo and Knight)
Broadly speaking, it is part of the field of anticipation – or approaches to the future, which also includes other perspectives and practices centred on other themes.
Le programme SF&W peut emprunter des idées et des méthodologies à ces approches, tout en les adaptant à son objectif spécifique, et c'est ce qu'il fait. Par exemple, un pays comme Singapour, avec son Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning – RAHS Programme Officequi fait partie de la Secrétariat de coordination de la sécurité nationale at the Prime Minister’s Office, uses a mix of most of those perspectives, reworks and combines them for its own needs, while creating and designing original tools, methodologies and processes. Furthermore, various actors also use different names for SF&W, or very similar approaches. It is thus important to clarify what various labels and names mean, even if borders between categories are often fuzzy.
We find, by alphabetical order (the “Early Warning System” item is under the “Warning” section):
Futures études (aussi futurologie)
Futures Studies (also futurology), practiced by futurists, have been developed since the 1960s. It has, initially, as main market for-profit organisations, i.e. companies and businesses, although it also increasingly tends to provide services to territorial collectivities and state agencies, generally in fields unrelated to security (e.g. urbanism, education, the future of work etc.). Considering the outlook of its founding fathers and related texts, it tends to be characterised by a pro-peace utopian outlook, an emphasis on human intent, a specific multi-disciplinarity focusing on economy and business, technology, some parts of sociology and anthropology, literary criticism, and philosophy. It also tends to have been influenced by post-modernism. It is most often taught in business schools or part of business programs, such as the L'école de Wharton, Turku’s Centre de recherche sur l'avenir de la Finlandeou le Université de Houston. Centre de recherche d'Hawaï pour les études prospectives semble être une exception à la règle puisqu'il fait partie du département des études politiques. Elle tend à être fortement ancrée dans une approche post-moderne.
Prévisions
Forecasting usually refers to the use of quantitative techniques, notably statistics, to approach the future. This is however not always the case and, for example, Glenn and Gordon in their exhaustive review, Méthodologie de la recherche sur l'avenir, tend to use indifferently forecasting, futures methods and foresight. Understanding forecasting as quantitative techniques seems, nevertheless, to be the most generalized and clearer meaning. It is a tool that is or may be used in any discipline, for example demographics. It is also sometimes considered as the only proper way to anticipate the future. It then tends to ignore what has been developed in other fields and the reasons for this evolution such as the complexity of the world. Many approaches to forecasting are mostly business and economics oriented, although some parts of political science – notably those dealing with elections – or more rarely parts of international relations also use forecasting. Here, we may notably refer to the work of Philip Schrodtou de la Groupe de travail sur l'instabilité politique – PITF (funded by the CIA).
Prospective
La prospective, notamment en Europe, tend à être utilisée pour des approches de l'avenir axées presque exclusivement sur la science et la technologie, les innovations et la recherche et le développement, par exemple le Plate-forme européenne de prospective which replaces the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN), but also elsewhere in the world. If foresight is meant to be used for other issues, then it is spelled out: e.g. Security Foresight.
Analyse d'horizon
Horizon Scanning is used mainly in the U.K. and in Singapore – see the post “Analyse d'horizon et surveillance pour l'anticipation” for more details.
Renseignements
For the CIA, “Reduced to its simplest terms, intelligence is knowledge and foreknowledge of the world around us—the prelude to decision and action by U.S. policymakers.” (CIA, 1999: vii). Note that Michael Warner (2002) references eighteen different definitions of “intelligence.” It is thus broader than SF&W and should ideally include it, although the SF&W function may or not be part of the intelligence system. A major difference that may be underlined between intelligence on the one hand, SF&W on the other, is that the first starts with and depends upon decision-makers or policy-makers’ requirements while the second does not (see the Cycle SF&W).
Estimation du renseignement national
In the US, “National Intelligence Estimates or NIEs “represent a coordinated and integrated analytic effort among the [US] intelligence enterprise, and are the [Intelligence Community] IC’s most authoritative written judgments concerning national security issues and estimates about the course of future events” (ODNI, 2011: 7). Les NIE sont produits par la Conseil national du renseignement (NIC). The NIC est l'héritier du Board of National Estimates créé en 1950, qui s'est transformé en National Intelligence Officers en 1973 et qui est finalement devenu le National Intelligence Council, dépendant du directeur de la Central Intelligence, en 1979. Il fait partie du ODNI, Mission Intégration (MI) dirigé par le directeur adjoint du renseignement national pour l'intégration des missions, Edward Gistaro. They, however, result from a collective effort and process. “The NIEs are typically requested by senior civilian and military policymakers, Congressional leaders and at times are initiated by the National Intelligence Council (NIC)” (National Intelligence Estimate – Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities, November 2007 – pdf). They may use or not Strategic Foresight & Warning methodologies, and usually are concerned with a medium term (up to ten years) timeframe. Most of the time NIEs are classified, however some are public and can be found in the Collection NIC (publique). For more details on the NIEs process, read, for example, Rosenbach and Peritz, “Estimations des services de renseignement nationaux,” 2009.
Évaluation du renseignement national
National Intelligence Assessments or NIAs are products such as the US Évaluation de la communauté du renseignement sur la sécurité mondiale de l'eau (février 2012)ou le rapport 2008 Évaluation du renseignement national sur les implications du changement climatique mondial pour la sécurité nationale à l'horizon 2030. In the words of Tom Fingar, former chairman of the NIC, “The short explanation of the difference between an NIA and the better-known National Intelligence Estimate or NIE is that an NIA addresses subjects that are so far in the future or on which there is so little intelligence that they are more like extended think pieces than estimative analysis. NIAs rely more on carefully articulated assumptions than on established fact.” (Fingar, 2009: 8). Both the NIEs and NIAs emphasize and rate the confidence they have in their own judgements and assessments, which is rarely done elsewhere and should be widely adopted.
La Prospective
La Prospective is the French equivalent, broadly speaking, for both futures studies approaches and strategic foresight (or Strategic Futures). We can notably refer to the work done by Futuriblesqui se concentre sur le futurisme pour les entreprises, ainsi que sur l'enseignement dispensé à l CNAMnotamment axée sur l'innovation.
Gestion des risques
Gestion des risques
Risk Management (initially known as risk analysis[2]) est une approche de l'avenir qui a été développée par le secteur privé dans le domaine de l'ingénierie, de l'industrie, des finances et des évaluations actuarielles. Elle a commencé à être de plus en plus à la mode dans les années 1990. L'Organisation internationale de normalisation (ISO) la codifie aujourd'hui dans la famille ISO 31000 sous le label de la gestion des risques.[3] Risk management remains primarily a tool of the private sector with its specific needs and priorities, however those approaches are now widely referred to, incorporated and used within governments. Risk management includes monitoring and surveillance, as intelligence, strategic warning and SF&W.
Évaluation des risques
Risk Assessment is, as defined in risk management, the overall process of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. It tends also to be used in a looser sense, as in Singapore RAHS, or in the US DIA five-year plan, when the latter mentions that it will “Provide strategic warning and integrated risk assessment” (p.3).
Le risque politique
Political risk is most often practiced by many consultancies as a “classical” analysis of the political conditions in a country without much methodology, on the contrary from what should be done.
Consultancies dealing with risk and political risk quite often actually deal with “risks to infrastructures” and direct operational risks. Here we are more in the area of tactical risks and daily collection of intelligence to prevent, for example, terrorist or criminal attacks on offices or exploitation sites.
Gouvernance des risques
La gouvernance du risque est le label utilisé par la L'OCDE se penche sur la gestion des risques. Bien qu'ils aient commencé par se concentrer sur les risques économiques et infrastructurels, ils abordent maintenant risque tous risques. (Voir également la section Gestion stratégique des crises ci-dessous).
Science
Although this tends to be forgotten in “anticipation circles” – or refused by part of the academia in the case of social sciences for various reasons – the first discipline to deal with the future is science as it can qualify as such only if it has descriptive, explanatory and predictive power (of course with all the necessary and obvious specifications that must be added to the word “prediction,” considering notably complexity science and the need to forget the 100% crystal ball type of prediction for the more realistic probabilistic approach).
Analyse stratégique
Strategic Analysis is a term that can be used by various institutions, for example by the Unité de sensibilisation à la situation de la police de sécurité finlandaise (SUPO), and is defined by them as a “general assessment of changes in the operational environment, incidents, phenomena or threats” for decision-makers.” We find it also mentioned in the DIA five-year plan as part of the strategic warning responsibilities. It can thus be seen as a part of SF&W.
Anticipation stratégique
Strategic Anticipation is a loose term that can be used to cover all strategic activities related to the future.
Prospective stratégique
La prospective stratégique couvre l'anticipation stratégique pour les questions stratégiques conventionnelles et non conventionnelles comme nous le faisons, mais sans la composante d'alerte. Un exemple est le Institut Clingendaelun important groupe de réflexion sur les relations internationales et la sécurité utilise le terme Prospective stratégique pour son département et sa recherche correspondants.
Gestion stratégique des crises
La gestion stratégique des crises est l'étiquette utilisée par un département de la section de la gouvernance des risques de l'OCDE. Il cherche à traiter la gestion des crises au fur et à mesure qu'elles se produisent, mais pas seulement. Il couvre également exactement le même processus et les mêmes questions que celui que nous abordons ici, mais en le faisant au moment où la crise s'est produite ou pendant qu'elle se produit. Par conséquent, il tient compte de la tendance croissante des responsables politiques et des décideurs à attendre que la crise ait frappé pour commencer à penser à l'anticipation. Nous avons été fiers de prononcer l'un des deux discours principaux de leur atelier de 2015 s'est concentré plus particulièrement sur l'anticipation
Futurs stratégiques
Strategic Futures is a term that is used in the American intelligence system, for example with the Strategic Futures Group of the NIC. Prior to 2011 the Strategic Futures Group was named the Long Range Analysis unit. It contributes, besides the National Intelligence Offices, to the overall process that produces the Série Tendances mondiales du NIC (dernières tendances mondiales : Le paradoxe du progrès). Global Trends utilise toutes les méthodologies disponibles en fonction des besoins.
Strategic Futures peut être considéré comme synonyme de prospective stratégique, dans sa dimension exploratoire. Il peut également intégrer une dimension d'alerte, et dans ce cas, serait équivalent à la SF&W. En effet, il est intéressant de noter que le National Intelligence Council avait l'habitude d'avoir parmi ses agents de renseignement nationaux un agent de renseignement national pour l'alerte (comme le montre ici la version en cache de son site web public du 22 août 2010 - Ce bureau avait été créé par le Directeur du renseignement central Directive NO. 1/5, en vigueur le 23 mai 1979). Cet Office a ensuite disparu (comparer par exemple avec version en cache pour le 10 avril 2011), tandis que l'unité d'analyse à long terme a été rebaptisée en groupe de prospective stratégique.
Alerte stratégique
If the National Office for Warning disappeared from the NIC, Strategic Warning (also known as Indications and Warning), and which aims at avoiding surprises, remains nonetheless crucial within the US Intelligence system, as reasserted notably by the DIA in the Plan 2012-2017 (lire également Pellerin, DoD News, juillet 2012). The strategic warning mission of the DIA was reasserted in June 2018 in “L'Agence de renseignement de la défense : un avertissement pour le 21e siècle” (DoD News). Strategic warning covers notably “necessary collection and forward-looking analytic methods and techniques, … to ensure warning is conveyed accurately and in a timely manner.” (p. 6). It is very similar if not identical to SF&W, but emphasises the warning aspect.
Dans la rubrique "Avertissement", on trouve également l'appellation qui est promue notamment par l'Union européenne, comme Systèmes d'alerte précoce (voir 2011 Council Conclusions on Conflict Prevention building on the Treaty of Lisbon – Article 21c), and which tends to be focused essentially on conflict prevention. Note that the four steps of the process (1/ scan for high risk and deteriorating situations, 2/identify ‘at risk’ countries that require further EU analysis and action, 3/analysis including setting explicit objectives in preparation for early preventive or peacebuilding actions, 4/monitor the resulting actions in terms of impact on conflicts (see Fiche d'information de l'UE sur les SAP), on the contrary from what is promoted in intelligence notably for ethical reasons including those relative to the democratic mandate held only by policy-makers (e.g. Fingar, Lecture 3, pp. 1-2, 6-7) quite largely integrate early responses within its system. meanwhile, the available types of actions are pre-determined and consist of “preventive or peacebuilding” actions, although the broad appellation may leave some leeway in terms of establishing an efficient strategy then operationalisation of the answer. Also contrary to other approaches, EWS deal exclusively with conflict as issue.
The very specificities of the European Union in terms of its evolving institutions, the way decisions are taken and the competences (see Compétences de l'UE) and prerogatives of each of its institutions according to areas, has strong influences on the approach promoted for Early Warning Systems. Notably the specificity of the Common Foreign and Security Policy – CFSP (see Compétences spéciales de l'UE) is highly constraining on the design and then practice of early warning. Finally, the possibility to see the CFSP evolve towards more common defence notably, considering changes in the EU and international context – post Brexit, election of U.S. President Trump, election of France staunch EU supporter President Macron – (e.g. Paul Taylor, “Le coup de foudre de Merkel pour la défense européenne“, 30 May 2017, Politico), is highly likely to lead to changes in the EU approach to “Early Warning”.
Le document de novembre 2017 sur le SAP de l'UE sur les conflits explique l'objectif et le processus : EU conflict Early Warning System: Objectives, Process and Guidance for Implementation – 2017
Intelligence stratégique
Strategic Intelligence is a widely used but rarely defined term that Heidenrich (2007) describes as “that intelligence necessary to create and implement a strategy, typically a grand strategy, what officialdom calls a national strategy. A strategy is not really a plan but the logic driving a plan.” According to the way intelligence and security are understood, strategic intelligence and strategic foresight, or rather in this case strategic foresight and warning will more or less largely intersect; to the least they will need each other.
1] "Non conventionnel", du point de vue du ministère de la défense, désigne les conditions et les contingences de sécurité nationale qui sont pertinentes pour la défense mais pas nécessairement spécifiques à la défense. Les défis de sécurité non conventionnels se situent en grande partie en dehors du domaine des combats de guerre traditionnels. Ils sont couramment d'origine et de caractère non militaire". Nathan Freier, Connues Inconnues : Les "chocs stratégiques" non conventionnels dans le développement de la stratégie de défense (Carlisle, PA : Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute and Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2008), p.3.
[2] Note that the Société pour l'analyse des risques considère l'évaluation et la gestion des risques comme faisant partie de l'analyse des risques.
[3] The ISO31000 was first published as a standard in November 2009. The Guide ISO 73:2009 définit les termes et le vocabulaire utilisés dans la gestion des risques. Une nouvelle version des lignes directrices, ISO 31000:2018, Management du risque - Lignes directricesa été publié en février 2018. Les autres documents de l'ISO relatifs à la gestion des risques restent inchangés.
Bibliographie sélectionnée
Central Intelligence Agency (Office of Public Affairs), A Consumer’s Guide to Intelligence, (Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 1999).
Davis, Jack "Alerte stratégique : Si la surprise est inévitable, quel rôle pour l'analyse ? Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis, Occasional Papers, Vol.2, Number 1 https://www.cia.gov/library/kent-center-occasional-papers/vol2no1.htm;
Fingar, Thomas, ”Myths, Fears, and Expectations,” Payne Distinguished Lecture Series 2009 Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security, Lecture 1, FSI Stanford, série de conférences de la CISAC, 21 octobre 2009 et 11 mars 2009.
Fingar, Thomas, “Anticipating Opportunities: Using Intelligence to Shape the Future,” Payne Distinguished Lecture Series 2009 Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security, Lecture 3, FSI Stanford, série de conférences de la CISAC, 21 octobre 2009.
Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warningsous la direction de Jan Goldman (Lanham MD : University Press of America, mai 2004).
Glenn Jerome C. and Theodore J. Gordon, Ed; Le Projet du Millénaire : Futures Méthodologie de recherche, Version 3.0, 2009.
Heidenrich, John G. “The State of Strategic Intelligence”, Etudes dans le domaine du renseignement, vol51 no2, 2007.
Chevalier, Kenneth “Centré sur la prévoyance : Un entretien avec l'officier de renseignement national américain pour l'alerteSeptembre 2009, McKinsey Quarterly.
Pellerin, Cheryl, DIA Five-Year Plan Updates Strategic Warning Mission, American Forces Press Service, WASHINGTON, July 18, 2012.
Rosenbach, Eric and Aki J. Peritz, “National Intelligence Estimates”, Memo in report Confrontation or Collaboration? Congress and the Intelligence Community, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, July 2009.
Schrodt, Philip A., “Prévisions et éventualités : De la méthodologie à la politique,” Paper presented at the theme panel “Political Utility and Fundamental Research: The Problem of Pasteur’s Quadrant” at the Réunions de l'Association américaine de science politique, Boston, 29 August – 1 September 2002.
Warner, Michael, "Wanted : A Definition of "Intelligence", Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 46, No. 3, 2002.
Image en vedette : Morris (Sgt), No 5 Army Film & Photographic UnitPost-Work : Utilisateur : W.wolny / Domaine public