https://redanalysis.org/fr/2020/07/03/scenarios-pour-covid-19-et-post-covid-19-mondes-une-bibliographie/ Prospective stratégique et alerte précoce ･ Risques politiques et géopolitiques · Scénarios Tue, 03 Sep 2024 07:37:00 +0000 toutes les heures 1 https://redanalysis.org/fr/2020/07/03/scenarios-pour-covid-19-et-post-covid-19-mondes-une-bibliographie/#comment-34247 Tue, 03 Sep 2024 07:37:00 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=27109#comment-34247 […] At the moment, as Bruno Tertrais has put it, ‘we’re still at the stage in which everyone sees their views and assumptions as being confirmed by the corona crisis. This is true in the West and East, on the left and on the right’. This is understandable and projections based on reliable data are still scarce. The time-horizon of analysis generally does not go beyond 2022-23 (for example, the IMF and OECD Economic Outlooks). So the starting-point of any reflection is uncertain: What is the true death toll of the pandemic? How serious will the second wave be, and will there be a third? Which of the (possibly already) observable economic, societal, political and geopolitical consequences of the crisis will have a serious and long-lasting impact? Many strategic foresight teams, for example at the Atlantic Council, have nevertheless started to draw up ‘post Covid-19 scenarios’, which have been usefully listed by the OECD. […]

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