{"id":44152,"date":"2026-06-17T10:01:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T08:01:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?page_id=44152"},"modified":"2026-09-28T11:57:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T09:57:10","slug":"geopolitique-du-lithium-2040-huit-scenarios-en-amont","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/geopolitics-lithium-2040-eight-scenarios-upstream\/","title":{"rendered":"La g\u00e9opolitique du lithium en 2040 \u2013 Huit sc\u00e9narios pour la cha\u00eene d'approvisionnement en amont"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<style data-wp-block-html=\"css\">\n.entry .entry-header {\ndisplay:none;\n}\n\n\/* \u2500\u2500 Reset scoped to landing page only \u2500\u2500 *\/\n.rtas-lp *, .rtas-lp *::before, .rtas-lp *::after {\n  box-sizing: border-box; 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text-decoration: none; }\n.rtas-lp .btn-buy-ghost          { background: transparent; color: var(--text); border: 1px solid var(--faint); padding: 0.72rem; font-size: 13px; font-family: var(--sans); cursor: pointer; text-align: center; width: 100%; transition: border-color 0.15s; display: block; letter-spacing: 0.02em; }\n.rtas-lp .btn-buy-ghost:hover    { border-color: var(--blue); text-decoration: none; }\n.rtas-lp .pricing-note           { font-size: 11.5px; color: var(--muted); text-align: center; margin-top: 1.2rem; line-height: 1.7; }\n\n.rtas-lp .btn-price {\n  white-space: nowrap;\n  display: block;\n  font-size: 0.85em;\n  opacity: 0.85;\n  margin-top: 2px;\n}\n\n\/* \u2500\u2500 Final CTA \u2500\u2500 *\/\n.rtas-lp .final-cta              { text-align: center; padding: 6rem 0; border-bottom: none; }\n.rtas-lp .final-cta h2           { margin-bottom: 0.8rem; }\n.rtas-lp .final-cta p            { color: var(--muted); margin-bottom: 2rem; max-width: 480px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; }\n\n\/* \u2500\u2500 Footer \u2500\u2500 *\/\n.rtas-lp footer                  { padding: 2rem 0; border-top: 1px solid var(--faint); text-align: center; font-size: 11.5px; color: var(--muted); }\n.rtas-lp footer a                { color: var(--muted); }\n.rtas-lp footer a:hover          { color: var(--blue); }\n\n\/* \u2500\u2500 Responsive \u2500\u2500 *\/\n@media (max-width: 700px) {\n  .rtas-lp .hero-inner    { grid-template-columns: 1fr; gap: 2.5rem; }\n  .rtas-lp .hero-cover    { max-width: 280px; margin: 0 auto; }\n  .rtas-lp .author-block  { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }\n  .rtas-lp .hero          { padding: 3.5rem 0 3rem; }\n  .rtas-lp section        { padding: 3.5rem 0; }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"rtas-lp\">\n\n<!-- HERO -->\n<div class=\"hero\">\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"hero-inner\">\n\n      <div>\n        <div class=\"hero-eyebrow\">Nouveau rapport \u00b7 Juin 2026<\/div>\n        <h1>G\u00e9opolitique du lithium \u00e0 l'horizon 2040 :<br><em>Huit sc\u00e9narios pour<br>la fili\u00e8re amont<\/em><\/h1>\n        <p class=\"hero-sub\">Le premier ensemble de sc\u00e9narios s'appuie sur un mod\u00e8le causal rigoureux comprenant 383 variables et 1 528 relations \u2014 un cadre structur\u00e9 permettant d'appr\u00e9hender les incertitudes g\u00e9opolitiques jusqu'en 2040.<\/p>\n\n        <div class=\"hero-stats\">\n          <div class=\"stat\"><span class=\"stat-n\">8<\/span><span class=\"stat-l\">Sc\u00e9narios<\/span><\/div>\n          <div class=\"stat\"><span class=\"stat-n\">383<\/span><span class=\"stat-l\">N\u0153uds de mod\u00e8le<\/span><\/div>\n          <div class=\"stat\"><span class=\"stat-n\">69<sup>+<\/sup><\/span><span class=\"stat-l\">Pages<\/span><\/div>\n          <div class=\"stat\"><span class=\"stat-n\">2040<\/span><span class=\"stat-l\">Horizon<\/span><\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\n        <div class=\"hero-ctas\">\n          <a href=\"#pricing\" class=\"btn-primary\">Consultez les tarifs et passez commande<\/a>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/demande-dinformations-sur-la-geopolitique-du-lithium-a-lhorizon-2040\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"btn-ghost\">Demander un \u00e9chantillon<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"hero-cover\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Geopolitics-for-Lithium-2040-cover-scaled.png\" alt=\"La g\u00e9opolitique du lithium en 2040 \u2014 Couverture du rapport par Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\">\n        <p class=\"cover-caption\">Couverture \u00a9 Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli 2026 \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/jdlavoixcarli.com\" target=\"_blank\">jdlavoixcarli.com<\/a><\/p>\n      <\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- THE BLIND SPOT -->\n<section>\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"section-eyebrow\">Le probl\u00e8me<\/div>\n    <h2>La plupart des rapports \u00e9voquent la g\u00e9opolitique.<br>Puis ils s'arr\u00eatent.<\/h2>\n    <div class=\"blindspot\">\n      <p class=\"blindspot-quote\" style=\"font-size:1.2rem;\">\u201c La plupart des rapports, \u00e9tudes de march\u00e9 et sc\u00e9narios consacr\u00e9s au lithium soulignent l\u2019importance cruciale de la g\u00e9opolitique pour l\u2019avenir de la cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement. Pourtant, une fois ce point \u00e9tabli, ils se concentrent sur leur propre perspective. Au mieux, ils \u00e9voquent les r\u00e9glementations, les sanctions, les taxes et parfois les diff\u00e9rends commerciaux \u2014 ce qui est loin de r\u00e9sumer la politique internationale. \u201d<\/p>\n      <p>Il en r\u00e9sulte un angle mort structurel au c\u0153ur de toute strat\u00e9gie li\u00e9e au lithium. Ce rapport comble cette lacune.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n    <p style=\"color:var(--muted); max-width:660px; font-size:0.93rem;\">\n      Cet ensemble de sc\u00e9narios r\u00e9pond \u00e0 la seule question rest\u00e9e sans r\u00e9ponse : <strong style=\"color:var(--text);\">Quelles pourraient \u00eatre les perspectives g\u00e9opolitiques de la cha\u00eene d'approvisionnement en lithium en amont d'ici 2040 ?<\/strong> Il vient compl\u00e9ter \u2014 sans faire double emploi \u2014 vos analyses techniques et de march\u00e9 existantes.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<!-- 8 SCENARIOS -->\n<section>\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"section-eyebrow\">Les sc\u00e9narios<\/div>\n    <h2>Huit avenirs possibles.<br>Un cadre coh\u00e9rent.<\/h2>\n    <p style=\"color:var(--muted); max-width:640px; margin-bottom:0.5rem; font-size:0.93rem;\">Chaque sc\u00e9nario est d\u00e9fini par une combinaison unique de trois variables g\u00e9opolitiques essentielles, couvrant l'ensemble des perspectives d'avenir possibles. Chacun d'entre eux est illustr\u00e9 par une \u0153uvre originale de <a href=\"https:\/\/jdlavoixcarli.com\">Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n    <div class=\"scenario-grid\">\n\n      <div class=\"scenario-card sc-blue\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\">01<\/span>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"scenario-img\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/RTAS-Lithium-scenario-Pax-Sinica-scaled.png\" alt=\"Illustration de \u00ab Pax Sinica \u00bb\">\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\">Une commande men\u00e9e par la Chine<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\">Pax Sinica<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\">Les pays et les entreprises qui ont besoin de lithium doivent d\u00e9sormais se plier aux r\u00e8gles impos\u00e9es par P\u00e9kin. \u00cates-vous pr\u00eat \u00e0 op\u00e9rer dans ce cadre ? Article complet accompagn\u00e9 d'\u00e9tudes de cas r\u00e9gionales.<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"scenario-card sc-red\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\">02<\/span>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"scenario-img\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/RTAS-Lithium-scenario-Hobbesian-World-scaled.png\" alt=\"Illustration intitul\u00e9e \u00ab Un monde hobbesien \u00bb\">\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\">La force fait \u00e0 nouveau loi<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\">Un monde hobbesien<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\">La loi du plus fort. Les pays et les entreprises sont confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des choix difficiles, pris entre le marteau et l'enclume. Comment votre cha\u00eene d'approvisionnement peut-elle y survivre ? Un compte rendu complet accompagn\u00e9 d'\u00e9tudes de cas r\u00e9gionales.<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"scenario-card sc-gold\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\">03<\/span>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"scenario-img\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/RTAS-Lithium-scenario-Hermit-Kingdom-scaled.png\" alt=\"Illustration : \u00ab La Chine, un nouveau royaume ermite \u00bb\">\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\">Retrait de la Chine<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\">La Chine, un nouveau royaume ermite<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\">L'offre mondiale \u00e9volue \u00e0 mesure que P\u00e9kin se replie sur lui-m\u00eame. Qui comble ce vide ?<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"scenario-card sc-steel\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\">04<\/span>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"scenario-img\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/RTAS-Lithium-Scenario-Cold-War-scaled.png\" alt=\"Illustration \u00ab Guerre froide 3.0 \u00bb\">\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\">Confrontation bipolaire<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\">La Guerre froide 3.0<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\">Une dualit\u00e9 conflictuelle et structur\u00e9e. Le choix d'un camp devient votre principale contrainte strat\u00e9gique.<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"scenario-card sc-crimson\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\">05<\/span>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"scenario-img\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/RTAS-Lithium-Scenario-Pax-Americana-scaled.png\" alt=\"Une nouvelle illustration de la \u00ab Pax Americana \u00bb\">\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\">Domination am\u00e9ricaine<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\">Une nouvelle \u00ab Pax Americana \u00bb<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\">Les \u00c9tats-Unis r\u00e9affirment leur leadership mondial et d\u00e9finissent les r\u00e8gles du jeu en mati\u00e8re de minerais strat\u00e9giques selon leurs propres conditions. Quelles en sont les cons\u00e9quences pour votre acc\u00e8s au lithium ?<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"scenario-card sc-amber\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\">06<\/span>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"scenario-img\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/RTAS-Lithium-Scenario-Multipolar-World-scaled.png\" alt=\"Illustration de la v\u00e9ritable multipolarit\u00e9\">\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\">Commande fragment\u00e9e<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\">Une v\u00e9ritable multipolarit\u00e9<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\">Plusieurs puissances en concurrence, aucune r\u00e8gle commune. Un comportement agressif et impr\u00e9visible. Un risque op\u00e9rationnel \u00e9lev\u00e9. \u00cates-vous capable d'op\u00e9rer dans un monde d\u00e9pourvu d'h\u00e9g\u00e9monie dominante ?<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"scenario-card sc-teal\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\">07<\/span>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"scenario-img\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/RTAS-Lithium-Scenario-Be-Careful-scaled.png\" alt=\"Illustration \u00ab Attention \u00e0 ce que vous souhaitez \u00bb\">\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\">La Chine sous pression<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\">Faites attention \u00e0 ce que vous souhaitez<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\">La Chine est contrainte de d\u00e9fendre les r\u00e8gles multilat\u00e9rales \u2014 et de s'y conformer. Votre cha\u00eene d'approvisionnement en lithium en amont est-elle conforme \u00e0 ces r\u00e8gles ?<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"scenario-card sc-green\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\">08<\/span>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"scenario-img\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/RTAS-Lithium-scenario-Onu-3.0-scaled.png\" alt=\"Illustration \u00ab UN 3.0 \u00bb\">\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\">ONU 3.0<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\">ONU 3.0<\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\">Un cadre international de coop\u00e9ration renouvel\u00e9. C'est le sc\u00e9nario le plus optimiste\u2026 mais constitue-t-il une base r\u00e9aliste pour vos d\u00e9penses d'investissement ?<\/div>\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n<div class=\"scenario-card sc-black\">\n        <span class=\"scenario-num\"><\/span>\n        <div class=\"scenario-desc\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-bar\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"scenario-body\">\n          <div class=\"scenario-tag\"><\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-name\"><\/div>\n          <div class=\"scenario-desc\"><\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n    <p style=\"font-size:0.83rem; color:var(--muted);\">Sc\u00e9narios <em>Pax Sinica<\/em> et <em>Un monde hobbesien<\/em> sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s sous la forme d'un r\u00e9cit d\u00e9taill\u00e9. Les autres sc\u00e9narios se pr\u00e9sentent sous la forme d'un r\u00e9cit structur\u00e9. Ces huit sc\u00e9narios ont tous des implications strat\u00e9giques profondes pour les gouvernements et les entreprises.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<!-- METHODOLOGY -->\n<section>\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"section-eyebrow\">La m\u00e9thodologie<\/div>\n    <h2>Con\u00e7u pour \u00eatre rigoureux.<br>Tra\u00e7abilit\u00e9 \u00e0 chaque \u00e9tape.<\/h2>\n\n    <div class=\"method-grid\">\n      <div class=\"method-cell\"><span class=\"method-n\">383<\/span><span class=\"method-l\">N\u0153uds de mod\u00e8le<\/span><\/div>\n      <div class=\"method-cell\"><span class=\"method-n\">1,528<\/span><span class=\"method-l\">Ar\u00eates causales<\/span><\/div>\n      <div class=\"method-cell\"><span class=\"method-n\">3<\/span><span class=\"method-l\">Variables critiques<\/span><\/div>\n      <div class=\"method-cell\"><span class=\"method-n\">16<sup>pp<\/sup><\/span><span class=\"method-l\">Bibliographie<\/span><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p class=\"method-text\">L'ensemble de sc\u00e9narios a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9labor\u00e9 \u00e0 partir d'un graphe de connaissances causales portant sur la concurrence mondiale autour des min\u00e9raux critiques, puis affin\u00e9 pour le lithium \u2014 ce qui a donn\u00e9 lieu \u00e0 un mod\u00e8le comportant 383 n\u0153uds et 1 528 ar\u00eates. Une analyse structurelle (Godet, r\u00e9vis\u00e9e) a \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9e, enrichie de mesures de centralit\u00e9 du r\u00e9seau afin d\u2019identifier, de mani\u00e8re objective, les variables qui influencent le plus le changement syst\u00e9mique.<\/p>\n    <p class=\"method-text\">Les trois variables essentielles qui structurent les huit sc\u00e9narios \u2013 ainsi que les deux variables cl\u00e9s pour chaque pays \u2013 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9es \u00e0 l'aide de ce mod\u00e8le, et non sur la base de l'intuition ou d'une convention r\u00e9dactionnelle. Chaque variable pr\u00e9sente deux \u00e9tats extr\u00eames, ce qui donne lieu \u00e0 huit combinaisons de sc\u00e9narios couvrant l'ensemble des futurs possibles.<\/p>\n\n    <div class=\"method-note\">\n      <strong>Note technique :<\/strong> Graphique cr\u00e9\u00e9 et analys\u00e9 \u00e0 l'aide de Gephi (logiciel open source de visualisation et d'analyse de graphes et de r\u00e9seaux). Les donn\u00e9es respectent les conventions de l'AIE : teneur en lithium, tonnes m\u00e9triques. Bibliographie compl\u00e8te (16 pages) incluse dans le rapport.\n    <\/div>\n\n    <div class=\"no-ai\">\n      <div class=\"no-ai-icon\">Pas d'IA<\/div>\n      <div class=\"no-ai-text\"><strong>Ce rapport ne contient aucune analyse g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e par l'IA.<\/strong> Chaque sc\u00e9nario, chaque lien de causalit\u00e9, chaque implication strat\u00e9gique a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9labor\u00e9 par un analyste disposant de 30 ans d\u2019exp\u00e9rience. En 2026, il s\u2019agit l\u00e0 d\u2019un \u00e9l\u00e9ment diff\u00e9renciateur d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9 et v\u00e9rifiable, dont la tra\u00e7abilit\u00e9 est assur\u00e9e par la bibliographie compl\u00e8te et la m\u00e9thodologie.<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<!-- WHAT'S INSIDE -->\n<section>\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"section-eyebrow\">Contenu<\/div>\n    <h2>Ce que vous recevez.<\/h2>\n    <ul class=\"toc-list\">\n      <li class=\"toc-item\">\n        <span class=\"toc-num\">Chap. 1<\/span>\n        <div><div class=\"toc-title\">Sc\u00e9narios exploitables et leurs caract\u00e9ristiques<\/div><div class=\"toc-sub\">Qu'est-ce qu'un sc\u00e9nario ? Pourquoi les r\u00e9cits sont-ils importants ? Pourquoi la repr\u00e9sentation du \u00ab c\u00f4ne des possibilit\u00e9s \u00bb est-elle essentielle \u00e0 la planification strat\u00e9gique ?.<\/div><\/div>\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"toc-item\">\n        <span class=\"toc-num\">Chap. 2<\/span>\n        <div><div class=\"toc-title\">La logique du sc\u00e9nario \u00ab lithium \u00bb<\/div><div class=\"toc-sub\">Comment le graphe de connaissances causales a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9labor\u00e9, les trois variables syst\u00e9miques critiques \u2013 ainsi que les deux variables cl\u00e9s suivantes pour chaque pays, et la logique structurelle qui sous-tend l'ensemble des huit sc\u00e9narios.<\/div><\/div>\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"toc-item\">\n        <span class=\"toc-num\">Chap. 3<\/span>\n        <div><div class=\"toc-title\">Les huit sc\u00e9narios<\/div><div class=\"toc-sub\">\u00ab Pax Sinica \u00bb et \u00ab Un monde hobbesien \u00bb, pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re narrative et d\u00e9taill\u00e9e, avec un accent particulier sur certaines r\u00e9gions. Six sc\u00e9narios suppl\u00e9mentaires pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s sous forme structur\u00e9e.<\/div><\/div>\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"toc-item\">\n        <span class=\"toc-num\">Ccl.<\/span>\n        <div><div class=\"toc-title\">Facteurs impr\u00e9visibles, indicateurs et orientations strat\u00e9giques<\/div><div class=\"toc-sub\">Cinq \u00e9v\u00e9nements impr\u00e9visibles. Des recommandations concr\u00e8tes \u00e0 l'intention des pouvoirs publics et des entreprises. \u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s et indicateurs disponibles sur demande.<\/div><\/div>\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"toc-item\">\n        <span class=\"toc-num\">App.<\/span>\n        <div><div class=\"toc-title\">Annexes<\/div><div class=\"toc-sub\">Sc\u00e9narios de l'AIE (cadre de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence) \u00b7 Bibliographie et sources \u2014 16 pages de r\u00e9f\u00e9rences issues de publications \u00e9valu\u00e9es par des pairs, de sources primaires, institutionnelles, d'entreprises et sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9es.<\/div><\/div>\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p style=\"font-size:0.83rem; color:var(--muted);\">69 pages + annexes. Fournit au format PDF haute r\u00e9solution.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<!-- AUDIENCE -->\n<section>\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"section-eyebrow\">Public<\/div>\n    <h2>\u00c0 qui ce rapport est-il destin\u00e9 ?.<\/h2>\n    <div class=\"audience-grid\">\n      <div class=\"audience-card\">\n        <div class=\"audience-mark\">\u25ed<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-title\">Entreprises mini\u00e8res et raffineries<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-desc\">Soumettez vos d\u00e9cisions d'investissement \u00e0 des tests de r\u00e9sistance pour chaque sc\u00e9nario. Identifiez les points de d\u00e9faillance uniques avant qu'ils ne se concr\u00e9tisent.<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"audience-card\">\n        <div class=\"audience-mark\">\u25c8<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-title\">Fournisseurs de technologies et \u00e9quipementiers<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-desc\">\u00c9laborer des strat\u00e9gies d'approvisionnement qui restent viables dans tous les sc\u00e9narios g\u00e9opolitiques envisageables d'ici 2040.<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"audience-card\">\n        <div class=\"audience-mark\">\u25c9<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-title\">Financiers et gestionnaires de fonds<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-desc\">Int\u00e9grez le risque g\u00e9opolitique dans vos positions li\u00e9es au lithium. \u00c9valuez les sc\u00e9narios susceptibles de menacer ou de favoriser les rendements de votre portefeuille.<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"audience-card\">\n        <div class=\"audience-mark\">\u25a3<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-title\">Consultants en strat\u00e9gie<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-desc\">Une base analytique rigoureuse et pouvant faire l'objet de citations pour les missions de conseil en g\u00e9opolitique \u2014 sans avoir \u00e0 construire le mod\u00e8le \u00e0 partir de z\u00e9ro.<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"audience-card\">\n        <div class=\"audience-mark\">\u25ce<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-title\">Strat\u00e8ges gouvernementaux<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-desc\">Soumettez votre strat\u00e9gie nationale en mati\u00e8re de lithium \u00e0 des tests de r\u00e9sistance. \u00c9laborez des plans d'urgence. Appuyez la diplomatie relative aux minerais essentiels.<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"audience-card\">\n        <div class=\"audience-mark\">\u25c7<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-title\">Secteurs interm\u00e9diaire et aval<\/div>\n        <div class=\"audience-desc\">Anticipez les conditions en amont qui pourraient entraver ou faciliter vos op\u00e9rations \u2014 avant m\u00eame qu\u2019elles ne se produisent.<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<!-- AUTHOR -->\n<section>\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"section-eyebrow\">L'analyste<\/div>\n    <h2>Une r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en la mati\u00e8re.<\/h2>\n    <div class=\"author-block\">\n      <div class=\"author-avatar\">HL<\/div>\n      <div>\n        <div class=\"author-name\">Dr H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix<\/div>\n        <div class=\"author-role\">Fondateur et pr\u00e9sident de The Red Team Analysis Society<\/div>\n        <p class=\"author-bio\">Sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 depuis plus de 30 ans dans les relations internationales, l\u2019analyse g\u00e9opolitique et politique, ainsi que la strat\u00e9gie. A mis en pratique pendant 20 ans des m\u00e9thodes de prospective strat\u00e9gique et d\u2019alerte pr\u00e9coce, notamment dans le cadre de collaborations avec des hauts fonctionnaires, des services de renseignement nationaux (GFF soutenu par les \u00c9tats-Unis, INR des \u00c9tats-Unis, le responsable am\u00e9ricain du renseignement national charg\u00e9 de l\u2019alerte, le DOE am\u00e9ricain, le SGDSN fran\u00e7ais, le minist\u00e8re de l\u2019Int\u00e9rieur tunisien et les institutions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 jordaniennes), l\u2019OCDE, la Commission europ\u00e9enne et le Forum \u00e9conomique mondial. Titulaire d\u2019un doctorat et d\u2019un master de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 de Londres (SOAS), ainsi que d\u2019un master en finance (France, ISC). Fondateur de RTAS en 2013.<\/p>\n        <div class=\"pills\">\n          <span class=\"pill\">Doctorat \u00b7 Universit\u00e9 de Londres, SOAS<\/span>\n          <span class=\"pill\">2\u00d7 master<\/span>\n          <span class=\"pill\">30 ans de relations internationales<\/span>\n          <span class=\"pill\">GFF \u00b7 INR \u00b7 DOE \u00b7 SGDSN \u00b7 WEF \u00b7 OCDE \u00b7 CE<\/span>\n          <span class=\"pill\">Prospective strat\u00e9gique et alerte pr\u00e9coce<\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<!-- PRICING -->\n<section id=\"pricing\">\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"section-eyebrow\">Tarification<\/div>\n    <h2>Commandez le rapport.<\/h2>\n\n    <div class=\"pricing-grid\">\n\n      <div class=\"pricing-card\">\n        <div class=\"pricing-tier\" style=\"font-size:0.82rem; \">Rapport<\/div>\n        <div class=\"pricing-price\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"pricing-vat\"><\/div>\n        <ul class=\"pricing-list\">\n          <li class=\"hi\">Rapport complet de 69 pages (PDF)<\/li>\n          <li class=\"hi\">Les huit sc\u00e9narios<\/li>\n          <li class=\"hi\">Bibliographie et sources (16 pages)<\/li>\n          <li>Facteurs impr\u00e9visibles et orientations strat\u00e9giques<\/li>\n<li>Licence mono-utilisateur ou licence d'entreprise (jusqu'\u00e0 20 utilisateurs)<\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/geopolitique-lithium-scenarios-pour-2040-chaine-dapprovisionnement-en-amont\/#product-44120\" class=\"btn-buy-ghost\">Commander le rapport\n<span class=\"btn-price\">5 900,00 \u20ac (hors TVA)<\/span><\/a>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"pricing-card featured\">\n        <div class=\"pricing-badge\">Les plus demand\u00e9s<\/div>\n        <div class=\"pricing-tier\" style=\"font-size:0.82rem; \">Rapport + Expos\u00e9<\/div>\n        <div class=\"pricing-price\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"pricing-vat\"><\/div>\n        <ul class=\"pricing-list\">\n          <li class=\"hi\">Rapport complet de 69 pages (PDF)<\/li>\n          <li class=\"hi\">S\u00e9ance d'information priv\u00e9e d'une heure avec le Dr Lavoix<\/li>\n          <li class=\"hi\">Questions-r\u00e9ponses sur les sc\u00e9narios et votre contexte<\/li>\n          <li>Les huit sc\u00e9narios<\/li>\n          <li>Bibliographie et sources (16 pages)<\/li>\n          <li>Facteurs impr\u00e9visibles et orientations strat\u00e9giques<\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/geopolitique-lithium-scenarios-pour-2040-chaine-dapprovisionnement-en-amont\/#product-44120\" briefing\"\"=\"\" class=\"btn-buy\">Commander le rapport + le compte rendu<br>\n  <span class=\"btn-price\">6 700,00 \u20ac (hors TVA)<\/span><\/a>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <div class=\"pricing-card\">\n        <div class=\"pricing-tier\" style=\"font-size:0.82rem; \">Institutionnel<\/div>\n        <div class=\"pricing-price\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"pricing-vat\"><\/div>\n        <ul class=\"pricing-list\">\n          <li class=\"hi\">Rapport complet de 69 pages (PDF)<\/li>\n          <li class=\"hi\">S\u00e9ance d'information priv\u00e9e d'une heure<\/li>\n          <li class=\"hi\">par exemple : \u00e9valuation de la probabilit\u00e9 d'un sc\u00e9nario<\/li>\n          <li class=\"hi\">par exemple, un acc\u00e8s asynchrone aux questions-r\u00e9ponses pendant 30 jours<\/li>\n          <li>par exemple : adapt\u00e9 \u00e0 votre contexte g\u00e9ographique ou sectoriel<\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/demande-dinformations-sur-la-geopolitique-du-lithium-a-lhorizon-2040\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"btn-buy-ghost\">Contactez-nous<\/a>\n      <\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p class=\"pricing-note\">\n      Services sur mesure disponibles : sous-sc\u00e9narios par pays, tests de r\u00e9sistance sp\u00e9cifiques \u00e0 chaque entreprise, animation d'ateliers, suivi des probabilit\u00e9s au fil du temps.<br>\n      <a href=\"mailto:contact@redanalysis.org\">contact@redanalysis.org<\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<!-- FINAL CTA -->\n<section class=\"final-cta\">\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"section-eyebrow\">Ne r\u00e9agissez pas. Anticipez.<\/div>\n    <h2>L'avenir g\u00e9opolitique du lithium<br>sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours.<\/h2>\n    <p>Ce rapport offre aux d\u00e9cideurs un cadre structur\u00e9 et rigoureux pour les guider \u2014 avant m\u00eame que les sc\u00e9narios ne se concr\u00e9tisent.<\/p>\n    <div class=\"hero-ctas\" style=\"justify-content:center;\">\n      <a href=\"#pricing\" class=\"btn-primary\">Commandez d\u00e8s maintenant<\/a>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/demande-dinformations-sur-la-geopolitique-du-lithium-a-lhorizon-2040\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"btn-ghost\">Demander un extrait \u00e0 titre d'exemple<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<footer>\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <p>\u00a9 2026 The Red Team Analysis Society \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/politique-confidentialite\/\">Politique de confidentialit\u00e9<\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/\">redanalysis.org<\/a><\/p>\n    <p style=\"margin-top:0.4rem; font-size:10.5px;\">Illustrations \u00a9 Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli 2026. Le pr\u00e9sent rapport ne constitue pas une pr\u00e9vision de l'avenir. Toutes les d\u00e9clarations prospectives sont soumises aux incertitudes inh\u00e9rentes \u00e0 la prospective strat\u00e9gique.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/footer>\n\n<\/div><!-- \/.rtas-lp -->\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nouveau rapport \u00b7 Juin 2026 \u00ab G\u00e9opolitique du lithium \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2040 : huit sc\u00e9narios pour la cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement en amont \u00bb. Cette premi\u00e8re s\u00e9rie de sc\u00e9narios s\u2019appuie sur un mod\u00e8le causal rigoureux comprenant 383 variables et 1 528 relations \u2014 un cadre structur\u00e9 permettant d\u2019appr\u00e9hender les incertitudes g\u00e9opolitiques jusqu\u2019en 2040. 8 sc\u00e9narios, 383 n\u0153uds de mod\u00e8le, plus de 69 pages, horizon 2040. Voir les tarifs et passer commande. Demander un extrait. Couverture \u00a9 Jean-Dominique \u2026 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/geopolitics-lithium-2040-eight-scenarios-upstream\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> La g\u00e9opolitique du lithium en 2040 \u2013 Huit sc\u00e9narios pour la cha\u00eene d'approvisionnement en amont<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1078,3247,2558],"class_list":["post-44152","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-new-paradigm","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","category-climate-and-resources-crisis","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Geopolitics for Lithium 2040 - Eight Scenarios for the Upstream Supply Chain &#8226; The Red Team 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