{"id":10250,"date":"2015-09-28T10:05:22","date_gmt":"2015-09-28T08:05:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=10250"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:48:54","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:48:54","slug":"sc%c3%a9narios-future-libye-sc%c3%a9narios-1-3-mission-de-consolidation-de-la-paix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/09\/28\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-3-successful-peacebuilding-mission\/","title":{"rendered":"Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 (3) - Une mission de consolidation de la paix r\u00e9ussie ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s avoir discut\u00e9 de la formation d'un gouvernement d'unit\u00e9, nous continuerons dans cet article \u00e0 d\u00e9tailler les sc\u00e9narios \u00e9valuant le potentiel d'une solution pacifique pour l'avenir de la Libye dans les trois \u00e0 cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es, \u00e0 proposer des indicateurs pour suivre leur d\u00e9roulement et \u00e0 \u00e9valuer progressivement leur probabilit\u00e9. Nous nous concentrerons ici sur le sc\u00e9nario dans lequel une mission internationale de consolidation de la paix est n\u00e9cessaire pour voir le gouvernement et l'\u00c9tat libyens progresser vers la stabilisation. La premi\u00e8re possibilit\u00e9 d'\u00e9volution du sous-sc\u00e9nario 1.1.1 a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e ici (sc\u00e9nario 1.1.1.1 \"Le gouvernement d'unit\u00e9 fonctionne\" - c'est-\u00e0-dire sans assistance internationale, puis articul\u00e9e autour de la capacit\u00e9 ou non \u00e0 faire face aux menaces salafistes). L'organisation de toute la s\u00e9rie de sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye peut \u00eatre trouv\u00e9e ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/09\/28\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-3-successful-peacebuilding-mission\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 (3) - Une mission de consolidation de la paix r\u00e9ussie ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=10250\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s avoir discut\u00e9 de la formation d'un gouvernement d'unit\u00e9, nous continuerons dans cet article \u00e0 d\u00e9tailler les sc\u00e9narios \u00e9valuant le potentiel d'une solution pacifique pour l'avenir de la Libye dans les trois \u00e0 cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es, \u00e0 proposer des indicateurs pour suivre leur d\u00e9roulement et \u00e0 \u00e9valuer progressivement leur probabilit\u00e9. Nous nous concentrerons ici sur le sc\u00e9nario dans lequel une mission internationale de consolidation de la paix est n\u00e9cessaire pour voir le gouvernement et l'\u00c9tat libyens progresser vers la stabilisation. La premi\u00e8re possibilit\u00e9 d'\u00e9volution du sous-sc\u00e9nario 1.1.1 a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e ici (sc\u00e9nario 1.1.1.1 \"Le gouvernement d'unit\u00e9 fonctionne\" - c'est-\u00e0-dire sans assistance internationale, puis articul\u00e9e autour de la capacit\u00e9 ou non \u00e0 faire face aux menaces salafistes). L'organisation de toute la s\u00e9rie de sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye peut \u00eatre trouv\u00e9e ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/09\/28\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-3-successful-peacebuilding-mission\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 (3) - Une mission de consolidation de la paix r\u00e9ussie ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=10250\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":10253,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,3247],"tags":[1789,2080,1628,2060,190],"class_list":["post-10250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-featured","tag-government-of-national-accord","tag-islamic-state","tag-libyan-war","tag-scenarios","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (3) \u2013 A Successful Peacebuilding Mission? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/09\/28\/sc\u00e9narios-future-libye-sc\u00e9narios-1-3-mission-de-consolidation-de-la-paix\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (3) \u2013 A Successful Peacebuilding Mission? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After having discussed the formation of a unity government, with this article we shall continue detailing the scenarios assessing the potential for a peaceful solution for Libya\u2019s future within the next three to five years, suggest indicators to monitor their happenstance and progressively evaluate their likelihood. 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