{"id":10540,"date":"2015-11-09T09:12:46","date_gmt":"2015-11-09T08:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=10540"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:48:01","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:48:01","slug":"scenarios-futur-libya-scenarios-1-4-libyan-mediate-paix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/11\/09\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-4-libyan-mediated-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 (5) - Une paix m\u00e9diatis\u00e9 par la Libye ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9valu\u00e9 les sc\u00e9narios impliquant l'\u00e9chec des n\u00e9gociations de paix, nous conclurons le sc\u00e9nario 1, qui explore les voies vers une paix m\u00e9diatis\u00e9e, en \u00e9valuant le sous-sc\u00e9nario 1.3 de cet article - un sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les n\u00e9gociations de paix, sans m\u00e9diateur externe, aboutissent \u00e0 un trait\u00e9 de paix sign\u00e9 et \u00e0 un gouvernement de transition. Nous nous concentrerons ici sur le sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les acteurs atteignent un tel niveau d'\u00e9puisement qu'ils sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier une paix, comme l'a not\u00e9 Luttwak (Foreign Affairs, 1999) ; et dans ce cas, par le biais de n\u00e9gociations impliquant exclusivement des acteurs libyens, c'est-\u00e0-dire sans m\u00e9diateurs externes. Nous examinerons le sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les acteurs forment un gouvernement d'unit\u00e9 et s'ils progressent ou non vers la stabilisation, ainsi que le sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les acteurs ne parviennent pas \u00e0 ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/11\/09\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-4-libyan-mediated-peace\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 (5) - Une paix m\u00e9diatis\u00e9e par la Libye ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=10540\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9valu\u00e9 les sc\u00e9narios impliquant l'\u00e9chec des n\u00e9gociations de paix, nous conclurons le sc\u00e9nario 1, qui explore les voies vers une paix m\u00e9diatis\u00e9e, en \u00e9valuant le sous-sc\u00e9nario 1.3 de cet article - un sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les n\u00e9gociations de paix, sans m\u00e9diateur externe, aboutissent \u00e0 un trait\u00e9 de paix sign\u00e9 et \u00e0 un gouvernement de transition. Nous nous concentrerons ici sur le sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les acteurs atteignent un tel niveau d'\u00e9puisement qu'ils sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier une paix, comme l'a not\u00e9 Luttwak (Foreign Affairs, 1999) ; et dans ce cas, par le biais de n\u00e9gociations impliquant exclusivement des acteurs libyens, c'est-\u00e0-dire sans m\u00e9diateurs externes. Nous examinerons le sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les acteurs forment un gouvernement d'unit\u00e9 et s'ils progressent ou non vers la stabilisation, ainsi que le sc\u00e9nario dans lequel les acteurs ne parviennent pas \u00e0 ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/11\/09\/scenarios-future-libya-scenarios-1-4-libyan-mediated-peace\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 1 (5) - Une paix m\u00e9diatis\u00e9e par la Libye ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=10540\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":10544,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,3247],"tags":[1789,1628,2060,2101,2008,522],"class_list":["post-10540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-featured","tag-islamic-state","tag-libyan-war","tag-peace-building","tag-state-building","tag-war","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (5) \u2013 A Libyan-Mediated Peace? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/11\/09\/scenarios-futur-libya-scenarios-1-4-libyan-mediate-paix\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (5) \u2013 A Libyan-Mediated Peace? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After evaluating scenarios involving failed peace negotiations, we shall conclude scenario 1, exploring paths towards a mediated peace, by evaluating sub-scenario 1.3 in this article \u2013 a scenario where peace negotiations, without an external mediator, lead to a signed peace treaty and transitional government. Our focus here will be on the scenario where the actors &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 1 (5) \u2013 A Libyan-Mediated Peace?\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. 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