{"id":10795,"date":"2015-12-07T11:09:04","date_gmt":"2015-12-07T10:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=10795"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:47:30","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:47:30","slug":"scenarios-pour-lavenir-de-la-libya-scenarios-2-1-la-jointe-arab-force-prend-place","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/12\/07\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-2-1-the-joint-arab-force-takes-a-side\/","title":{"rendered":"Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 2 (1) - La force arabe commune prend parti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s avoir examin\u00e9 les premiers sc\u00e9narios - n\u00e9gociations diplomatiques entre le Conseil des repr\u00e9sentants (COR) et le Congr\u00e8s national g\u00e9n\u00e9ral (GNC) en vue de la paix - nous commencerons, avec cet article, \u00e0 d\u00e9tailler une deuxi\u00e8me s\u00e9rie de sc\u00e9narios ax\u00e9s sur une intervention ext\u00e9rieure et \u00e0 en \u00e9valuer la probabilit\u00e9. L'organisation de l'ensemble de la s\u00e9rie pour l'avenir de la Libye peut \u00eatre trouv\u00e9e ici. Ce sc\u00e9nario et ses sous-sc\u00e9narios reposent sur les pr\u00e9misses suivantes : malgr\u00e9 le plaidoyer des acteurs externes pour \u00e9viter toute implication \u00e9trang\u00e8re dans la guerre civile libyenne, l'\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 d'une intervention augmente \u00e0 mesure que la Libye se rapproche d'un \u00c9tat d\u00e9faillant et que les affili\u00e9s de l'\u00c9tat islamique (EI) et d'Al-Qa\u00efda \u00e9tendent leurs zones d'op\u00e9ration. Dans notre premi\u00e8re cat\u00e9gorie de sc\u00e9narios d'intervention, les acteurs externes d\u00e9cident d'intervenir en ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/12\/07\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-2-1-the-joint-arab-force-takes-a-side\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 2 (1) - La force arabe commune prend parti \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=10795\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s avoir examin\u00e9 les premiers sc\u00e9narios - n\u00e9gociations diplomatiques entre le Conseil des repr\u00e9sentants (COR) et le Congr\u00e8s national g\u00e9n\u00e9ral (GNC) en vue de la paix - nous commencerons, avec cet article, \u00e0 d\u00e9tailler une deuxi\u00e8me s\u00e9rie de sc\u00e9narios ax\u00e9s sur une intervention ext\u00e9rieure et \u00e0 en \u00e9valuer la probabilit\u00e9. L'organisation de l'ensemble de la s\u00e9rie pour l'avenir de la Libye peut \u00eatre trouv\u00e9e ici. Ce sc\u00e9nario et ses sous-sc\u00e9narios reposent sur les pr\u00e9misses suivantes : malgr\u00e9 le plaidoyer des acteurs externes pour \u00e9viter toute implication \u00e9trang\u00e8re dans la guerre civile libyenne, l'\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 d'une intervention augmente \u00e0 mesure que la Libye se rapproche d'un \u00c9tat d\u00e9faillant et que les affili\u00e9s de l'\u00c9tat islamique (EI) et d'Al-Qa\u00efda \u00e9tendent leurs zones d'op\u00e9ration. Dans notre premi\u00e8re cat\u00e9gorie de sc\u00e9narios d'intervention, les acteurs externes d\u00e9cident d'intervenir en ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/12\/07\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-2-1-the-joint-arab-force-takes-a-side\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios 2 (1) - La force arabe commune prend parti \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=10795\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":10797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,3247,1947],"tags":[289,1789,2117,2116,2060,1042,190,522],"class_list":["post-10795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","category-the-islamic-state","tag-egypt","tag-featured","tag-joint-arab-force","tag-league-of-arab-states","tag-libyan-war","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-scenarios","tag-war","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 2 (1) \u2013 The Joint Arab Force Takes a Side &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/12\/07\/scenarios-pour-lavenir-de-la-libya-scenarios-2-1-la-jointe-arab-force-prend-place\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 2 (1) \u2013 The Joint Arab Force Takes a Side &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After having examined the first scenarios \u2013 diplomatic negotiations between the Council of Representatives (COR) and General National Congress (GNC) towards peace \u2013 with this article we shall begin detailing a second set of scenarios focusing on external intervention and evaluating their likelihood. The organization of the whole series for the future of Libya can &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios 2 (1) \u2013 The Joint Arab Force Takes a Side\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. 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en politique publique - affaires internationales \u00e0 la Liberty University, aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Il a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 un rapport d'analyse politico-\u00e9conomique pour une organisation internationale \u00e0 but non lucratif, a compil\u00e9 un rapport d'analyse non officiel sur Boko Haram pour une commission du Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain, et \u00e9crit des articles pour le Foreign Policy Journal. Lors de son stage \u00e0 l'Institut Hudson, il a effectu\u00e9 des recherches sur des questions cruciales de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale et a analys\u00e9 des d\u00e9fis internationaux complexes dans leur Centre d'analyse politico-militaire.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/jonbmitchell","https:\/\/x.com\/jbmitchell1212"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/jonmitchell\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Arab-League.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/156"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10795"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10795\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}