{"id":12982,"date":"2016-10-12T09:59:58","date_gmt":"2016-10-12T07:59:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=12982"},"modified":"2021-03-22T17:32:29","modified_gmt":"2021-03-22T16:32:29","slug":"coulisses-ete-automne-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2016\/10\/12\/behind-scenes-summer-autumn-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Dans les coulisses \u00c9t\u00e9-Automne 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

L'\u00e9t\u00e9 et le d\u00e9but de l'automne ont \u00e9t\u00e9 des p\u00e9riodes particuli\u00e8rement int\u00e9ressantes pour la Red (Team) Analysis Society. Nous avons notamment particip\u00e9 \u00e0 des r\u00e9unions et des activit\u00e9s cruciales \"en coulisses\", qui fa\u00e7onnent la mani\u00e8re dont le domaine de la gestion des risques, de la prospective et de l'alerte strat\u00e9giques, de la pr\u00e9vention des crises ou, plus largement, de l'anticipation strat\u00e9gique, \u00e9volue, de la pratique, des processus et des m\u00e9thodologies aux grandes questions, risques sp\u00e9cifiques et incertitudes.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 propos des risques, des menaces et des incertitudes au niveau mondial, du processus et de la m\u00e9thodologie<\/h1>\n

Au Forum \u00e9conomique mondial pour le Rapport sur les risques mondiaux 2017 et la 4e r\u00e9volution industrielle<\/h5>\n

H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix a particip\u00e9 \u00e0 l'atelier pr\u00e9paratoire d'octobre 2016 pour le prochain Rapport sur les risques mondiaux 2017 du Forum \u00e9conomique mondial (WEF), qui s'est tenu au magnifique si\u00e8ge du WEF \u00e0 Gen\u00e8ve, Cologny.<\/p>\n

Mise \u00e0 jour : Le Rapport mondial sur les risques 2017 est maintenant disponible, et peut \u00eatre consult\u00e9 \u00e0 l'adresse<\/a> et t\u00e9l\u00e9charg\u00e9<\/a> sur le site web du WEF (la mention de notre participation pour r\u00e9f\u00e9rence se trouve p.70).<\/p>\n

\"wef-entr\u00e9e\"<\/a>Le Rapport sur les risques mondiaux est un produit phare du FEM, fond\u00e9 sur les r\u00e9sultats d'une enqu\u00eate \"qui rassemble les perceptions des groupes d'int\u00e9r\u00eat multipartites du Forum \u00e9conomique mondial dans diff\u00e9rents domaines d'expertise, zones g\u00e9ographiques et groupes d'\u00e2ge\" (FEM). Le prochain rapport 2017 sera publi\u00e9 juste avant le plus c\u00e9l\u00e8bre \u00e9v\u00e9nement mondial du WEF, le R\u00e9union de Davos.<\/a><\/p>\n

Le s\u00e9minaire d'octobre a r\u00e9uni un groupe d'experts s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9s dans divers domaines, issus des secteurs public, priv\u00e9 et universitaire. En tant qu'experts, notre t\u00e2che consistait \u00e0 fournir \"un aper\u00e7u des r\u00e9sultats de l'enqu\u00eate et de l'interpr\u00e9tation de certains liens entre les risques... afin de contribuer \u00e0 fa\u00e7onner le contenu du Rapport sur les risques mondiaux 2017\" (\"WEF\"). Nous avons donc travaill\u00e9 en groupes et en s\u00e9ances pl\u00e9ni\u00e8res, anim\u00e9s par la grande \u00e9quipe du WEF, sur les principaux risques identifi\u00e9s et leurs interconnexions. Klaus Schwab, fondateur et pr\u00e9sident ex\u00e9cutif du WEF, a visit\u00e9 notre r\u00e9union de travail \u00e0 plusieurs reprises et a partag\u00e9 sa vision, ses id\u00e9es et son dynamisme.<\/p>\n

\"wef-outside\"<\/a>
Le travail et les discussions se poursuivent pendant la pause d\u00e9jeuner (visages et badges brouill\u00e9s pour respecter la vie priv\u00e9e)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nous pourrions \u00e9galement r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 l'axe principal de cette ann\u00e9e : les technologies \u00e9mergentes et la 4e r\u00e9volution industrielle. Ce th\u00e8me est la nouvelle entreprise du WEF, et en effet le Forum a annonc\u00e9 (10 octobre 2016) l'ouverture de son nouveau \"Centre pour la 4\u00e8me R\u00e9volution Industrielle\" \u00e0 San Francisco, \"pour faire avancer la coop\u00e9ration mondiale\" sur ce changement \u00e9norme (voir\u00a0communiqu\u00e9 de presse<\/a>) - nous avons \u00e9t\u00e9 inform\u00e9s en toute confiance de cette \u00e9volution pendant la r\u00e9union, mais nous avons jur\u00e9 de ne rien dire jusqu'\u00e0 l'annonce officielle, bien s\u00fbr.<\/p>\n

Ce fut une r\u00e9union fantastique, avec une incroyable richesse de perspectives, de discussions constructives et d'id\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Au Forum de haut niveau sur les risques de l'OCDE Politique<\/h5>\n

H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix a \u00e9galement particip\u00e9 au dernier s\u00e9minaire politique du Forum de haut niveau sur les risques (FHNR) (septembre 2016) intitul\u00e9 \"Pr\u00e9parer les gouvernements aux menaces \u00e0 long terme et aux d\u00e9fis complexes\", qui a eu lieu au si\u00e8ge de l'OCDE. La participation de la Red (Team) Analysis Society au FHNR a d\u00e9but\u00e9 en mai 2015 \u00e0 Gen\u00e8ve, lorsque nous avons \u00e9t\u00e9 invit\u00e9s \u00e0 prononcer un discours liminaire lors du quatri\u00e8me atelier de la Conf\u00e9d\u00e9ration suisse et de l'OCDE sur la gestion strat\u00e9gique des crises.\u00a0\"oecdarticle\"<\/a>\"Anticiper les crises et leurs voies d'\u00e9volution potentielles\".<\/p>\n

Le s\u00e9minaire sur les politiques du FHNL a \u00e9t\u00e9, comme d'habitude, une journ\u00e9e tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressante et productive, avec de nombreuses id\u00e9es et des \u00e9changes entre des praticiens tr\u00e8s exp\u00e9riment\u00e9s des secteurs public et priv\u00e9, provenant de divers pays de l'OCDE. Entre autres, Greg Treverton, le pr\u00e9sident du Conseil national du renseignement des \u00c9tats-Unis, a donn\u00e9 un aper\u00e7u (non classifi\u00e9) de la prochaine Tendances mondiales,\u00a0<\/em>le produit de prospective strat\u00e9gique des services de renseignement am\u00e9ricains pr\u00e9par\u00e9 tous les quatre ans pour le prochain pr\u00e9sident.<\/p>\n

Nous avons \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 ravis de voir notre propre contribution publi\u00e9e. Pour l'instant, elle n'est disponible qu'en version papier pour les membres du Forum (l'article, bien s\u00fbr, comme d'habitude, ne repr\u00e9sente pas les vues de l'OCDE - voir photo de la page de couverture ci-dessus).<\/p>\n

Enseigner \u00e0 SciencesPo-PSIA<\/h5>\n

L'enseignement, d'une mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rente, est \u00e9galement consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme une activit\u00e9 \"en coulisse\", car l'\u00e9ducation est un moyen essentiel pour assurer une bonne gouvernance et un bon leadership \u00e0 l'avenir. H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix a recommenc\u00e9 \u00e0 enseigner \u00e0 l'\u00c9cole des affaires internationales de Sciences Po \u00e0 Paris le cours \"Analyse des risques et gestion de crise\" dans la concentration \"Risques mondiaux\" des masters concern\u00e9s (de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale au management public international ou \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie internationale) pour un nouveau semestre. L'enseignement est, comme toujours, une grande exp\u00e9rience multinationale, o\u00f9 de brillants \u00e9tudiants issus de r\u00e9gions du monde tr\u00e8s diverses (de la Cor\u00e9e \u00e0 la Russie, en passant par l'Inde, les \u00c9tats-Unis, l'Am\u00e9rique latine ou les pays europ\u00e9ens), nous poussent \u00e0 aller toujours plus loin et plus loin dans notre compr\u00e9hension et notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 expliquer et \u00e0 communiquer l'anticipation.<\/p>\n

Sur les risques, menaces et incertitudes sp\u00e9cifiques<\/h1>\n

Jean-Michel Valantin a prononc\u00e9 un discours sur \"La biodiversit\u00e9 et l'arm\u00e9e au niveau international\", et a particip\u00e9 aux d\u00e9bats de la conf\u00e9rence internationale \"Vie, D\u00e9fense, Nature, 2mil\" \u00e0 N\u00eemes (France) en juin 2016, qui a r\u00e9uni des repr\u00e9sentants de haut niveau de la d\u00e9fense de nombreux pays. Les \u00e9changes en pl\u00e9ni\u00e8re et en tables rondes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 anim\u00e9s, constructifs et engag\u00e9s sur le r\u00f4le de l'arm\u00e9e dans la protection et la pr\u00e9servation de la biodiversit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\"jon-mitchell-simulation-moyen-orient300\"<\/a>\u00c0 la mi-octobre, Jon Mitchell a organis\u00e9 un jeu de r\u00f4le interactif sur la diplomatie au Moyen-Orient, auquel ont particip\u00e9 23 joueurs. C'est le troisi\u00e8me \u00e9v\u00e9nement de ce type qu'il d\u00e9veloppe et dirige pour les \u00e9tudiants de la Liberty University aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Ces exercices de diplomatie sont bas\u00e9s sur des probl\u00e8mes r\u00e9els et permettent aux \u00e9tudiants de jouer le r\u00f4le de divers chefs de gouvernement tout en se d\u00e9pla\u00e7ant dans des situations diplomatiques et militaires complexes.<\/p>\n

H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix est intervenue et a anim\u00e9 les d\u00e9bats lors d'un s\u00e9minaire (juillet) sur \"La radicalisation en Afrique francophone : causes, indicateurs et moyens de pr\u00e9vention\", organis\u00e9 \u00e0 l'Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), et soutenu par l'OIF et le minist\u00e8re fran\u00e7ais de la d\u00e9fense.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L'\u00e9t\u00e9 et le d\u00e9but de l'automne ont \u00e9t\u00e9 des p\u00e9riodes particuli\u00e8rement int\u00e9ressantes pour la Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 d'analyse Red (Team). Nous avons notamment particip\u00e9 \u00e0 des r\u00e9unions et activit\u00e9s cruciales \"en coulisses\", qui fa\u00e7onnent la mani\u00e8re dont le domaine de la gestion des risques, de la prospective et de l'alerte strat\u00e9gique, de la pr\u00e9vention des crises ou plus largement de l'anticipation strat\u00e9gique \u00e9volue, depuis la pratique, les processus et les m\u00e9thodologies, jusqu'aux grandes questions, aux risques sp\u00e9cifiques et aux incertitudes. Sur les risques, menaces et incertitudes globaux, ... <\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture \" Dans les coulisses
\u00c9t\u00e9-Automne 2016 \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2860],"tags":[380,2347,1789,1310,1210,381],"class_list":["post-12982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","tag-davos","tag-events","tag-featured","tag-oecd","tag-risk","tag-world-economic-forum","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nBehind-the-Scenes Summer-Autumn 2016 • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We participated in crucial "behind-the-scenes" meetings and activities, from the World Economic Forum to the OECD, which shape the field of risk management.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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