{"id":13090,"date":"2016-10-24T10:00:57","date_gmt":"2016-10-24T08:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=13090"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:36:26","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:36:26","slug":"scenarios-futurs-libya-sc-3-1-islamistes-libya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-3-1-islamist-libya\/","title":{"rendered":"Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc 3.1 Une Libye islamiste"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dans notre article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, nous avons d\u00e9taill\u00e9 trois sous-sc\u00e9narios de partition et de d\u00e9bordement combin\u00e9s, dans lesquels la Libye dispara\u00eet en tant que telle par la cr\u00e9ation de trois nouveaux \u00c9tats, tandis que les faiblesses cons\u00e9cutives sont \u00e0 l'origine du d\u00e9bordement sur les nations voisines. Nous avons ainsi conclu la s\u00e9rie des sc\u00e9narios 2, qui d\u00e9crivaient une guerre civile continue mais avec des termes diff\u00e9rents, c'est-\u00e0-dire un changement de terrain ou d'acteurs (voir Mitchell, \"Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye dans les trois \u00e0 cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es\", 1er juin 2015 ; et Lavoix, \"Comment analyser les menaces de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 futures (4) : Sc\u00e9narios et guerre \", 30 d\u00e9cembre 2013). Cet article se concentre sur le premier des deux sc\u00e9narios possibles d\u00e9taillant une victoire totale en Libye, soit par les islamistes, soit par les nationalistes. Le sc\u00e9nario [...] <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-3-1-islamist-libya\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc 3.1 Une Libye islamiste \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=13090\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans notre article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, nous avons d\u00e9taill\u00e9 trois sous-sc\u00e9narios de partition et de d\u00e9bordement combin\u00e9s, dans lesquels la Libye dispara\u00eet en tant que telle par la cr\u00e9ation de trois nouveaux \u00c9tats, tandis que les faiblesses cons\u00e9cutives sont \u00e0 l'origine du d\u00e9bordement sur les nations voisines. Nous avons ainsi conclu la s\u00e9rie des sc\u00e9narios 2, qui d\u00e9crivaient une guerre civile continue mais avec des termes diff\u00e9rents, c'est-\u00e0-dire un changement de terrain ou d'acteurs (voir Mitchell, \"Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye dans les trois \u00e0 cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es\", 1er juin 2015 ; et Lavoix, \"Comment analyser les menaces de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 futures (4) : Sc\u00e9narios et guerre \", 30 d\u00e9cembre 2013). Cet article se concentre sur le premier des deux sc\u00e9narios possibles d\u00e9taillant une victoire totale en Libye, soit par les islamistes, soit par les nationalistes. Le sc\u00e9nario [...] <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-3-1-islamist-libya\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc 3.1 Une Libye islamiste \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=13090\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":13096,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,2499,3247],"tags":[1789,695,2317,2163,466,2033,2331],"class_list":["post-13090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-featured","tag-indicator","tag-libya","tag-libyan-tribes","tag-muslim-brotherhood","tag-scenario","tag-warning","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-futurs-libya-sc-3-1-islamistes-libya\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In our previous article we detailed three sub-scenarios of combined partition and spill over where Libya disappears as such through the creation of three new states, while consequent weaknesses is the cause of spill over to neighboring nations. We thus concluded the series of scenarios 2, which depicted a continuing civil war but with different &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-futurs-libya-sc-3-1-islamistes-libya\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-10-24T08:00:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-08T10:36:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Misrata-Photo.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"672\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"372\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@jbmitchell1212\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/51268d86724cf8a939cfc4f20643ccd6\"},\"headline\":\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-10-24T08:00:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-08T10:36:26+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2804,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/Misrata-Photo.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"indicator\",\"Libya\",\"Libyan tribes\",\"Muslim Brotherhood\",\"scenario\",\"warning\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Libya and Scenarios\",\"Middle-East and North Africa\",\"Real World Examples of Scenarios\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\",\"name\":\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya &#8226; 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