Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n
Le monde est entr\u00e9 dans une p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 l'incertitude r\u00e8gne et o\u00f9 les surprises abondent.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Si l'on se concentre sur 2016, les deux grandes surprises qui sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement signal\u00e9es sont le Brexit ou le vote qui conduira \u00e0 la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l'Union europ\u00e9enne, puis l'\u00e9lection du pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Trump contre la candidate d\u00e9mocrate favorite, Hillary Clinton. M\u00eame si une vision \u00e0 court terme pourrait laisser croire que les troubles ne frappent que ou principalement \"l'Occident\", les surprises et les incertitudes politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques se sont multipli\u00e9es dans le monde entier, \u00e0 commencer au moins par le choc de la crise financi\u00e8re en 2007 et 2008 et les r\u00e9ponses qui y ont \u00e9t\u00e9 apport\u00e9es (voir note de fin de texte pour quelques exemples majeurs*).<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Que se passe-t-il donc ? Comment allons-nous faire face \u00e0 l'incertitude ? Ces surprises sont-elles li\u00e9es ou des \u00e9v\u00e9nements ind\u00e9pendants et discrets qu'il serait erron\u00e9 de lier ou d'essayer de comprendre ensemble ?<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Nous commencerons ici par les surprises de 2016 et l'incertitude permanente qui y est li\u00e9e, c'est-\u00e0-dire le Brexit et la pr\u00e9sidence am\u00e9ricaine du Trump, et nous nous concentrerons plus particuli\u00e8rement sur les contradictions et les questions qui se posent lorsque nous comparons les deux ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes. Nous chercherons un cadre et des \u00e9l\u00e9ments de compr\u00e9hension, qui pourront ensuite \u00eatre utilis\u00e9s dans l'\u00e9laboration de sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
\n
Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21230,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,1206,2502,1078],"tags":[143,2328,61,1967,1789,183,328,1799,2442,1586,98,2033,123,2401,2175],"class_list":["post-13999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-analyse","category-europe","category-new-paradigm","tag-bank","tag-brexit","tag-china","tag-eu","tag-featured","tag-finance","tag-globalisation","tag-high-tech","tag-international-orfer","tag-liberalism","tag-mapping","tag-scenario","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-trump","tag-u-s","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nBeyond the End of Globalisation - From the Brexit to U.S. President Trump • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/02\/27\/au-del\u00e0-fin-globalisation-brexit-us-president-trump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beyond the End of Globalisation - From the Brexit to U.S. President Trump • The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The world has entered a period where uncertainty rules and where surprises abound. Focusing on 2016, the two major surprises usually singled out are the Brexit or the vote leading to the exit of the U.K. from the European Union, then the election of U.S. President Trump against favourite Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Even though a short-term focus could let us believe that the turmoil only or mainly hits "the West", political and geopolitical surprises and uncertainties have multiplied worldwide, starting at least with the shock of the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008 and responses to it (see end note for some major instances*). What is thus happening? How are we to tackle the uncertainty? Are these surprises related or discrete independent events that it would be wrong to link or try to understand together? We shall start here with the 2016 surprises and related ongoing uncertainty, i.e. the Brexit and the U.S. Trump Presidency, and focus more particularly on the contradictions and questions that arise when we compare the two phenomena. We shall seek a framework for and elements of understanding, which can then be used in the development of scenarios for the future. This content is restricted to members only. 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Elle est titulaire d'un doctorat en \u00e9tudes politiques et d'une ma\u00eetrise en politique internationale de l'Asie (avec distinction) de la School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), Universit\u00e9 de Londres, ainsi que d'une ma\u00eetrise en finance (major de promotion, Grande \u00c9cole, France).\r\n\r\nExperte en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte pr\u00e9coce, notamment pour les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale, elle combine 30 ans d'exp\u00e9rience en relations internationales et pr\u00e8s de 20 ans en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte. Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/globes-1568.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13999"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13999\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}