{"id":15027,"date":"2017-05-09T13:02:59","date_gmt":"2017-05-09T11:02:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=15027"},"modified":"2024-05-23T15:26:07","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T13:26:07","slug":"evaluation-des-probabilites-daugmentation-de-la-contagion-et-de-la-repartition-pour-le-scenario-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s pour la Libye - Sc\u00e9nario 2 : augmentation des retomb\u00e9es et du partage"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Featured image: Operation Triton by\u00a0Tomh903\u00a0[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring\u2014thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. When discussing the potential directions of spillover, north refers to Europe; east refers to Egypt; south refers to Niger and Chad; and west refers to Algeria and Tunisia. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \u00ab\u00a0Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15027\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Featured image: Operation Triton by\u00a0Tomh903\u00a0[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring\u2014thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. When discussing the potential directions of spillover, north refers to Europe; east refers to Egypt; south refers to Niger and Chad; and west refers to Algeria and Tunisia. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \u00ab\u00a0Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15027\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":15030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2502,312,2499,3247,2500],"tags":[2010,2483,289,1789,156,2434,695,2317,625,2078,1484,2334,190,2318,123,1391,522,2331],"class_list":["post-15027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","category-sub-saharan-africa","tag-algeria","tag-chad","tag-egypt","tag-featured","tag-future","tag-geopolitical-uncertainty","tag-indicator","tag-libya","tag-likelihood","tag-migrants","tag-niger","tag-risk-management","tag-scenarios","tag-spillover","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-tunisia","tag-war","tag-warning","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluation-des-probabilites-daugmentation-de-la-contagion-et-de-la-repartition-pour-le-scenario-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Featured image: Operation Triton by\u00a0Tomh903\u00a0[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring\u2014thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluation-des-probabilites-daugmentation-de-la-contagion-et-de-la-repartition-pour-le-scenario-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-05-09T11:02:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-23T13:26:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Spillover-Feature.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1038\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@jbmitchell1212\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"19 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/05\\\/09\\\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/05\\\/09\\\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/51268d86724cf8a939cfc4f20643ccd6\"},\"headline\":\"Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-05-09T11:02:59+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-23T13:26:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/05\\\/09\\\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":3448,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/05\\\/09\\\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/05\\\/Spillover-Feature.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Algeria\",\"Chad\",\"Egypt\",\"featured\",\"future\",\"geopolitical uncertainty\",\"indicator\",\"Libya\",\"likelihood\",\"migrants\",\"Niger\",\"risk management\",\"scenarios\",\"spillover\",\"strategic foresight\",\"Tunisia\",\"war\",\"warning\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Europe\",\"Libya and Scenarios\",\"Middle-East and North Africa\",\"Real World Examples of Scenarios\",\"Sub-Saharan Africa\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/05\\\/09\\\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/05\\\/09\\\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/05\\\/09\\\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\\\/\",\"name\":\"Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition &#8226; 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He has contributed to a political-economic analysis report for a non-profit international organization, compiled an unofficial analysis report on Boko Haram for a U.S. Congressional Committee, and writes articles for Foreign Policy Journal. While interning with the Hudson Institute, he researched critical regional security issues and analyzed complex international challenges in their Center for Political-Military Analysis.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/jonbmitchell\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/jbmitchell1212\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/author\\\/jonmitchell\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u00c9valuation des sc\u00e9narios possibles pour la Libye \u2013 Sc\u00e9nario 2 : propagation accrue du conflit et partition \u2022 Le Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluation-des-probabilites-daugmentation-de-la-contagion-et-de-la-repartition-pour-le-scenario-2\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":"Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"Featured image: Operation Triton by\u00a0Tomh903\u00a0[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring\u2014thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. 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Please log in or become a member to gain access.","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluation-des-probabilites-daugmentation-de-la-contagion-et-de-la-repartition-pour-le-scenario-2\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2017-05-09T11:02:59+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-05-23T13:26:07+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1038,"height":576,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Spillover-Feature.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Jon Mitchell (Ma)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@jbmitchell1212","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Jon Mitchell (Ma)","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"19 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en politique publique - affaires internationales \u00e0 la Liberty University, aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Il a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 un rapport d'analyse politico-\u00e9conomique pour une organisation internationale \u00e0 but non lucratif, a compil\u00e9 un rapport d'analyse non officiel sur Boko Haram pour une commission du Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain, et \u00e9crit des articles pour le Foreign Policy Journal. Lors de son stage \u00e0 l'Institut Hudson, il a effectu\u00e9 des recherches sur des questions cruciales de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale et a analys\u00e9 des d\u00e9fis internationaux complexes dans leur Centre d'analyse politico-militaire.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/jonbmitchell","https:\/\/x.com\/jbmitchell1212"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/jonmitchell\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Spillover-Feature.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/156"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15027"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15027\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39599,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15027\/revisions\/39599"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}