{"id":15339,"date":"2017-05-29T10:03:13","date_gmt":"2017-05-29T08:03:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=15339"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:34:45","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:34:45","slug":"%c3%a9valuer-les-probabilit%c3%a9s-pour-la-libye-sc%c3%a9nario-32-a-total-victoire-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/29\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-32-a-total-victory-1\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9valuer les probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios de victoires (1)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dans cet article, nous allons \u00e9valuer la probabilit\u00e9 d'une victoire totale du GNC, de la GNA et du COR. Par victoire totale, nous entendons une victoire compl\u00e8te d'un camp sur ses adversaires, qui n'est pas impos\u00e9e de haut en bas par des puissances ext\u00e9rieures. Dans l'article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, nous avons \u00e9valu\u00e9 la probabilit\u00e9 que divers sc\u00e9narios de d\u00e9bordement se produisent \u00e0 la fois en cas de partition et sans partition. Maintenant qu'une intervention a d\u00e9j\u00e0 lieu, comme nous l'avons vu dans notre article sur les sc\u00e9narios d'intervention, les sc\u00e9narios de \"Victoire totale\" sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des sous-sc\u00e9narios du sc\u00e9nario 2 : Intervention et non comme des sc\u00e9narios ind\u00e9pendants. En tant que tel, cela se refl\u00e9tera dans les indicateurs, la cartographie et les probabilit\u00e9s. En effet, \u00e0 mesure que les \u00e9v\u00e9nements se sont d\u00e9roul\u00e9s et que l'intervention a eu lieu, les sc\u00e9narios 3, qui \u00e9taient sur le point ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/29\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-32-a-total-victory-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" \u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios de victoires (1) \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15339\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans cet article, nous allons \u00e9valuer la probabilit\u00e9 d'une victoire totale du GNC, de la GNA et du COR. Par victoire totale, nous entendons une victoire compl\u00e8te d'un camp sur ses adversaires, qui n'est pas impos\u00e9e de haut en bas par des puissances ext\u00e9rieures. Dans l'article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, nous avons \u00e9valu\u00e9 la probabilit\u00e9 que divers sc\u00e9narios de d\u00e9bordement se produisent \u00e0 la fois en cas de partition et sans partition. Maintenant qu'une intervention a d\u00e9j\u00e0 lieu, comme nous l'avons vu dans notre article sur les sc\u00e9narios d'intervention, les sc\u00e9narios de \"Victoire totale\" sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des sous-sc\u00e9narios du sc\u00e9nario 2 : Intervention et non comme des sc\u00e9narios ind\u00e9pendants. En tant que tel, cela se refl\u00e9tera dans les indicateurs, la cartographie et les probabilit\u00e9s. En effet, \u00e0 mesure que les \u00e9v\u00e9nements se sont d\u00e9roul\u00e9s et que l'intervention a eu lieu, les sc\u00e9narios 3, qui \u00e9taient sur le point ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/29\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-32-a-total-victory-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" \u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios de victoires (1) \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15339\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":15350,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,2499,3247],"tags":[289,1789,2434,1949,1100,2317,625,2334,190,522,2331],"class_list":["post-15339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-egypt","tag-featured","tag-geopolitical-uncertainty","tag-haftar","tag-indicators","tag-libya","tag-likelihood","tag-risk-management","tag-scenarios","tag-war","tag-warning","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios of Victories (1) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/29\/\u00e9valuer-les-probabilit\u00e9s-pour-la-libye-sc\u00e9nario-32-a-total-victoire-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios of Victories (1) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR. 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By total victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for various spillover scenarios &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 Scenarios of Victories (1)\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. 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Lors de son stage \u00e0 l'Institut Hudson, il a effectu\u00e9 des recherches sur des questions cruciales de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale et a analys\u00e9 des d\u00e9fis internationaux complexes dans leur Centre d'analyse politico-militaire.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/jonbmitchell","https:\/\/x.com\/jbmitchell1212"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/jonmitchell\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Victory-Feature-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/156"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15339\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15350"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}