{"id":15491,"date":"2017-06-19T10:30:09","date_gmt":"2017-06-19T08:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=15491"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:34:34","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:34:34","slug":"%c3%a9valuer-les-probabilit%c3%a9s-pour-le-futur-de-la-libye-sc%c3%a9narios-de-victoires-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/06\/19\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-of-victories-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9valuer les probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios de victoires (2)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dans cet article, nous \u00e9valuerons la probabilit\u00e9 d'une victoire durable du GNC, du GNA et du COR - en d'autres termes, la capacit\u00e9 de chaque gouvernement \u00e0 non seulement remporter la victoire, mais aussi \u00e0 maintenir un contr\u00f4le durable. Par victoire, nous entendons une victoire compl\u00e8te d'un camp sur ses adversaires, qui n'est pas impos\u00e9e de haut en bas par des puissances ext\u00e9rieures. Dans l'article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, nous avons \u00e9valu\u00e9 la probabilit\u00e9 de la victoire initiale de chaque gouvernement, en constatant que la victoire du COR \u00e9tait la moins probable. Maintenant qu'une intervention est d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours, comme nous l'avons vu dans notre article sur les sc\u00e9narios d'intervention, les sc\u00e9narios de \"victoire totale\" sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des sous-sc\u00e9narios du sc\u00e9nario 2 : Intervention et non comme des sc\u00e9narios ind\u00e9pendants. En tant que tel, cela sera refl\u00e9t\u00e9 dans ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/06\/19\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-of-victories-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" \u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios de victoires (2) \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15491\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans cet article, nous \u00e9valuerons la probabilit\u00e9 d'une victoire durable du GNC, du GNA et du COR - en d'autres termes, la capacit\u00e9 de chaque gouvernement \u00e0 non seulement remporter la victoire, mais aussi \u00e0 maintenir un contr\u00f4le durable. Par victoire, nous entendons une victoire compl\u00e8te d'un camp sur ses adversaires, qui n'est pas impos\u00e9e de haut en bas par des puissances ext\u00e9rieures. Dans l'article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, nous avons \u00e9valu\u00e9 la probabilit\u00e9 de la victoire initiale de chaque gouvernement, en constatant que la victoire du COR \u00e9tait la moins probable. Maintenant qu'une intervention est d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours, comme nous l'avons vu dans notre article sur les sc\u00e9narios d'intervention, les sc\u00e9narios de \"victoire totale\" sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des sous-sc\u00e9narios du sc\u00e9nario 2 : Intervention et non comme des sc\u00e9narios ind\u00e9pendants. En tant que tel, cela sera refl\u00e9t\u00e9 dans ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/06\/19\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-of-victories-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" \u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Sc\u00e9narios de victoires (2) \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15491\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,2499,3247],"tags":[289,1789,795,2434,1949,1100,2317,625,2334,220,190,2175,1638,522,2331],"class_list":["post-15491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-egypt","tag-featured","tag-france","tag-geopolitical-uncertainty","tag-haftar","tag-indicators","tag-libya","tag-likelihood","tag-risk-management","tag-russia","tag-scenarios","tag-u-s","tag-uae","tag-war","tag-warning","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya - Scenarios of Victories (2) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/06\/19\/\u00e9valuer-les-probabilit\u00e9s-pour-le-futur-de-la-libye-sc\u00e9narios-de-victoires-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya - Scenarios of Victories (2) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR\u2014in other words, the ability of each government to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. 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By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya &#8211; Scenarios of Victories (2)\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. 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