{"id":15887,"date":"2017-09-11T09:55:06","date_gmt":"2017-09-11T07:55:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=15887"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:34:05","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:34:05","slug":"evaluation-des-probabilites-dune-future-victoire-de-la-ligue-des-champions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/09\/11\/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-lasting-salafist-victory\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Une victoire salafiste durable"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dans cet article, aussi improbable que cela puisse para\u00eetre actuellement*, nous \u00e9valuerons la probabilit\u00e9 d'une victoire durable des salafistes - en d'autres termes, la capacit\u00e9 d'Al-Qaida ou de l'\u00c9tat islamique \u00e0 non seulement remporter la victoire, mais aussi \u00e0 maintenir un contr\u00f4le durable. Par victoire, nous entendons une victoire compl\u00e8te d'un camp sur ses adversaires, qui n'est pas impos\u00e9e de haut en bas par des puissances ext\u00e9rieures. Dans l'article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, nous avons \u00e9valu\u00e9 la probabilit\u00e9 d'une victoire initiale d'Al-Qaida et de l'\u00c9tat islamique, en concluant qu'une victoire d'Al-Qaida \u00e9tait la moins probable. Maintenant que l'intervention est d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours, comme nous l'avons vu dans notre article sur les sc\u00e9narios d'intervention, les sc\u00e9narios de \" victoire salafiste \" sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des sous-sc\u00e9narios de .... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/09\/11\/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-lasting-salafist-victory\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" \u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Une victoire salafiste durable \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15887\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans cet article, aussi improbable que cela puisse para\u00eetre actuellement*, nous \u00e9valuerons la probabilit\u00e9 d'une victoire durable des salafistes - en d'autres termes, la capacit\u00e9 d'Al-Qaida ou de l'\u00c9tat islamique \u00e0 non seulement remporter la victoire, mais aussi \u00e0 maintenir un contr\u00f4le durable. Par victoire, nous entendons une victoire compl\u00e8te d'un camp sur ses adversaires, qui n'est pas impos\u00e9e de haut en bas par des puissances ext\u00e9rieures. Dans l'article pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, nous avons \u00e9valu\u00e9 la probabilit\u00e9 d'une victoire initiale d'Al-Qaida et de l'\u00c9tat islamique, en concluant qu'une victoire d'Al-Qaida \u00e9tait la moins probable. Maintenant que l'intervention est d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours, comme nous l'avons vu dans notre article sur les sc\u00e9narios d'intervention, les sc\u00e9narios de \" victoire salafiste \" sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des sous-sc\u00e9narios de .... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/09\/11\/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-lasting-salafist-victory\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" \u00c9valuation des probabilit\u00e9s pour l'avenir de la Libye - Une victoire salafiste durable \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>Le reste de cet article est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 notre <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">membres<\/a>. Assurez-vous d'obtenir une v\u00e9ritable analyse et non une opinion ou, pire encore, une fausse nouvelle. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15887\">Se connecter<\/a> et acc\u00e9der \u00e0 cet article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":15895,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,3247],"tags":[1485,2532,1789,1628,2317,190],"class_list":["post-15887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-al-qaeda","tag-al-qaida","tag-featured","tag-islamic-state","tag-libya","tag-scenarios","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 A Lasting Salafist Victory &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/09\/11\/evaluation-des-probabilites-dune-future-victoire-de-la-ligue-des-champions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 A Lasting Salafist Victory &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this article, however unlikely it would appear currently*, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the Salafists \u2014 in other words, the ability of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya \u2013 A Lasting Salafist Victory\u00a0\u00bbThis content is restricted to members only. 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