{"id":16058,"date":"2017-11-06T10:00:27","date_gmt":"2017-11-06T09:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=16058"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:26:12","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:26:12","slug":"paradoxe-nous-d%c3%a9clin-tensions-cor%c3%a9e-du-nord","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/11\/06\/paradox-u-s-decline-tensions-north-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"Le paradoxe du d\u00e9clin am\u00e9ricain ... et les tensions avec la Cor\u00e9e du Nord"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cet article souligne le caract\u00e8re paradoxal d'un d\u00e9clin des \u00c9tats-Unis, et aborde l'impossibilit\u00e9 pour les \u00c9tats-Unis d'accepter leur disparition en tant que superpuissance. Il applique ce cadre au cas des tensions de 2017 avec la Cor\u00e9e du Nord, et en d\u00e9duit une voie future possible pour la ligne de conduite des \u00c9tats-Unis, ainsi que des leviers possibles concernant la position des \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n

Il s'agit de la derni\u00e8re partie d'une s\u00e9rie de trois articles dans lesquels nous examinons trois dimensions du d\u00e9clin des \u00c9tats-Unis telles qu'elles sont per\u00e7ues - publiquement - par le National Intelligence Council (NIC), qui fait partie de l'Office of The Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) des \u00c9tats-Unis. Dans le premi\u00e8re partie<\/a> (acc\u00e8s libre), nous avons cherch\u00e9 \u00e0 comprendre ce que le NIC entend exactement par un d\u00e9clin am\u00e9ricain et son d\u00e9but. Le site deuxi\u00e8me article<\/a> se concentre sur les sources du d\u00e9clin et de la puissance am\u00e9ricaine, telles qu'identifi\u00e9es par le NIC, qui nous donnent \u00e9galement des indicateurs pour suivre le d\u00e9clin.<\/p>\n

\n

R\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lorsque le d\u00e9clin d'un pays est en jeu, les perceptions et les actions qui en r\u00e9sultent pour la puissance en d\u00e9clin sont cruciales. Par cons\u00e9quent, nous nous concentrons sur la fa\u00e7on dont la communaut\u00e9 du renseignement am\u00e9ricaine (I.C.) aborde l'id\u00e9e et la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d'un d\u00e9clin am\u00e9ricain, \u00e0 travers la version non classifi\u00e9e (publique) de Tendances mondiales : Le paradoxe du progr\u00e8s (GT)<\/a>le rapport quadriennal de prospective strat\u00e9gique que l'U.S. I.C. produit pour le nouveau pr\u00e9sident \u00e9lu.<\/em><\/p>\n

En raison des incertitudes de GT, il en r\u00e9sulte une ambigu\u00eft\u00e9, voire un paradoxe concernant le d\u00e9clin des \u00c9tats-Unis. D'une part, le d\u00e9clin est affirm\u00e9 mais avec des incertitudes implicites, et d'autre part, des moyens de le renverser sont \u00e9galement sugg\u00e9r\u00e9s. En outre, le C.I.S. insiste \u00e9galement sur la place morale unique des \u00c9tats-Unis dans le monde. En cons\u00e9quence, le rapport de prospective pourrait finalement inciter et soutenir non pas l'acceptation de la fin du monde unipolaire dirig\u00e9 par les \u00c9tats-Unis, mais la conception d'une politique am\u00e9ricaine tr\u00e8s affirm\u00e9e pour retrouver ou conserver le statut de superpuissance, qu'il est un devoir moral de suivre.<\/em><\/p>\n

Il y a ici une convergence entre l'\u00e9valuation de l'I.C. des \u00c9tats-Unis et la politique \" America First \" de la pr\u00e9sidence Trump. L'isolationnisme ne fait pas partie du tableau, malgr\u00e9 les premi\u00e8res conclusions h\u00e2tives de certains commentateurs, juste apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections.<\/em><\/p>\n

Appliqu\u00e9 \u00e0 la crise nord-cor\u00e9enne de 2017, le cadre construit par GT explique la position des \u00c9tats-Unis. Il montre qu'il est probable que la crise soit aussi devenue un enjeu dans la lutte des \u00c9tats-Unis pour retrouver ou conserver leur statut de superpuissance. Par cons\u00e9quent, il est fort probable que les \u00c9tats-Unis restent enferm\u00e9s dans leur position d'escalade, m\u00eame si la diplomatie est \u00e9galement utilis\u00e9e en coulisses, au cas o\u00f9 les \u00c9tats-Unis ne trouveraient pas et n'utiliseraient pas une solution leur permettant de sauver la face.<\/em><\/p>\n

Parall\u00e8lement, en choisissant cette direction vers la puissance, les \u00c9tats-Unis pourraient perdre de vue leur s\u00e9curit\u00e9 m\u00eame, ce qui pourrait, \u00e0 son tour, favoriser et potentiellement acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer le d\u00e9clin, d'o\u00f9 le paradoxe.<\/em><\/p>\n

Article complet 2547 mots - environ 7,5 pages<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

L'acc\u00e8s pour les non-membres ou pour votre forfait est limit\u00e9.
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<\/p>\n

* Il est crucial de ne jamais oublier l'importance de la moralit\u00e9 dans la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re am\u00e9ricaine, par exemple Robert W. McElroy, Moralit\u00e9 et politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re am\u00e9ricaine : Le r\u00f4le de l'\u00e9thique dans les affaires internationales<\/em><\/a>Princeton University Press, 1992.<\/p>\n

---<\/p>\n

\u00c0 propos de l'auteur<\/strong>: Dr\u00a0<\/em>H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix<\/a>M. Lond, PhD (relations internationales), est le directeur de la Red (Team) Analysis Society. Elle est sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9e dans la pr\u00e9vision et l'alerte strat\u00e9giques pour les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale.<\/em><\/p>\n

Image en vedette<\/strong> par tammyatWTI, Domaine Public, Pixabay<\/a><\/p>\n

---<\/p>\n

Bibliographie d\u00e9taill\u00e9e<\/h3>\n

Adizes, Ichak Kalderon, \"Le d\u00e9clin des \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a>\", The WorldPost, Institut Berggruen<\/em> et Le Huffington Post, <\/em>15 mai 2015<\/p>\n

Minist\u00e8re chinois des affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res, \"Le ministre des affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res, Wang Yi, s'est entretenu avec le vice-premier ministre et ministre des affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res allemand, Gabriel.<\/a>\", 15 ao\u00fbt 2017.<\/p>\n

Etzioni, Amitai \"L'Am\u00e9rique perd-elle sa cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 au Moyen-Orient ?<\/a>?\", 26 octobre 2017, L'int\u00e9r\u00eat national<\/em><\/p>\n

Le projet \"Trap\" de Harvard Thucydides<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0Mohammed Arshad, et Matt Spetalnick, \"Exclusif : Les \u00c9tats-Unis poursuivent une diplomatie directe avec la Cor\u00e9e du Nord malgr\u00e9 le refus de Trump.<\/a>\", 1er novembre 2017, Reuters<\/em><\/p>\n

Conseil national du renseignement,\u00a0<\/span>Tendances mondiales : Le paradoxe du progr\u00e8s (GT)<\/a><\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>Bureau du directeur du renseignement national,<\/em>\u00a0(pour la version publique, janvier 2017).<\/span><\/p>\n

Reuters, \"Mme Merkel propose des n\u00e9gociations nucl\u00e9aires \u00e0 l'iranienne pour mettre fin \u00e0 la crise nord-cor\u00e9enne.<\/a>\", 10 septembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Reuters, \"La menace de Trump de \"d\u00e9truire\" la Cor\u00e9e du Nord est une erreur : Merkel<\/a>\", 20 septembre 2017).<\/p>\n

Valse, Kenneth,\u00a0Th\u00e9orie de la politique internationale<\/em>Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.<\/p>\n

Lire un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 de la th\u00e9orie de la valse dans le Korab-Karpowicz, W. Julian, \"R\u00e9alisme politique dans les relations internationales<\/a>\u201c,\u00a0The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy\u00a0<\/em>(\u00c9dition \u00e9t\u00e9 2017), Edward N. Zalta (\u00e9d.).<\/p>\n

Xinhua, La Chine, la Russie et la Cor\u00e9e du Sud appellent \u00e0 la prudence avec la RPDC lors de l'assembl\u00e9e de l'ONU.<\/a>, Global Times<\/em>le 22 septembre 2917.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cet article souligne le caract\u00e8re paradoxal d'un d\u00e9clin am\u00e9ricain, et aborde l'impossibilit\u00e9 pour les \u00c9tats-Unis d'accepter leur disparition en tant que superpuissance. Il applique ce cadre au cas des tensions de 2017 avec la Cor\u00e9e du Nord, et en d\u00e9duit une trajectoire future possible pour la ligne de conduite des \u00c9tats-Unis, ainsi que des leviers possibles concernant ... <\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture \" Le paradoxe du d\u00e9clin des \u00c9tats-Unis... et les tensions avec la Cor\u00e9e du Nord \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,2497,1148,3243,1078,2498],"tags":[61,1789,291,220,2543],"class_list":["post-16058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-china","category-east-asia-security","category-future-wars","category-new-paradigm","category-russia","tag-china","tag-featured","tag-north-korea","tag-russia","tag-u-s-decline","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Paradox of U.S. Decline ... and the Tensions with North Korea • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article addresses the paradox of US 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