{"id":16820,"date":"2017-10-31T09:20:44","date_gmt":"2017-10-31T08:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=16820"},"modified":"2022-11-07T17:13:42","modified_gmt":"2022-11-07T16:13:42","slug":"signal-spanish-stabilisant-repostion-rule-catalonia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/","title":{"rendered":"Signal : L'Espagne stabilise la r\u00e9affirmation de son autorit\u00e9 sur la Catalogne"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align: justify; background-color: #f6f5f5; border-top: 3px solid #ce0022; border-bottom: 3px solid #ce0022; padding: 0.5em; padding-bottom: 0em; margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Impact sur les enjeux et les incertitudes<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">? <span style=\"color: #f4a341;\">\u2782<\/span><\/span><\/strong>&nbsp;Perceptions, r\u00e9actions et interactions en dehors de Barcelone, notamment dans les villes et les zones d'ind\u00e9pendance, ainsi qu'en dehors des grands cercles politiques et de fonctionnaires \"centraux r\u00e9gionaux\" (<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">incertitude critique<\/span>).<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u2798\u2798\u2798 <\/span><span style=\"color: #f4ce42;\">\u2781&nbsp;<\/span>Grande r\u00e9sistance civile pacifique et d\u00e9sob\u00e9issance \u00e0 travers la Catalogne pour l'ind\u00e9pendance<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u2798\u2798\u2798<\/span>&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"color: #f4ce42;\">\u2781&nbsp;<\/span>&nbsp;Les troubles civils en Catalogne contre l'Espagne<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">\u2798\u2799<\/span><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"color: #f4ce42;\">\u2781&nbsp;<\/span>S\u00e9cessions et changements profonds des nations au sein de l'UE... et dans le monde<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nous avons identifi\u00e9 avec les signaux pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents que deux incertitudes \u00e9taient critiques pour voir la stabilisation ou, au contraire, l'escalade, se produire en Catalogne au sujet de son ind\u00e9pendance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">L'un d'eux \u00e9tait la capacit\u00e9 du gouvernement espagnol \u00e0 r\u00e9affirmer sa domination sur la r\u00e9gion en rupture de mani\u00e8re stabilisatrice, notamment sans violence. C'est ce que Madrid a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 faire jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Le second \u00e9tait la volont\u00e9 des partisans d'une Catalogne ind\u00e9pendante de d\u00e9fendre \u00e0 tout prix leur id\u00e9al et leurs objectifs, tout en restant fid\u00e8les \u00e0 leur engagement non violent. Ce n'est pas ce que les autorit\u00e9s politiques au pouvoir semblent avoir fait. Au contraire, elles se sont soumises extr\u00eamement rapidement \u00e0 celles de Madrid, de l'acquiescement des d\u00e9put\u00e9s \u00e0 ne pas se r\u00e9unir, \u00e0 la fuite de l'ex\u00e9cutif catalan, \u00e0 l'annulation par le syndicat d'une gr\u00e8ve g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, \u00e0 l'acceptation de nouvelles \u00e9lections d\u00e9cid\u00e9es par Madrid - qui nient de facto la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de la pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente d\u00e9claration d'ind\u00e9pendance - \u00e0 l'absence de d\u00e9sob\u00e9issance pacifique et civile des fonctionnaires. Si nous cherchons la falsification, pour voir cette soumission rapide se transformer en une prise de position pour l'ind\u00e9pendance, il faudrait imaginer un grand sch\u00e9ma destin\u00e9 \u00e0 bercer Madrid dans la confiance pour permettre l'organisation d'un mouvement massif de d\u00e9sob\u00e9issance civile. Cela semble tr\u00e8s peu probable, bien que cela ne soit bien s\u00fbr pas impossible.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">N\u00e9anmoins, la situation en dehors de Barcelone, notamment dans les villes ind\u00e9pendantistes, ainsi que celle des fonctionnaires et des \u00e9lites en dehors de la ville, devrait \u00e9galement \u00eatre surveill\u00e9e afin de mieux analyser l'avenir, car de tels processus collectifs pourraient effectivement avoir lieu et constituer ainsi une nouvelle incertitude critique.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">En conclusion, le suivi des incertitudes initialement identifi\u00e9es indiquerait que la situation est susceptible de stabiliser la Catalogne, \u00e0 condition que rien ne vienne contrecarrer la tendance actuelle et qu'aucun nouveau d\u00e9veloppement n'ait lieu en dehors de Barcelone et des grands cercles politiques r\u00e9gionaux.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"embedly-card\" data-card-controls=\"0\">\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-spain-politics-catalonia\/spanish-prosecutor-accuses-sacked-catalan-leader-of-rebellion-idUSKBN1CZ0IP\">Le procureur espagnol accuse le leader catalan licenci\u00e9 de r\u00e9bellion<\/a><\/h4>\n<p>BARCELONE\/MADRID (Reuters) - Le procureur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral espagnol a accus\u00e9 le leader catalan Carles Puigdemont de r\u00e9bellion et de s\u00e9dition lundi, alors que l'ancien pr\u00e9sident r\u00e9gional s'est rendu en Belgique avec d'autres membres de son administration \u00e9vinc\u00e9e et y a engag\u00e9 un avocat.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/cdn.embedly.com\/widgets\/platform.js\" charset=\"UTF-8\"><\/script><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Impact sur les enjeux et les incertitudes ? \u2782 Perceptions, r\u00e9actions et interactions en dehors de Barcelone, notamment dans les villes et zones ind\u00e9pendantistes, ainsi qu'en dehors des grands cercles politiques et de fonctionnaires \" r\u00e9gionaux centraux \" (incertitude critique). \u2798\u2798\u2798 \u2781 Grande r\u00e9sistance civile pacifique et d\u00e9sob\u00e9issance \u00e0 travers la Catalogne pour l'ind\u00e9pendance \u2798\u2798\u2798 \u2781 Troubles civils en Catalogne contre l'Espagne \u2798\u2799 \u2781 S\u00e9cessions et changements profonds de nations.... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Signal : L'Espagne stabilise la r\u00e9affirmation de son autorit\u00e9 sur la Catalogne \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2502,3243,2544,1583],"tags":[2560,2549],"class_list":["post-16820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe","category-future-wars","category-horizon-scanning-board","category-analysis-the-future-of-the-modern-state","tag-open-access","tag-signal","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia &#8226; 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\u2782&nbsp;Perceptions, reactions and interactions outside Barcelona, notably in independence towns and areas, as well as outside major &#8220;central regional&#8221; political and civil servant circles (critical uncertainty). \u2798\u2798\u2798 \u2781&nbsp;Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence \u2798\u2798\u2798&nbsp;\u2781&nbsp;&nbsp;Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain \u2798\u2799&nbsp;\u2781&nbsp;Secessions and deep changes of nations &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia\u00a0\u00bb","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilisant-repostion-rule-catalonia\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2017-10-31T08:20:44+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-11-07T16:13:42+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1568,"height":941,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/lighthouse-2307273_1920signed.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4"},"headline":"Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia","datePublished":"2017-10-31T08:20:44+00:00","dateModified":"2022-11-07T16:13:42+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/"},"wordCount":423,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"keywords":["Open Access","Signal"],"articleSection":["Europe","Future Wars","Horizon Scanning Board","Understand the Future of the Modern State"],"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/","name":"Signal : L'Espagne r\u00e9affirme son autorit\u00e9 sur la Catalogne \u2022 Le Red Team Analysis Society","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website"},"datePublished":"2017-10-31T08:20:44+00:00","dateModified":"2022-11-07T16:13:42+00:00","inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/10\/31\/signal-spanish-stabilising-reassertion-rule-catalonia\/"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","description":"Prospective strat\u00e9gique et alerte pr\u00e9coce \uff65 Risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques \u00b7 Sc\u00e9narios","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization","name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Red Team Analysis Society"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/helenelavoix\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/5403964\/admin\/dashboard\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4","name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","description":"est pr\u00e9sidente et fondatrice de The Red Team Analysis Society. 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