{"id":17038,"date":"2017-11-20T13:05:48","date_gmt":"2017-11-20T12:05:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=17038"},"modified":"2024-03-11T10:47:02","modified_gmt":"2024-03-11T09:47:02","slug":"defis-loins-petrodollar-systeme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/11\/20\/challenges-looming-petrodollar-system\/","title":{"rendered":"Les d\u00e9fis du syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

Note de la r\u00e9daction : la Chine a pr\u00e9vu de lancer un contrat de produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s ou contrat \u00e0 terme sur le p\u00e9trole brut<\/a> \u00e0 la\u00a0Bourse internationale de l'\u00e9nergie de Shanghai<\/a> (INE) libell\u00e9e en yuan depuis deux ans. Le contrat devait initialement commencer fin 2015, puis, en septembre 2016, il a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 nouveau report\u00e9 d'un an (Henry Sanderson, Financial Times<\/a>15 septembre 2016). Le contrat devrait maintenant \u00eatre lanc\u00e9 d'ici la fin de 2017 (RT<\/a>25 octobre 2017). En supposant que cela se produise enfin, allons-nous assister \u00e0 une remise en cause de la supr\u00e9matie du dollar, d'autant plus qu'elle est li\u00e9e au p\u00e9trole ? Quel est le syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar qui pourrait ainsi \u00eatre d\u00e9fi\u00e9 ? Comment ce \"syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar\" est-il li\u00e9 \u00e0 la supr\u00e9matie globale du dollar ? Quels sont les acteurs impliqu\u00e9s dans ce changement sp\u00e9cifique possible ? Quel est le r\u00f4le de la Chine ? Ce sont quelques-unes des questions abord\u00e9es ici.<\/em><\/p>\n

Cet article se concentre principalement sur le syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar, qui est au c\u0153ur de la supr\u00e9matie du dollar am\u00e9ricain, et sur les d\u00e9fis qu'il rencontre. En attendant, ces essais commencent \u00e0 esquisser les futurs potentiels du syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire international.<\/p>\n

Alors que nous \u00e9tudions les futurs possibles de la supr\u00e9matie du dollar dans cette s\u00e9rie d'articles, nous pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment<\/a> a soulign\u00e9 que certaines fonctions mon\u00e9taires internationales ont des effets importants non seulement sur le secteur \u00e9conomique priv\u00e9 de l'\u00e9metteur, mais aussi sur sa position internationale en termes de pouvoir. Il s'agit de la fonction de r\u00e9serve de valeur au niveau priv\u00e9 et public et de la fonction commerciale. Dans le cas de la supr\u00e9matie du dollar, le syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar est au c\u0153ur de la fonction commerciale. Nous examinons donc ici en profondeur non seulement son r\u00f4le dans le maintien du statut du dollar en tant que monnaie de r\u00e9serve mondiale, mais aussi les d\u00e9fis auxquels cet arrangement g\u00e9opolitico-\u00e9conomique est actuellement confront\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\n

R\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/strong><\/p>\n

Alors que nous poursuivons notre analyse approfondie des tests de la supr\u00e9matie du dollar am\u00e9ricain afin de pr\u00e9voir l'avenir du syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire international<\/em>\u00a0et les \u00e9ventuels changements politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques qui en d\u00e9coulent, cet article, qui se concentre sur l'un des principaux pivots de l'h\u00e9g\u00e9monie mon\u00e9taire am\u00e9ricaine, analyse le syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar et les d\u00e9fis qui s'y rattachent.<\/em><\/p>\n

Le syst\u00e8me des p\u00e9trodollars est au c\u0153ur de la puissance am\u00e9ricaine. En bref, le syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar est fond\u00e9 sur le fait que si un pays a besoin de p\u00e9trole et que le prix du p\u00e9trole est fix\u00e9 en dollars, ce pays doit poss\u00e9der des dollars ou des actifs libell\u00e9s en dollars pour acheter le p\u00e9trole n\u00e9cessaire. Il r\u00e9sulte d'un accord conclu en 1973 entre le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Richard Nixon et le roi Faisal bin Abdulaziz Al Saud d'Arabie saoudite, selon lequel les \u00c9tats-Unis ont achet\u00e9 du p\u00e9trole saoudien en dollars en \u00e9change de la protection des Saoudiens et de l'achat de mat\u00e9riel militaire am\u00e9ricain. Le syst\u00e8me global a permis aux \u00c9tats-Unis de financer la dette am\u00e9ricaine croissante, soutenant efficacement non seulement les importants d\u00e9ficits des comptes courants de Washington, mais aussi ses diverses op\u00e9rations militaires \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger.<\/em><\/p>\n

Le syst\u00e8me des p\u00e9trodollars est confront\u00e9 \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie d'essais, qui devraient se d\u00e9velopper dans un avenir proche ou moyen. Tout d'abord, les \"rivaux\" g\u00e9opolitiques des \u00c9tats-Unis, tels que l'Iran, le Venezuela ou la Russie, promeuvent et signent des accords commerciaux p\u00e9troliers libell\u00e9s dans des monnaies autres que le dollar. Deuxi\u00e8mement, la Chine favorise probablement la mont\u00e9e du Petroyuan. Deux moteurs principaux, notamment lorsqu'ils agissent ensemble, permettraient \u00e0 cette dynamique de se d\u00e9velopper. Premi\u00e8rement, en s'orientant vers l'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, les \u00c9tats-Unis sont eux-m\u00eames <\/em>de facto acheter moins de p\u00e9trole, ce qui diminue la quantit\u00e9 d'USD en circulation et fragilise le syst\u00e8me, \u00e0 moins que d'autres pays continuent \u00e0 acheter leur p\u00e9trole en USD. C'est le tout premier accord au d\u00e9but du syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar qui est en jeu. Ensuite, et dans le m\u00eame ordre d'id\u00e9es, la Chine est devenue le premier importateur mondial de p\u00e9trole. Elle pourrait donc avoir plus de poids aupr\u00e8s des pays exportateurs, comme l'Arabie Saoudite, pour promouvoir le Yuan. Parall\u00e8lement, la Chine diversifie son portefeuille de fournisseurs, ce qui permet d'\u00e9tendre l'utilisation possible de sa monnaie lors de l'achat de p\u00e9trole.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Les d\u00e9fis du syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar sont soutenus par une s\u00e9rie d'accords commerciaux non li\u00e9s au p\u00e9trole et libell\u00e9s dans des devises autres que le dollar am\u00e9ricain. Les acteurs concern\u00e9s ne sont pas seulement la Chine, la Russie et l'Iran, mais aussi la Turquie et le Japon.<\/em><\/p>\n

En conclusion, nous soulignons que P\u00e9kin, Moscou et T\u00e9h\u00e9ran sont li\u00e9s par une profonde convergence d'int\u00e9r\u00eats qui pourrait conduire \u00e0 une profonde transformation du syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire mondial.<\/em><\/p>\n

Article complet 3723 mots - pdf 17 pages<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

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Image :\u00a0La raffinerie Shell Oil \u00e0 Dusk<\/a> par\u00a0James Daisa<\/a>, Flickr C.C. 2.0\u00a0Certains droits r\u00e9serv\u00e9s<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u00c0 propos de l'auteur<\/strong>: \u00a0Leonardo Frisani<\/a>\u00a0(MA Paris) se concentre actuellement sur les d\u00e9fis \u00e0 la supr\u00e9matie du dollar am\u00e9ricain. Au-del\u00e0, il est sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale et s'int\u00e9resse principalement \u00e0 la g\u00e9opolitique, la macro\u00e9conomie, le changement climatique, l'\u00e9nergie internationale et l'histoire.<\/em><\/p>\n

Principales r\u00e9f\u00e9rences :<\/strong><\/p>\n

Al Gergawi, M. (2017) \"China is Eyeballing a Major Strategic Investment in Saudi Arabia's Oil\", 26 octobre 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 10 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Amadeo, K. (2017) \"Petrodollar : Syst\u00e8me, histoire, comment il se recycle, s'effondrera-t-il ?\u00a0L'\u00e9quilibre<\/em>Le 30 juin 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 4 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Amadeo, K. (2017), \"L'\u00e9conomie de l'Iran : Impact of Nuclear Deal and Sanctions\",\u00a0L'\u00e9quilibre,\u00a0<\/em>26 octobre 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 6 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Bellomo, S. (2017) \"La Cina prepara la sfida ai petrodollari\",\u00a0Il Sole 24 Ore<\/em>Le 7 septembre 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 8 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Blas, J. (2013) \"La Chine devient le premier importateur mondial de p\u00e9trole\",\u00a0Financial Times<\/em>Le 4 mars 2013. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Bryan, B. (2016) \"BP : les \u00c9tats-Unis seront ind\u00e9pendants sur le plan \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique dans 5 ans\",\u00a0Initi\u00e9 aux affaires<\/em>Le 24 mars 2016. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Cohen, Benjamin J. (2015), Le pouvoir de la monnaie. Comprendre la rivalit\u00e9 mon\u00e9taire<\/em>. Princeton : Princeton University Press.<\/p>\n

DiSavino, S. (2017) \"Le p\u00e9trole se stabilise alors que les tensions au Moyen-Orient compensent la hausse de la production am\u00e9ricaine\",\u00a0Reuters<\/em>Le 8 novembre 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 9 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

El Gamal, R. et Lawler, A. (2017) \"Exclusif : La Chine offre d'acheter 5 % de Saudi Aramco directement - sources\", R<\/em>euters<\/em>Le 16 octobre 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 11 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Frankel, J. (2011), \"The rise of the renminbi as international currency : Pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents historiques\",\u00a0Vox<\/em>, 10 octobre 2011. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 8 novembre 2017<\/p>\n

Meredith, S. (2017), \"La Chine va \"contraindre\" l'Arabie saoudite \u00e0 faire le commerce du p\u00e9trole en yuan - et cela va affecter le dollar am\u00e9ricain\",\u00a0CNBC,\u00a0<\/em>11 octobre 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 8 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Pizzi, M. (2014) \"La Russie et la Chine signent un accord pour contourner le dollar am\u00e9ricain\",\u00a0Al Jazeera Am\u00e9rique<\/em>Le 20 mai 2014. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Puzzanghera, J. (2013) \"La Chine demande que le dollar soit remplac\u00e9 comme monnaie de r\u00e9serve mondiale\",\u00a0Los Angeles Times<\/em>Le 14 octobre 2013. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Qiang, S. et Xiaokun, L. (2010) \"China, Russia quit dollar\",\u00a0China Daily<\/em>, 24 novembre 2010, Consult\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Qingqing, C. (2017) \"Boom des relations commerciales entre la Chine et la Russie\",\u00a0The Global Times<\/em>Le 30 octobre 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 12 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Personnel de Reuters (2013) \"UPDATE 4-Les puissances \u00e9mergentes Chine, Br\u00e9sil s'orientent vers un commerce non dollar\", 26 mars 2013. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Reuters Staff (2017) \"La Russie est le premier fournisseur de p\u00e9trole de la Chine pour le quatri\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif en juin, la plus longue p\u00e9riode jamais enregistr\u00e9e\", R<\/em>euters<\/em>Le 24 juillet 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 9 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Personnel de Reuters (2017) \"Le Venezuela publie les prix du p\u00e9trole en monnaie chinoise pour \u00e9viter le dollar am\u00e9ricain\",\u00a0Reuters,\u00a0<\/em>15 septembre 2017. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 6 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Saul, J. et Hafezi, P. (2014) \"Iran, Russia working to seal $20 bln oil-for-goods deal - sources\",\u00a0Reuters<\/em>2 avril 2014. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2017, 5 janvier 2017.<\/p>\n

Valantin, J. (2016) \"L'Iran, la Chine et la nouvelle route de la soie\",\u00a0The Red Team Analysis Society<\/em>Le 4 janvier 2016. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Valantin, J. (2016) \"La Chine, la Russie et la nouvelle route de la soie en Asie centrale : la grande co-habilitation\",\u00a0The Red Team Analysis Society<\/em>Le 7 mars 2016. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Wong, A. (2016) \"The Untold Story Behind Behind Saudi Arabia's 41-Year U.S. Debt Secret\",\u00a0Bloomberg,<\/em>Le 31 mai 2016. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

Wong, E. et Singer, N. (2011) \"Currency Agreement for Japan and China\",\u00a0New York Times<\/em>, 26 d\u00e9cembre 2011. R\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 : 14 novembre 2017.<\/p>\n

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Cet article se concentre principalement sur le syst\u00e8me p\u00e9trodollar, qui est au c\u0153ur de la supr\u00e9matie du dollar am\u00e9ricain, et sur les d\u00e9fis qu'il rencontre. En attendant, ces essais commencent \u00e0 esquisser les futurs potentiels du syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire international.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":521,"featured_media":17059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,2497,1335,2546],"tags":[61,1978,1789,91,792,345,220,1042,446,1863,1854],"class_list":["post-17038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-china","category-energy-security","category-us-dollar-supremacy","tag-china","tag-energy","tag-featured","tag-iran","tag-japan","tag-oil","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-turkey","tag-us","tag-usd","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nChallenges Looming over the Petrodollar System • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article focuses mainly on the 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