{"id":18204,"date":"2018-06-04T16:12:50","date_gmt":"2018-06-04T14:12:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=18204"},"modified":"2024-03-11T10:43:39","modified_gmt":"2024-03-11T09:43:39","slug":"le-futur-r%c3%b4le-r%c3%a9gional-iranien-le-syst%c3%a8me-politique-iranien-iranien","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2018\/06\/04\/the-future-of-irans-regional-role-the-islamic-revolution-and-irans-political-system\/","title":{"rendered":"L'avenir du r\u00f4le r\u00e9gional de l'Iran - La r\u00e9volution islamique et le syst\u00e8me politique iranien"},"content":{"rendered":"

La d\u00e9cision de Trump de se retirer du Plan d'action global conjoint (PAGC, plus connu sous le nom de \"Iran Nuclear Deal\") est un \u00e9l\u00e9ment hautement d\u00e9stabilisant dans un sc\u00e9nario r\u00e9gional d\u00e9j\u00e0 instable caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 par les guerres en Syrie et au Y\u00e9men, l'interminable question isra\u00e9lo-palestinienne, le clivage entre le Qatar et les autres pays du Golfe (principalement l'Arabie saoudite et les \u00c9mirats arabes unis), l'incertitude politique au Liban et les tensions sociopolitiques mena\u00e7ant continuellement de d\u00e9chirer l'Irak. L'Iran est per\u00e7u comme le d\u00e9nominateur commun de toutes ces questions, du moins dans une certaine mesure.<\/p>\n

Le r\u00f4le g\u00e9opolitique crucial que joue T\u00e9h\u00e9ran, ainsi que les probl\u00e8mes int\u00e9rieurs auxquels elle est confront\u00e9e, nous am\u00e8nent \u00e0 nous interroger sur l'avenir de la position r\u00e9gionale de la R\u00e9publique islamique \u00e0 moyen terme (par exemple, dans 3 \u00e0 5 ans). Cette question est d'une importance cruciale pour pr\u00e9voir l'avenir d'une r\u00e9gion aussi centrale que le Moyen-Orient. Toutefois, pour r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 l'avenir, il faut consid\u00e9rer le pass\u00e9 avec attention, notamment pour identifier les facteurs et les dynamiques cruciales et agissantes.<\/p>\n

En passant en revue l'histoire de l'Iran avant 1979 pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment<\/a>Cet article sera donc centr\u00e9 sur la R\u00e9publique islamique d'Iran fond\u00e9e par l'ayatollah Khomeini en 1979 et ses principaux aspects.<\/p>\n

Nous identifierons notamment comme facteurs cl\u00e9s ayant un impact continu sur les dynamiques actuelles et futures, d'abord, la relation entre le pouvoir politico-religieux et le peuple ordinaire. Nous nous tournerons ensuite vers le nouveau syst\u00e8me politique de l'Iran, en identifiant o\u00f9 se situe le pouvoir dans cette th\u00e9ocratie et son \u00c9tat islamique chiite. Nous examinons la mani\u00e8re dont les dirigeants consolident le pouvoir et constatons que les ennemis \u00e9trangers, d'une part, et la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 int\u00e9rieure, d'autre part, sont les cl\u00e9s du pouvoir int\u00e9rieur. Enfin, nous abordons les relations \u00e9trang\u00e8res de l'Iran, notamment avec Washington, en soulignant que, jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, l'une des principales cons\u00e9quences des menaces am\u00e9ricaines contre l'Iran a \u00e9t\u00e9 de favoriser les conservateurs.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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A propos de l'auteur : \u00a0<\/strong>Leonardo Frisani<\/a>\u00a0(MA Paris) se concentre actuellement sur les d\u00e9fis de l'avenir de l'Iran au Moyen-Orient. Par ailleurs, il est sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 en histoire europ\u00e9enne et russe et s'int\u00e9resse principalement \u00e0 la g\u00e9opolitique, \u00e0 la macro\u00e9conomie, au changement climatique et \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie internationale.<\/em><\/p>\n

Image :\u00a0R\u00e9volution iranienne de 1978 - rang\u00e9e d'hommes tenant des photos de Khomeini<\/a> - Auteur inconnu - Domaine public en Iran via Wikimedia Commons<\/p>\n

R\u00e9f\u00e9rences<\/h4>\n

Abrahamian, Ervand (2008)\u00a0Une histoire de l'Iran moderne<\/em>Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n

Amir-Moezzi, M. A., \"Shi'ite Doctrine\", Encyclop\u00e9die<\/em> Iranica<\/em>, 20 juillet 2005.<\/p>\n

Axworthy, Michael (2008)\u00a0L'Iran : L'empire de l'esprit<\/em>Une histoire de Zoroastre \u00e0 nos jours<\/em>Londres : Penguin Books.<\/p>\n

Foltz, Richard (2015)\u00a0L'Iran dans l'histoire mondiale<\/em>Oxford : Oxford University Press.<\/p>\n

Skocpol, T. \"Rentier State and Shi'a Islam in the Iranian Revoution\",\u00a0Th\u00e9orie et soci\u00e9t\u00e9<\/em>, Vol.11, No. 3 (mai 1982), 265-283.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La d\u00e9cision de Trump de se retirer du Plan d'action global conjoint (JCPOA, plus connu sous le nom d'accord sur le nucl\u00e9aire iranien) est un \u00e9l\u00e9ment hautement d\u00e9stabilisant dans un sc\u00e9nario r\u00e9gional d\u00e9j\u00e0 instable, caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 par les guerres en Syrie et au Y\u00e9men, l'interminable question isra\u00e9lo-palestinienne, le foss\u00e9 entre le Qatar et les autres pays du Golfe (principalement l'Arabie saoudite et ... <\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture \" L'avenir du r\u00f4le r\u00e9gional de l'Iran - La r\u00e9volution islamique et le syst\u00e8me politique iranien \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":521,"featured_media":18214,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,2499],"tags":[2641,1789,91,190],"class_list":["post-18204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","tag-drivers","tag-featured","tag-iran","tag-scenarios","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Future of Iran\u2019s Regional Role - The Islamic Revolution and Iran's Political System • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article is the second of our new series aiming at foreseeing the future of Iran's regional role over the medium term (3 to 5 years). 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