{"id":209,"date":"2019-04-25T09:45:24","date_gmt":"2019-04-25T07:45:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=209"},"modified":"2021-10-01T19:05:41","modified_gmt":"2021-10-01T17:05:41","slug":"cr%c3%a9er-everstate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/04\/25\/creating-everstate\/","title":{"rendered":"Cr\u00e9er Everstate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans notre monde contemporain du d\u00e9but du 21e si\u00e8cle, l'hyper-\u00e9tat est un \u00e9tat imaginaire cr\u00e9\u00e9 pour identifier et imaginer diff\u00e9rents futurs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il sera utilis\u00e9 pour repr\u00e9senter tous les \u00c9tats et chaque \u00c9tat. L'inverse est donc un \u00e9tat de type id\u00e9al. C'est aussi une abr\u00e9viation du mod\u00e8le qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 construit pour repr\u00e9senter la dynamique et les processus qui sous-tendent l'\u00e9volution d'un \u00c9tat, en tant que forme politique. Ce mod\u00e8le est un graphique, une carte ou un r\u00e9seau dynamique, comme l'explique le <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Mod\u00e9lisation des risques et incertitudes dynamiques (1) : Cartographie des risques et incertitudes (ouvre un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2018\/11\/05\/cartographie-risque-et-incertitude-1\/\" target=\"_blank\">Mod\u00e9lisation des risques et des incertitudes dynamiques (1) : Cartographie des risques et des incertitudes<\/a> et <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Mod\u00e9lisation pour les risques et incertitudes dynamiques (2) : Cartographie d&#039;un r\u00e9seau dynamique (ouvre un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2011\/11\/13\/creer-le-modele-de-la-carte-a-reseau-dynamique-partie-2\/\" target=\"_blank\">Mod\u00e9lisation des risques et incertitudes dynamiques (2) : Cartographie d'un r\u00e9seau dynamique<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">L'expertise de RTAS mise en avant sur la cha\u00eene de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision italienne LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Au-del\u00e0 de la g\u00e9opolitique : Comprendre les pressions critiques qui remod\u00e8lent notre monde.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/12\/chronicles-hyperwar-ai-new-energy-frontier-1\/\">Chroniques de l'hyperwar - AI : L'IA, nouvelle fronti\u00e8re \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique (1)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, m\u00eame si nous travaillons avec un type id\u00e9al, les \u00e9v\u00e9nements ne se d\u00e9roulent pas dans le vide mais d\u00e9pendent et sont contraints par une foule de facteurs sp\u00e9cifiques, notamment la g\u00e9ographie, le milieu \u00e9cologique et l'histoire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, pour rendre notre pr\u00e9vision r\u00e9aliste, reproductible et adaptable \u00e0 des pays existants sp\u00e9cifiques, certains crit\u00e8res ont \u00e9t\u00e9 identifi\u00e9s puis pr\u00e9cis\u00e9s : nous leur donnons des valeurs pour l'hyper\u00e9valuation. Ces caract\u00e9ristiques initiales influenceront \u00e9galement ce qui se passera. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les lecteurs et les utilisateurs des Chroniques d'Everstate peuvent imaginer de modifier ces crit\u00e8res pour tester les futurs potentiels des pays qui les int\u00e9ressent. Ils peuvent appliquer des crit\u00e8res r\u00e9els pour identifier des futurs plausibles pour des pays r\u00e9els.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Par exemple, si la g\u00e9ographie est choisie comme crit\u00e8re, alors la valeur peut \u00eatre : terres dans la ceinture tropicale en Asie du Sud, ou terres en Am\u00e9rique du Nord. La taille du pays devra \u00e9galement \u00eatre pr\u00e9cis\u00e9e, etc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour identifier les crit\u00e8res, nous avons utilis\u00e9 une \"<a title=\"R\u00e9examen de l&#039;analyse d&#039;influence\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2011\/12\/04\/revisiting-influence-analysis-2\/\" target=\"_blank\">une analyse d'influence revisit\u00e9e<\/a>\u201c. Nous expliquons ensuite <a title=\"Variables, valeurs et coh\u00e9rence dans les r\u00e9seaux dynamiques\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2011\/12\/18\/d%c3%a9termination-crit%c3%a8res-valeurs-et-coh%c3%a9rence\/\" target=\"_blank\">comment attribuer des valeurs pour chaque crit\u00e8re<\/a> dans le cas sp\u00e9cifique des r\u00e9seaux dynamiques. Nous soulignons enfin le <a title=\"Les caract\u00e9ristiques d&#039;Everstate\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2011\/12\/19\/caract%c3%a9ristiques-inverses\/\" target=\"_blank\">les crit\u00e8res retenus et leurs valeurs<\/a> pour Everstate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ensuite, nous expliquons comment la carte est utilis\u00e9e pour <a title=\"Construire le r\u00e9cit d&#039;un sc\u00e9nario de prospective avec Ego Networks\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/01\/02\/utilisation-de-reseaux-ecologiques-dans-des-scenarios-de-prospective\/\" target=\"_blank\">construire le r\u00e9cit en utilisant les r\u00e9seaux d'ego<\/a>et l'appliquer pour expliquer comment les valeurs s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9es ouvrent la voie \u00e0 l'inversion.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous commen\u00e7ons alors \u00e0 dire <a title=\"Everstate : Mise en sc\u00e8ne (I)\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/01\/02\/setting-the-stage-1\/\" target=\"_blank\">l'histoire d'Everstate<\/a>tout en montrant comment le faire.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Everstate est un \u00c9tat imaginaire dans notre monde contemporain du d\u00e9but du 21e si\u00e8cle, cr\u00e9\u00e9 pour identifier et imaginer divers futurs. Il sera utilis\u00e9 pour repr\u00e9senter tous les \u00e9tats et chaque \u00e9tat. Everstate est donc un \u00e9tat de type id\u00e9al. C'est aussi un raccourci pour le mod\u00e8le qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 construit pour repr\u00e9senter la dynamique ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/04\/25\/creating-everstate\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Cr\u00e9ation de Everstate \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22075,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,2860],"tags":[188,1955,88,202,287,1509,354,113,212,236,139],"class_list":["post-209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-everstates-futures","category-featured","tag-analysis","tag-future-of-nation-state","tag-government","tag-ideal-type","tag-instability","tag-methodology","tag-modern-nation-state","tag-protest","tag-strategic-foresight-and-warning","tag-strategic-warning","tag-the-chronicles-of-everstate","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Creating Everstate &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/04\/25\/cr\u00e9er-everstate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Creating Everstate &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Everstate is an imaginary state in our contemporary world of the beginning of the 21st century, created to identify and imagine various futures. It will be used to represent all states and each state. Everstate is thus an ideal-type state. It is also a shorthand for the model that was constructed to represent the dynamics &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Creating Everstate\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/04\/25\/cr\u00e9er-everstate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-04-25T07:45:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-01T17:05:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/Garden-of-Delights-1-1568.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/25\\\/creating-everstate\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/25\\\/creating-everstate\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Creating Everstate\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-04-25T07:45:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-01T17:05:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/25\\\/creating-everstate\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":334,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/25\\\/creating-everstate\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/Garden-of-Delights-1-1568.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"analysis\",\"future of nation-state\",\"government\",\"ideal-type\",\"instability\",\"methodology\",\"modern nation-state\",\"protest\",\"strategic foresight and warning\",\"strategic warning\",\"The Chronicles of Everstate\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Creating Everstate\",\"Featured\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/25\\\/creating-everstate\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/25\\\/creating-everstate\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/25\\\/creating-everstate\\\/\",\"name\":\"Creating Everstate &#8226; 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Elle est titulaire d'un doctorat en \u00e9tudes politiques et d'une ma\u00eetrise en politique internationale de l'Asie (avec distinction) de la School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), Universit\u00e9 de Londres, ainsi que d'une ma\u00eetrise en finance (major de promotion, Grande \u00c9cole, France).\r\n\r\nExperte en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte pr\u00e9coce, notamment pour les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale, elle combine 30 ans d'exp\u00e9rience en relations internationales et pr\u00e8s de 20 ans en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte. Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/Garden-of-Delights-1-1568.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=209"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}