{"id":23052,"date":"2019-06-03T11:58:15","date_gmt":"2019-06-03T09:58:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=23052"},"modified":"2019-09-03T18:31:42","modified_gmt":"2019-09-03T16:31:42","slug":"inondations-midwest-guerre-commerciale-pandemie-grippe-porcine-grande-tempete-agricole-alimentaire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/06\/03\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\/","title":{"rendered":"Les inondations du Midwest, la guerre commerciale et la pand\u00e9mie de grippe porcine : La super temp\u00eate agricole et alimentaire est l\u00e0 !"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">En mai 2019, pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois en trois mois, le centre des \u00c9tats-Unis est frapp\u00e9 par des inondations record. Ces inondations touchent l'Oklahoma, l'Arkansas, le Missouri, l'Illinois, le Nebraska et l'Iowa (Susannah Cullinane, Hollie Silvermane, Sheena Jones, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2019\/05\/26\/us\/severe-weather-toll-outlook-wxc\/index.html\">Le centre des \u00c9tats-Unis se remet d'une semaine de temps meurtrier<\/a>\u201d, <em>CNN<\/em>le 26 mai 2019). \u00c0 Van Buren (Arkansas), le niveau du fleuve Arkansas a atteint 38,3 pieds, battant le record de 1945 \u00e0 38,1. Ces inondations font suite \u00e0 celles historiques de mars 2019 (Jean-Michel Valantin, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/04\/15\/bombe-cyclone-sur-le-midwest-inondations-la-guerre-commerciale-et-la-future-agriculture-super-temp%c3%aate\/\">Cyclone \u00e0 la bombe dans le Midwest : Les inondations, la guerre commerciale et la super temp\u00eate agricole \u00e0 venir<\/a>\u201d, <em>L'analyse rouge (\u00e9quipe)<\/em>le 15 avril 2019). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/e4-fcjTv2tU?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">L'expertise de RTAS mise en avant sur la cha\u00eene de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision italienne LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Au-del\u00e0 de la g\u00e9opolitique : Comprendre les pressions critiques qui remod\u00e8lent notre monde.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">VIGILANCE - Y\u00e9men et Arabie Saoudite<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">Impacts de la menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : l'accord commercial entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l'UE, le Parlement europ\u00e9en et l'avenir de l'Europe<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Entre-temps, la saison a \u00e9t\u00e9 exceptionnellement humide. En cons\u00e9quence, les agriculteurs d\u00e9j\u00e0 malmen\u00e9s sont confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des probl\u00e8mes gigantesques pour planter les r\u00e9coltes de ma\u00efs et de soja de 2019. Au milieu de ces conditions extr\u00eames, le Texas, le Tennessee, l'Arkansas, la Louisiane et l'Oklahoma traversent une saison de tornades exceptionnellement violente. Par exemple, le 24 mai 2019, Jefferson City, la capitale de l'\u00c9tat du Missouri, a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9vast\u00e9e par une tornade monstrueuse, de pr\u00e8s d'un kilom\u00e8tre de large, avec des vents de pointe atteignant pr\u00e8s de 160 miles \u00e0 l'heure. Le matin, la ville \u00e9tait en ruine (\"<a href=\"https:\/\/weather.com\/news\/news\/2019-05-23-jefferson-city-missouri-tornado\">Tornade qui a ravag\u00e9 la ville de Jefferson, Missouri, class\u00e9e EF3 ; pr\u00e8s de 2 douzaines de personnes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 bless\u00e9es<\/a>&nbsp;\u00bb, <em>M\u00e9t\u00e9o.com<\/em>23 mai 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XrbP6n6BELc?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements surviennent apr\u00e8s les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts profonds et durables caus\u00e9s par les inondations catastrophiques de mars 2019. Cependant, ces destructions tr\u00e8s impressionnantes ne sont que la dimension visible de la \"longue catastrophe\" qui se d\u00e9roule dans leur sillage. Cette longue et complexe catastrophe r\u00e9sulte de la combinaison du ralentissement de l'agriculture induit par la s\u00e9rie historique d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements climatiques extr\u00eames dans la ceinture agricole avec la guerre commerciale entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Chine (Valantin, ibid). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De plus, ces facteurs se combinent \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie de peste porcine africaine qui se propage rapidement. La pand\u00e9mie, qui a d\u00e9but\u00e9 en ao\u00fbt 2018, a tu\u00e9 au moins un million et demi de porcs en Chine et se propage maintenant en Asie (Dennis Normile, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/news\/2019\/05\/african-swine-fever-keeps-spreading-asia-threatening-food-security\">La peste porcine africaine continue de se propager en Asie, mena\u00e7ant la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 alimentaire<\/a>\u201d, <em>Science<\/em>le 19 mai 2019). Parmi les cons\u00e9quences agricoles et alimentaires en cascade, la diminution du nombre de porcs entra\u00eene une diminution de la demande de soja, car les produits \u00e0 base de soja font partie du r\u00e9gime alimentaire des porcs (de Bloomberg, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/politics\/article\/3006226\/how-chinas-swine-fever-outbreak-upending-global-soybean-markets\">Comment l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de peste porcine en Chine bouleverse les march\u00e9s du soja<\/a>\u201d, <em>Le Morning Post de la Chine du Sud<\/em>15 avril 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"#mailpoet_form-3\">Souscrivez pour \u00eatre inform\u00e9 de nos nouveaux articles (gratuit)<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette combinaison extr\u00eamement violente de facteurs climatiques, internationaux et sanitaires cr\u00e9e-t-elle un type de pression tr\u00e8s particulier sur le Midwest ? En cons\u00e9quence, le statut du Midwest dans une \u00e9conomie mondialis\u00e9e est-il remis en question ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Afin de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 ces questions connexes, il est primordial de comprendre que ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements signalent \u00e9galement que nous entrons dans une \u00e8re de changement permanent, n\u00e9cessitant une adaptation constante au changement climatique et \u00e0 la \"longue urgence\" qui en d\u00e9coule (James Howard Kunstler,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/kunstler.com\/books\/the-long-emergency\/\"><em>La longue urgence, survivre aux catastrophes convergentes du XXIe si\u00e8cle<\/em><\/a>, 2005).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le Midwest comme fronti\u00e8re catastrophique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inondations et tornades : une catastrophe durable<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis mars 2019, le Midwest conna\u00eet une situation que nous qualifions ici de \"longue catastrophe\". Elle a commenc\u00e9 lorsque, entre le 14 et le 20 mars 2019, un \"cyclone bombe\" d'une puissance historique, combin\u00e9 \u00e0 la fonte des neiges, a d\u00e9vast\u00e9 le Colorado et le centre des \u00c9tats-Unis, en particulier la \"ceinture de fermes\" du Midwest de l'Iowa et du Nebraska, du Dakota du Sud et du Kansas (Phil McCausland, \"&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/us-news\/midwest-flooding-inundates-farms-rural-towns-threaten-livelihoods-futures-n986071\">Les inondations du Midwest inondent les fermes et les villes rurales, mena\u00e7ant les moyens de subsistance et l'avenir<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em>Nouvelles de la NBC<\/em>le 22 mars 2019). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En cons\u00e9quence, ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques ont d\u00e9clench\u00e9 d'immenses inondations, qui ont d\u00e9truit plus d'un million d'acres (405 000 hectares). Ces inondations ont des cons\u00e9quences directes imm\u00e9diates, car elles noient les terres arables, d\u00e9truisent les stocks de cultures, les routes, les maisons, les autoroutes, les chemins de fer, les ponts, les granges, les voitures, les camions, etc. (Humeyra Pamuk, P.J Huffstutter, Tom Polansek, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-weather-agriculture\/us-farmers-face-devastation-following-midwest-floods-idUSKCN1R12J0\">Les agriculteurs am\u00e9ricains face \u00e0 la d\u00e9vastation suite aux inondations du Midwest<\/a>\u201d,&nbsp;<em>Reuters<\/em>20 mars 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7_tj1iZlojg?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tout au long des mois d'avril et mai, la situation s'est aggrav\u00e9e. En effet, d'avril 2018 \u00e0 avril 2019, la r\u00e9gion a \u00e9galement connu les 12 mois les plus humides d'affil\u00e9e depuis 1895. Les sols d\u00e9tremp\u00e9s ne peuvent plus absorber l'eau, qui s'\u00e9coule dans les rivi\u00e8res en crue, comme l'Arkansas, le Mississippi et le Missouri. Le 21 mai, apr\u00e8s 136 jours, la crue du Mississippi a battu le record d'inondation de 1927 (Steve Hardy, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theadvocate.com\/baton_rouge\/news\/environment\/article_667ae3ea-7bee-11e9-836b-3bcfce279daa.html\">Le fleuve Mississippi bat le record du stade de crue \u00e9tabli il y a 92 ans ; voici le moment o\u00f9 l'eau pourrait descendre<\/a>&nbsp;\u00bb, <em>L'avocat<\/em>Le 21 mai 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/zC2Q6FslZzg?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vers un isolement climatique du Midwest ? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En outre, cela signifie que la combinaison des pertes agricoles, commerciales et financi\u00e8res aggrave la situation des infrastructures de transport dans le Midwest. En effet, le transport fluvial, ferroviaire et routier de vrac lourd est en tr\u00e8s mauvais \u00e9tat, en raison de 30 ann\u00e9es de gestion et d'investissements insuffisants. Les inondations aggravent l'\u00e9tat des infrastructures vitales, alors que celles-ci relient les agriculteurs du Midwest aux march\u00e9s mondiaux (David Hoppelman, ibid). Cette situation est aggrav\u00e9e par une s\u00e9rie historique de tornades qui ont d\u00e9vast\u00e9 le Midwest, 13 jours d'affil\u00e9e (Amanda Schmidt, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.accuweather.com\/en\/weather-news\/12-straight-days-of-tornadoes-shatter-twister-record-leave-heartland-storm-weary\/70008393\">Mai 2019 pourrait \u00eatre un mois historique pour les tornades, apr\u00e8s une s\u00e9rie de tornades sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent qui se termine finalement apr\u00e8s 13 jours<\/a>\", Accuweather, 31 mai 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le Midwest pris entre les inondations et la pand\u00e9mie asiatique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Retard des r\u00e9coltes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette longue catastrophe est en train de d\u00e9vaster l'agriculture du Midwest. Seule 49% de la superficie de ma\u00efs est plant\u00e9e, ce qui contraste fortement avec les 78% de 2018 \u00e0 la m\u00eame \u00e9poque de l'ann\u00e9e. On peut en dire autant du soja : 19% de superficie sont plant\u00e9s, alors que 53% l'\u00e9taient en 2018. De mal en pis, seules 5% de la culture de soja poussent maintenant \u00e0 partir du sol, contre 24% en 2018 (\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nass.usda.gov\/Publications\/Todays_Reports\/reports\/prog2119.pdf\">Progr\u00e8s des cultures<\/a>\u201d, <em>USDA<\/em>20 mai 2019). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\">Adh\u00e9rez et devenez membre<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comme il\nse produit, cela fait suite aux d\u00e9g\u00e2ts de la s\u00e9rie de temp\u00eates de mars, et leurs impacts sont\nsi importante en raison de la perte des stocks. Ceux-ci ont \u00e9t\u00e9 accumul\u00e9s depuis\n2018, lorsque les effets de la guerre commerciale lanc\u00e9e contre la Chine ont conduit P\u00e9kin \u00e0\nrenforcer ses propres barri\u00e8res tarifaires \u00e0 l'encontre du soja am\u00e9ricain, tout en les abaissant dans\nen faveur de la production br\u00e9silienne (Jean-Michel Valantin, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2018\/10\/08\/leconomie-entre-le-marteau-climatique-et-le-cas-de-la-guerre-commerciale-et-du-diable-dans-le-soja\/\">L'\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine, entre le marteau climatique et l'enclume de la guerre commerciale - Le\nL'affaire des cultures de soja aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a>\u201d,&nbsp;<em>L'analyse rouge (\u00e9quipe)\nSoci\u00e9t\u00e9<\/em>8 octobre 2018).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">R\u00e9coltes d\u00e9truites<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans d'autres\nmots, les inondations ont d\u00e9truit la partie non vendue des r\u00e9coltes de 2018, alors que\nmettant en danger les r\u00e9coltes de 2019. Ils ont \u00e9galement d\u00e9truit le capital financier potentiel\nles stocks auraient pu \u00eatre destin\u00e9s aux agriculteurs. En outre, les inondations ont neutralis\u00e9\nles taxes potentielles que la vente des actions de 2018 aurait repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es pour la\nsecteur public et donc pour l'entretien des infrastructures (Irwin Redlener,\n\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/energy-environment\/437550-ignoring-warning-signs-made-historic-midwest-floods-more-dangerous\">Le co\u00fbt mortel des infrastructures d\u00e9faillantes lors des inondations historiques du Midwest<\/a>\u201d,&nbsp;<em>The Hill<\/em>5 avril 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Entrer en pand\u00e9mie<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il se trouve qu'un nouveau facteur vient encore bouleverser la situation des producteurs de soja du Midwest. Depuis ao\u00fbt 2018, une pand\u00e9mie de grippe porcine africaine a attaqu\u00e9 l'industrie porcine chinoise, avec ses 400 millions de porcs domestiques (Dennis Normile, Ibid.). Un rapport de la troisi\u00e8me banque n\u00e9erlandaise, Rabobank, sugg\u00e8re que dans le pire des cas, jusqu'\u00e0 200 millions de porcs pourraient \u00eatre menac\u00e9s (Orange Wang, Chad Bray, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/global-economy\/article\/3008729\/chinas-african-swine-fever-outbreak-and-us-trade-war-combine\">L'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de peste porcine africaine en Chine et la guerre commerciale am\u00e9ricaine se combinent pour cr\u00e9er une temp\u00eate parfaite pour l'\u00e9conomie chinoise<\/a>\u201d, <em>Le Morning Post de la Chine du Sud<\/em>3 mai 2019). Cela repr\u00e9senterait plus de porcs que la totalit\u00e9 du parc europ\u00e9en et am\u00e9ricain. En attendant, la maladie se propage au Vietnam, au Cambodge, au Myanmar et en Russie (Dennis Normile, Ibid.). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/evtoBx11ZoM?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L'importance du porc dans le r\u00e9gime alimentaire chinois est primordiale car c'est la viande de base pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9e de la nation forte de 1,4 milliard d'habitants. Sachant que les agriculteurs nourrissent les porcs avec des produits \u00e0 base de soja, cela fait de la Chine le principal importateur de soja. Si la production porcine chinoise devait \u00eatre r\u00e9duite de 30%, la demande de soja pourrait alors diminuer de 4,2% selon HSBC, sachant que l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie chinoise et la pand\u00e9mie asiatique dureront plusieurs ann\u00e9es (Orange Wang, Chad Bray, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/global-economy\/article\/3008729\/chinas-african-swine-fever-outbreak-and-us-trade-war-combine\">L'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de peste porcine africaine en Chine et la guerre commerciale am\u00e9ricaine se combinent pour cr\u00e9er une temp\u00eate parfaite pour l'\u00e9conomie chinoise<\/a>\u201d, <em>Le Morning Post de la Chine du Sud<\/em>3 mai 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les cavaliers de la temp\u00eate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En d'autres termes, la production de soja du Midwest, d\u00e9j\u00e0 maigre en 2019, risque d'\u00eatre touch\u00e9e par la baisse des prix due \u00e0 la mort massive de porcs asiatiques. Ce risque est induit par la mortalit\u00e9 constante des porcs chinois et asiatiques, alors que la r\u00e9colte de soja am\u00e9ricaine atteindra une quantit\u00e9 finale. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si les prix du soja et du ma\u00efs devaient augmenter en 2019, en raison du retard des r\u00e9coltes, il faut se demander si cette hausse compensera r\u00e9ellement la baisse de la demande due au taux \u00e9lev\u00e9 de mortalit\u00e9 des porcs en Chine, ainsi qu'au Vietnam, au Myanmar, au Laos et en Russie. Il se trouve que les r\u00e9coltes et les exportations de soja br\u00e9silien sont \u00e0 des niveaux records, en raison de la faiblesse de la monnaie br\u00e9silienne. (Roberto Samora, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.agriculture.com\/markets\/newswire\/brazil-corn-exports-soar-as-weak-currency-high-prices-boost-deals\">Les r\u00e9coltes br\u00e9siliennes s'envolent, la faiblesse de la monnaie et les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s renforcent l'accord<\/a>\u201c, <em>Une agriculture qui r\u00e9ussit<\/em>, 30\/05\/ 2019). Il faut \u00e9galement ajouter que la Chine applique des droits de douane favorables aux importations de soja non am\u00e9ricaines, en r\u00e9action aux droits de douane \u00e9lev\u00e9s qu'elle impose sur les importations de soja am\u00e9ricaines, dans le contexte de la guerre commerciale entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Chine (Jean-Michel Valantin, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2018\/10\/08\/leconomie-entre-le-marteau-climatique-et-le-cas-de-la-guerre-commerciale-et-du-diable-dans-le-soja\/\">L'\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine, entre le marteau climatique et l'enclume de la guerre commerciale - Le cas de la culture du soja aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a>\u201d,&nbsp;<em>The Red Team Analysis Society<\/em>8 octobre 2018). Ainsi, il pourrait y avoir une abondance de soja sur le march\u00e9 international, alors que la demande asiatique va continuer \u00e0 diminuer. Cette pression potentielle sur les prix aurait alors lieu au moment de la succession d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements climatiques extr\u00eames de 2019, et de la guerre commerciale entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Chine. Il faut ajouter que les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts caus\u00e9s aux infrastructures, par la destruction des granges, des silos, des routes, des autoroutes, des voies fluviales, isolent \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 le Midwest des march\u00e9s mondiaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cela se produit \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 les inondations, le froid et la chaleur ont des r\u00e9percussions sur toute la plan\u00e8te. Par exemple, l'Australie, l'un des producteurs mondiaux de bl\u00e9, importe maintenant, en raison d'une tr\u00e8s mauvaise r\u00e9colte qui fait suite \u00e0 de violents \u00e9pisodes de s\u00e9cheresse et d'inondations (Colin Packham, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/australia-wheat\/australia-to-import-first-wheat-in-12-years-as-drought-bites-idUSL4N22R07N\">L'Australie va importer du bl\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis 12 ans, en raison de la s\u00e9cheresse<\/a>\u201d, <em>Reuters<\/em>le 15 mai 2019).&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/gByMrCKkZco?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vers une crise mondiale des prix alimentaires ? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En d'autres termes, il existe un risque \u00e9lev\u00e9 que l'intensification des tensions sur les march\u00e9s des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et des denr\u00e9es alimentaires d\u00e9finisse la situation \u00e9conomique du second semestre de 2019. Dans le m\u00eame temps, les compagnies d'assurance et de r\u00e9assurance vont devoir faire face aux co\u00fbts des gigantesques \u00e9pisodes de destruction des infrastructures et de l'agriculture dans le Midwest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il pourrait s'agir d'un nouveau type de crise agricole, financi\u00e8re, alimentaire et sociale hybride. \u00c0 l'heure de la mondialisation, cette crise s'\u00e9tendra ... \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle mondiale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Errata 5 juin 2019 : Nous avons chang\u00e9 une phrase dans l'introduction o\u00f9 une erreur grammaticale a conduit \u00e0 une confusion entre le nombre r\u00e9el de porcs tu\u00e9s en Chine et le nombre potentiel qui serait tu\u00e9 dans le pire des cas. Nous utilisons maintenant le nombre r\u00e9el de porcs tu\u00e9s jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent en Chine. <\/em><br><em>Nous avons clarifi\u00e9 et d\u00e9taill\u00e9 la source du pire sc\u00e9nario dans le paragraphe correspondant du corps du texte, corrig\u00e9 le nombre de porcs domestiques en Chine et ajout\u00e9 des estimations de HSBC.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En mai 2019, pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois en trois mois, le centre des \u00c9tats-Unis est martel\u00e9 par des inondations record. Ces inondations touchent l'Oklahoma, l'Arkansas, le Missouri, l'Illinois, le Nebraska et l'Iowa (Susannah Cullinane, Hollie Silvermane, Sheena Jones, \"Central US reels from week of deadly weather\", CNN, 26 mai 2019). \u00c0 Van Buren, en Arkansas, le niveau de la rivi\u00e8re Arkansas a atteint [...] <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/06\/03\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Les inondations du Midwest, la guerre commerciale et la pand\u00e9mie de grippe porcine : La super temp\u00eate agricole et alimentaire est l\u00e0 ! \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":23099,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,1335,1722,2860,2558],"tags":[1789,2560],"class_list":["post-23052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-energy-security","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-featured","category-climate-and-resources-crisis","tag-featured","tag-open-access","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Midwest Floods, the Trade War and the Swine Flu Pandemic: The Agricultural and Food Super Storm is Here! &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/06\/03\/inondations-midwest-guerre-commerciale-pandemie-grippe-porcine-grande-tempete-agricole-alimentaire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Midwest Floods, the Trade War and the Swine Flu Pandemic: The Agricultural and Food Super Storm is Here! &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In May 2019, for the second time in three months, Central U.S. is hammered by record-breaking floods. Those floods are impacting Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Nebraska and Iowa (Susannah Cullinane, Hollie Silvermane, Sheena Jones, \u201cCentral US reels from week of deadly weather\u201d, CNN, May 26, 2019). In Van Buren, Arkansas, the Arkansas River level reached &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0The Midwest Floods, the Trade War and the Swine Flu Pandemic: The Agricultural and Food Super Storm is Here!\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/06\/03\/inondations-midwest-guerre-commerciale-pandemie-grippe-porcine-grande-tempete-agricole-alimentaire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-06-03T09:58:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-09-03T16:31:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Evolution_of_a_Tornado-1568.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/03\\\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/03\\\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b840ac3537c3f891b6e61a6e559775fe\"},\"headline\":\"The Midwest Floods, the Trade War and the Swine Flu Pandemic: The Agricultural and Food Super Storm is Here!\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-06-03T09:58:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-03T16:31:42+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/03\\\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1792,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/03\\\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/Evolution_of_a_Tornado-1568.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"Open Access\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Americas\",\"Energy Security\",\"Environmental Geostrategy\",\"Featured\",\"Resources crisis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/03\\\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/03\\\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/03\\\/the-midwest-floods-the-trade-war-and-the-swine-flu-pandemic-the-agricultural-and-food-super-storm-is-here\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Midwest Floods, the Trade War and the Swine Flu Pandemic: The Agricultural and Food Super Storm is Here! 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Those floods are impacting Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Nebraska and Iowa (Susannah Cullinane, Hollie Silvermane, Sheena Jones, \u201cCentral US reels from week of deadly weather\u201d, CNN, May 26, 2019). 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