{"id":23463,"date":"2019-07-15T16:43:40","date_gmt":"2019-07-15T14:43:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=23463"},"modified":"2021-10-07T19:52:34","modified_gmt":"2021-10-07T17:52:34","slug":"made-in-china-2025-difficulte-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/07\/15\/made-in-china-2025-in-trouble-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"\"Made in China 2025\" dans Trouble ? - Signal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le 14 juillet 2019, de nouvelles statistiques chinoises ont r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que la croissance en Chine \u00e9tait en baisse. Les m\u00e9dias ont fait sensation en rapportant cette nouvelle. Par exemple, <em>New York Times<\/em> intitul\u00e9 \"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"La croissance \u00e9conomique de la Chine atteint son niveau le plus bas depuis 27 ans en raison de la guerre commerciale (s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/07\/14\/business\/china-economy-growth-gdp-trade-war.html\" target=\"_blank\">La croissance \u00e9conomique de la Chine atteint son niveau le plus bas depuis 27 ans, alors que la guerre commerciale bat son plein<\/a>\u201d (Keith Bradsher). En attendant, que se passe-t-il dans le domaine des nouvelles technologies ? D'autres indicateurs sont-ils disponibles ? En effet, la fameuse guerre commerciale est aussi et m\u00eame avant tout une guerre technologique, avec des cons\u00e9quences importantes en termes de g\u00e9opolitique. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un responsable am\u00e9ricain a enfin soulign\u00e9 cette r\u00e9alit\u00e9, apr\u00e8s le G20 de juin 2019, dans le cadre de l'ouverture d'un nouveau cycle de n\u00e9gociations commerciales entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Chine : <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\"L'enjeu ... est la domination des industries de haute technologie du futur, de l'intelligence artificielle \u00e0 l'a\u00e9rospatiale\"  <\/p><cite>David Lawder, Chris Prentice,\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Chine relancent les n\u00e9gociations sans grand changement depuis l&#039;\u00e9chec de l&#039;accord (ouvre un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/uk.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-trade-china\/u-s-china-to-relaunch-talks-with-little-changed-since-deal-fell-apart-idUKKCN1U40EQ\" target=\"_blank\">Les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Chine vont relancer les discussions, mais l'accord a peu chang\u00e9 depuis son \u00e9chec<\/a>\u201d, <em>Reuters<\/em>le 9 juillet 2019 <\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/11\/10\/rtas-contribution-amrae-50-atout-risk-manager\/\">Contribution de RTAS au num\u00e9ro historique des 50 ans d\u2019Atout Risk Manager de l'AMRAE<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">L'expertise de RTAS mise en avant sur la cha\u00eene de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision italienne LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Au-del\u00e0 de la g\u00e9opolitique : Comprendre les pressions critiques qui remod\u00e8lent notre monde.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">VIGILANCE - Y\u00e9men et Arabie Saoudite<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La production de robots industriels est un indicateur - parmi d'autres - de la situation de la politique \"Made in China 2025\".  Plus largement, elle nous renseigne sur la capacit\u00e9 de la Chine \u00e0 devenir \"le premier acteur sur la sc\u00e8ne mondiale de l'IA d'ici 2030\" (China State Council,&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.gov.cn\/zhengce\/content\/2017-07\/20\/content_5211996.htm\">Plan de d\u00e9veloppement de l'intelligence artificielle de nouvelle g\u00e9n\u00e9ration<\/a><\/em>Le 20 juillet 2017 ;&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.usito.org\/news\/state-council-releases-ai-development-plan\" target=\"_blank\">Nouvelles de l'USITO<\/a>Paul Mozur, \"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/07\/20\/business\/china-artificial-intelligence.html\" target=\"_blank\">P\u00e9kin veut que l'IA soit fabriqu\u00e9e en Chine d'ici 2030<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em>New York Times<\/em>20 juillet 2017).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous avons suivi la production chinoise de robots industriels au cours des derniers mois. Dans le r\u00e9cent lot de donn\u00e9es statistiques publi\u00e9 par le Bureau national des statistiques de Chine, nous avons pu trouver la production pour mai 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En utilisant des s\u00e9ries commen\u00e7ant en janvier 2017, on peut voir des difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 partir de septembre 2018, comme indiqu\u00e9 pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/05\/13\/capteurs-et-actionneurs-4-ai-avanc%c3%a9s-robots-g%c3%a9opolitique\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u2605 Intelligence artificielle, la longue marche vers les robots avanc\u00e9s et la g\u00e9opolitique<\/a> - <em>Les articles de Nota commen\u00e7ant par un \u2605 sont des articles de qualit\u00e9.  L'introduction reste n\u00e9anmoins en acc\u00e8s libre).<\/em> La production semble s'am\u00e9liorer en 2019. Elle est meilleure qu'en 2017, mais reste l\u00e9g\u00e8rement inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle de 2018, comme le montre le graphique ci-dessous. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\">Adh\u00e9rez et devenez membre<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1568\" height=\"803\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-Industrial-robots-650-1568x803.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23466\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-Industrial-robots-650-1568x803.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-Industrial-robots-650-300x154.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-Industrial-robots-650-768x393.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-Industrial-robots-650-1320x676.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-Industrial-robots-650-250x128.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-Industrial-robots-650-1038x531.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-Industrial-robots-650.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1568px) 100vw, 1568px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Toutefois, si l'on consid\u00e8re les taux de croissance, la situation semble bien pire. La Chine passe d'une augmentation ph\u00e9nom\u00e9nale de la production de robots en 2017, \u00e0 un fort ralentissement, \u00e0 des taux n\u00e9gatifs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1568\" height=\"732\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-industrial-robots-growth-rate-1568x732.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23469\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-industrial-robots-growth-rate-1568x732.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-industrial-robots-growth-rate-300x140.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-industrial-robots-growth-rate-768x358.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-industrial-robots-growth-rate-1320x616.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-industrial-robots-growth-rate-250x117.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-industrial-robots-growth-rate-1038x484.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/China-Production-of-industrial-robots-growth-rate.jpg 2044w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1568px) 100vw, 1568px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elle pourrait avoir, d'un point de vue chinois, des \u00e9l\u00e9ments de choc (voir <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/09\/21\/multiplication-crises-strat%c3%a9giques-surprises-ou-strat%c3%a9giques-chocs\/\">Multiplication des crises : Surprises strat\u00e9giques ou chocs strat\u00e9giques ?<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pourtant, et comme le montre notre premier graphique, ce que nous voyons en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 est plus une l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse de la production et une stagnation qu'une r\u00e9cession catastrophique. La conclusion pourrait \u00eatre que le leadership d'ici 2030 dans le domaine de l'IA, qui inclut la robotique (voir <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/11\/27\/intelligence-artificielle-volont%c3%a9-pouvoir-g%c3%a9opolitique-pr%c3%a9sentation-ai-ouvert-acc%c3%a8s\/\">L'intelligence artificielle au service de la g\u00e9opolitique - Pr\u00e9sentation de l'IA<\/a>), il faudrait tr\u00e8s probablement les partager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e9anmoins, les dommages perceptuels de l'accent actuel sur la croissance infinie sont probablement \u00e0 l'\u0153uvre. En outre, cela pourrait \u00e9galement contribuer \u00e0 signaler la fin du statut de la Chine en tant que nation \u00e9mergente. La Chine pourrait simplement entrer dans une p\u00e9riode caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e par des conditions plus classiques. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce n'est certainement pas mauvais en soi. Cependant, cela peut \u00e9galement impliquer des difficult\u00e9s et des ajustements en termes de perceptions, d'attentes et de politiques. Par cons\u00e9quent, des impacts n\u00e9gatifs au niveau national pourraient \u00e9galement appara\u00eetre. Au pire, nous pourrions \u00eatre confront\u00e9s au d\u00e9but d'une dangereuse spirale d'escalade. Dans ce cas, les attentes int\u00e9rieures et \u00e9trang\u00e8res non satisfaites s'alimenteraient mutuellement, ce qui aggraverait la situation \u00e9conomique. Cela favoriserait des r\u00e9ponses tendues, qui ne seraient pas stabilisantes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La baisse de la croissance d'une part, la stagnation de la production de robots industriels d'autre part, ne sont que deux indications parmi d'autres. Pourtant, elles indiquent clairement que nous devons surveiller la situation en Chine tant sur le plan int\u00e9rieur qu'en termes de relations internationales et de g\u00e9opolitique.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le 14 juillet 2019, de nouvelles statistiques chinoises ont r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que la croissance en Chine \u00e9tait en baisse. Les m\u00e9dias ont rapport\u00e9 cette nouvelle de mani\u00e8re sensationnelle. Par exemple, le New York Times a titr\u00e9 \"La croissance \u00e9conomique de la Chine atteint son niveau le plus bas depuis 27 ans alors que la guerre commerciale fait rage\" (Keith Bradsher). Entre-temps, que se passe-t-il dans le domaine des nouvelles technologies ? D'autres indicateurs sont-ils disponibles ? En effet, le c\u00e9l\u00e8bre ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/07\/15\/made-in-china-2025-in-trouble-signal\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Le \"Made in China 2025\" en difficult\u00e9 ? - Signal \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2568,2497,2544,1078],"tags":[2177,61,1789,2560,1546,2549,2562],"class_list":["post-23463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence","category-china","category-horizon-scanning-board","category-new-paradigm","tag-ai","tag-china","tag-featured","tag-open-access","tag-robot","tag-signal","tag-signalfeatured","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Made in China 2025&quot; in Trouble? 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. 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