{"id":25522,"date":"2020-02-05T17:09:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-05T16:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=25522"},"modified":"2021-10-04T17:22:40","modified_gmt":"2021-10-04T15:22:40","slug":"le-nouveau-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystere-verification-des-faits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/","title":{"rendered":"Le myst\u00e8re du nouveau coronavirus COVID-19 - V\u00e9rification des faits"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new Coronavirus 2019-nCoV epidemic outbreak is a mystery. Indeed, since it became a concern in China at the end of December 2019 and in the early days of January 2020 (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"WHO timeline (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/situation-reports\/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4\" target=\"_blank\">WHO timeline<\/a>), the various actors and authorities involved have been sending contradictory signals regarding the outbreak. This is perplexing, and all the more so considering the potential severity of the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is truly happening? Strategic foresight and risk analysis, i.e. analysis made specifically to anticipate and evaluate future dangers and threats and their impacts, is more than ever necessary. Strategic foresight and risk analysis will help us considering all factors involved while being as objective and impartial as possible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this first article, we shall first detail further the mystery and perplexing ways the outbreak appears to trigger. Then, we shall check a couple of the &#8220;truths&#8221; spread to have a baseline assessment of what is happening, using scientific and reliable official data. <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">RTAS Expertise Highlighted on Italian Television Channel LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">The Strange Mystery of Bolivia&#8217;s Lithium Reserves<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">WATCH OUT &#8211; The Iran War, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL &#8211; The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the next articles we shall offer an explanation regarding the reasons for the cacophony we hear. Finally, we shall highlight major uncertainties that need to be considered to assess the impacts of the new Coronavirus epidemic outbreak as a global threat, i.e. using all available knowledge to look at multiple impacts across domains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The COVID-19 (ex 2019-nCoV) Mystery or how to confuse people with contradictory signals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-circle-mask\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/covid-19-4855709_1920-1412x941.jpg\" alt=\"COVID-19, epidemics, scenario, risk analysis, strategic foresight, warning, threat anticipation\" class=\"wp-image-25728\" width=\"259\" height=\"146\"\/><figcaption><strong>Factor in Coronavirus risks to your activity<\/strong> : <strong>commissioned reports<\/strong><br>The <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/news\/public-statement\/statement-audit-quality-china-2020-02-19\" target=\"_blank\">US SEC urged<\/a> listed firms to factor coronavirus risks in their financial disclosures (19 Feb 20). The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.frc.org.uk\/news\/february-2020-(1)\/frc-advice-to-companies-and-auditors-on-coronaviru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"UK FRC (opens in a new tab)\">UK FRC<\/a> stressed (18 Feb): <em>\u201cCompanies will need to monitor developments and ensure they are providing up-to-date and meaningful disclosures to their shareholders when preparing their year-end reports.\u201d<\/em> All companies should consider the future likely impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on their activity. <br><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/about-2\/contact\/\" target=\"_blank\">Contact us<\/a> for commissioned reports helping you to plan ahead and fulfil your obligations. Also contact <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/dlavoix\/\">Dr Helene Lavoix<\/a> directly.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the one hand, we receive signals according to which the outbreak is very serious and a global public emergency. For example, on 30&nbsp;January 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"declared (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/detail\/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)\" target=\"_blank\">declared<\/a> we faced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). China and notably the epicentre of the epidemic, the city of Wuhan in the province of Hubei, is close to a complete lock down and quarantine. Many countries repatriate their citizens from China and put them under quarantine. International companies operating in China close down their offices and airlines stop their flights with China. The list of these decisions lengthens by the day (<em>Reuters<\/em>, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/uk.reuters.com\/article\/us-china-health-business-impact-factbox\/companies-feel-impact-of-coronavirus-outbreak-in-china-idUSKBN1ZZ0B1?il=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Companies feel impact of coronavirus outbreak in China (opens in a new tab)\">Companies feel impact of coronavirus outbreak in China<\/a>&#8220;, 5 Feb 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the other hand, even though it declared a PHEIC on 30 January, the WHO &#8220;does not recommend any travel or trade restriction based on the current information available.&#8221;&nbsp;Some media, relaying experts&#8217; analysis underline the need not to panic, and that, despite uncertainty, the new coronavirus  is &#8220;not more dangerous than a seasonal flu epidemic&#8221; (e.g. Dan Vergano, &#8220;Don\u2019t Worry About The Coronavirus. Worry About The Flu.&#8217; Buzzfeeds, 28 January 2020; Maciej F. Boni, Associate Professor of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Is the coronavirus outbreak as bad as SARS? (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/is-coronavirus-outbreak-as-bad-as-sars.html\" target=\"_blank\">Is the coronavirus outbreak as bad as SARS?<\/a>&#8221; <em>LiveScience<\/em>, 30 January 2020). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-circle-mask\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/online-course-geopolitical-risk-and-crisis-anticipation-scenario-building\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background.jpeg\" alt=\"scenario building, scenario, strategic foresight, online course, risk management, future \" class=\"wp-image-23432\" width=\"259\" height=\"146\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background.jpeg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-500x281.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-16x9.jpeg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-1320x743.jpeg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-250x141.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-1038x584.jpeg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-300x169.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 259px) 100vw, 259px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Check our <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"new online course on scenario-building (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/online-course-geopolitical-risk-and-crisis-anticipation-scenario-building\/\" target=\"_blank\">new online course on scenario-building<\/a> for Geopolitical Risks and Crisis Anticipation<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Officials and elected political authorities, such as U.S. President Trump, outside China also stress their control over the virus and that the risk to their country is minimal (e.g. Michael Wayland, &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Trump says coronavirus outbreak is \u2018all under control\u2019 and a \u2018very small problem\u2019 in US (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/01\/30\/trump-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-all-under-control-and-is-a-very-small-problem-in-us.html\" target=\"_blank\">Trump says coronavirus outbreak is \u2018all under control\u2019 and a \u2018very small problem\u2019 in US<\/a>&#8220;, CNBC, 30 January 2020). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This 4 February piece of video by the BBC is a perfect case in point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dRggIb5Je_w?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The beginning of the video is ambivalent. It tries to reassure and put the outbreak into perspective, meanwhile it also tends to minimize the epidemic. Furthermore it is done with a measure of irony and sarcasm, that could aim at ridiculing thus silencing any other analysis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then, one switches angle. Now, on the contrary, the video focuses on this Chinese Doctor who did identify a serious epidemic outbreak&#8230; but was silenced. Ironically, what is reproached to the Chinese authorities &#8211; we shall learn only at the end that it was actually the provincial police, and not the central authorities who were guilty of misjudgement &#8211; is to have silenced someone&#8230; which is exactly what the first part of the video does. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nonetheless, at the end of the video, the overall message one get is that yes, it is serious but only in China. And that, anyway, all this is more or less related to the type of Chinese regime. Thus we may assume that one is expected to believe that outside China, such outbreak would never develop. We are not very far from seeing something akin to scapegoating China. This is is likely counter-productive, and also a well-known cognitive bias that mars analysis and understanding (&#8220;Bias Favoring Perception of Centralized Direction&#8221;, Heuer, <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/library\/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence\/csi-publications\/books-and-monographs\/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis\/PsychofIntelNew.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Psychology of Intelligence Analysis<\/a><\/em>, pp. 131-132; Module on biases in our <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"online course Geopolitical Risks and Crisis Anticipation: Analytical Model (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/course-global-risk-analysis-analytical-model\/\" target=\"_blank\">online course Geopolitical Risks and Crisis Anticipation: Analytical Model<\/a>). Meanwhile, the final message is that wherever, in China or elsewhere everything is for the best as the courageous Chinese Doctor turned whistleblower is about to be cured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unfortunately Dr Li Wenliang died on 7 February 2020. This sadly highlights even more the absurdity and danger of trying to deliver upbeat messages when facing a deadly epidemic outbreak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Faced with such varied and often contradictory signals across platforms and actors, what should we believe? Is the situation dangerous and should we adapt our behaviour accordingly? Or could such a change of behaviour be ridiculous, even counter-productive? Is the new coronavirus outbreak just, in fact, business as usual? How can we be best prepared for the future if the possible futures look so uncertain? Are these conflicting signals sent creating, in themselves, anxiety? Do they favour polarisation as everyone tries to handle anxiety as s\/he can? Why, finally, are such contradictory signals sent?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">It is all about survival &#8230; within the &#8220;fog of epidemic&#8221; <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fundamentally the new Coronavirus epidemic outbreak, as any outbreak, is about only one thing: survival. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is about survival for individuals. How likely am I to catch the disease? How likely are my loved ones to catch the disease? And most importantly, how likely are we to die if we catch it? Meanwhile, what to do to prevent being infected and then dying?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And it is about collective survival. How many and where can catch the disease? How many and where are likely to die? What can be done about infection and death, and by whom? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The collective questions and answers are actually more complex, as we shall see in the next article. But let us come back, for now, to the fundamental survival question. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We shall use data and measures given by official and recognised bodies and stemming from scientist work (see <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Resources to monitor the new Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Epidemic Outbreak (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/01\/29\/resources-to-monitor-the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-epidemic-outbreak\/\" target=\"_blank\">Resources to monitor the new Coronavirus COVID 19 (ex 2019-nCoV) Epidemic Outbreak<\/a> and bibliography below). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Evolving and uncertain answers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first and crucial element to highlight is that whatever the efforts of scientists and authorities involved, knowledge and measures about the epidemics are bound to change and evolve. Especially for new viruses, such as the COVID-19, when the first infections take place, our knowledge is close to nought. We do not even know if we are about to face an epidemic outbreak or not. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/mOV1aBVYKGA?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><figcaption>WHO &#8211; Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) &#8211; 31 Jan 2020<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, answers we get are uncertain. It is only when an epidemic is over that one can hope obtaining a completely clear understanding of it. And even once it is over, new discoveries and understanding can take place days, months, decades even centuries after it is over. For instance, there are still debates and new findings regarding the way the Black Death, the plague epidemic that devastated Europe in the 14th century and subsequent epidemics of plague until the 19th century, spread (e.g. Katharine R. Deanet al. &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/115\/6\/1304.long\" target=\"_blank\">Human ectoparasites and spread of plague in Europe<\/a>&#8221; <em>PNAS<\/em>,&nbsp;Feb 2018; Kristi Rosa, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.contagionlive.com\/news\/black-death-may-have-spread-via-human-fleas-and-lice-not-rats\">Black Death May Have Spread Via Human Fleas &amp; Lice, Not Rats<\/a>&#8220;, <em>Contagionlive<\/em>, 19 January 2018; ).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When one is in the midst of an epidemic, it is as with war. We have to accept something akin to the fog of war, i.e. fundamental uncertainty (Colonel Lonsdale Hale, <em>The Fog of War<\/em>, 1896). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, if we look at an epidemic as an ideal-type we can also see it as a war of a sort. On the one hand, we have the virus or the pathogen that races to infect as many hosts as possible to replicate itself. On the other, we have human beings who try to defend themselves and defeat the aggressor. Human beings develop understanding of what is happening through scientific actors, try to keep death at bay through medical actors, while all other actors try to do what is best according to the understanding provided by science. And this is done within the framework of a race, because scale and capability matters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Considering this uncertainty, how can we answer our fundamental questions on survival?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How fatal is the new Coronavirus?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First estimative case-fatality rates for the COVID-19 (ex 2019-nCoV)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We can get an estimative answer to this question by looking at what is called the <strong>case-fatality rate<\/strong>. The case-fatality rate is a statistical measure that is calculated by taking the number of death and dividing it by the number of confirmed cases for a specific disease (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/science\/case-fatality-rate\">Encyclopaedia Britannica<\/a>). In other words, the case-fatality rate tells us how many people who are infected die. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unfortunately, as long as the outbreak lasts, our knowledge of the fatality rate is uncertain. This is why the fatality rate must be constantly monitored to adapt actions in case of evolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 2 February 2020 18:10 (CET), for the 2019-nCoV, the global case-fatality rate is 362\/17489 = 2,069% (data <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"John Hopkins' time series (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/opsdashboard\/index.html#\/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6\" target=\"_blank\">John Hopkins&#8217; time series<\/a>). On 3 February, it is 427\/20701 = 2,1236% and on 4 February 494\/24597= 2,01%(ibid.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 13 February 2020, the case-fatality rate is 1370\/60360=2,2697%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, if we look at the sole Hubei province in China, where the outbreak originated and is so far most serious, we have as fatality rate for 2, 3 and 4 February 2020 350\/11177 = 3,1314%, 414\/13522 = 3,0617%, 479\/16678=2,8720% (data ibid). These are the lowest rates for the province since fatalities have been recorded and tested for the new coronavirus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 13 February 2020, for the Hubei province, the case-fatality rate is 1310\/48206=2,7175%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">18 February 2020 Chinese CDC center Study: overall case fatality rate of 2.3%, with wide differences according to age (the oldest, the more at risk), health (comorbid conditions) and exposure (health workers) (The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team, &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/weekly.chinacdc.cn\/en\/article\/id\/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51\" target=\"_blank\">The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)<\/a>&#8220;, &#8230;).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comparing case-fatality rates<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If we compare with other diseases and outbreaks, to have an idea of the severity in terms of fatality, we have the following table:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"\"><tbody><tr><td>\nDisease\n<\/td><td>\nIf left untreated\n<\/td><td>\nWith treatment\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)&nbsp;2012-ongoing <\/td><td> 34,4%<br> <\/td><td> No known treatment<br> <\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov) 2002-2003 <\/td><td>9,6% (WHO)<br> <\/td><td>\n<br>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nPlague\n<\/td><td>\n50-60% (WHO)\n<\/td><td>\nAfrica 9.2%\nAmericas 6.2%\nWorld average (last 45 years) 11.8%\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Yellow fever <\/td><td>\n15%\n<\/td><td>\nonly supportive care &#8211; no treatment\nVaccination available\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>2019-nCoV<\/strong><\/td><td>1\/ <strong>between 2,01% and 2,8720% &#8211; 3,0617%<\/strong><br>2\/ <strong>between 2,2697% and 2,7175%<\/strong><br><\/td><td>1\/ estimates from global and Hubei, 2 to 4 February 2020<br>2\/ estimates from global and Hubei, 13 February 2020<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>seasonal influenza epidemics<\/td><td>0.03% to 1,75%<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/seasonal-influenza\/facts\/factsheet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"ECDC Factsheet about seasonal influenza (opens in a new tab)\">ECDC Factsheet about seasonal influenza<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nMalaria (falciparum)\n<\/td><td>\n0.3% (Other regions) &#8211; 0.45% (Africa)\n<\/td><td>\n<br>\n<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We clearly see that the epidemic is so far more dangerous than the seasonal influenza epidemics, even though it is indeed less lethal than other coronavirus such as the SARS or other diseases such as the Yellow Fever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">On the danger of not taking the outbreak seriously when infection takes place as symptoms are mild and cases asymptomatic<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Find an update on asymptomatic cases in our next article: <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/12\/coronavirus-covid-19-epidemic-outbreak-not-only-about-new-virus\/\">The Coronavirus COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak is Not Only about a New Virus<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, &#8220;more fragile&#8221; people are more at risks but that is not an argument is it? Furthermore, the lump case-fatality rate calculated for the seasonal influenza epidemics also includes &#8220;more fragile&#8221; people. As a result, arguments trying to dismiss risks by comparison with the seasonal influenza epidemics are wrong. They could even be dangerous if they led people not to take the outbreak seriously. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, one of the potentially dangerous characteristics of the new Coronavirus 2019-nCoV, if we consider the early German cases, is that infected individuals are contagious while they are both asymptomatic and symptomatic, and that symptoms indicating infection can be very mild. In the video below pulmonologist Dr. Seheult, using Rothe et al. 2020 &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc2001468\" target=\"_blank\">Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany<\/a>&#8220;, <em>NEJM<\/em>, explains very clearly the situation as understood on 30 January 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nW3xqcGidpQ?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;start=564&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><figcaption>For the German cases, starts at 5:42, but the first part is also very interesting.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 5 February 2019, the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Chinese online professional community of physicians, medical institutions etc (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/ncov.dxy.cn\/ncovh5\/view\/pneumonia\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese online professional community of physicians, medical institutions etc<\/a>. confirmed that &#8220;Asymptomatic infection can also be a source of infection&#8221;. However, asymptomatic cases would be less infectious than symptomatic ones (ibid).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, minimising or even mocking the outbreak, encouraging people not to get tested, not to seek medical advice and not to adopt basic hygiene gestures then could favour the spread of the infection. In turn, this directly heightens the number of death. In the meantime, it increases the burden on medical facilities, which can both favour infection and also, potentially, indirectly increase the case-fatality rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This leads us to wonder about contagion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How contagious is the virus and how many people could be infected?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In epidemiology, a couple of measures are used to evaluate the propensity to propagation of a virus and the ease or difficulty to control an epidemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Estimated basic reproduction number for 2019-nCoV<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">R0 (R-nought) or <strong>basic reproduction number<\/strong> of an infectious disease is a measure that represents &#8220;the expected number of secondary cases produced by a typical infected individual early in an epidemic&#8221; (O Diekmann; J.A.P. Heesterbeek and J.A.J. Metz (1990).&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/BF00178324\">&#8220;On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0&nbsp;in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations&#8221;<\/a>, <em>Journal of Mathematical Biology<\/em>&nbsp;28: 356\u2013382). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The larger the value of&nbsp;<em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>, the harder it is to control the epidemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 29 January 2020, Qun Li et al. estimated that <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>=2.2 (&#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus\u2013Infected Pneumonia (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa2001316\" target=\"_blank\">Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus\u2013Infected Pneumonia<\/a>&#8220;, <em>New England Journal of Medicine<\/em>). This means that one infected individual is expected to contaminate 2.2 other individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Joseph T. Wu et al. in their study published on 31 January 2020 use a <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>=2.68 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9\/fulltext\">Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study<\/a>, <em>The Lancet<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> found in the literature are: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Read et al. <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>= 3,8 (3,6 to 4) &#8211; 23 Jan 2020<\/li><li>Abbott et al. <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>= 2 to 2,7 &#8211; 3 Feb 2020<\/li><li>Kucharski et al. <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>= 1,6 to 2,9 &#8211; quoted by Danon et al. 12 Feb 2020<\/li><li>Liu et al. <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>= 2,9 (2,3 to 3,7) &#8211; 25 January 2020<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The efforts and the actions of the actors aim to reduce the <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> so that it falls below 1, which means the virus stops propagate (Qun Li et al., Ibid.). Once this objective is reached, then the epidemic is contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comparing basic reproduction numbers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If we compare the new Coronavirus with other contagious diseases, we have the following table:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"\"><tbody><tr><td>\n<strong>Disease<\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<strong>Ro<\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<strong>Transmission<\/strong>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nDiphtheria&nbsp;\n<\/td><td>\n6-7\n<\/td><td>\nSaliva\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nMeasles&nbsp;\n<\/td><td>\n12-18\n<\/td><td>\nAirborne\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nMumps&nbsp;\n<\/td><td>\n4-7\n<\/td><td>\nAirborne droplet\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nPolio&nbsp;\n<\/td><td>\n5-7\n<\/td><td>\nFecal-oral route\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nRubella&nbsp;\n<\/td><td>\n6-7\n<\/td><td>\nAirborne droplet\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nSmallpox&nbsp;\n<\/td><td>\n5-7\n<\/td><td>\nAirborne droplet\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nCholera&nbsp;\n<\/td><td>\n1.1 to 2.7 (Bangladesh &amp; Zimbabwe outbreak)\n<\/td><td> Direct: person-to-person Indirect contact: water <\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>2019-nCov<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2.2 (Qun Li et al.)<br>2.68 (Wu et al.)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>(estimates end January 2020)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SARS epidemic 2002-2003 <\/td><td> 2-4 (WHO 11\/2003) <\/td><td>\nRespiratory droplets\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Influenza H1N1 (1918) <\/td><td>\n2-4\n<\/td><td>Direct: airborne Indirect: touching infected surface and bringing hand to mouth or nose <\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EVD 2016<\/td><td>2.18 median (1.24-3.55) <\/td><td>Direct: bodily fluids Indirect: contaminated material <\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\nPlague (pneumonic &#8211; bacteria)\n<\/td><td>\n1.3\n<\/td><td>\nAirborne infectious droplets\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MERS<\/td><td> 0.7<\/td><td> ECDC (31 January 2020)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Incubation and transmission of the 2019-nCoV <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, we know that  &#8220;the mean incubation period is estimated to be 5.2 days (95% CI, 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days, which supports using 14 days as an operational definition for contact tracing and monitoring&#8221; (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"ECDC update (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/novel-coronavirus-risk-assessment-china-31-january-2020_0.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">ECDC update<\/a>, 31 January 2020). The <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Chinese Medical Association highlights (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/ncov.dxy.cn\/ncovh5\/view\/pneumonia\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese Medical Association highlights<\/a> on 5 February 2020 that the &#8220;Incubation period is generally 3 to 7 days, up to 14 days, during which infectious period may exist&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, later studies (9 February 2020)  suggests that &#8220;the median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days)&#8221; (Zhong et al., <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.02.06.20020974v1\" target=\"_blank\">Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China<\/a>, <strong>doi:<\/strong>&nbsp;https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.02.06.20020974).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The possibility of contagion as the individual is asymptomatic, as seen, also favours contamination (see update in <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/12\/coronavirus-covid-19-epidemic-outbreak-not-only-about-new-virus\/\">The Coronavirus COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak is Not Only about a New Virus<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New possible ways to become infected are also identified, tested, then confirmed or not, daily, and thus should be monitored. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As of 4 February 2020, the virus &#8220;can be transmitted through respiratory droplets or through contact. There is a possibility of fecal-oral transmission (see notably&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ncov.dxy.cn\/ncovh5\/view\/pneumonia\">Coronavirus dedicated website<\/a>). Meanwhile, the possibility of transmission through surfaces must also be taken into account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Specific measures of hygiene as recommended by most  countries&#8217; official websites should thus be observed, as <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"here (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/about\/what-you-should-do.html\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, for example by the U.S. CDC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All these are however only partial and potentially temporary answers to the question. The virus is not yet understood enough to give a simple answer to a simple question. Furthermore, it does not seem that there is such a thing as a simple answer in epidemiology. Indeed, results depend upon various actors&#8217; behaviours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First modelling of the epidemic outbreak<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regarding the potential number of cases, Joseph T Wu et al. (Ibid.) published estimates from a first modelling study focusing on China on 31 January 2020. Their results, reproduced below, are expressed for major cities in China in daily incidence rates, i.e. the&nbsp;probability&nbsp;of occurrence of seeing a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV&nbsp;in a population &#8211; here per 1000 people &#8211; in one day. Various hypotheses are made to consider diverse measures of control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-1139x941.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25544\" width=\"854\" height=\"706\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-1139x941.jpg 1139w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-300x248.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-768x635.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-1536x1269.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-2048x1693.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-1568x1296.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-1320x1091.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-250x207.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/lancet-wu-et-al.-31-january-gr4_lrg-1038x858.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 854px) 100vw, 854px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Joseph T Wu et al. Ibid. (opens in a new tab)\">Joseph T Wu et al. Ibid.<\/a> Figure 4 &#8211; Click to access image in the Lancet article<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To conclude, we shall quote Wu et al final assessment at length. It reads:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;Vaccine platforms should be accelerated for real-time deployment in the event of a second wave of infections. Above all, for health protection within China and internationally, especially those locations with the closest travel links with major Chinese ports, preparedness plans should be readied for deployment at short notice, including securing supply chains of pharmaceuticals, personal protective equipment, hospital supplies, and the necessary human resources to deal with the consequences of a global outbreak of this magnitude.&#8221;<\/p><cite>Joseph T Wu et al. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9\/fulltext\">Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study<\/a>, <em>The Lancet<\/em>, 31 January 2020.<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We thus now have a better and more honest answer to our fundamental survival questions. Yes, the new Coronavirus outbreak is serious and should not be underestimated. All actors, including individuals should behave accordingly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This explains, for example, the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications-data\/risk-assessment-outbreak-acute-respiratory-syndrome-associated-novel-1\" target=\"_blank\">European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control 31 January threat assessment<\/a> cautiousness and conditional evaluation. The ECDC highlights low risks for the EU if detection and &#8220;appropriate infection prevention and control (IPC) practices&#8221; are implemented. Meanwhile, it warns that should the EU\/EEA fail in its detection and IPC practices, then the risk of secondary transmission is high. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, one possible factor creating the mystery of the contradictory signals is uncertainty. This uncertainty is in-built into the emergence of a new virus. However, it is also, most probably, the inability of our societies to handle peacefully this very uncertainty that favours these contradictory messages. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-dark-gray-color wp-block-paragraph\">Another major factor triggering those confusing signals, as we started outlining, is that individual and collective survival are not exactly similar. This is what we shall see next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">References and bibliography<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abbott S, Hellewell J, Munday J, Funk S, Funk S. The transmissibility of novel Coronavirus in the early stages of the 2019-20 outbreak in Wuhan: Exploring initial point source exposure sizes and durations using scenario analysis. Wellcome Open Res, 2020 Feb 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Danon, Leon,&nbsp;Ellen&nbsp;Brooks-Pollock,&nbsp;Mick&nbsp;Bailey,&nbsp;Matt J&nbsp;Keeling, &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.02.12.20022566\" target=\"_blank\">A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing<\/a>&#8220;, medRxiv, 2020.02.12.20022566.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dean, Katharine R.,&nbsp;Fabienne&nbsp;Krauer,&nbsp;Lars&nbsp;Wall\u00f8e,&nbsp;Ole Christian&nbsp;Lingj\u00e6rde,&nbsp;Barbara&nbsp;Bramanti,&nbsp;Nils Chr.&nbsp;Stenseth,&nbsp;Boris V.&nbsp;Schmid, &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/115\/6\/1304.long\" target=\"_blank\">Human ectoparasites and spread of plague in Europe<\/a>&#8221; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,&nbsp;Feb 2018,&nbsp;115&nbsp;(6)&nbsp;1304-1309;&nbsp;DOI:&nbsp;10.1073\/pnas.1715640115.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Diekmann, O.; J.A.P. Heesterbeek and J.A.J. Metz,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/BF00178324\">&#8220;On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0&nbsp;in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations&#8221;<\/a>, <em>Journal of Mathematical Biology<\/em>&nbsp;28, 1990: 356\u2013382.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>DXY&nbsp;(<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dxy.cn\/\" target=\"_blank\">DXY.cn<\/a>)<\/em>:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ncov.dxy.cn\/ncovh5\/view\/pneumonia\">Coronavirus dedicated website<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications-data\/risk-assessment-outbreak-acute-respiratory-syndrome-associated-novel-1\" target=\"_blank\">European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control 31 January threat assessment<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/seasonal-influenza\/facts\/factsheet\" target=\"_blank\">ECDC Factsheet about seasonal influenza<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hale, Lonsdale, <em>The Fog of War<\/em>, 1896.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Heuer, &#8220;Bias Favoring Perception of Centralized Direction&#8221;, <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/library\/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence\/csi-publications\/books-and-monographs\/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis\/PsychofIntelNew.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Psychology of Intelligence Analysis<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">John Hopkins CSSE:&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/opsdashboard\/index.html#\/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6\" target=\"_blank\">Tracking the 2019-nCoV spread in real-time<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 map and graphs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Liu T, Hu J, Kang M, Lin L, Zhong H, Xiao J, et al. Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). bioRxiv. 2020 Jan 26;2020.01.25.919787. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lodish H, Berk A, Zipursky SL, et al. <em>Molecular Cell Biology<\/em>. 4th edition. New York: W. H. Freeman; 2000. <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Section 6.3, Viruses: Structure, Function, and Uses. (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/books\/NBK21523\/\" target=\"_blank\">Section 6.3, Viruses: Structure, Function, and Uses.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lofgren, E.T. and N.H. Fefferman. 2007. \u201cThe Untapped Potential of Virtual Game Worlds to Shed Light on Real World Epidemics\u201d. <em>The Lancet Infectious Diseases<\/em>. 7:625-629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nasir, Arshan et al. \u201c<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Viral evolution: Primordial cellular origins and late adaptation to parasitism (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC3575434\/\" target=\"_blank\">Viral evolution: Primordial cellular origins and late adaptation to parasitism<\/a>.\u201d&nbsp;<em>Mobile genetic elements<\/em>&nbsp;vol. 2,5 (2012): 247-252. doi:10.4161\/mge.22797.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Qun Li et al., &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa2001316\" target=\"_blank\">Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus\u2013Infected Pneumonia<\/a>&#8220;, <em>New England Journal of Medicine<\/em>, 29 January 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Read JM, Bridgen JR, Cummings DA, Ho A, Jewell CP. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. medRxiv, 2020; 2020.01.23.20018549. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rothe et al., &#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc2001468\" target=\"_blank\">Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany<\/a>&#8220;, <em>NEJM<\/em>, 30 January 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shen, S., Qu, X., Zhang, W.&nbsp;<em>et al.<\/em>&nbsp;&#8220;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Infection against infection: parasite antagonism against parasites, viruses and bacteria (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/idpjournal.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s40249-019-0560-6#citeas\" target=\"_blank\">Infection against infection: parasite antagonism against parasites, viruses and bacteria<\/a>&#8220;.&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/idpjournal.biomedcentral.com\/\">Infectious Diseases of Poverty<\/a><\/em>, volume&nbsp;8, Article&nbsp;number:&nbsp;49&nbsp;(2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/weekly.chinacdc.cn\/en\/article\/id\/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51\" target=\"_blank\">The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)<\/a> \u2014 China, 2020[J].&nbsp;<em>China CDC Weekly<\/em>&nbsp;2020. &#8211; 18 February 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WHO, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute\n respiratory syndrome (SARS) (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/csr\/sars\/en\/WHOconsensus.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute<br> respiratory syndrome (SARS)<\/a>, November 2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WHO, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Summary of probable SARS (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/csr\/sars\/country\/table2004_04_21\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\">Summary of probable SARS<\/a> cases with onset of illness from 1 November 2002 to 31 July 2003, 21 April 2004.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WHO, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"MERS update (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.emro.who.int\/fr\/pandemic-epidemic-diseases\/mers-cov\/mers-situation-update-december-2019.html\" target=\"_blank\">MERS update<\/a>, December 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wu, Joseph T et al. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9\/fulltext\">Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study<\/a>, <em>The Lancet<\/em>, 31 January 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zhong et al., <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.02.06.20020974v1\" target=\"_blank\">Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China<\/a>, <strong>doi:<\/strong>&nbsp;https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.02.06.20020974.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Featured image: Image by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/users\/geralt-9301\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=4807211\">Gerd Altmann<\/a>&nbsp;from&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=4807211\">Pixabay<\/a>&nbsp;[Public Domain]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La nouvelle \u00e9pid\u00e9mie de coronavirus 2019-nCoV est un myst\u00e8re. En effet, depuis qu'elle est devenue pr\u00e9occupante en Chine fin d\u00e9cembre 2019 et dans les premiers jours de janvier 2020 (chronologie OMS), les diff\u00e9rents acteurs et autorit\u00e9s concern\u00e9s envoient des signaux contradictoires concernant l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie. Cela laisse perplexe, et ce d'autant plus .... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Le nouveau myst\u00e8re du coronavirus COVID-19 - V\u00e9rification des faits \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25552,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2497,2905],"tags":[1789],"class_list":["post-25522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-covid19-analysis","tag-featured","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery - Fact-Checking &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/le-nouveau-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystere-verification-des-faits\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery - Fact-Checking &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The new Coronavirus 2019-nCoV epidemic outbreak is a mystery. Indeed, since it became a concern in China at the end of December 2019 and in the early days of January 2020 (WHO timeline), the various actors and authorities involved have been sending contradictory signals regarding the outbreak. This is perplexing, and all the more so &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery &#8211; Fact-Checking\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/le-nouveau-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystere-verification-des-faits\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-02-05T16:09:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-04T15:22:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"19 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery &#8211; Fact-Checking\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-02-05T16:09:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-04T15:22:40+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":3794,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\"],\"articleSection\":[\"China\",\"COVID19 Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/\",\"name\":\"The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery - Fact-Checking &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-02-05T16:09:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-04T15:22:40+00:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/05\\\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg\",\"width\":1568,\"height\":941},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"description\":\"Strategic Foresight &amp; Early Warning \uff65 Political &amp; Geopolitical Risk \u00b7 Scenarios\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Red-Team-Analysis\\\/341280995886057\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/helenelavoix\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/5403964\\\/admin\\\/dashboard\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\",\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"description\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Le myst\u00e8re du nouveau coronavirus COVID-19 - V\u00e9rification des faits \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/le-nouveau-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystere-verification-des-faits\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":"The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery - Fact-Checking &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"The new Coronavirus 2019-nCoV epidemic outbreak is a mystery. Indeed, since it became a concern in China at the end of December 2019 and in the early days of January 2020 (WHO timeline), the various actors and authorities involved have been sending contradictory signals regarding the outbreak. This is perplexing, and all the more so &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery &#8211; Fact-Checking\u00a0\u00bb","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/le-nouveau-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystere-verification-des-faits\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2020-02-05T16:09:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-10-04T15:22:40+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1568,"height":941,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"19 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4"},"headline":"The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery &#8211; Fact-Checking","datePublished":"2020-02-05T16:09:00+00:00","dateModified":"2021-10-04T15:22:40+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/"},"wordCount":3794,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg","keywords":["featured"],"articleSection":["China","COVID19 Analysis"],"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/","name":"Le myst\u00e8re du nouveau coronavirus COVID-19 - V\u00e9rification des faits \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg","datePublished":"2020-02-05T16:09:00+00:00","dateModified":"2021-10-04T15:22:40+00:00","inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/05\/the-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg","width":1568,"height":941},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","description":"Prospective strat\u00e9gique et alerte pr\u00e9coce \uff65 Risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques \u00b7 Sc\u00e9narios","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization","name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Red Team Analysis Society"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/helenelavoix\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/5403964\/admin\/dashboard\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4","name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","description":"est pr\u00e9sidente et fondatrice de The Red Team Analysis Society. Elle est titulaire d'un doctorat en \u00e9tudes politiques et d'une ma\u00eetrise en politique internationale de l'Asie (avec distinction) de la School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), Universit\u00e9 de Londres, ainsi que d'une ma\u00eetrise en finance (major de promotion, Grande \u00c9cole, France).\r\n\r\nExperte en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte pr\u00e9coce, notamment pour les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale, elle combine 30 ans d'exp\u00e9rience en relations internationales et pr\u00e8s de 20 ans en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte. Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/stop-sign-4807211_1920.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25522\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25552"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}