{"id":25772,"date":"2020-02-24T18:21:02","date_gmt":"2020-02-24T17:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=25772"},"modified":"2022-05-20T10:14:56","modified_gmt":"2022-05-20T08:14:56","slug":"expression-et-comprehension-langage-estimatif","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/24\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\/","title":{"rendered":"Exprimer et comprendre une langue d'estimation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as &#8220;likely&#8221; and for impacts terms such as &#8220;severe&#8221;. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As explained by Heuer in the case of probability, these are expressions of subjective judgements. As a result, these words are a source of &#8220;ambiguity and misunderstanding&#8221; (Richards J. Jr. Heuer, ,&nbsp;<em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/library\/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence\/csi-publications\/books-and-monographs\/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Psychology of Intelligence Analysis<\/a><\/em>, Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1999: 152).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"members (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\">members<\/a> and <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"trainees (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/course-global-risk-analysis-analytical-model\/\" target=\"_blank\">trainees<\/a> can download below a &#8220;cheat sheet&#8221; of these words with their explanations. For probability we provide the correspondence between subjective words and numerical probability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/download\/25773\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pdf-estimative-language.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25776\" width=\"171\" height=\"243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pdf-estimative-language.jpg 342w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pdf-estimative-language-211x300.jpg 211w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pdf-estimative-language-250x355.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 171px) 100vw, 171px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Click on the image or link to<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/download\/25773\/\"> download<\/a>.<br>(You need to be a member or a trainee to download the file).<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Coverpage image: <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/photos\/dice-chance-gambling-casino-gaming-3095227\/\">Peter Lomas<\/a> via Pixabay [Public Domain]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lorsque nous traitons du futur, nous utilisons un langage qui inclut des notions sp\u00e9cifiques telles que l'expression de la probabilit\u00e9 et des impacts. En termes de probabilit\u00e9, par exemple, nous utilisons des mots comme \"probable\" et pour les impacts des termes comme \"grave\". En outre, pour \u00eatre vraiment complet, nous devrions ajouter un jugement de confiance. Comme expliqu\u00e9 par ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/24\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Exprimer et comprendre le langage estimatif \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24892,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1731,2860],"tags":[1789,156,1224,606,198,1210,2880,2033,123,2331],"class_list":["post-25772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basics","category-featured","tag-featured","tag-future","tag-horizon-scanning","tag-impact","tag-probability","tag-risk","tag-risk-assessment","tag-scenario","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-warning","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/24\/expression-et-comprehension-langage-estimatif\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as &#8220;likely&#8221; and for impacts terms such as &#8220;severe&#8221;. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement. As explained by &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/24\/expression-et-comprehension-langage-estimatif\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-02-24T17:21:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-05-20T08:14:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/dice-3095227-1568.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1569\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-02-24T17:21:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-05-20T08:14:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":159,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/12\\\/dice-3095227-1568.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"future\",\"horizon scanning\",\"impact\",\"probability\",\"risk\",\"risk assessment\",\"scenario\",\"strategic foresight\",\"warning\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Definitions and process\",\"Featured\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/\",\"name\":\"Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language &#8226; 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. 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Elle est titulaire d'un doctorat en \u00e9tudes politiques et d'une ma\u00eetrise en politique internationale de l'Asie (avec distinction) de la School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), Universit\u00e9 de Londres, ainsi que d'une ma\u00eetrise en finance (major de promotion, Grande \u00c9cole, France).\r\n\r\nExperte en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte pr\u00e9coce, notamment pour les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale, elle combine 30 ans d'exp\u00e9rience en relations internationales et pr\u00e8s de 20 ans en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte. Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/dice-3095227-1568.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25772\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}