{"id":26031,"date":"2020-03-13T17:48:09","date_gmt":"2020-03-13T16:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=26031"},"modified":"2021-11-16T13:04:59","modified_gmt":"2021-11-16T12:04:59","slug":"covid-19-pire-cas-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/03\/13\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Les pires sc\u00e9narios de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le 11 mars 2020, la chanceli\u00e8re Merkel lan\u00e7a une alerte en expliquant que le SRAS-CoV-2 - le virus d\u00e9clenchant le COVID-19 - pourrait infecter entre 60 et 70% de la population allemande (DW, \"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Coronavirus : La chanceli\u00e8re allemande Angela Merkel appelle \u00e0 la solidarit\u00e9 et \u00e0 la raison (ouvre un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/coronavirus-germanys-angela-merkel-urges-solidarity-and-reason\/a-52719086\" target=\"_blank\">Coronavirus: Germany\u2019s Angela Merkel urges \u2018solidarity and reason<\/a>\", 11 mars 2020). Elle fut accus\u00e9e de semer la panique (Ibid.). La Chanceli\u00e8re Merkel n\u00e9anmoins et \u00e0 raison soulignait alors le danger tr\u00e8s r\u00e9el auquel les Allemands sont confront\u00e9s. <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/12\/24\/omicron-variant-the-good-the-bad-and-the-intriguing-update-warning\/\">Variant Omicron - Alerte: \"le bon, la brute et 'l'intriguant'\"<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/12\/18\/omicron-variant-major-imminent-threat-warning\/\">Variant Omicron - Alerte: \"menace majeure et imminente\"<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/12\/07\/long-covid-and-the-fifth-wave-three-scenarios\/\">Le COVID long et la cinqui\u00e8me vague - Trois sc\u00e9narios<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/22\/long-covid-and-the-fifth-wave-the-hidden-pandemic\/\">Le COVID long et la cinqui\u00e8me vague - La pand\u00e9mie cach\u00e9e<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/09\/the-fifth-wave-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-lethality\/\">La cinqui\u00e8me vague de la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19 et sa l\u00e9talit\u00e9<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/10\/27\/towards-a-covid-19-fifth-wave\/\">Vers une cinqui\u00e8me vague de Covid-19<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/03\/16\/losing-texas-to-climate-change-and-covid-19\/\">Perdre le Texas \u00e0 cause du changement climatique et du COVID-19 ?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/02\/15\/china-health-silk-road-vaccines-and-security\/\">La Chine, la \"route de la soie de la sant\u00e9\" des vaccins, et la s\u00e9curit\u00e9<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/01\/27\/covid-19-vaccinations-hope-or-mirage\/\">La vaccination contre le COVID-19, espoir ou mirage ?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans cet article, nous expliquons pourquoi, comme l'a expliqu\u00e9 la chanceli\u00e8re Merkel, une pand\u00e9mie telle que celle de COVID-19 est quelque chose de grave. Nous le faisons en \u00e9tablissant un sc\u00e9nario de base brut \"du pire\" qui nous aide \u00e0 \u00e9valuer l'ampleur de la menace. La gravit\u00e9 du danger va d\u00e9terminer pourquoi les autorit\u00e9s politiques doivent prendre en compte ledit danger, soit la pand\u00e9mie, et pourquoi elles doivent prendre des mesures aussi drastiques que le verrouillage complet de pays. Plus important encore, la gravit\u00e9 de la menace va d\u00e9finir les actions \u00e0 mener et ensuite, les impacts r\u00e9els auxquels nous devrons faire face. Dans le m\u00eame temps, nous expliquons \u00e9galement comment le taux utilis\u00e9 par la chanceli\u00e8re Merkel a \u00e9t\u00e9 calcul\u00e9. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Une menace quant \u00e0 la survie prime sur toute autre pr\u00e9occupation<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">L'expertise de RTAS mise en avant sur la cha\u00eene de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision italienne LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Au-del\u00e0 de la g\u00e9opolitique : Comprendre les pressions critiques qui remod\u00e8lent notre monde.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie, alors encore vue comme une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie, de nombreux commentateurs ont tent\u00e9 en permanence de minimiser l'\u00e9tendue possible de la menace. Nous sommes abreuv\u00e9s d'une vaste gamme de commentaires et d'opinions dont la plupart visent \u00e0 \u00eatre positifs, \u00e0 minimiser les probl\u00e8mes, \u00e0 mettre l'\u00e9conomie au premier plan, tout en se moquant souvent des autres, alors que ce dont nous avons besoin sont des \u00e9valuations et des sc\u00e9narios rationnels, reconnaissant l'incertitude en y adjoignant des probabilit\u00e9s. Comme nous l'avons soulign\u00e9 pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, cela d\u00e9coule tr\u00e8s probablement aussi des divers int\u00e9r\u00eats des acteurs, ajout\u00e9s \u00e0 de nombreux biais cognitifs (voir <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/12\/coronavirus-covid-19-epidemic-epidemic-not-only-about-new-virus\/\">L'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de coronavirus COVID-19 ne concerne pas seulement un nouveau virus<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/le-nouveau-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystere-verification-des-faits\/\">Le myst\u00e8re du nouveau coronavirus COVID-19 - V\u00e9rification des faits<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-circle-mask\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"180\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-300x180.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25892\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-16x10.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1038x623.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong>Aidez-nous \u00e0 continuer \u00e0 offrir nos articles sur le COVID-19 en acc\u00e8s libre<\/strong><br><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\">Donation - Aidez-nous \u00e0 financer l'analyse sur le COVID-19<\/a><br><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e9anmoins, nous devons nous rappeler que la mission fondamentale des autorit\u00e9s politiques est d'assurer la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de ceux qu'elles gouvernent (voir <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/28\/risque-politique\/\">Qu'est-ce que le risque politique?<\/a>). En attendant, et tout aussi fondamentalement, les individus veulent survivre. Ainsi, lorsqu'une menace tr\u00e8s directe quand \u00e0 la survie, telle qu'un virus et la maladie qui lui est associ\u00e9e, appara\u00eet et se propage, alors, tr\u00e8s rapidement, toutes les autres questions perdent de leur importance. En fait, la rapidit\u00e9 de la compr\u00e9hension de l'ampleur de la menace d\u00e9terminera \u00e9galement les mesures prises et l'actualisation m\u00eame de la menace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le probl\u00e8me est donc d'\u00e9valuer la menace directe potentielle pour la survie, tant au niveau individuel que collectif.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment \u00e9valuer la menace directe potentielle pour la survie ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Incertitude et prudence compte-tenu de ce que nous savons du fait de l'exp\u00e9rience chinoise<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comme le virus est nouveau, et comme tous les acteurs scientifiques s\u00e9rieux qui s'occupent du SRAS-CoV-2 et du COVID-19 le soulignent en permanence, on ignore encore beaucoup de choses sur le virus et la maladie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\">Financez l'analyse sur le COVID-19<br>S\u00e9lectionner les options<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En outre, la plupart de ce que nous savons sur la maladie et sa propagation vient de Chine. Cela inclut donc la mani\u00e8re dont les Chinois ont g\u00e9r\u00e9 l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie. Nos connaissances actuelles contiennent donc des \u00e9l\u00e9ments sur le virus et la maladie qui peuvent \u00eatre universellement appliqu\u00e9s, mais aussi, \u00e9ventuellement, des particularit\u00e9s, lesquelles seront donc moins applicables facilement. Il ne faut pas oublier que la Chine a d\u00e9ploy\u00e9 des moyens gigantesques pour faire face \u00e0 l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)<\/a> - 16-24 f\u00e9vrier 2020). Ces moyens et actions ont influenc\u00e9 le \"comportement\" de la maladie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces moyens et actions peuvent \u00e9galement avoir influenc\u00e9 le virus lui-m\u00eame. En effet, et m\u00eame si des recherches suppl\u00e9mentaires sont n\u00e9cessaires, dans une \u00e9tude ant\u00e9rieure, Xiaolu Tang, Changcheng Wu, et al. ont constat\u00e9, en \u00e9tudiant les g\u00e9nomes du SRAS-CoV-2, que <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\"... ces virus ont \u00e9volu\u00e9 en deux types principaux (d\u00e9sign\u00e9s L et S)... Alors que le type L \u00e9tait plus r\u00e9pandu dans les premiers stades de l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie \u00e0 Wuhan, la fr\u00e9quence du type L a diminu\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de janvier 2020. L'intervention humaine peut avoir exerc\u00e9 une pression s\u00e9lective plus s\u00e9v\u00e8re sur le type L, qui pourrait \u00eatre plus agressif et se propager plus rapidement. D'autre part, le type S, qui est plus ancien et moins agressif du point de vue de l'\u00e9volution, pourrait avoir augment\u00e9 en fr\u00e9quence relative en raison d'une pression s\u00e9lective relativement plus faible.\"<\/p><cite>Xiaolu Tang, Changcheng Wu, Xiang Li, Yuhe Song, Xinmin Yao, Xinkai Wu, Yuange Duan, Hong Zhang, Yirong Wang, Zhaohui Qian, Jie Cui, Jian Lu, \"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/nsr\/advance-article\/doi\/10.1093\/nsr\/nwaa036\/5775463\" target=\"_blank\">On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em>National Science Review<\/em>, 03 mars 2020,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/nsr\/nwaa036\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/nsr\/nwaa036<\/a> <\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous devons donc \u00eatre tr\u00e8s prudents lorsque nous appliquons l'exp\u00e9rience \"chinoise\" ailleurs. Nous devons nous efforcer de distinguer les variables et de comprendre les processus et les dynamiques en jeu. Cela n'a rien de tr\u00e8s nouveau en science, puisque les approches comparatives sont, par exemple, d\u00e9taill\u00e9es dans l'ouvrage de John Stuart Mills <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l&#039;ouvrage de John Stuart Mills, en anglais, Un syst\u00e8me de logique (qui s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gutenberg.org\/files\/27942\/27942-h\/27942-h.html\" target=\"_blank\"><em>A<\/em> <em>System of Logic<\/em><\/a>&nbsp;(1843) avec la m\u00e9thode d'accord, a m\u00e9thode de diff\u00e9rence et la m\u00e9thode conjointe d'accord et de diff\u00e9rence (voir, par exemple <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/topic\/Mills-methods\" target=\"_blank\">Encyclop\u00e9die Britannica<\/a><\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Utilisation d'un sc\u00e9nario de base brut du \"pire des cas\".<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous sommes donc confront\u00e9s \u00e0 une menace mortelle comportant de nombreuses inconnues, m\u00eame apr\u00e8s deux mois et demi, ce qui, soit dit en passant, en termes scientifiques, est un d\u00e9lai extraordinairement court. Or, l'humanit\u00e9 a connu tout au long de son histoire de nombreuses \u00e9pid\u00e9mies et pand\u00e9mies, et est donc consciente de la catastrophe possible qu'entra\u00eene la propagation d'une maladie. Mais qu'entend-on par \"catastrophe possible\" ? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les communications et les articles scientifiques, ainsi que les articles politiques, \u00e9vitent la plupart du temps de donner des chiffres absolus, probablement en partie par crainte de cr\u00e9er une panique, par humilit\u00e9 parce que nous ne savons pas vraiment et par peur d'\u00eatre ensuite accus\u00e9s d'avoir eu tort. De ce fait, il devient alors vraiment difficile de comprendre la menace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour conna\u00eetre les risques auxquels nous sommes confront\u00e9s, pour pouvoir mieux comprendre ce qui pourrait arriver, ce qu'est une catastrophe, il faut pouvoir se faire une id\u00e9e de la menace que l'on peut repr\u00e9senter. La menace doit avoir un sens. Cela implique de disposer au moins d'un sc\u00e9nario de base brut de la pire \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 en termes de d\u00e9c\u00e8s. En d'autres termes, nous devons avoir une id\u00e9e de ce qui pourrait arriver si nous n'agissions pas. Le but n'est pas d'obtenir quelque chose de pr\u00e9cis et d'exact, mais d'avoir une id\u00e9e imparfaite de l'ampleur possible du co\u00fbt en termes de vies humaines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Une estimation brute de la puissance l\u00e9tale de la menace de COVID-19<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour pouvoir obtenir un sc\u00e9nario de base brut de la pire \u00e9ventualit\u00e9, nous devons d'abord disposer d'un chiffre possible pour le nombre de personnes qui pourraient \u00eatre infect\u00e9es, si rien n'\u00e9tait fait. Bien s\u00fbr, chaque pays et chaque acteur font d\u00e9j\u00e0 beaucoup. Ainsi, comme nous l'avons soulign\u00e9, ce sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence brut du pire expliquera pourquoi les diff\u00e9rentes autorit\u00e9s luttent contre la pand\u00e9mie. Il indiquera l'ampleur de la menace et donc des r\u00e9ponses faites. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous suivrons ici l'\u00e9pid\u00e9miologiste Roy M. Anderson (et al.), qui explique que: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\"Un simple calcul donne la fraction susceptible d'\u00eatre infect\u00e9e sans att\u00e9nuation. Cette fraction est approximativement de 1-1\/R<sub>0<\/sub>.\u201d<\/p><cite>Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T D\u00e9irdre Hollingsworth, \"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Comment les mesures d&#039;att\u00e9nuation prises par les pays influenceront-elles le cours de l&#039;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de COVID-19 ? (s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\">How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?<\/a>\u201d - <em>The Lancet<\/em> - Publi\u00e9 en ligne le 09 mars 2020<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comme nous l'avons <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"expliqu\u00e9 (s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/le-nouveau-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystere-verification-des-faits\/\" target=\"_blank\">expliqu\u00e9<\/a>, <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> (R-z\u00e9ro) ou&nbsp;<strong>taux de reproduction de base<\/strong>&nbsp;d'une maladie infectieuse est une mesure qui repr\u00e9sente \"le nombre attendu de cas secondaires produits par un individu infect\u00e9 typique au d\u00e9but d'une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie\" (O Diekmann ; J.A.P. Heesterbeek et J.A.J. Metz,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/BF00178324\">\u201cOn the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0\u00a0in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations\u201d<\/a>,&nbsp;<em>Journal of Mathematical Biology,<\/em>&nbsp;1990, 28 : 356\u2013382).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">C'est tr\u00e8s probablement le calcul qui se cache derri\u00e8re le chiffre de la chanceli\u00e8re Merkel concernant le nombre d'Allemands que le SRAS-CoV-2 va probablement infecter (Ibid.). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous disposons, \u00e0 l'heure actuelle, d'une s\u00e9rie de <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> possibles pour le COVID-19. Le <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> a \u00e9t\u00e9 estim\u00e9 \u00eatre entre 1,6 et 3,8 (voir <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/02\/05\/le-nouveau-coronavirus-2019-ncov-mystere-verification-des-faits\/\">Le myst\u00e8re du nouveau coronavirus COVID-19 - V\u00e9rification des faits<\/a>). Bien entendu, le <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> \u00e9volue avec le temps et les actions, mais nous ne cherchons qu'une estimation approximative. Anderson et al. utilisent un <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> = 2,6 pour leur estimation brute, ce qui correspond \u00e0 61,54%, et se situe dans la fourchette de 60% \u00e0 70% donn\u00e9e par la chanceli\u00e8re Merkel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En utilisant ces <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>, nous obtenons donc le tableau suivant des sc\u00e9narios de base pour les pires des cas, pour le monde, avec une population estim\u00e9e \u00e0 7,7 milliards de personnes :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table alignwide is-style-stripes\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\n<em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<strong>1,6<\/strong>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<strong>2,2<\/strong>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<strong>2,6<\/strong>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<strong>3,8<\/strong>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>% de la population infect\u00e9e : 1\u20131\/R<sub>0<\/sub><\/strong> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">37,50 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">54,54 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">61,54 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">73,68 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Estimation du taux de l\u00e9talit\u00e9<\/strong> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n0,3 %\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">1 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">2,2 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">3,18 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n0,3 %\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">1 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">2,2 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">3,18 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">0,3 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">1 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">2,2 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">3,18 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n0,3 %\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">1 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">2,2 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">3,18 % <\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Population infect\u00e9e en millions<\/strong> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n2887,5\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">  <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n4200,0\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">  <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">  <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n4738,5\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">  <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n5673,7\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Estimation des d\u00e9c\u00e8s en millions<\/strong> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">8,7 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">28,9 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n63,5\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n91,8\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">12,6 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">42,0 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">92,4 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">133,6 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">14,2 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">47,4 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">104,2 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">150,7 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">17,0 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">56,7 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">124,8 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">180,4 <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, au pire, compte tenu de ce que l'on sait du SRAS-CoV-2 ou estim\u00e9 su le virus au 12 mars 2020, en supposant qu'aucune mesure n'ait \u00e9t\u00e9 prise, nous aurions pu avoir \u00e0 faire face \u00e0 entre 8,7 et 180,4 millions de d\u00e9c\u00e8s directs dans le monde. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il est important de souligner ici que les estimations concernent les d\u00e9c\u00e8s directs. En effet, si l'on consid\u00e8re la situation tragique de l'Italie, le taux de l\u00e9talit\u00e9 est beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 et a atteint le chiffre stup\u00e9fiant de 6,7% le 12 mars 2020. Le Pr. Ricciardi donne diverses causes possibles pour le taux de mortalit\u00e9 beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en Italie, allant des moyens d'\u00e9tablir des statistiques aux impacts sur le taux de mortalit\u00e9 des h\u00f4pitaux d\u00e9bord\u00e9s ( <em>\u201c<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.startmag.it\/mondo\/coronavirus-ricciardi-oms\/\" target=\"_blank\">Coronavirus, contagiati e morti : cosa succeder\u00e0 in Usa, Francia e Germania. Parla Ricciardi (Oms-Salute)<\/a>\u201c<\/em>). Ces derni\u00e8res peuvent notamment \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme des causes de d\u00e9c\u00e8s indirectes et en cascade - mais tr\u00e8s r\u00e9elles. Elles ne sont donc pas incluses dans l'estimation brute calcul\u00e9e ici. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-large is-style-default\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1404\" height=\"820\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-26017\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate.jpg 1404w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-300x175.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-768x449.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-1320x771.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-250x146.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-1038x606.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1404px) 100vw, 1404px\" \/><figcaption>COVID-19 Estimation de base dans les pires des cas - <br>Morts potentielles dans le monde si rien n'avait \u00e9t\u00e9 fait - Les quatre premi\u00e8res colonnes correspondent aux estimations d'un <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> = \u00e0 1,6 soit 37,5% de la population infect\u00e9e. Les quatre estimations suivantes correspondent \u00e0 un <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> = \u00e0 2,2 donc 54.54%% de la population infect\u00e9e, etc. - Dans chaque groupe de quatre colonnes, la premi\u00e8re correspond \u00e0 un CFR (Case fatality rate\/Taux de l\u00e9talit\u00e9) = 0,3%, la seconde \u00e0 un CFR = 1% puis \u00e0 un CRF = 2,2%, et enfin \u00e0 un CFR = 3,8%<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si l'on consid\u00e8re que le nombre de victimes de la Seconde Guerre mondiale se situe entre 70 et 85 millions, alors, au pire, le COVID-19 aurait pu \u00eatre plus de deux fois plus meurtrier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vous pouvez faire le calcul pour chaque pays. Pour la Chine, par exemple, les d\u00e9c\u00e8s potentiels auraient pu signifier entre 1,6 et 32,4 millions de morts ; pour les \u00c9tats-Unis, entre 0,4 et 7,6 millions de morts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En supposant que la Chine ait effectivement compl\u00e8tement surmont\u00e9 la menace et qu'elle ne soit pas \u00e0 nouveau infect\u00e9e par d'autres pays en proie \u00e0 l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, le nombre possible de d\u00e9c\u00e8s dans le monde est d\u00e9sormais plus faible. La menace de base est n\u00e9anmoins toujours pr\u00e9sente pour les autres pays. Et un certain risque demeure \u00e9galement pour la Chine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces chiffres ne sont effectivement que des estimations grossi\u00e8res, mais l'impact possible tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9 justifie les immenses efforts d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s. Ils justifient que chacun prenne la pand\u00e9mie au s\u00e9rieux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Et ici, les souffrances des 13.8% de personnes qui souffriront probablement d'une <strong>forme grave de la maladie <\/strong>et les 6.1% qui seront en <strong>soin critique <\/strong>n'est pas prise en compte (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)<\/a> - 16-24 f\u00e9vrier 2020, p.12.). Si l'on applique le m\u00eame calcul, dans le cas d'un <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> = 2,6, soit 61,5 % de la population qui est infect\u00e9e, cela signifie que, sans aucune action, 653,9 millions de personnes risqueraient de souffrir d'une forme grave et 289 millions seraient dans un \u00e9tat critique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La diff\u00e9rence stup\u00e9fiante entre le calcul approximatif ci-dessus et la r\u00e9alit\u00e9, en Chine, des cas d\u00e9tect\u00e9s - 80.945 le 13 mars 2020 - et des d\u00e9c\u00e8s - 3.180 - est \u00e0 la fois un hommage au succ\u00e8s des efforts gigantesques de la Chine (rapport de l'OMS, ibid.) et un double avertissement. Tout d'abord, la diff\u00e9rence entre les chiffres r\u00e9els et les estimations souligne que les estimations approximatives \"des pires des cas\" ne sont rien d'autre qu'une \u00e9valuation grossi\u00e8re du danger encouru. Deuxi\u00e8mement, et c'est peut-\u00eatre le plus important, la diff\u00e9rence entre les chiffres r\u00e9els et les estimations souligne \u00e9galement que les efforts gigantesques ne sont peut-\u00eatre pas une option mais une n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 imp\u00e9rative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Image en vedette : John Hopkins CSSE -&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/opsdashboard\/index.html#\/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6\" target=\"_blank\">Suivi en temps r\u00e9el de la propagation du COVID-19 (ex 2019-nCoV)<\/a>&nbsp;- carte pour le 13 mars 2020 - 17:43 CET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un bref r\u00e9sum\u00e9 sous forme de Q&amp;R<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\"><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1585750523488\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Pouvons-nous cr\u00e9er des sc\u00e9narios catastrophe pour la pand\u00e9mie COVID-19 ?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Oui, certainement, nous le pouvons. Nous pouvons utiliser des estimations faites pour des mesures scientifiques pour \u00e9valuer les cas les pires qui pourraient advenir pour la pand\u00e9mie COVID-19. Cela est en fait n\u00e9cessaire pour conna\u00eetre l'ampleur de la menace, le risque et donc pour d\u00e9cider de l'ampleur des r\u00e9ponses.<\/p> <\/div> <div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1585750546150\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Quel pourrait \u00eatre le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s caus\u00e9s par le COVID-19 ?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Dans le monde entier, au pire, compte tenu de ce que l'on sait du SRAS-CoV-2 et de ce qui est estim\u00e9 au 12 mars 2020, en supposant qu'aucune mesure n'ait \u00e9t\u00e9 prise, nous aurions pu \u00eatre confront\u00e9s \u00e0 entre 8,7 et 180,4 millions de d\u00e9c\u00e8s directs.<br\/>Cela signifie que le COVID-19 aurait pu \u00eatre plus de deux fois plus meurtrier que la Seconde Guerre mondiale.<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate.jpg\"\/><\/p> <\/div> <\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le 11 mars, la chanceli\u00e8re Merkel a pr\u00e9venu que le SRAS-CoV-2 - le virus du COVID-19 - pourrait infecter entre 60 et 70% de la population allemande (DW, \"Coronavirus : Germany's Angela Merkel urges 'solidarity and reason'\", 11 mars 2020). Elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 accus\u00e9e de semer la panique (Ibid.). Le point de vue de la chanceli\u00e8re Merkel \u00e9tait de souligner le danger tr\u00e8s r\u00e9el que les Allemands .... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/03\/13\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Sc\u00e9narios de base les plus d\u00e9favorables pour la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19 \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26037,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2497,2903,3247],"tags":[3240,3239],"class_list":["post-26031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-covid19-scenarios","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-baseline-scenario","tag-worst-case-scenario","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Here we assess the magnitude of the COVID-19 threat by using scientific measurements to estimate the fatalities had no measures been implemented.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/03\/13\/covid-19-pire-cas-scenarios\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Here we assess the magnitude of the COVID-19 threat by using scientific measurements to estimate the fatalities had no measures been implemented.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/03\/13\/covid-19-pire-cas-scenarios\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-13T16:48:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-16T12:04:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/pandemic-cov-19-13-March-2020.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1619\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/13\\\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/13\\\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-03-13T16:48:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-16T12:04:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/13\\\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2016,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/13\\\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/pandemic-cov-19-13-March-2020.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"baseline scenario\",\"worst case scenario\"],\"articleSection\":[\"China\",\"COVID19 Scenarios\",\"Real World Examples of Scenarios\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/13\\\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":[\"WebPage\",\"FAQPage\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/13\\\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/03\\\/13\\\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\\\/\",\"name\":\"Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic &#8226; 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