{"id":26401,"date":"2020-04-09T16:53:31","date_gmt":"2020-04-09T14:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=26401"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:10:10","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:10:10","slug":"the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/04\/09\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\/","title":{"rendered":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 9 avril 2020 - COVID-19 Surcharge cognitive ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voici le num\u00e9ro du 9 avril 2020 de notre analyse hebdomadaire des risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques (en libre acc\u00e8s). L\u00e0 encore, une tr\u00e8s grande partie est consacr\u00e9e au COVID-19. Lisez le scan ci-dessous, apr\u00e8s l'\u00e9ditorial, assez long cette semaine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c9ditorial:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tout d'abord, l'analyse de cette semaine pr\u00e9sente l'excellent article \"Stretching the International Order to Its Breaking Point\" de Thomas Wright, Senior fellow \u00e0 la Brookings Institution de <em>L'Atlantique<\/em>. Le point fort de l'article est le suivant : <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\"La plus grande erreur que les analystes g\u00e9opolitiques puissent faire est de croire que la crise sera termin\u00e9e dans trois ou quatre mois\". <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce ne sont pas seulement les analystes g\u00e9opolitiques qui commettent cette erreur, mais, apparemment, une majorit\u00e9 de plus en plus importante de personnes, quels que soient leur position et leur r\u00f4le dans le syst\u00e8me. <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alors que nous progressons ici, \u00e0 la Red (Team) Analysis Society, avec l'\u00e9laboration de sc\u00e9narios pour le COVID-19, l'id\u00e9e d'une crise avec une fin rapide semble de plus en plus improbable, pour ne pas dire impossible. Le COVID-19 est une pand\u00e9mie, caus\u00e9e par un virus dangereux et tr\u00e8s contagieux dont nous savons tr\u00e8s peu de choses. Il est tr\u00e8s improbable qu'il disparaisse comme par magie, parce qu'il est g\u00eanant pour les \u00eatres humains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L'esquisse que Wright peint pour l'avenir est tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressante et doit absolument \u00eatre lue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le deuxi\u00e8me point que je voudrais soulever pour cette analyse, compte tenu des signaux recueillis, est l'incroyable masse de textes, articles, messages, etc. produits sur le COVID-19. Ce ne sont pas seulement les cas COVID-19 qui connaissent une croissance exponentielle, mais aussi les publications \u00e0 ce sujet. Ainsi, nous sommes \u00e9galement confront\u00e9s aux dangers d'une \u00e9norme surcharge d'informations. Il est impossible de garder une trace de tous les articles. Il est m\u00eame impossible de les parcourir pour distinguer les articles de qualit\u00e9 des d\u00e9chets, les articles s\u00e9rieux des fausses nouvelles, les analyses scientifiques des simples opinions. Nous ne pouvons certainement pas nous fier \u00e0 Google ou aux moteurs de recherche, car leurs algorithmes privil\u00e9gient rarement la qualit\u00e9 et la pertinence. Google, par exemple, dans son classement, accorde une grande importance \u00e0 la vitesse de lecture des pages et aux articles commerciaux. Mais ces crit\u00e8res sont-ils vraiment importants pour trouver des articles vraiment cruciaux sur les principales incertitudes concernant la COVID-19 ? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La surcharge d'informations de COVID-19 acc\u00e9l\u00e9rera la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de la fermeture, d\u00e9j\u00e0 renforc\u00e9e par le stress et la crise. Le besoin de fermeture est l'imp\u00e9rieuse n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d'obtenir des r\u00e9ponses, n'importe lesquelles, imm\u00e9diatement. Il augmente notamment avec la pression du temps, critique en cas de stress et de crise, et avec le bruit ambiant, qui comprend la surcharge d'informations (pour en savoir plus sur la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de fermeture, les biais cognitifs en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral et les strat\u00e9gies pour les att\u00e9nuer, voir notre <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/cours-global-risque-analyse-modele-analytique\/\" target=\"_blank\">Cours en ligne 1 - Risques g\u00e9opolitiques et anticipation des crises : Mod\u00e8le analytique<\/a> - module 2). Bien entendu, face \u00e0 une pand\u00e9mie, il n'est pas tr\u00e8s judicieux de sauter aux d\u00e9cisions et aux r\u00e9ponses. Au contraire, il faut penser de mani\u00e8re pacifique et utiliser des analyses fond\u00e9es sur des preuves, et attendre, si n\u00e9cessaire, que des analyses appropri\u00e9es et des r\u00e9sultats scientifiques soient disponibles. Il faut donc avoir un faible besoin de cl\u00f4ture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Or, le moyen m\u00eame dont nous disposons pour obtenir des analyses et des articles scientifiques, le web, en raison de la quantit\u00e9 massive de textes sur le COVID-19, cr\u00e9e une surcharge d'informations et de connaissances qui, \u00e0 son tour, g\u00e9n\u00e8re un besoin de fermeture ; ainsi, la capacit\u00e9 de penser s'arr\u00eate. Ainsi, pour pouvoir savoir, nous affaiblissons notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 penser. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une catastrophe se profile \u00e0 l'horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les acteurs vont probablement se rabattre sur les moyens classiques d'obtenir des informations : le syst\u00e8me tel qu'il existe (qui comprend \u00e9galement les algorithmes Google, Bing et autres, ant\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 COVID-19). Mais cela nous am\u00e8ne \u00e0 poser une question tr\u00e8s g\u00eanante : ce qui nous a tous conduits \u00e0 l'apparition d'une maladie totalement inconnue, puis \u00e0 une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie, puis \u00e0 une pand\u00e9mie, avec toute l'impr\u00e9paration qui est partout de plus en plus document\u00e9e, c'est ce syst\u00e8me m\u00eame. Ce syst\u00e8me est-il donc le meilleur pour s\u00e9lectionner les informations pertinentes et fiables dont nous avons besoin pour faire face \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie et la surmonter ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si ce n'est pas le syst\u00e8me, alors quoi ? Une partie du syst\u00e8me pourrait-elle \u00eatre r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9e et les autres parties devraient-elles \u00eatre abandonn\u00e9es ? Notre sujet est ici la s\u00e9lection de la qualit\u00e9 et l'analyse pertinente, mais ces questions doivent-elles aussi \u00eatre \u00e9tendues \u00e0 l'ensemble du syst\u00e8me ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le Scan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e2ce au scan (balayage d'horizon), chaque semaine, nous recueillons des signaux faibles - et moins faibles. Ceux-ci indiquent des probl\u00e8mes nouveaux, \u00e9mergents, en voie d'intensification ou, au contraire, de stabilisation. En cons\u00e9quence, ils indiquent comment les tendances ou les dynamiques \u00e9voluent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/mag.sigils.redanalysis.org\/#\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Le 9 avril 2020 scan\u2192<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:23.8%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:52.4%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons aligncenter is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button translation-block\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>B\u00e9n\u00e9ficiez de l'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 tous nos articles et <br>contribuez \u00e0\nla publication d'analyses objectives et ind\u00e9pendantes, en libre acc\u00e8s, sur la COVID-19<\/em><br>Adh\u00e9rez!<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Faites un don de n'importe quel montant et\nanalyse des fonds sur le COVID-19\nFaites un don maintenant !<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:23.8%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Balayage d'horizon (Horizon scanning), signaux faibles et biais<\/h4>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">Impacts de la menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : l'accord commercial entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l'UE, le Parlement europ\u00e9en et l'avenir de l'Europe<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous caract\u00e9risons des signaux comme faibles, lorsqu'il est encore difficile de les discerner parmi un vaste \u00e9ventail d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements. Cependant, nos biais cognitifs alt\u00e8rent souvent notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 mesurer la force d'un signal. Par cons\u00e9quent, la perception de la force d'un signal variera, en fait, en fonction de la conscience de l'acteur. Au pire, les biais cognitifs peuvent \u00eatre si forts qu'ils bloquent compl\u00e8tement l'identification m\u00eame du signal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le domaine de la prospective et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce strat\u00e9giques, de la pr\u00e9vention et de la gestion des risques, il appartient aux bons analystes de faire des scans ou balayages d'horizon. Ainsi, ils peuvent percevoir et identifier les signaux. Les analystes \u00e9valuent ensuite la force de ces signaux en fonction de risques et de dynamiques sp\u00e9cifiques. Enfin, ils livrent leurs conclusions aux utilisateurs. Ces utilisateurs peuvent \u00eatre d'autres analystes, leur hi\u00e9rarchie ou d'autres d\u00e9cideurs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vous pouvez trouver une explication plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9e dans l'un de nos articles de fond : <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\" target=\"_blank\">Balayage d'horizon (horizon scanning) et veille pour l'alerte pr\u00e9coce : D\u00e9finition et pratique<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les sections du scan<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Chaque section se concentre sur les signaux li\u00e9s \u00e0 un th\u00e8me sp\u00e9cifique : <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><em>monde (politique internationale et g\u00e9opolitique) ; <\/em><\/li><li><em>\u00e9conomie ;<\/em><\/li><li><em>la science, y compris l'IA, le QIS, la technologie et les armes, ; <\/em><\/li><li><em>l'analyse, la strat\u00e9gie et l'avenir ; <\/em><\/li><li><em>la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19 ; <\/em><\/li><li><em>l'\u00e9nergie et l'environnement. <\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Cependant, dans un monde complexe, les cat\u00e9gories ne sont qu'un moyen pratique de pr\u00e9senter des informations, alors que faits et \u00e9v\u00e9nements interagissent au-del\u00e0 des fronti\u00e8res.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les informations recueillies (crowdsourcing) ne signifient pas que nous les cautionnons.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Image : <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Voie lact\u00e9e au-dessus de SPECULOOS (ouvre un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/images\/2019_07_04_SPECULOOS_Horizon_Pano_24mm_Nice_Cut-CC\/\" target=\"_blank\">Voie lact\u00e9e au-dessus de SPECULOOS<\/a> \/ La recherche de plan\u00e8tes habitables - EClipsing ULtra-cOOl Stars (SPECULOOS) est \u00e0 la recherche de plan\u00e8tes semblables \u00e0 la Terre autour de minuscules et faibles \u00e9toiles devant un panorama de la Voie lact\u00e9e. <strong>Cr\u00e9dit : <\/strong>ESO\/P. Hor\u00e1lek.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Voici l'\u00e9dition du 9 avril 2020 de notre veille hebdomadaire sur les risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques (en acc\u00e8s libre). Une fois encore, une tr\u00e8s grande partie est consacr\u00e9e au COVID-19. Lisez le scan ci-dessous, apr\u00e8s l'\u00e9ditorial, assez long cette semaine. Editorial Tout d'abord, le scan de cette semaine pr\u00e9sente l'excellent article \"Stretching the International Order to Its Breaking ...\". <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/04\/09\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 9 avril 2020 - COVID-19 Surcharge cognitive ?<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3249],"tags":[27,2883],"class_list":["post-26401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-bias","tag-covid-19","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 9 April 2020 - COVID-19 Cognitive Overload? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This is the 9 April 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks, with an editorial on COVID-19 information and cognitive overload.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/04\/09\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 9 April 2020 - COVID-19 Cognitive Overload? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is the 9 April 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks, with an editorial on COVID-19 information and cognitive overload.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/04\/09\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-04-09T14:53:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:10:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/2019_07_04_SPECULOOS_Horizon_Pano_24mm_Nice_Cut-CC.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1582\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/04\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/04\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly &#8211; 9 April 2020 &#8211; COVID-19 Cognitive Overload?\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-04-09T14:53:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-14T08:10:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/04\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1008,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/04\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/2019_07_04_SPECULOOS_Horizon_Pano_24mm_Nice_Cut-CC.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"bias\",\"covid-19\"],\"articleSection\":[\"The Weekly Scan - Editorial Archives\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/04\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/04\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/04\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-april-2020-covid-19-cognitive-overload\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 9 April 2020 - COVID-19 Cognitive Overload? 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