{"id":27331,"date":"2020-07-09T13:10:24","date_gmt":"2020-07-09T11:10:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=27331"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:10:09","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:10:09","slug":"the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-july-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/07\/09\/disruptive-questions-the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-july-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Disruptive Questions - The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 9 juillet 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voici l'\u00e9dition du 9 juillet 2020 de notre hebdomadaire scan pour les risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques (acc\u00e8s libre). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c9ditorial:<\/strong>: La tension avec la Chine ne cesse de monter, alors que les \u00c9tats-Unis se d\u00e9battent p\u00e9niblement avec la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19. Alors que le monde est d\u00e9sormais empreint de tant d'incertitudes, deux acteurs, notamment la Turquie et l'Inde, tentent de profiter de la situation pour faire avancer leur agenda, alors que l'\u00c9tat islamique est toujours l\u00e0. Pendant ce temps, de nombreux \u00c9tats europ\u00e9ens et l'UE, ainsi que le monde financier et \u00e9conomique, pour une grande partie, semblent avoir choisi d'ignorer la pand\u00e9mie, alors que le COVID-19 ne faiblit pas, loin de l\u00e0, m\u00eame si nous ne commen\u00e7ons \u00e0 d\u00e9couvrir les possibles impacts neurologiques \u00e0 long terme de la maladie qu'apr\u00e8s la gu\u00e9rison. Comme le dit Ed Yong, dans <em>L'Atlantique<\/em> le dit en ce qui concerne les Am\u00e9ricains, mais cela peut s'appliquer \u00e0 de nombreux acteurs, \"la pand\u00e9mie de coronavirus&nbsp;<em>a<\/em>&nbsp;deviennent des bruits blancs - de vieilles nouvelles qui se sont effac\u00e9es \u00e0 l'arri\u00e8re-plan de leur vie\" (\"Les experts en pand\u00e9mie ne sont pas d'accord\", 7 juillet 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Par cons\u00e9quent, du point de vue id\u00e9al de la stabilit\u00e9 et de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 pour tous assur\u00e9es par des autorit\u00e9s politiques l\u00e9gitimes, les signaux d'alerte sont au rouge. Plus la situation actuelle durera, plus les chances d'assister \u00e0 des r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ables pour de nombreux acteurs seront grandes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans ce cadre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, nous devons \u00e9galement poser quelques questions perturbatrices, pour rester fid\u00e8les \u00e0 l'approche de l'\u00e9quipe rouge. Quels pays g\u00e8rent le mieux la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19 et semblent donc se soucier davantage de leurs citoyens : les pays d'Extr\u00eame-Orient comme la Cor\u00e9e du Sud, le Japon et la Chine, ou de nombreux pays du G7 ? Cela implique-t-il que des valeurs telles que les \"droits de l'homme\" sont remises en question \u00e0 un niveau tr\u00e8s profond dans les pays qui traitent la pand\u00e9mie comme un \"bruit de fond\" ? Si les valeurs fondamentales sont remises en question, quel est l'impact sur la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 et sur sa gouvernance ? En cons\u00e9quence, si les gens et les citoyens ne se sentent pas prot\u00e9g\u00e9s, et au cas o\u00f9 une puissance \u00e9trang\u00e8re d\u00e9velopperait des strat\u00e9gies offensives intelligentes pour accro\u00eetre son influence - et ses actifs - \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger, avec qui se rangeraient les citoyens d\u00e9laiss\u00e9s ?<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e2ce au scan (balayage d'horizon), chaque semaine, nous recueillons des signaux faibles - et moins faibles. Ceux-ci indiquent des probl\u00e8mes nouveaux, \u00e9mergents, en voie d'intensification ou, au contraire, de stabilisation. En cons\u00e9quence, ils indiquent comment les tendances ou les dynamiques \u00e9voluent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/mag.sigils.redanalysis.org\/#\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Le 9 juillet 2020 scan\u2192<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:23.8%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:52.4%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-fe48e5de wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Aidez-nous \u00e0 continuer \u00e0 offrir gratuitement<br>analyse sur la <br>COVID-19<br>Adh\u00e9rez et devenez membre<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Faites un don de n'importe quel montant et\nanalyse des fonds sur le COVID-19\nFaites un don maintenant !<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:23.8%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Balayage d'horizon (Horizon scanning), signaux faibles et biais<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">Impacts de la menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : l'accord commercial entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l'UE, le Parlement europ\u00e9en et l'avenir de l'Europe<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous caract\u00e9risons des signaux comme faibles, lorsqu'il est encore difficile de les discerner parmi un vaste \u00e9ventail d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements. Cependant, nos biais cognitifs alt\u00e8rent souvent notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 mesurer la force d'un signal. Par cons\u00e9quent, la perception de la force d'un signal variera, en fait, en fonction de la conscience de l'acteur. Au pire, les biais cognitifs peuvent \u00eatre si forts qu'ils bloquent compl\u00e8tement l'identification m\u00eame du signal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le domaine de la prospective et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce strat\u00e9giques, de la pr\u00e9vention et de la gestion des risques, il appartient aux bons analystes de faire des scans ou balayages d'horizon. Ainsi, ils peuvent percevoir et identifier les signaux. Les analystes \u00e9valuent ensuite la force de ces signaux en fonction de risques et de dynamiques sp\u00e9cifiques. Enfin, ils livrent leurs conclusions aux utilisateurs. Ces utilisateurs peuvent \u00eatre d'autres analystes, leur hi\u00e9rarchie ou d'autres d\u00e9cideurs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vous pouvez trouver une explication plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9e dans l'un de nos articles de fond : <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\" target=\"_blank\">Balayage d'horizon (horizon scanning) et veille pour l'alerte pr\u00e9coce : D\u00e9finition et pratique<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les sections du scan<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Chaque section se concentre sur les signaux li\u00e9s \u00e0 un th\u00e8me sp\u00e9cifique : <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>monde (politique internationale et g\u00e9opolitique) ; <\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>\u00e9conomie ;<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>la science, y compris l'IA, le QIS, la technologie et les armes, ; <\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>l'analyse, la strat\u00e9gie et l'avenir ; <\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19 ; <\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>l'\u00e9nergie et l'environnement. <\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Cependant, dans un monde complexe, les cat\u00e9gories ne sont qu'un moyen pratique de pr\u00e9senter des informations, alors que faits et \u00e9v\u00e9nements interagissent au-del\u00e0 des fronti\u00e8res.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les informations recueillies (crowdsourcing) ne signifient pas que nous les cautionnons.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Image : <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Voie lact\u00e9e au-dessus de SPECULOOS (ouvre un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/images\/2019_07_04_SPECULOOS_Horizon_Pano_24mm_Nice_Cut-CC\/\" target=\"_blank\">Voie lact\u00e9e au-dessus de SPECULOOS<\/a> \/ La recherche de plan\u00e8tes habitables - EClipsing ULtra-cOOl Stars (SPECULOOS) est \u00e0 la recherche de plan\u00e8tes semblables \u00e0 la Terre autour de minuscules et faibles \u00e9toiles devant un panorama de la Voie lact\u00e9e. <strong>Cr\u00e9dit : <\/strong>ESO\/P. Hor\u00e1lek.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Voici l'\u00e9dition du 9 juillet 2020 de notre veille hebdomadaire sur les risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques (en acc\u00e8s libre). Editorial : La tension avec la Chine ne cesse de monter, alors que les \u00c9tats-Unis se d\u00e9battent douloureusement avec la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19. Alors que le monde est d\u00e9sormais travers\u00e9 par tant d'incertitudes, deux acteurs notamment, la Turquie et l'Inde, tentent de prendre ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/07\/09\/disruptive-questions-the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-july-2020\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Questions d\u00e9rangeantes - L'\u00e9quipe rouge Analyse hebdomadaire - 9 juillet 2020 \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3249],"tags":[2883,2057,446,2680,522],"class_list":["post-27331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-covid-19","tag-india","tag-turkey","tag-u-s-china","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Disruptive Questions - The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 9 July 2020 &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This is the 9 July 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks, as tensions rise and the COVID19 dangerously becomes white noise.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/07\/09\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-july-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Disruptive Questions - The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 9 July 2020 &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is the 9 July 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks, as tensions rise and the COVID19 dangerously becomes white noise.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/07\/09\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-july-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-07-09T11:10:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:10:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/2019_07_04_SPECULOOS_Horizon_Pano_24mm_Nice_Cut-CC.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1582\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/07\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-july-2020\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2020\\\/07\\\/09\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-july-2020\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Disruptive Questions &#8211; 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