{"id":27388,"date":"2020-07-16T18:47:30","date_gmt":"2020-07-16T16:47:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=27388"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:10:09","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:10:09","slug":"au-dela-du-miroir-lanalyse-de-lequipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-16-juillet-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/07\/16\/beyond-the-looking-glass-the-red-team-analysis-weekly-16-july-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Au-del\u00e0 du \"miroir\" - The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 16 juillet 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voici l'\u00e9dition du 16 juillet 2020 de notre analyse hebdomadaire des risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques (en acc\u00e8s libre). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c9ditorial:<\/strong>: Dans le cadre d'un \u00e9ditorial tr\u00e8s court, nous mettons en \u00e9vidence deux articles extr\u00eamement int\u00e9ressants, non seulement en raison de leur contenu, mais aussi de la plateforme de publication qui les consid\u00e8re, \u00e0 savoir Reuters. Le contenu et l'\u00e9diteur rendent ces articles inhabituels et, par cons\u00e9quent, ils deviennent des signaux significatifs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Et oui, j'ai trich\u00e9, l'algorithme ne les a pas choisis et ils ne sont pas issus du crowdsourcing. Je les ai ajout\u00e9s manuellement, car ce sont des signaux importants de changement, potentiellement un changement tr\u00e8s profond \u00e0 l'\u0153uvre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces deux articles sont \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-global-economy-stocks-breakingviews\/breakingviews-chancellor-wall-street-is-firmly-in-wonderland-idUSKBN24A219\">Breakingviews - Chancelier : Wall Street est au pays des merveilles<\/a>\"d'Edward Chancellor et \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-economy-data-analysis\/how-to-read-u-s-economic-data-without-the-spin-idUSKCN24F151\">Comment interpr\u00e9ter les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricaines, sans d\u00e9tour ?<\/a>\" par Ann Saphir. Je vous recommande vivement de les lire tous les deux, \u00e0 la lumi\u00e8re de tous les autres signaux recueillis, et bien s\u00fbr dans le cadre de la situation mondiale actuelle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ajout\u00e9s, par exemple, \u00e0 la lettre des milliardaires demandant \u00e0 \u00eatre tax\u00e9s (oui, c'est possible), ces deux articles soulignent que le syst\u00e8me que nous connaissons au moins depuis la fin de la guerre froide, et probablement avant, vit tr\u00e8s probablement ses derniers jours (cela peut \u00eatre des mois). Ils t\u00e9moignent \u00e9galement de la mont\u00e9e du m\u00e9contentement et de l'exasp\u00e9ration. Qu'une agence de presse internationale s\u00e9rieuse comme Reuters puisse mettre en lumi\u00e8re les faits et la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d'une mani\u00e8re aussi satyrique est \u00e9tonnant en soi. Le fait que la cible du satyre soit le monde financier, l'\u00e9conomie, les \u00c9tats-Unis, l'\u00e9tat d'esprit positif et les strat\u00e9gies de communication \"brillantes\" o\u00f9 tout est fantastique, incroyable et g\u00e9nial, quel que soit le d\u00e9sastre r\u00e9el auquel il s'attaque, est r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous sommes probablement \u00e0 l'aube de changements tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressants.<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e2ce au scan (balayage d'horizon), chaque semaine, nous recueillons des signaux faibles - et moins faibles. Ceux-ci indiquent des probl\u00e8mes nouveaux, \u00e9mergents, en voie d'intensification ou, au contraire, de stabilisation. En cons\u00e9quence, ils indiquent comment les tendances ou les dynamiques \u00e9voluent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mag.sigils.redanalysis.org\/?edition_id=b59eadc0-c739-11ea-aabf-0cc47a0d164b#\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"ind\u00e9fini (ouvre un nouvel onglet)\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Le scan du 16 juillet 2020<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:23.8%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:52.4%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons aligncenter is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/adh%c3%a9sion-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Aidez-nous \u00e0 continuer \u00e0 offrir gratuitement<br>analyse sur la <br>COVID-19<br>Adh\u00e9rez et devenez membre<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/produit\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Faites un don de n'importe quel montant et\nanalyse des fonds sur le COVID-19\nFaites un don maintenant !<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:23.8%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Balayage d'horizon (Horizon scanning), signaux faibles et biais<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">L'expertise de RTAS mise en avant sur la cha\u00eene de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision italienne LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Au-del\u00e0 de la g\u00e9opolitique : Comprendre les pressions critiques qui remod\u00e8lent notre monde.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous caract\u00e9risons des signaux comme faibles, lorsqu'il est encore difficile de les discerner parmi un vaste \u00e9ventail d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements. Cependant, nos biais cognitifs alt\u00e8rent souvent notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 mesurer la force d'un signal. Par cons\u00e9quent, la perception de la force d'un signal variera, en fait, en fonction de la conscience de l'acteur. Au pire, les biais cognitifs peuvent \u00eatre si forts qu'ils bloquent compl\u00e8tement l'identification m\u00eame du signal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le domaine de la prospective et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce strat\u00e9giques, de la pr\u00e9vention et de la gestion des risques, il appartient aux bons analystes de faire des scans ou balayages d'horizon. Ainsi, ils peuvent percevoir et identifier les signaux. Les analystes \u00e9valuent ensuite la force de ces signaux en fonction de risques et de dynamiques sp\u00e9cifiques. Enfin, ils livrent leurs conclusions aux utilisateurs. Ces utilisateurs peuvent \u00eatre d'autres analystes, leur hi\u00e9rarchie ou d'autres d\u00e9cideurs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vous pouvez trouver une explication plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9e dans l'un de nos articles de fond : <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\" target=\"_blank\">Balayage d'horizon (horizon scanning) et veille pour l'alerte pr\u00e9coce : D\u00e9finition et pratique<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les sections du scan<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Chaque section se concentre sur les signaux li\u00e9s \u00e0 un th\u00e8me sp\u00e9cifique : <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><em>monde (politique internationale et g\u00e9opolitique) ; <\/em><\/li><li><em>\u00e9conomie ;<\/em><\/li><li><em>la science, y compris l'IA, le QIS, la technologie et les armes, ; <\/em><\/li><li><em>l'analyse, la strat\u00e9gie et l'avenir ; <\/em><\/li><li><em>la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19 ; <\/em><\/li><li><em>l'\u00e9nergie et l'environnement. <\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Cependant, dans un monde complexe, les cat\u00e9gories ne sont qu'un moyen pratique de pr\u00e9senter des informations, alors que faits et \u00e9v\u00e9nements interagissent au-del\u00e0 des fronti\u00e8res.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les informations recueillies (crowdsourcing) ne signifient pas que nous les cautionnons.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Image : <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Voie lact\u00e9e au-dessus de SPECULOOS (ouvre un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/images\/2019_07_04_SPECULOOS_Horizon_Pano_24mm_Nice_Cut-CC\/\" target=\"_blank\">Voie lact\u00e9e au-dessus de SPECULOOS<\/a> \/ La recherche de plan\u00e8tes habitables - EClipsing ULtra-cOOl Stars (SPECULOOS) est \u00e0 la recherche de plan\u00e8tes semblables \u00e0 la Terre autour de minuscules et faibles \u00e9toiles devant un panorama de la Voie lact\u00e9e. <strong>Cr\u00e9dit : <\/strong>ESO\/P. Hor\u00e1lek.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Voici l'\u00e9dition du 16 juillet 2020 de notre veille hebdomadaire sur les risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques (en acc\u00e8s libre). Editorial : Comme un tr\u00e8s court \u00e9ditorial, nous soulignons deux articles qui sont extr\u00eamement int\u00e9ressants, non seulement en raison de leur contenu, mais aussi en raison de la plate-forme de publication consid\u00e9rant le contenu, \u00e0 savoir Reuters. Le contenu et l'\u00e9diteur font ensemble ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/07\/16\/beyond-the-looking-glass-the-red-team-analysis-weekly-16-july-2020\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Au-del\u00e0 du \"Looking-Glass\" - The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 16 juillet 2020 \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1078,3249],"tags":[2883,1362],"class_list":["post-27388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-new-paradigm","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-covid-19","tag-paradigm-shift","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Beyond &quot;the Looking-Glass&quot;?- The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 16 July 2020<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This is the 16 July 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks, with strong signals of deep changes at work, globally.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/07\/16\/au-dela-du-miroir-lanalyse-de-lequipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-16-juillet-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beyond &quot;the Looking-Glass&quot;?- The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 16 July 2020\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is the 16 July 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks, with strong signals of deep changes at work, globally.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/07\/16\/au-dela-du-miroir-lanalyse-de-lequipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-16-juillet-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-07-16T16:47:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:10:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/2019_07_04_SPECULOOS_Horizon_Pano_24mm_Nice_Cut-CC.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1582\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/07\\\/16\\\/beyond-the-looking-glass-the-red-team-analysis-weekly-16-july-2020\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/07\\\/16\\\/beyond-the-looking-glass-the-red-team-analysis-weekly-16-july-2020\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Beyond &#8220;the Looking-Glass&#8221;?- The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly &#8211; 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Early Warning \uff65 Political &amp; Geopolitical Risk \u00b7 Scenarios\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Red-Team-Analysis\\\/341280995886057\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/helenelavoix\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/5403964\\\/admin\\\/dashboard\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\",\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"description\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. 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