{"id":28221,"date":"2020-11-30T20:18:36","date_gmt":"2020-11-30T19:18:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=28221"},"modified":"2021-10-04T17:31:59","modified_gmt":"2021-10-04T15:31:59","slug":"covid-19-seconde-vague-chine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/11\/30\/covid-19-second-wave-coming-to-china\/","title":{"rendered":"La deuxi\u00e8me vague de COVID-19 arrive-t-elle en Chine ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La deuxi\u00e8me vague de la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19 se propage \u00e0 travers le monde. Elle a d'abord atteint les \u00c9tats-Unis, l'Europe, l'Afrique du Nord et le Moyen-Orient. \u00c0 la mi-novembre 2020, elle a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00eatre visible en Extr\u00eame Orient (voir, par exemple, le Global Tracker Covid-19 de Reuters : <a href=\"https:\/\/graphics.reuters.com\/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Monde<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/graphics.reuters.com\/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps\/regions\/asia-and-the-middle-east\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Asie et Moyen-Orient<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28280\" width=\"349\" height=\"167\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov.jpg 1394w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov-300x144.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov-768x368.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov-16x8.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov-1320x633.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov-250x120.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Japan-30-nov-1038x497.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 349px) 100vw, 349px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><a href=\"https:\/\/graphics.reuters.com\/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps\/countries-and-territories\/japan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Japon<\/a> (Reuters COVID-19 Tracker)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28281\" width=\"343\" height=\"168\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov.jpg 1370w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov-300x147.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov-768x376.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov-16x8.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov-1320x646.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov-250x122.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/South-Korea-30-Nov-1038x508.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 343px) 100vw, 343px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><a href=\"https:\/\/graphics.reuters.com\/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps\/countries-and-territories\/south-korea\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Cor\u00e9e du Sud<\/a> (Reuters COVID-19 Tracker)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fin novembre 2020, la Cor\u00e9e du Sud et le Japon sont confront\u00e9s \u00e0 un nombre croissant de cas. Pourtant, l'ampleur de la pouss\u00e9e \u00e9pid\u00e9mique \u00e0 laquelle ils doivent faire face n'est, pour l'instant, absolument pas comparable \u00e0 ce qui se passe en Europe ou aux \u00c9tats-Unis. <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le m\u00eame temps, en ce qui concerne la Chine, les medias ont tendance \u00e0 se concentrer sur l'\u00e9conomie et la reprise \u00e9conomique (par exemple, James Hyerczyk, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/asia-pacific-shares-down-across-the-board-china-reports-upbeat-factory-activity-2020-11-30\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Asia-Pacific Shares Down Across the Board; China Reports Upbeat Factory Activity<\/a>\u201c, <em>Nasdaq<\/em>, 30 novembre 2020). La pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19 semble presque oubli\u00e9e, m\u00eame si c'est en Chine que la pand\u00e9mie s'est d\u00e9clar\u00e9e initialement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La situation en Chine est un facteur cl\u00e9 de l'optimisme de nombreux acteurs quant \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19, en sus, bien entendu, des perceptions tr\u00e8s positives concernant les vaccins \u00e0 venir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Que se passe-t-il donc r\u00e9ellement en Chine en ce qui concerne la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19 ? La Chine est-elle vraiment devenue un pays beaucoup plus s\u00fbr que les autres gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la fa\u00e7on dont elle g\u00e8re d\u00e9sormais la pand\u00e9mie ? Peut-on estimer ce que sera la situation sanitaire en Chine dans un avenir proche ? Quels sont les impacts probables de la fa\u00e7on dont la Chine g\u00e9rera, bien ou mal, une \u00e9ventuelle seconde vague ? Est-ce vraiment important compte tenu des vaccins \u00e0 venir ? Comment pouvons-nous penser le monde compte-tenu de la fa\u00e7on dont la Chine g\u00e8re la pand\u00e9mie et des vaccins \u00e0 venir ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cet article aborde la premi\u00e8re de ces questions et examine la situation en Chine en termes de contagion et de clusters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La Chine, un contr\u00f4le \u00e9tonnant de la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19 <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis que la COVID-19 se d\u00e9clara en Chine en d\u00e9cembre 2019 et janvier 2020, d\u00e9clenchant la pand\u00e9mie mondiale, et que les mesures chinoises drastiques mises en \u0153uvre prirent fin le 8 avril 2020 (voir par exemple <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2020\/04\/29\/asia\/wuhan-coronavirus-lockdown-analysis-intl-hnk\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CNN<\/a>), la Chine a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9tonnamment presque exempte de COVID-19. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La Chine a enregistr\u00e9 4.750 d\u00e9c\u00e8s du fait de la COVID-19 jusqu'au 28 novembre 2020. Le 23 puis le 25 septembre, la Chine signala le d\u00e9c\u00e8s d'une personne \u00e0 chaque fois, puis d'une autre le 4 novembre, d'une autre le 5, d'une autre le 10 novembre et encore d'une autre (\u00e0 Hong Kong) le 28 novembre (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/ncov.dxy.cn\/ncovh5\/view\/pneumonia\" target=\"_blank\">r\u00e9seau dxy<\/a>, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.1point3acres.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">1point3acres<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elle a enregistr\u00e9 93 113 cas symptomatiques de COVID-19 depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie jusqu'au 26 novembre 2020 et 93 465 jusqu'au 30 novembre 2020 (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/ncov.dxy.cn\/ncovh5\/view\/pneumonia\" target=\"_blank\">r\u00e9seau dxy<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce chiffre est \u00e0 comparer aux 62,57 millions de cas dans le monde au 30 novembre 2020, et notamment aux 18,02 millions de cas pour l'Europe, et aux 13,38 millions de cas pour les \u00c9tats-Unis (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ECDC<\/a>). En d'autres termes <strong>en un jour, <\/strong>entre les 29 et 30 novembre<strong>, il <\/strong>y a eu<strong> deux fois plus de cas en Europe <\/strong>que<strong> depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie en Chine<\/strong>. Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, pour le m\u00eame jour, il y a eu 1,5 fois plus de cas que depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie en Chine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, la Chine ne repr\u00e9sente qu'une part n\u00e9gligeable des cas, m\u00eame si la Chine a constitu\u00e9 le premier foyer de la pand\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Apprendre en contr\u00f4lant les clusters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce n'est pas que la Chine soit exempte de COVID-19 par miracle. Elle obtient ces r\u00e9sultats incroyables gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un contr\u00f4le extr\u00eamement rigoureux et efficace de la pand\u00e9mie. En effet, au cours des derniers mois, lorsqu'apparurent des contaminations qui auraient pu se transformer en d'\u00e9ventuels foyers, la Chine a pris des mesures radicales et efficaces qui lui permirent de contr\u00f4ler rapidement les nouvelles amorces de foyers \u00e9pid\u00e9miques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Par exemple, au cours de l'\u00e9t\u00e9, le 9 juin, un cluster commen\u00e7a \u00e0 P\u00e9kin, s'\u00e9tendit \u00e0 la province voisine de Hebei et inclut plus de 330 cas symptomatiques (OMS <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news\/item\/13-06-2020-a-cluster-of-covid-19-in-beijing-people-s-republic-of-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A cluster of COVID-19 in Beijing, People\u2019s Republic of China<\/a>, 13 juin 2020 ; <em>Bloomberg,<\/em>, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-11-02\/xinjiang-covid-outbreak-is-china-s-biggest-since-summer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Xinjiang Covid Outbreak Is China\u2019s Biggest Since Summer<\/a>\", 2 novembre 2020 ; <em>Bloomberg News<\/em>, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/nationalpost.com\/news\/world\/covid-19-reemerges-near-beijing-officials-implement-restrictions-to-stem-cluster\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China locks down county of 400,000 as COVID-19 cluster reemerges near Beijing<\/a>\", 29 juin 2020). L'origine de la contagion fut tr\u00e8s probablement la contamination d'un vendeur de saumon \u00e0 Xinfadi, le plus grand march\u00e9 de gros de P\u00e9kin, car le virus fut d\u00e9tect\u00e9 sur sa planche \u00e0 d\u00e9couper (Ibid,). Les autorit\u00e9s r\u00e9ussirent \u00e0 contr\u00f4ler le cluster \u00e0 P\u00e9kin le 19 juin, et les cas avaient disparu au d\u00e9but du mois de juillet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Puis, \u00e0 Dalian, le 22 juillet, un nouveau cluster vit le jour (Xinhua, \"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bjreview.com\/Nation\/202011\/t20201127_800228265.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Containing sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks the Chinese way<\/a>\u201c, <em>Beijing Review<\/em>, 27 novembre 2020). Son origine est la contamination d'un \"travailleur d'une entreprise locale de transformation de produits de la mer\" (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2020-08\/29\/c_139327790.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Xinhua, 29 ao\u00fbt 2020<\/a>). Le foyer de Dalian comprenait 92 cas de COVID-19 transmis localement et 26 cas asymptomatiques. Il fut compl\u00e8tement \u00e9limin\u00e9 le 29 ao\u00fbt (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2020-08\/29\/c_139327790.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ibid,<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 Qingdao, dans la province de Shandong, le 11 octobre, trois nouveaux cas de COVID-19 furent d\u00e9tect\u00e9s (Xie Chuanjiao, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadaily.com.cn\/a\/202010\/19\/WS5f8d597da31024ad0ba7f9fa.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Source of Qingdao outbreak identified<\/a>\", China Daily, 19 octobre 2020 ; Yuhan Xing, Gary W.K. Wong et al, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc2032361\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Rapid Response to an Outbreak in Qingdao, China<\/a>, <em>The New England Journal of Medicine<\/em>, 18 novembre 2020). Le cluster ne compterait que 13 cas symptomatiques et fut consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme contr\u00f4l\u00e9 le 16 octobre, aucun nouveau cas n'\u00e9tant apparu (Ibid.). L'origine de ce foyer est li\u00e9e \u00e0 deux travailleurs portuaires qui avaient d\u00e9charg\u00e9 des marchandises import\u00e9es (Xie Chuanjiao, ibid) et qui \u00e9taient en contact avec d'autres travailleurs maritimes (Yuhan Xing, Gary W.K. Wong et al.). Tous deux avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 test\u00e9s positifs le 24 septembre 2020 (Ibid.). Ensuite, le virus se propage\u00e2t par l'interm\u00e9diaire de l'h\u00f4pital (Ibid.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le 24 octobre 2020, un nouveau cluster apparut au Xinjiang, avec un cas asymptomatique d\u00e9tect\u00e9. Le 2 novembre, la r\u00e9gion autonome recensait 57 cas l\u00e9gers de COVID-19 et 233 cas asymptomatiques (<em>Bloomberg,<\/em>, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-11-02\/xinjiang-covid-outbreak-is-china-s-biggest-since-summer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Xinjiang Covid Outbreak Is China\u2019s Biggest Since Summer<\/a>\", 2 novembre 2020). Des millions de personnes furent test\u00e9es dans la ville de Kashgar et alentours, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 les cas avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9tect\u00e9s, et tous ceux qui \u00e9taient positifs furent isol\u00e9s (Ibid., BBC News, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-china-54687533\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Covid-19: China tests entire city of Kashgar in Xinjiang<\/a>\", 26 octobre 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, donc, des clusters ont vu le jour mais, \u00e0 chaque fois, ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9touff\u00e9s avec succ\u00e8s. Quelle est la situation actuelle ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Des contaminations croissantes et un nombre croissant de clusters <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L'augmentation des contaminations quotidiennes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis le 17 novembre, si l'on examine la situation nationale en Chine, le nombre de cas symptomatiques quotidiens nouvellement diagnostiqu\u00e9s a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement augment\u00e9, comme le montrent les chiffres quotidiens ci-dessous, affich\u00e9s sur un graphique bimensuel. Notez que le dernier graphique change d'\u00e9chelle et que l'axe des ordonn\u00e9es passe maintenant \u00e0 150 cas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery alignwide columns-3 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\"><ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\"><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-26-nov-2020-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"876\" height=\"464\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-26-nov-2020-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"28274\" data-full-url=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-26-nov-2020-1.jpg\" data-link=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?attachment_id=28274\" class=\"wp-image-28274\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-26-nov-2020-1.jpg 876w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-26-nov-2020-1-300x159.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-26-nov-2020-1-768x407.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-26-nov-2020-1-16x8.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-26-nov-2020-1-250x132.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 876px) 100vw, 876px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-27-nov-2020-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"880\" height=\"468\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-27-nov-2020-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"28275\" data-full-url=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-27-nov-2020-1.jpg\" data-link=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?attachment_id=28275\" class=\"wp-image-28275\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-27-nov-2020-1.jpg 880w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-27-nov-2020-1-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-27-nov-2020-1-768x408.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-27-nov-2020-1-16x9.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-27-nov-2020-1-250x133.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 880px) 100vw, 880px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-29-nov-2020-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"878\" height=\"466\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-29-nov-2020-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"28276\" data-full-url=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-29-nov-2020-1.jpg\" data-link=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?attachment_id=28276\" class=\"wp-image-28276\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-29-nov-2020-1.jpg 878w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-29-nov-2020-1-300x159.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-29-nov-2020-1-768x408.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-29-nov-2020-1-16x8.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Daily-new-infections-China-29-nov-2020-1-250x133.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 878px) 100vw, 878px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/li><\/ul><figcaption class=\"blocks-gallery-caption\">Nouvelles infections symptomatiques quotidiennes en Chine sur une quinzaine de jours : fin le 26 novembre 2020, le 27 novembre 2020, le 29 novembre 2020 - ncov.dxy.cn<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces augmentations semblent toutefois concerner principalement Hong Kong et Ta\u00efwan, puisque les rapports quotidiens de la Commission nationale chinoise de la sant\u00e9 et du r\u00e9seau chinois de m\u00e9decins - dxy.cn - les incluent, aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de Macao, dans leurs statistiques.*<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En cons\u00e9quence, le nombre actuel de cas infectieux en cours a recommenc\u00e9 \u00e0 augmenter. N\u00e9anmoins, par rapport \u00e0 l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de janvier 2020, la courbe semble presque plate. Ce serait encore plus vrai si l'on comparait ces chiffres avec ceux d'autres pays et continents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery alignwide columns-2 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-2 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\"><ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\"><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"870\" height=\"472\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-26-nov-2020.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"28223\" data-full-url=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-26-nov-2020.jpg\" data-link=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?attachment_id=28223\" class=\"wp-image-28223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-26-nov-2020.jpg 870w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-26-nov-2020-300x163.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-26-nov-2020-768x417.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-26-nov-2020-16x9.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-26-nov-2020-250x136.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 870px) 100vw, 870px\" \/><\/figure><\/li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"880\" height=\"470\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-29-nov-2020.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"28242\" data-full-url=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-29-nov-2020.jpg\" data-link=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?attachment_id=28242\" class=\"wp-image-28242\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-29-nov-2020.jpg 880w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-29-nov-2020-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-29-nov-2020-768x410.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-29-nov-2020-16x9.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Ongoing-Infectious-cases-China-29-nov-2020-250x134.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 880px) 100vw, 880px\" \/><\/figure><\/li><\/ul><figcaption class=\"blocks-gallery-caption\">Cas infectieux en cours en Chine - ncov.dxy.cn<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En Chine, le nombre de patients symptomatiques confirm\u00e9s souffrant de la COVID-19 a atteint 905 cas le 26 novembre 2020, 980 le 27 novembre, 1145 le 29 novembre 2020 et 1245 cas le 30 novembre selon le <a href=\"https:\/\/ncov.dxy.cn\/ncovh5\/view\/pneumonia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">les statistiques de dxy.cn<\/a>. Parmi ces cas, les cas asymptomatiques d\u00e9tect\u00e9s sont pass\u00e9s de 348 le 23 novembre \u00e0 279 le 28 novembre (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nhc.gov.cn\/xcs\/yqtb\/list_gzbd.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Commission nationale de la sant\u00e9<\/a>). Ainsi, le nombre de cas asymptomatiques diminue l\u00e9g\u00e8rement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour r\u00e9sumer, une augmentation des cas symptomatiques est ainsi constat\u00e9e, principalement \u00e0 Hong Kong et, dans une moindre mesure, \u00e0 Ta\u00efwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Examinons maintenant les clusters et la r\u00e9partition g\u00e9ographique sur le territoire chinois<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un nombre croissant de clusters<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Au-del\u00e0 des cas de COVID-19 que nous pourrons qualifier de \"rampants\", consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme identifi\u00e9s et mis en quarantaine, le 27 novembre 2020, les m\u00e9dias chinois ont soulign\u00e9 l'existence de trois foyers principaux : \u00e0 Tianjin - 15 cas symptomatiques le 27 novembre 2020, \u00e0 Shanghai - 62 cas symptomatiques le 27 novembre 2020, et en Mongolie int\u00e9rieure - 23 cas symptomatiques le 27 novembre 2020, dans la ville frontali\u00e8re de Manzhouli (Xinhua, \"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bjreview.com\/Nation\/202011\/t20201127_800228265.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Containing sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks the Chinese way<\/a>\u201c ; \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.china.org.cn\/china\/2020-11\/27\/content_76955286.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Manzhouli coronavirus cases likely imported<\/a>\u201c ; <em>China Daily<\/em>, 27 novembre 2020). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 Manzhouli, l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie a d\u00e9but\u00e9 le 21 novembre 2020. Le 27 novembre, on comptait 11 cas, 1 cas asymptomatique et un cas suspect (\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.china.org.cn\/china\/2020-11\/27\/content_76955286.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Manzhouli coronavirus cases likely imported<\/a>\u201c). Ce sont des infections import\u00e9es qui ont d\u00e9clench\u00e9 le cluster (Ibid.). Selon <a href=\"https:\/\/ncov.dxy.cn\/ncovh5\/view\/pneumonia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">dxy.cn<\/a>, le foyer infectieux est pass\u00e9 de 23 cas symptomatiques le 27 novembre 2020 \u00e0 18 cas symptomatiques, dont 4 \u00e9taient import\u00e9s, le 29 novembre. Cela nous laisse supposer que les autorit\u00e9s contr\u00f4lent le cluster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Par rapport aux trois clusters dont les m\u00e9dias ont fait \u00e9tat, la carte \u00e9pid\u00e9mique de dxy.cn pour le 27 novembre ci-dessous montre que sept provinces et villes (plus Taiwan et Hong Kong) connaissent un nombre plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de cas de COVID-19. Ces chiffres pourraient indiquer de futurs clusters, en sus des trois identifi\u00e9s. En effet, compte tenu de la nature m\u00eame d'une pand\u00e9mie, un seul cas repr\u00e9sente un danger de contamination. C'est encore plus vrai avec la COVID-19 compte-tenu des cas asymptomatiques et de la contagion pr\u00e9-symptomatique (voir Helene Lavoix, <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/06\/03\/dynamique-contagion-et-covid-19-seconde-vague\/\">Dynamiques de contagion et seconde vague de COVID-19<\/a>, <em>The Red Team Analysis Society<\/em>, 3 juin 2020). D'o\u00f9 l'extr\u00eame prudence et le soin dont font preuve les autorit\u00e9s chinoises. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La carte \u00e9pid\u00e9mique suivante, pour le 28 novembre, montre qu'une province (Anhui - la fl\u00e8che bleue) est d\u00e9sormais exempte de cas de COVID-19 d\u00e9tect\u00e9s. Entre-temps, une nouvelle province (Zhejiang) a rejoint ses s\u0153urs avec un nombre plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de cas. Le lendemain, le 29 novembre, une autre province a \u00e9t\u00e9 ajout\u00e9e (Gansu), mais avec seulement un seul cas (la fl\u00e8che rouge). Il faut noter ici que le nombre de cas reste tr\u00e8s faible, et va de 10 cas au Zhejiang, 12 \u00e0 Tianjin, jusqu'\u00e0 51 (mais en diminution) \u00e0 Shanghai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il semble donc y avoir une augmentation du nombre de clusters possibles, par rapport aux six mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. Pourtant, \u00e0 chaque fois, un contr\u00f4le rapide conduit \u00e0 une diminution du nombre de cas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery alignwide columns-3 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\"><ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\"><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-Map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-27-Nov-2020.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"962\" height=\"666\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-Map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-27-Nov-2020.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"28257\" class=\"wp-image-28257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-Map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-27-Nov-2020.jpg 962w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-Map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-27-Nov-2020-300x208.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-Map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-27-Nov-2020-768x532.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-Map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-27-Nov-2020-16x12.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-Map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-27-Nov-2020-250x173.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 962px) 100vw, 962px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-28-Nov-2020-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"966\" height=\"662\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-28-Nov-2020-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"28269\" data-full-url=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-28-Nov-2020-2.jpg\" data-link=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?attachment_id=28269\" class=\"wp-image-28269\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-28-Nov-2020-2.jpg 966w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-28-Nov-2020-2-300x206.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-28-Nov-2020-2-768x526.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-28-Nov-2020-2-16x12.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-28-Nov-2020-2-250x171.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 966px) 100vw, 966px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-29-nov-2020-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"962\" height=\"680\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-29-nov-2020-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"28268\" data-full-url=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-29-nov-2020-2.jpg\" data-link=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?attachment_id=28268\" class=\"wp-image-28268\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-29-nov-2020-2.jpg 962w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-29-nov-2020-2-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-29-nov-2020-2-768x543.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-29-nov-2020-2-16x12.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Epidemic-map-confirmed-symptomatic-cases-China-29-nov-2020-2-250x177.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 962px) 100vw, 962px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/li><\/ul><figcaption class=\"blocks-gallery-caption\">Cartes des \u00e9pid\u00e9mies en Chine - Cas symptomatiques confirm\u00e9s en cours les 27 novembre 2020, 28 novembre 2020 et 29 novembre 2020 - Acc\u00e9dez \u00e0 la derni\u00e8re carte des \u00e9pid\u00e9mies mise \u00e0 jour sur ncov.dxy.cn<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que les provinces qui comptent le plus grand nombre de cas positifs au COVID-19 semblent entourer la Chine. Cela montre une fois de plus l'importance capitale des \u00e9changes dans la propagation de la pand\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, il semble que la Chine soit effectivement confront\u00e9e \u00e0 une augmentation du nombre de cas, comme ailleurs. Pourtant, les mesures prises par la Chine semblent \u00e9galement, jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, faire la preuve de l'efficacit\u00e9 et m\u00eame de la ma\u00eetrise chinoise dans la lutte contre la pand\u00e9mie. Dans le prochain article, nous examinerons plus en d\u00e9tail ces mesures pour \u00e9valuer l'ampleur et l'intensit\u00e9 possibles de la deuxi\u00e8me vague en Chine. Va-t-elle rester quasiment plate comme c'est le cas actuellement ? Ou, au contraire, faut-il s'attendre \u00e0 des surprises ? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Nous devons \u00e9galement noter un \u00e9cart entre les statistiques nationales de la Commission nationale chinoise de la sant\u00e9 et les statistiques du r\u00e9seau dxy.cn. Ce dernier travaille avec les statistiques provinciales. Les chiffres pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s dans cet article reposent principalement sur le r\u00e9seau dxy.cn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-default\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Image en vedette : Image par&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/fr\/users\/4311868-4311868\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=2089959\">Roger Mosley<\/a>&nbsp;de&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/fr\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=2089959\">Pixabay<\/a>&nbsp;- Domaine public<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-default\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La deuxi\u00e8me vague de la pand\u00e9mie de COVID-19 balaie le monde. Elle a d'abord atteint les \u00c9tats-Unis, l'Europe, l'Afrique du Nord et le Moyen-Orient. \u00c0 la mi-novembre 2020, elle a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00eatre visible en Asie de l'Est (par exemple, Reuters Covid-19 Global Tracker : World and Asia and the Middle East). \u00c0 la fin du mois de novembre 2020, la Cor\u00e9e du Sud et ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/11\/30\/covid-19-second-wave-coming-to-china\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" La deuxi\u00e8me vague du COVID-19 arrive-t-elle en Chine ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28286,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2497,2905],"tags":[61,2883,1789,2424],"class_list":["post-28221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-covid19-analysis","tag-china","tag-covid-19","tag-featured","tag-international-order","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the COVID-19 Second Wave coming to China? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article assesses if China faces the start of a second wave of COVID-19. It looks at the situation in terms of contagion and clusters.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/11\/30\/covid-19-seconde-vague-chine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the COVID-19 Second Wave coming to China? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This article assesses if China faces the start of a second wave of COVID-19. 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