{"id":28482,"date":"2021-01-27T18:49:29","date_gmt":"2021-01-27T17:49:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=28482"},"modified":"2021-10-04T17:31:40","modified_gmt":"2021-10-04T15:31:40","slug":"covid-19-vaccinations-espoir-ou-mirage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/01\/27\/covid-19-vaccinations-hope-or-mirage\/","title":{"rendered":"La vaccination contre le COVID-19, espoir ou mirage ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli<\/a>
Photo: torstensimon<\/a>)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world has started a race for immunisation against the COVID-19. Vaccines are now perceived as the universal panacea, the miracle that will save us all from the pandemic. We shall, finally, be able to find back our old life. Are we right to hope? Or are we likely to discover it was a mirage? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our objective here is to estimate roughly when, considering current vaccination rates, the countries most advanced in terms of immunisation campaigns could reach herd immunity. In other words, when will our hopes become reality? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, we highlight that our hopes are grounded in reality because of the success of past vaccination campaigns. However, our perception of the timeframe necessary for vaccination success is likely distorted. Second, we highlight six major uncertainties we still face regarding the vaccination against the COVID-19. We use here a “red team” approach, i.e. we ask all questions, even or rather especially disruptive ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Number of months needed to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19 – using daily vaccinations – 7 days rolling average 25\/26 January 2021 – See below for a larger image – Data from: “Our world in data<\/a>“<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Finally, we estimate how long selected countries, from the U.S. to Israel through Russia, China or the U.K., Germany and France, need to reach herd immunity at current daily vaccination rates. Results are very contrasted, and for many countries, the time to herd immunity must be counted in years rather than in months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This estimate tells us if it is realistic to hope or, on the contrary, if we are facing a mirage. Different strategies and planning will need to be designed accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A hope grounded in reality<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vaccination successes<\/h3>\n\n\n