{"id":31013,"date":"2021-11-02T15:53:42","date_gmt":"2021-11-02T14:53:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=31013"},"modified":"2021-11-02T16:19:46","modified_gmt":"2021-11-02T15:19:46","slug":"que-sont-les-guerres-climatiques","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/02\/what-are-climate-wars\/","title":{"rendered":"Qu'est-ce que les guerres climatiques ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:85%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alors que le changement climatique s'intensifie, un enjeu majeur est de comprendre comment la g\u00e9ophysique en \u00e9volution rapide et la guerre sont imbriqu\u00e9es. Depuis 2013, au Red Team Analysis Society, nous \u00e9tudions la fa\u00e7on dont le changement climatique, l'arm\u00e9e et la g\u00e9opolitique interagissent (<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/categorie\/questions-degalite-entre-hommes-et-femmes-2\/climate-change-security\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S\u00e9curit\u00e9 face au changement climatique<\/a>, <em>The Red Team Analysis Society<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis lors, les choses ont radicalement chang\u00e9. La relation complexe entre le changement climatique \u00e9volue d\u00e9sormais de plus en plus rapidement. Pour comprendre cette relation, nous devons d'abord comprendre ce que sont ou seront les \"guerres climatiques\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les \"guerres climatiques\" sont des guerres<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">C'est la politique, idiot !<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Partout dans le monde, on constate une implication croissante des militaires en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la multiplication des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames. Cela peut appara\u00eetre comme un lien \u00e9vident entre le climat et la guerre. Cependant, nous devons garder \u00e0 l'esprit que, comme Clausewitz le d\u00e9finit, \"la guerre n'est qu'une simple continuation de la politique par d'autres moyens\" (Carl von Clausewitz, <a href=\"http:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/titles\/302.html\">Sur la guerre<\/a>, chap. I, 24, 1832)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En d'autres termes, les autorit\u00e9s politiques d\u00e9cident de faire la guerre, ou pas. La politique est le facteur d\u00e9cisif.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:50%\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">La traduction fran\u00e7aise est r\u00e9alis\u00e9e par intelligence artificielle \/ <meta charset=\"utf-8\">The French translation is done by artificial intelligence <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:228px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list aligncenter wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">Impacts de la menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : l'accord commercial entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l'UE, le Parlement europ\u00e9en et l'avenir de l'Europe<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/01\/28\/signal-chronicles-iran-trump-china\/\">Signal - Mini-Chroniques (11) : L'Iran, Trump et la Chine<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/01\/21\/us-threat-greenland-when-watch\/\">La menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : Quand aurions-nous d\u00fb commencer \u00e0 la surveiller ?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/\">Pourquoi tire-t-on encore sur le messager - et ce que vous pouvez faire pour y rem\u00e9dier - Vid\u00e9o<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2025\/11\/21\/real-war-us-china-video\/\">La v\u00e9ritable guerre : les \u00c9tats-Unis contre la Chine - Vid\u00e9o<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Zone de danger<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De plus, l'\u00e9tat du climat peut avoir des cons\u00e9quences sur les conditions de vie des groupes humains et imposer un stress important. Par exemple, le changement climatique met en danger l'agriculture et le cycle de l'eau des petites, grandes et tr\u00e8s grandes populations et soci\u00e9t\u00e9s (Jean-Michel Valantin, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/06\/03\/inondations-midwest-guerre-commerciale-pandemie-grippe-porcine-grande-tempete-agricole-alimentaire\/\">Inondations dans le Midwest, guerre commerciale et pand\u00e9mie de grippe porcine : la super temp\u00eate agricole et alimentaire est l\u00e0.<\/a>\u201d, <em>The Red Team Analysis Society<\/em>3 juin 2019). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/stI1NrLXqgg?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce genre de situation peut d\u00e9clencher une comp\u00e9tition pour les ressources de base, comme la nourriture et l'eau (Richard S. Cottrell, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41893-018-0210-1?utm_source=Climate+News+Network&amp;utm_campaign=0036b2ceea-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_02_01_09_11&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_1198ea8936-0036b2ceea-38801289\">Chocs de la production alimentaire \u00e0 travers la terre et la mer\".<\/a>,&nbsp;<em>Durabilit\u00e9 de la nature<\/em>, 28 janvier 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il se trouve qu'au niveau mondial, plusieurs ann\u00e9es de mauvaises r\u00e9coltes c\u00e9r\u00e9ali\u00e8res ont eu lieu entre 2006 et 2011. Ces mauvaises r\u00e9coltes sont le r\u00e9sultat d'une s\u00e9rie d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements climatiques extr\u00eames dans les r\u00e9gions les plus importantes pour la culture des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il y a eu une vague de chaleur dans le sud de la Chine, r\u00e9gion de culture du riz, en 2006. En 2008, 2009 et 2010, nous avons eu des inondations g\u00e9antes dans le Midwest am\u00e9ricain, des vagues de chaleur au Canada, en Australie, en Ukraine et en Russie. Ensuite, les rendements agricoles relativement faibles ont d\u00e9clench\u00e9 la sp\u00e9culation (Werrell et Femia,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.americanprogress.org\/issues\/security\/report\/2013\/02\/28\/54579\/the-arab-spring-and-climate-change\/\">Le printemps arabe et le changement climatique<\/a>, 2013).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L'inflation cons\u00e9cutive des prix a durement touch\u00e9 les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s arabes du Maroc \u00e0 la Syrie (Ibid.). En effet, le pain est la denr\u00e9e de base pour 70% de la population de ces pays (Ibid.). Ainsi, <meta charset=\"utf-8\">Des tensions ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9clench\u00e9es dans des pays d\u00e9j\u00e0 sursollicit\u00e9s. Ainsi, les premi\u00e8res manifestations pour contester Ben Ali en Tunisie ont \u00e9t\u00e9 des manifestations d\u00e9non\u00e7ant le prix insupportable du pain (Ibid.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cFL-I4fYKI4?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces manifestations pour le pain ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les \u00e9v\u00e9nements d\u00e9clencheurs des r\u00e9actions sociales, politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques massives appel\u00e9es \"Printemps arabe\". Ce processus massif enchev\u00eatre les bouleversements politiques, les guerres civiles et internationales et s'est prolong\u00e9 avec la guerre de Syrie (Werrell et Femia, ibid).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Polarisation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">De l'Himalaya avec (pas tellement) d'amour<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous devons garder \u00e0 l'esprit qu'il existe plusieurs familles de guerre, et diff\u00e9rents niveaux d'intensit\u00e9 et d'\u00e9chelle. Il ne faut pas confondre un \u00e9tat de tension avec un \u00e9tat de guerre. Cependant, ce dernier peut \u00e9merger du premier. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Par exemple, le 1er juin 2020, des patrouilles indiennes et chinoises se sont affront\u00e9es lors d'une escarmouche dans la r\u00e9gion du Ladakh. Vingt soldats indiens sont morts et 43 Chinois ont \u00e9t\u00e9 bless\u00e9s (Aijaz Hussain, \"<a href=\"\/fr\/20 troops killed in Himalayas clash with China\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Inde : 20 soldats tu\u00e9s dans un affrontement avec la Chine dans l'Himalaya<\/a>\u201d, <em>Actualit\u00e9s AP<\/em>Le 16 juin 2020). Depuis cet incident d'une rare violence, les tensions militaires et politiques se sont exacerb\u00e9es entre les deux g\u00e9ants asiatiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/hYi2TBe5k_o?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cet incident semble avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9clench\u00e9 par les tensions croissantes entre la construction de routes, de barrages et de fortifications par la Chine et l'Inde le long de la fronti\u00e8re. Depuis 2020, la Chine et l'Inde ne cessent de construire des infrastructures militaires tout en amassant des milliers de soldats. Et ainsi, aggraver le risque d'escalade militaire et politique (Baani Grewal et Nathan Ruser, \" <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/a-3d-deep-dive-into-the-india-china-border-dispute\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Une plong\u00e9e en 3D dans le conflit frontalier entre l'Inde et la Chine<\/a>\", ASPI- <em>Le strat\u00e8ge, <\/em>21 octobre 2021) .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il faut noter que six mois apr\u00e8s cette escarmouche militaire, P\u00e9kin a annonc\u00e9 que PowerChina allait construire un barrage sur la rivi\u00e8re Yarlung Tsangpo au Tibet. Ceci est susceptible de changer le contexte politique de ces tensions en un conflit international explicite sur l'eau. En effet, lorsqu'il quitte le Tibet, ce fleuve traverse l'Inde. L\u00e0, il devient le Brahmapoutre en Inde et le Jamuna au Bangladesh (Jagannath P. Panda, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/jamestown.org\/program\/beijing-boosts-its-position-as-a-himalayan-hegemon-through-hydropower\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">P\u00e9kin renforce sa position d'\"h\u00e9g\u00e9mon de l'Himalaya\" gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'hydro\u00e9lectricit\u00e9<\/a>\u201d, <em>La Fondation JamesTown<\/em>, 7 juin 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Des barrages pour le climat, des barrages pour la g\u00e9opolitique<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2024\/02\/20\/apocalypse-in-the-red-sea-anthropocene-wars-9\/\">Apocalypse dans la mer Rouge - Guerres de l'Anthropoc\u00e8ne (9)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/11\/22\/the-war-in-gaza-and-chinas-pivot-to-the-middle-east\/\">La guerre \u00e0 Gaza et le pivot de la Chine vers le Moyen-Orient<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/06\/12\/climate-emergency-ai-and-the-necessary-rise-of-geoengineering\/\">Urgence climatique, IA et mont\u00e9e (n\u00e9cessaire ?) de la g\u00e9oing\u00e9nierie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/05\/09\/war-in-ukraine-2023-super-el-nino-global-disruptions-anthropocene-wars-8\/\">La guerre en Ukraine, le super El Ni\u00f1o de 2023 et les perturbations mondiales - Guerres de l'Anthropoc\u00e8ne (8)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/12\/12\/war-ukraine-europe-weaponization-winter-anthropocene-wars-7\/\">La guerre en Ukraine, l'Europe et l'armement de l'hiver - Guerres de l'Anthropoc\u00e8ne (7)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/10\/03\/an-excluded-russia-not-for-asia-anthropocene-wars-6\/\">Une Russie exclue ? Pas pour l'Asie - Les guerres de l'anthropoc\u00e8ne (6)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/07\/11\/war-ukraine-warming-arctic-anthropocene-wars-5\/\">Guerre en Ukraine dans l'Arctique en r\u00e9chauffement - Guerres de l'Anthropoc\u00e8ne (5)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour la Chine, d'une part, ce nouveau barrage est n\u00e9cessaire pour obtenir suffisamment d'eau pour le projet hydraulique Sud-Nord. Mao a pens\u00e9 \u00e0 ce projet pour la premi\u00e8re fois en 1950. Le nouveau barrage a finalement \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9 en 2014. Il vise \u00e0 transf\u00e9rer l'eau de la r\u00e9gion riche en eau du sud afin de soutenir le d\u00e9veloppement du nord.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D'autre part, le barrage de 60 gigawatts soutiendra la politique chinoise d'att\u00e9nuation du changement climatique. Sa production d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 renouvelable soutiendra le d\u00e9veloppement du mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique chinois en diminuant la consommation nationale de charbon (Shan Jie et Li Xiaoyi, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/1208405.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">La Chine va construire un projet hydro\u00e9lectrique historique sur le fleuve Yarlung Tsangpo au Tibet<\/a>\u201d, <em>Global Times<\/em>, 2020\/11\/29).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/gEYuRFJ12iw?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, ces nouvelles politiques de l'eau et ces tensions militaires s'inscrivent dans des paysages g\u00e9opolitiques et strat\u00e9giques d\u00e9j\u00e0 surcharg\u00e9s. Il se trouve que la Chine et le Pakistan, l'archi-adversaire de l'Inde, ont sign\u00e9 un protocole d'accord pour la construction de deux barrages g\u00e9ants sur l'Indus, dont l'un dans la r\u00e9gion de Gilgit-Batilstan, dans l'Himalaya, revendiqu\u00e9e \u00e0 la fois par l'Inde et le Pakistan et proche de la Chine (Drazen Jorgic, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-china-silkroad-pakistan-dam\/pakistan-eyes-2018-start-for-china-funded-mega-dam-opposed-by-india-idUSKBN1941P9\">Le Pakistan envisage le d\u00e9marrage en 2018 d'un m\u00e9ga barrage financ\u00e9 par la Chine, contr\u00e9 par l'Inde<\/a>\u201d,&nbsp;<em>Reuters<\/em>, 13 juin 2017).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces barrages produiront respectivement 4200 MW et 2700 MW d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, et leur construction co\u00fbtera 27 milliards de dollars. Ils font partie des accords chinois \" One Belt One road - New silk road \" sign\u00e9s entre la Chine et le Pakistan en 2015 (Valantin, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/05\/18\/chine-nouvelle-route-de-soie-ressource-securite\/\">La Chine et la nouvelle route de la soie : la strat\u00e9gie pakistanaise<\/a>\u201d,&nbsp;<em>L'analyse de la Red Team<\/em>, 18 mai 2015). Les autorit\u00e9s politiques indiennes s'inqui\u00e8tent des cons\u00e9quences de ces barrages sur l'\u00e9coulement des eaux du Cachemire, qui constitue une source d'eau majeure pour le pays, ainsi que pour le Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces tensions strat\u00e9giques ont lieu dans un environnement \u00e9cologique et climatique en rapide mutation. Cette \"course aux barrages\" se produit lorsque la fonte des glaciers de montagne s'acc\u00e9l\u00e8re en raison du changement climatique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le changement climatique : il change tout<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il se trouve que le changement climatique est un facteur majeur de tensions g\u00e9opolitiques et strat\u00e9giques, car les sources des grands fleuves asiatiques, n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 la vie de milliards de personnes, se trouvent dans ces m\u00eames glaciers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Et le d\u00e9veloppement de ces pays n\u00e9cessite d'utiliser de plus en plus d'eau (Robert Scribbler, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/robertscribbler.com\/2013\/08\/19\/the-glacial-megaflood-global-warming-poses-growing-glacial-outburst-flood-hazard-from-himalyas-to-greenland-and-west-antarctica\/\">La m\u00e9ga inondation glaciaire : le r\u00e9chauffement climatique pose un risque croissant d'inondation par d\u00e9bordement glaciaire de l'Himalaya au Groenland et \u00e0 l'ouest de l'Antarctique<\/a>\u201d,&nbsp;<em>Robertscribbler : gribouiller pour la justice environnementale, sociale et \u00e9conomique<\/em>le 19 ao\u00fbt 2013).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/uBtQqX-fAyo?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qui est l'eau ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aujourd'hui, la Chine et l'Inde dominent ensemble l'Asie du Sud et l'Asie de l'Est, tout en \u00e9tant des puissances \u00e9conomiques et politiques r\u00e9gionales et internationales. En outre, leur population globale s'\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 3 milliards de personnes - soit pr\u00e8s de 40% de tous les \u00eatres humains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Par cons\u00e9quent, les tensions cr\u00e9\u00e9es par leur concurrence pour l'eau dans un monde qui se r\u00e9chauffe constituent un nouveau type de crise g\u00e9opolitique. Cela signifie que le changement climatique exerce une pression de plus en plus forte sur les acteurs politiques et militaires, qui sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 en d\u00e9saccord les uns avec les autres, tout en soumettant les syst\u00e8mes de coop\u00e9ration dans le domaine de l'eau \u00e0 un stress croissant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis 2020, ces tensions militaires s'intensifient et les deux puissances acc\u00e9l\u00e8rent la militarisation de l'Himalaya (Shweta Sharma, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/asia\/china\/india-china-border-rocket-launchers-b1941776.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">L'Inde et la Chine renforcent leur puissance de feu \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re avec des obusiers et des lance-roquettes.<\/a>\u201d, <em>L'Ind\u00e9pendant<\/em>, 21 octobre 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YpZSLhXILR8?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le lien entre g\u00e9ophysique et g\u00e9opolitique<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le changement climatique devient ainsi un amplificateur des crises g\u00e9opolitiques actuelles et futures. En effet, il acc\u00e9l\u00e8re d'abord la fonte des glaciers. Ensuite, pour la Chine, ces barrages sont aussi un moyen d'att\u00e9nuer le changement climatique, tout en disposant de suffisamment d'eau pour son d\u00e9veloppement. Or, cette approche est un important facteur de concurrence pour l'Inde, qui refuse de d\u00e9pendre de l'hydro\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 chinoise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le changement climatique entra\u00eene donc l'\u00e9mergence d'un nouveau type de crise g\u00e9opolitique d'une ampleur incroyable. Le n\u0153ud de cette crise d'un nouveau genre est la relation complexe entre la s\u00e9curisation de l'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l'eau pour les pays g\u00e9ants tout en subissant les effets du changement climatique. Dans le m\u00eame temps, ils tentent d'att\u00e9nuer le changement climatique, tout en s'y adaptant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En d'autres termes, la nature m\u00eame des tensions militaires croissantes entre la Chine et l'Inde est la transposition de leur profondeur historique dans le contexte de la crise g\u00e9ophysique actuelle. L'eau \u00e9tant la vie, en particulier pour les nations fortes de 1,5 milliard d'habitants, le changement climatique les \"turbo\u00efse\" et les transforme en quelque chose qui peut se transformer en conflits existentiels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La guerre pour les besoins de base ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le printemps arabe de 2011 et les tensions militaires entre la Chine et l'Inde de 2020-2021 r\u00e9v\u00e8lent comment le changement climatique exerce une pression majeure sur l'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 la nourriture et \u00e0 l'eau de pays entiers, y compris les deux pays les plus peupl\u00e9s de la plan\u00e8te.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cela nous indique que les guerres climatiques, sous couvert de guerres civiles ou internationales, sont des guerres pour les besoins fondamentaux. En tant que tel, s'il n'y a pas d'effort massif pour l'att\u00e9nuation du changement climatique, la menace sur les besoins fondamentaux peut tr\u00e8s bien conduire \u00e0 une mont\u00e9e en puissance militaire et strat\u00e9gique aux extr\u00eames.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Image en vedette : Image par&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/fr\/users\/geralt-9301\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=216833\">Gerd Altmann<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/fr\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=216833\">Pixabay, Domaine public.<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que le changement climatique s'intensifie, un enjeu majeur est de comprendre comment la g\u00e9ophysique en \u00e9volution rapide et la guerre sont imbriqu\u00e9es. Depuis 2013, au Red Team Analysis Society, nous \u00e9tudions la fa\u00e7on dont le changement climatique, les militaires et la g\u00e9opolitique interagissent (Climate change security, The Red Team Analysis Society). Depuis lors, les choses ont radicalement chang\u00e9. La relation complexe entre ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/02\/what-are-climate-wars\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Que sont les guerres climatiques ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":31130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2497,1722,2860,2499,2501],"tags":[1789,2560],"class_list":["post-31013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-featured","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-south-asia","tag-featured","tag-open-access","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What are Climate Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/02\/que-sont-les-guerres-climatiques\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What are Climate Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As climate change intensifies, a major issue is to understand how rapidly changing geophysics and war are intertwined. Since 2013, at the Red Team Analysis Society we study the way climate change, the military and geopolitics interact (Climate change security, The Red Team Analysis Society). Since then, things have changed dramatically. The complex relationship between &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0What are Climate Wars?\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/02\/que-sont-les-guerres-climatiques\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-02T14:53:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-02T15:19:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/earth-2-1568.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"954\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b840ac3537c3f891b6e61a6e559775fe\"},\"headline\":\"What are Climate Wars?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-02T14:53:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-02T15:19:46+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1556,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/earth-2-1568.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"Open Access\"],\"articleSection\":[\"China\",\"Environmental Geostrategy\",\"Featured\",\"Middle-East and North Africa\",\"South Asia\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\",\"name\":\"What are Climate Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/earth-2-1568.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-02T14:53:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-02T15:19:46+00:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/earth-2-1568.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/earth-2-1568.jpg\",\"width\":1568,\"height\":954,\"caption\":\"Symbolic depiction of future global climate wars and global wars for resources. A picture by Gerd Altmann, public domain\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"description\":\"Strategic Foresight &amp; Early Warning \uff65 Political &amp; Geopolitical Risk \u00b7 Scenarios\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Red-Team-Analysis\\\/341280995886057\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/helenelavoix\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/5403964\\\/admin\\\/dashboard\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b840ac3537c3f891b6e61a6e559775fe\",\"name\":\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\",\"description\":\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) is a guest contributor. Views expressed are their own. He is specialised in strategic studies and defense sociology with a focus on environmental geostrategy. He is the author of \\\"Menace climatique sur l\u2019ordre mondial\\\" (Climatic threat on the world order), \\\"Ecologie et gouvernance mondiale\\\" (Ecology and world governance), \\\"Guerre et Nature, l\u2019Am\u00e9rique pr\u00e9pare la guerre du climat, \\\"(War and nature: America gets ready for climate war) and of \\\"Hollywood, the Pentagon and Washington\\\".\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/author\\\/jeanmichelvalantin\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Qu'est-ce que les \u00ab guerres climatiques \u00bb ? \u2022 Le Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/02\/que-sont-les-guerres-climatiques\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":"What are Climate Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"As climate change intensifies, a major issue is to understand how rapidly changing geophysics and war are intertwined. 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