{"id":31308,"date":"2021-11-30T17:25:57","date_gmt":"2021-11-30T16:25:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=31308"},"modified":"2021-12-01T09:28:33","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T08:28:33","slug":"y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/30\/will-there-be-climate-civil-wars\/","title":{"rendered":"Y aura-t-il des guerres civiles climatiques ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vers des guerres civiles climatiques ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(Traduction fran\u00e7aise faite par IA) Les \"guerres climatiques\" ne seront pas \"seulement\" des guerres inter\u00e9tatiques. <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">Impacts de la menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : l'accord commercial entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l'UE, le Parlement europ\u00e9en et l'avenir de l'Europe<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/01\/28\/signal-chronicles-iran-trump-china\/\">Signal - Mini-Chroniques (11) : L'Iran, Trump et la Chine<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/01\/21\/us-threat-greenland-when-watch\/\">La menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : Quand aurions-nous d\u00fb commencer \u00e0 la surveiller ?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans notre pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent article, nous avons vu que les conflits actuels int\u00e8grent des tensions li\u00e9es au climat. Ce processus transforme litt\u00e9ralement certains conflits en \"proto-guerres climatiques\" (Jean-Michel Valantin, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/02\/que-sont-les-guerres-climatiques\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Que sont les guerres climatiques ?<\/a>\u201d, <em>The Red Team Analysis Society<\/em>2 novembre 2021). Cette transformation suit la mani\u00e8re dont la cha\u00eene des cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique influence la d\u00e9finition des buts de la guerre. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le m\u00eame processus s'applique tr\u00e8s probablement aux tensions internes. D\u00e8s lors, nous devons nous demander si les interactions entre le changement climatique et les tensions internes ne risquent pas de d\u00e9boucher sur des guerres civiles ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Guerre civile<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Afin de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question, nous devons d\u00e9finir ce qu'est une guerre civile. Nous proposons de la d\u00e9finir comme une guerre qui se d\u00e9roule \u00e0 l'int\u00e9rieur des fronti\u00e8res d'un pays donn\u00e9, entre des parties arm\u00e9es diff\u00e9rentes mais nationales qui combattent l'\u00c9tat (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/topic\/civil-war\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Encyclopedia Britannica<\/em><\/a>).&nbsp; <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons alignwide is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-font-size more is-style-fill\" style=\"font-size:17px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/09\/09\/d%c3%a9mocratie-cl%c3%a9-%c3%a0-%c3%a9viter-avenir-guerres-1\/\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(121deg,rgb(254,205,165) 0%,rgb(254,45,45) 50%,rgb(107,0,62) 100%)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><meta charset=\"utf-8\">\u2b05\ufe0e <strong>En savoir plus<\/strong> ...<br>La ou les d\u00e9finitions de la guerre : \"La d\u00e9mocratie : la cl\u00e9 pour \u00e9viter les guerres futures ? (1)\"<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide are-vertically-aligned-top is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Selon Max Weber, un \u00c9tat est le \"monopole l\u00e9gitime de la violence\" (\"<a href=\"http:\/\/anthropos-lab.net\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/Weber-Politics-as-a-Vocation.pdf\">La politique comme vocation<\/a>\", 1919). Ainsi, une guerre civile signale sa faiblesse et l'aggrave. Cependant, cet affaiblissement peut tr\u00e8s bien transformer une guerre civile en une \"guerre de d\u00e9sagr\u00e9gation\", quand et o\u00f9 les parties oppos\u00e9es continuent \u00e0 se battre, tandis que la guerre devient sa propre finalit\u00e9 (Harald Welzer,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.polity.co.uk\/book.asp?ref=9780745651453\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Les guerres du climat : ce pourquoi les gens seront tu\u00e9s au XXIe si\u00e8cle<sup>st<\/sup>&nbsp;si\u00e8cle<\/em><\/a>, 2012).&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list aligncenter related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/04\/29\/future-of-state\/\">Prospective pour l'avenir de l'\u00c9tat-nation moderne : les chroniques d'Everstate<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/10\/08\/the-chronicles-of-everstate-a-practical-example-of-foresight-analysis\/\">Les chroniques de l'exag\u00e9ration : un exemple pratique d'analyse prospective<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/06\/09\/future-of-state-and-governance-bibliography\/\">L'avenir de l'\u00c9tat-nation moderne et de la gouvernance - Bibliographie<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, une guerre civile implique une rupture profonde de l'ordre social, institutionnel et politique. Or, dans certaines r\u00e9gions et \u00e0 certaines p\u00e9riodes, le changement climatique exerce d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s des effets analogues \u00e0 ceux de la guerre civile. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous allons donc utiliser le d\u00e9but de la guerre en Syrie comme \u00e9tude de cas.  Tout d'abord, nous verrons comment et pourquoi il y a eu une telle vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 sociale face \u00e0 la longue s\u00e9cheresse de 2006-2011.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons alignwide is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 has-custom-font-size is-style-fill more\" style=\"font-size:17px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/05\/19\/intelligence-strategique-evaluation-pour-ukraine-mise-en-scene\/#HIIK\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(121deg,rgb(254,205,165) 0%,rgb(254,45,45) 50%,rgb(107,0,62) 100%)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u2b05\ufe0e En savoir plus...<\/strong><br>L'intensit\u00e9 de la guerre : <br>Nous expliquons les \u00e9tapes du conflit, qui peuvent \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es pour tous les conflits et toutes les guerres, dans \"Conflit en Ukraine - Pr\u00e9parer le terrain\".<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 has-custom-font-size is-style-fill more\" style=\"font-size:17px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/01\/13\/comment-analyser-les-futures-menaces-s%c3%a9curit%c3%a9-5-sc%c3%a9narios-et-crises\/\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(121deg,rgb(254,205,165) 0%,rgb(254,45,45) 50%,rgb(107,0,62) 100%)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u2b05\ufe0e <strong>En savoir plus<\/strong> ...<br>Voir \u00e9galement \"Comment analyser les menaces futures pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 (5) : Sc\u00e9narios et crises\".<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ensuite, nous verrons comment le changement climatique et les tensions politiques ont interagi au Moyen-Orient et en Syrie pendant le printemps arabe et le d\u00e9but de la guerre civile syrienne en 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enfin, nous \u00e9tudierons comment cela a conduit \u00e0 l'affaiblissement de l'\u00c9tat syrien en tant que monopole de la violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Premier contact<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La fragilit\u00e9 de la Syrie<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il existe plusieurs \u00e9tudes sur les liens entre le changement climatique et la guerre civile syrienne. Plusieurs chercheurs identifient la fa\u00e7on dont la longue s\u00e9cheresse historique de 2006-2010 a d\u00e9truit le tissu rural syrien (Werrell et Femia, <a href=\"https:\/\/americanprogress.org\/article\/the-arab-spring-and-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Le printemps arabe et le changement climatique<\/a>, 2013).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list aligncenter related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/04\/15\/potential-futures-for-syria-in-the-fog-of-war-1\/\">Futurs potentiels pour la Syrie dans le brouillard de la guerre<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/04\/22\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-2\/\">Groupes pro-Assad et forces d'opposition mod\u00e9r\u00e9es<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/04\/29\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-3-state-of-play-part-ii\/\">Les Kurdes dans la guerre en Syrie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/05\/06\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-4-state-of-play-part-iii\/\">Salafis nationalistes et djihadistes mondiaux en Syrie<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/FP0AMtAOTYQ?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elle a entra\u00een\u00e9 un exode rural massif de populations pauvres et d\u00e9munies dans des villes mal pr\u00e9par\u00e9es et mal g\u00e9r\u00e9es. Dans ce contexte, le d\u00e9veloppement ultra-rapide des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s urbaines a bien cr\u00e9\u00e9 un vaste r\u00e9servoir de jeunes d\u00e9saffili\u00e9s. Ceux-ci allaient devenir les premiers r\u00e9servoirs des insurrections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 des b\u00e2timents<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, le manque m\u00eame de r\u00e9silience de ce pays semi-aride, m\u00eame face \u00e0 une s\u00e9cheresse historique, est surprenant. Il se trouve que les raisons de cette vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 la s\u00e9cheresse prennent racine dans la politique agricole du r\u00e9gime Assad depuis les ann\u00e9es 1990 (Aden W. Hassan et alii, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/12\/09\/le-fosse-persan-entre-pouvoir-et-effondrement\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">L'impact des politiques alimentaires et agricoles sur l'utilisation des eaux souterraines en Syrie<\/a>\", Journal of Hydrology, 29 mars 2014).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 cette \u00e9poque, le r\u00e9gime a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par la force la culture du coton pour l'exportation vers le march\u00e9 international. La culture du coton est tr\u00e8s gourmande en eau. Ainsi, le nombre de puits a doubl\u00e9 entre 1998 et 2006, surexploitant ainsi les r\u00e9serves d'eau syriennes assez limit\u00e9es (Asan, ibid). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, la Syrie souffrait d\u00e9j\u00e0 d'un manque d'eau aigu lorsque la longue s\u00e9cheresse de 2006 a commenc\u00e9. Face \u00e0 cette catastrophe, l'\u00c9tat syrien et ses autorit\u00e9s politiques \u00e9taient fondamentalement impuissants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nJL5PPHZS2A?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette crise a \u00e9t\u00e9 d'autant plus profonde qu'elle s'est d\u00e9roul\u00e9e dans le cadre plus large du lien climat-politique des Printemps arabes de 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le lien climat-pain-politique du printemps arabe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L'ensemble du processus du \"printemps arabe\" s'est d\u00e9roul\u00e9 dans le contexte d'une hausse g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des prix des produits de base amorc\u00e9e quelques ann\u00e9es auparavant. L'impact sur le bl\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement notable, notamment en 2007-2008, o\u00f9, comme le ma\u00efs et le riz, le bl\u00e9 a vu son prix augmenter de 100% (Michael Klare, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/tomdispatch.com\/michael-klare-the-coming-global-explosion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">L'entr\u00e9e dans un monde de chocs de ressources<\/a>\", TomDispatch, 21 avril 2013). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Par cons\u00e9quent, la nourriture et, en particulier, le pain, l'\u00e9l\u00e9ment le plus important (outre l'eau) de la vie biologique et sociale quotidienne pour des dizaines de millions de familles et de personnes arabes pauvres dans une douzaine de pays, co\u00fbtent plus cher. Ce qui signifie : trop cher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cFL-I4fYKI4?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;start=13&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le march\u00e9 mondial des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales \u00e9tait sous pression en raison de trois facteurs convergents. Il s'agissait d'une flamb\u00e9e brutale des prix du p\u00e9trole, d'un d\u00e9tournement de l'alimentation vers les cultures destin\u00e9es aux biocarburants et de la sp\u00e9culation financi\u00e8re sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res. Cela a d\u00e9clench\u00e9 une \"\u00e9pid\u00e9mie\" d'\u00e9meutes de la faim dans tout le tiers monde (Michael Klare, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/tomdispatch.com\/michael-klare-a-pandemic-of-economic-violence\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Une plan\u00e8te au bord du gouffre<\/a>\", TomDispatch, 24 f\u00e9vrier 2009).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La situation s'est encore aggrav\u00e9e en 2010-2011, en raison d'une s\u00e9rie d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements climatiques extr\u00eames qui ont touch\u00e9 les principales zones de production c\u00e9r\u00e9ali\u00e8re. Il y a eu des s\u00e9cheresses g\u00e9antes en Russie et en Chine, et d'immenses inondations en Australie. La Russie a imm\u00e9diatement d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de retirer ce qui restait de ses r\u00e9coltes du march\u00e9 mondial. La flamb\u00e9e des prix a \u00e9t\u00e9 la r\u00e9ponse imm\u00e9diate du march\u00e9 (Klare, 2013).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/vOI6OCHerUI?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent&#038;listType=playlist&#038;list=PLRMgx6MVpIUaVdm7kgBy0J2LydTaQBbDE\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, le prix du pain a accentu\u00e9 les tensions sociales syriennes, qui \u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 ancr\u00e9es dans la soci\u00e9t\u00e9. <meta charset=\"utf-8\">les cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Choc p\u00e9trolier et financier<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode que la s\u00e9cheresse, la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re syrienne a diminu\u00e9 de fa\u00e7on spectaculaire en raison de l'\u00e9puisement g\u00e9ologique. La perte financi\u00e8re qui s'en est suivie a priv\u00e9 les autorit\u00e9s politiques syriennes de leurs capacit\u00e9s \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre aux besoins de base des villes tr\u00e8s pauvres en pleine expansion (Mathieu Auzanneau, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seuil.com\/ouvrage\/petrole-matthieu-auzanneau\/9782021480757\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">P\u00e9trole, Le D\u00e9clin est Proche<\/a>, Le Seuil, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L'\u00c9tat, la guerre civile syrienne et la g\u00e9ophysique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour appr\u00e9hender le r\u00f4le central que joue \"l'\u00c9tat de l'\u00c9tat syrien\" dans cette crise, il faut se rappeler que, selon des penseurs politiques majeurs tels que Thomas Hobbes (<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Leviathan_(book)\"><em>Le L\u00e9viathan<\/em><\/a>1651), Max Weber (<a href=\"http:\/\/anthropos-lab.net\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/Weber-Politics-as-a-Vocation.pdf\"><em>La politique comme vocation<\/em><\/a>1919) et Norbert Elias (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.norberteliasfoundation.nl\/elias\/bibliography\/english.php\"><em>Le processus de civilisation, vol.II, Formation de l'\u00c9tat et civilisation<\/em><\/a>1982), l'\u00c9tat concentre le monopole de la violence l\u00e9gitime et un grand capital de l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9, c'est-\u00e0-dire le droit de gouverner reconnu par la population prot\u00e9g\u00e9e par l'\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En d'autres termes, la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 de l'\u00c9tat est profond\u00e9ment ancr\u00e9e dans sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 interdire aux autres acteurs l'usage de la violence. Lorsque l'\u00c9tat est efficace, il est donc capable de prot\u00e9ger les populations de la violence d'une invasion, d'une guerre civile, d'une catastrophe ou d'un crime g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 (Norbert Elias, ibid).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L'agriculture comme facteur d'attraction du changement climatique<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, en 2011, l'\u00c9tat syrien est confront\u00e9 aux interactions entre une agriculture non durable, une s\u00e9cheresse extr\u00eame et l'\u00e9puisement du p\u00e9trole. Malheureusement, il est incapable de prot\u00e9ger le peuple syrien et la coh\u00e9sion sociale. Le r\u00e9gime Assad est incapable de g\u00e9rer cette crise (Jason Burke, <a href=\"https:\/\/thenewpress.com\/books\/new-threat\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">La nouvelle menace, Le pass\u00e9, le pr\u00e9sent et l'avenir du militantisme islamique,<\/a> 2017).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/qu64L74LC1k?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=fr-FR&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">C'est dans ce contexte qu'en 2011, diff\u00e9rentes insurrections \u00e9mergent lors du \" printemps arabe \". Comme en Tunisie et en \u00c9gypte, ces mouvements contestent aussi bien les conditions de vie que la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 des autorit\u00e9s politiques. D\u00e8s juillet 2011, l'Etat gouvern\u00e9 par Assad commence \u00e0 les combattre. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En d'autres termes, s'il n'y a pas de causalit\u00e9 directe et imm\u00e9diate entre la guerre civile syrienne et le changement climatique, il existe des liens profonds entre les vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques et sociales et le choc profond et durable que la longue s\u00e9cheresse inflige au pays.  Ces conditions sont profond\u00e9ment d\u00e9stabilisantes et affaiblissent l'autorit\u00e9 et les capacit\u00e9s de l'\u00c9tat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il en r\u00e9sulte un ensemble de conditions sociales, \u00e9conomiques et politiques volatiles qui alimentent la contestation tout en d\u00e9stabilisant et en d\u00e9l\u00e9gitimisant les institutions ((Acemoglu et Robinson,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/whynationsfail.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Pourquoi les nations \u00e9chouent<\/em><\/a>, 2012). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lorsque cette l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 et cette autorit\u00e9 s'affaiblissent, les moyens de prot\u00e9ger la population diminuent, tandis que les risques de radicalisation et de violence augmentent (John Gray,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Black-Mass-Apocalyptic-Religion-Utopia\/dp\/0374531528\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Messe noire<\/em>,&nbsp;<em>La religion apocalyptique et la mort de l'utopie<\/em><\/a>, 2007).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le lien entre le climat et la politique en tant que dynamique int\u00e9gr\u00e9e<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/02\/01\/water-a-strategic-foresight-and-warning-issue-for-national-security\/\">S\u00e9curit\u00e9 de l'eau<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/03\/24\/global-water-security-a-us-intelligence-community-assessment-pdf\/\">S\u00e9curit\u00e9 mondiale de l'eau : une \u00e9valuation de la communaut\u00e9 du renseignement des \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/03\/27\/building-upon-the-2012-global-water-security-ic-assessment\/\">S'inspirer de l'\u00e9valuation de la \"s\u00e9curit\u00e9 mondiale de l'eau\" de la communaut\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine du renseignement<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/05\/22\/water-security-maps\/\">Cartes de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de l'eau<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/07\/15\/2013-2018-panglossy-water-privatization\/\">2213 - 2218 EVT - Tirer les le\u00e7ons de la privatisation de l'eau ? (Panglossy)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/03\/09\/the-water-sigils\/\">Les Sigils de l'eau<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En l'occurrence, ces interactions g\u00e9ophysiques et sociales doivent \u00eatre comprises comme un processus int\u00e9gr\u00e9. En effet, dans un pays aride, pour rester durables, les utilisations de l'eau pour les besoins agricoles, humains et urbains sont fondamentalement d\u00e9pendantes de la disponibilit\u00e9 limit\u00e9e propre \u00e0 cette ressource.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, le cycle de l'eau est fondamentalement int\u00e9gr\u00e9 \u00e0 la dynamique de l'atmosph\u00e8re. <meta charset=\"utf-8\">climat (\u00e9valuationJohann Rockstrom et al., \"Planetary boundaries : Exploring the safe operating space for humanity\",  <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ecologyandsociety.org\/vol14\/iss2\/art32\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00c9cologie et soci\u00e9t\u00e9<\/a><\/em>, 2009). Par cons\u00e9quent, les utilisations de l'eau attirent litt\u00e9ralement la dynamique du changement climatique dans le tissu m\u00eame de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 syrienne. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il semble donc que le changement climatique puisse tr\u00e8s bien s'immiscer dans le tissu de tensions nationales et domestiques menant \u00e0 une guerre civile. Cela signifie que ce processus peut \u00e9merger dans d'autres pays lorsque des dynamiques similaires apparaissent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elle n'est donc pas sp\u00e9cifique \u00e0 la Syrie ou \u00e0 d'autres pays \"non occidentaux\". On peut donc se demander si cette combinaison mortelle peut \u00e9merger dans une grande puissance ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Image en vedette : Le fleuve Euphrate coule \u00e0 travers le lac Assad en Syrie sur cette photo prise par la Station spatiale internationale alors qu'elle \u00e9tait en orbite \u00e0 263 miles au-dessus. NASA, 22 avril 2021. Domaine public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vers des guerres civiles climatiques ? \" Les guerres climatiques \" ne seront pas \" seulement \" des guerres inter\u00e9tatiques. Dans notre pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent article, nous avons vu que les conflits actuels int\u00e8grent des tensions li\u00e9es au climat. Ce processus transforme litt\u00e9ralement certains conflits en \" guerres proto-climatiques \" (Jean-Michel Valantin, \" Qu'est-ce que les guerres climatiques ? \", Le Red Team Analysis Society, 2 novembre 2021). Cette transformation fait suite \u00e0 la ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/30\/will-there-be-climate-civil-wars\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Y aura-t-il des guerres civiles climatiques ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":31599,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1722,2860,2499],"tags":[1789,2058],"class_list":["post-31308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-featured","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","tag-featured","tag-syria-issues","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will there be Climate Civil Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/30\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will there be Climate Civil Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Towards climate civil wars? &#8220;Climate wars&#8221; will not &#8220;only&#8221; be interstate wars. In our precedent article, we saw that current conflicts are integrating climate related tensions. This process is literally transforming certain conflicts into \u201cproto-climate wars\u201d (Jean-Michel Valantin, \u201cWhat are Climate Wars ?\u201d, The Red Team Analysis Society, 2 November 2021). This transformation follows the &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Will there be Climate Civil Wars?\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/30\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-30T16:25:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-12-01T08:28:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/ISS-65_Euphrates_River_flows_through_Lake_Assad_in_Syria.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b840ac3537c3f891b6e61a6e559775fe\"},\"headline\":\"Will there be Climate Civil Wars?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-30T16:25:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-12-01T08:28:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1533,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/ISS-65_Euphrates_River_flows_through_Lake_Assad_in_Syria.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"Syria issues\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Environmental Geostrategy\",\"Featured\",\"Middle-East and North Africa\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\\\/\",\"name\":\"Will there be Climate Civil Wars? 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Views expressed are their own. He is specialised in strategic studies and defense sociology with a focus on environmental geostrategy. He is the author of \\\"Menace climatique sur l\u2019ordre mondial\\\" (Climatic threat on the world order), \\\"Ecologie et gouvernance mondiale\\\" (Ecology and world governance), \\\"Guerre et Nature, l\u2019Am\u00e9rique pr\u00e9pare la guerre du climat, \\\"(War and nature: America gets ready for climate war) and of \\\"Hollywood, the Pentagon and Washington\\\".\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/author\\\/jeanmichelvalantin\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Y aura-t-il des \u00ab guerres civiles climatiques \u00bb ? \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/11\/30\/y-aura-t-il-des-guerres-civiles-climatiques\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":"Will there be Climate Civil Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"Towards climate civil wars? &#8220;Climate wars&#8221; will not &#8220;only&#8221; be interstate wars. In our precedent article, we saw that current conflicts are integrating climate related tensions. This process is literally transforming certain conflicts into \u201cproto-climate wars\u201d (Jean-Michel Valantin, \u201cWhat are Climate Wars ?\u201d, The Red Team Analysis Society, 2 November 2021). 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