{"id":33469,"date":"2022-02-22T18:35:43","date_gmt":"2022-02-22T17:35:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=33469"},"modified":"2022-02-23T10:03:46","modified_gmt":"2022-02-23T09:03:46","slug":"faq-scenarios-prospective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Une br\u00e8ve FAQ sur les sc\u00e9narios pour la prospective strat\u00e9gique, l'alerte pr\u00e9coce et la gestion des risques"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu'est-ce qu'un sc\u00e9nario pour la prospective strat\u00e9gique, l'alerte pr\u00e9coce et la gestion des risques ?<\/strong>

Pour la prospective strat\u00e9gique, l'alerte pr\u00e9coce, la gestion des risques ou toute autre m\u00e9thodologie d'anticipation, un sc\u00e9nario est un r\u00e9cit fictif se d\u00e9roulant \u00e0 un moment pr\u00e9cis dans le futur. Il r\u00e9pond \u00e0 une question sur l'avenir. Elle s'appuie sur une analyse d\u00e9taill\u00e9e de cette question.<\/p> <\/div>

Puis-je utiliser le sc\u00e9nario pour me pr\u00e9parer ?<\/strong>

Oui, en effet. Les sc\u00e9narios sont les meilleurs outils pour \u00eatre totalement pr\u00eat et pr\u00e9par\u00e9 \u00e0 l'avenir et \u00e0 l'incertitude. Plus le niveau d'incertitude est \u00e9lev\u00e9, plus les sc\u00e9narios deviennent importants.<\/p> <\/div>

\u00c0 quoi servent les sc\u00e9narios ?<\/strong>

Les sc\u00e9narios vous permettent de planifier \u00e0 l'avance, de mettre en \u0153uvre vos r\u00e9ponses et donc d'\u00eatre pr\u00e9par\u00e9<\/strong> pour les changements \u00e0 venir. Ils sont l'outil id\u00e9al pour s'assurer que la pr\u00e9paration est optimale.<\/p> <\/div>

Qu'est-ce que l'analyse de sc\u00e9narios dans la gestion des risques ?<\/strong>

L'analyse de sc\u00e9narios est une m\u00e9thodologie par laquelle vous analysez une question concernant l'avenir, notamment ses principales incertitudes. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 cette m\u00e9thode, vous construisez un ensemble de r\u00e9cits fictifs qui d\u00e9crivent le c\u00f4ne des futurs possibles. L'analyse de sc\u00e9narios est similaire \u00e0 la construction de sc\u00e9narios.<\/p> <\/div>

Y a-t-il un moyen de savoir si les sc\u00e9narios sont bons ?<\/strong>

Oui, si vos sc\u00e9narios sont \u00e9labor\u00e9s selon une m\u00e9thodologie appropri\u00e9e, ils seront valables. Il y a des points \u00e0 v\u00e9rifier pour \u00e9valuer si les sc\u00e9narios sont valides ou non, comme expliqu\u00e9 dans cet article : \"Vos sc\u00e9narios de prospective strat\u00e9gique sont-ils valides?<\/a>\u201c.<\/p> <\/div>

Avez-vous besoin d'une m\u00e9thodologie pour \u00e9laborer des sc\u00e9narios valables ? <\/strong>

Oui. Si vous voulez d\u00e9velopper des sc\u00e9narios d\u00e9taill\u00e9s et valides, vous devez suivre une m\u00e9thodologie correcte. Certaines m\u00e9thodologies sont plus solides que d'autres. Vous devez vous assurer que la m\u00e9thodologie que vous utilisez conduit \u00e0 des sc\u00e9narios valides et de qualit\u00e9, comme expliqu\u00e9 ci-dessus.C'est pourquoi nous avons cr\u00e9\u00e9 un cours ax\u00e9 sur construction de sc\u00e9narios<\/a>. Les sc\u00e9narios font \u00e9galement partie de la section sur les m\u00e9thodologie<\/a> dans notre publications<\/a>.<\/p> <\/div>

Quels sont les principaux inconv\u00e9nients de la construction de sc\u00e9narios ?<\/strong>

L'\u00e9laboration de sc\u00e9narios ad\u00e9quats exige beaucoup de ressources en termes de temps et de connaissances. Cependant, comme les sc\u00e9narios correctement cr\u00e9\u00e9s durent, il s'agit d'un investissement.<\/p> <\/div>

Existe-t-il d'autres types de \"sc\u00e9narios\", qui peuvent \u00eatre r\u00e9alis\u00e9s rapidement ?<\/strong>

Oui, il y en a. Id\u00e9alement, nous devrions leur donner d'autres noms pour ne pas cr\u00e9er de confusion.Par exemple, vous pouvez nommer \"sc\u00e9nario\" toute histoire fictive sur l'avenir (ou, d'ailleurs, le pass\u00e9 ou le pr\u00e9sent). Ces types de sc\u00e9narios sont utiles dans le cadre d'un brainstorming, pour essayer de trouver des jokers, pour stimuler l'imagination.Cependant, ils ne seront pas aussi utiles que des sc\u00e9narios d\u00e9taill\u00e9s pour la pr\u00e9paration. En particulier, ils ne vous aideront probablement pas \u00e0 \u00eatre pr\u00eat dans toute la gamme des futurs possibles. Ils ne peuvent pas non plus \u00eatre utilis\u00e9s pour l'alerte pr\u00e9coce. Les surprises restent donc probables.<\/p> <\/div>

Qu'est-ce qu'un sc\u00e9nario \"What if\" ?<\/strong>

Les sc\u00e9narios \"What if\" sont des r\u00e9cits fictifs, o\u00f9 vous remettez en question une hypoth\u00e8se, ce qui vient juste apr\u00e8s le \"what if\".Ces sc\u00e9narios, souvent courts, sont vraiment utiles pour faire l'effort d'imagination n\u00e9cessaire pour briser les pr\u00e9jug\u00e9s, les fausses croyances, les pr\u00e9jug\u00e9s, etc.Toutefois, comme l'explique le point pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, elles ne suffisent pas \u00e0 elles seules \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper une pr\u00e9paration solide et exhaustive \u00e0 toutes les \u00e9ventualit\u00e9s pour l'avenir.<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>\n\n\n\n

Image en vedette par PIRO4D<\/a> sur Pixabay<\/a> <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Question : \"Quel est un sc\u00e9nario pour la prospective strat\u00e9gique, l'alerte pr\u00e9coce et la gestion des risques ?\"
\nR\u00e9ponse : Pour la prospective strat\u00e9gique, l'alerte pr\u00e9coce, la gestion des risques ou toute autre m\u00e9thodologie d'anticipation, un sc\u00e9nario est un r\u00e9cit fictif se d\u00e9roulant \u00e0 un moment pr\u00e9cis dans le futur.
\nIl r\u00e9pond \u00e0 une question sur l'avenir.
\nElle s'appuie sur une analyse d\u00e9taill\u00e9e de cette question.....<\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1731,2860,3237],"tags":[1789],"class_list":["post-33469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basics","category-featured","category-scenario-building","tag-featured","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nA Short FAQ on Scenarios for Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Risk Management • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/02\/22\/faq-scenarios-prospective\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Short FAQ on Scenarios for Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Risk Management • The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Question: "What is a scenario for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management?" 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749371829\",\"position\":1,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749371829\",\"name\":\"What is a scenario for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management?\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"For strategic foresight, early warning, risk management or any anticipatory methodology, a scenario is a fictionalized narrative set at a specific time in the future. <br\\\/>It answers a question about the future. <br\\\/>It is grounded in a detailed analysis of this question.\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749469991\",\"position\":2,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749469991\",\"name\":\"Can I use scenario for preparedness?\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Yes, indeed. Scenarios are the best tools to be fully ready and prepared for the future and for uncertainty. <br\\\/>The highest the level of uncertainty, the most important scenarios become.\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749537055\",\"position\":3,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749537055\",\"name\":\"What is the use of scenarios?\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Scenarios allow you to plan ahead, implement your responses and thus to be <strong>prepared<\\\/strong> for the changes to come. <br\\\/>They are the ideal tool to make sure preparedness is optimal.\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749692650\",\"position\":4,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749692650\",\"name\":\"What is scenario analysis in risk management?\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Scenario analysis is a methodology through which you analyse a question regarding the future, notably its key uncertainties. <br\\\/>Through this method you build a set of fictionalised narratives that outline the cone of possible futures. Scenario analysis is similar to scenario building.\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749603285\",\"position\":5,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1585749603285\",\"name\":\"Is there a way to know if scenarios are good?\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Yes, if your scenarios are built according to a proper methodology then they will be valid. <br\\\/>There are points to check to evaluate if scenarios are valid or not, as explained in this article: \\\"<a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/01\\\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\\\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\">Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid?<\\\/a>\\\".\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1645547942277\",\"position\":6,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1645547942277\",\"name\":\"Do you need a methodology to develop valid scenarios?\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Yes. If you want to develop detailed valid scenarios, then you need to follow a correct methodology. Some methodologies are stronger than others. You need to make sure the methodology you use leads to valid and good scenarios, as explained above.<br\\\/>This is why we created a course focused on <a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/online-course-geopolitical-risk-and-crisis-anticipation-scenario-building\\\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\">scenario-building<\\\/a>. <br\\\/>Scenarios are also part of the section on <a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/articles-research-and-publications\\\/methodology-strategic-foresight-early-warning-for-geopolitics\\\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\">methodology<\\\/a> in our <a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/articles-research-and-publications\\\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\">publications<\\\/a>.\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1645548894528\",\"position\":7,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/22\\\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\\\/#faq-question-1645548894528\",\"name\":\"What are the main disadvantages of scenario-building\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Building proper scenarios is resource intensive in terms of time and knowledge. 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It is grounded in a detailed analysis of this question....Continue reading","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/02\/22\/faq-scenarios-prospective\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2022-02-22T17:35:43+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-02-23T09:03:46+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1587,"height":941,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"3 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Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749371829","position":1,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749371829","name":"Qu'est-ce qu'un sc\u00e9nario pour la prospective strat\u00e9gique, l'alerte pr\u00e9coce et la gestion des risques ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"For strategic foresight, early warning, risk management or any anticipatory methodology, a scenario is a fictionalized narrative set at a specific time in the future. <br\/>It answers a question about the future. <br\/>It is grounded in a detailed analysis of this question.","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749469991","position":2,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749469991","name":"Puis-je utiliser le sc\u00e9nario pour me pr\u00e9parer ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Yes, indeed. Scenarios are the best tools to be fully ready and prepared for the future and for uncertainty. <br\/>The highest the level of uncertainty, the most important scenarios become.","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749537055","position":3,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749537055","name":"\u00c0 quoi servent les sc\u00e9narios ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Scenarios allow you to plan ahead, implement your responses and thus to be <strong>prepared<\/strong> for the changes to come. <br\/>They are the ideal tool to make sure preparedness is optimal.","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749692650","position":4,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749692650","name":"Qu'est-ce que l'analyse de sc\u00e9narios dans la gestion des risques ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Scenario analysis is a methodology through which you analyse a question regarding the future, notably its key uncertainties. <br\/>Through this method you build a set of fictionalised narratives that outline the cone of possible futures. Scenario analysis is similar to scenario building.","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749603285","position":5,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585749603285","name":"Y a-t-il un moyen de savoir si les sc\u00e9narios sont bons ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Yes, if your scenarios are built according to a proper methodology then they will be valid. <br\/>There are points to check to evaluate if scenarios are valid or not, as explained in this article: \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2021\/02\/01\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid?<\/a>\".","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1645547942277","position":6,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1645547942277","name":"Avez-vous besoin d'une m\u00e9thodologie pour \u00e9laborer des sc\u00e9narios valables ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Yes. If you want to develop detailed valid scenarios, then you need to follow a correct methodology. Some methodologies are stronger than others. You need to make sure the methodology you use leads to valid and good scenarios, as explained above.<br\/>This is why we created a course focused on <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/online-course-geopolitical-risk-and-crisis-anticipation-scenario-building\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">scenario-building<\/a>. <br\/>Scenarios are also part of the section on <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/articles-research-and-publications\/methodology-strategic-foresight-early-warning-for-geopolitics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">methodology<\/a> in our <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/articles-research-and-publications\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">publications<\/a>.","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1645548894528","position":7,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1645548894528","name":"Quels sont les principaux inconv\u00e9nients de la construction de sc\u00e9narios ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Building proper scenarios is resource intensive in terms of time and knowledge. However, because properly created scenarios last, this is an investment.","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1645548064370","position":8,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1645548064370","name":"Existe-t-il d'autres types de \"sc\u00e9narios\", qui peuvent \u00eatre r\u00e9alis\u00e9s rapidement ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Yes there are. Ideally we should give them other names not to create confusion.<br\/>For example, you can name \"scenario\" any fictionalised story about the future (or for that matter the past or the present). <br\/>These types of scenarios are useful in the context of brainstorming, to try to find wild cards, to foster imagination.<br\/>However, they will not be as useful as fully detailed scenarios for preparedness. Notably, they will likely not help you be ready across the range of possible futures. They may also not be used for early warning. Thus surprises remain likely.<br\/>","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1645548593059","position":9,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2022\/02\/22\/a-short-faq-on-scenarios\/#faq-question-1645548593059","name":"Qu'est-ce qu'un sc\u00e9nario \"What if\" ?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"What if scenarios are fictionalised narratives, where you question an assumption, what comes right after the \"what if\".<br\/>These often short scenarios are truly useful to make the effort of imagination necessary to break prejudice, false beliefs, biaises, etc.<br\/>They are however, as explained in the previous point\" not sufficient on their own to develop strong and exhaustive preparedness across all possibles for the future.","inLanguage":"fr-FR"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33469\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}