{"id":36021,"date":"2023-03-30T17:03:31","date_gmt":"2023-03-30T15:03:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=36021"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:10:09","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:10:09","slug":"the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/03\/30\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Red Team Analysis Weekly - 30 mars 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">(La photo a \u00e9t\u00e9 prise par Stefan Seip, l'un des <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/outreach\/partnerships\/photo-ambassadors.html\">Ambassadeurs photo de l'ESO)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voici le num\u00e9ro du 30 mars 2023 de notre analyse hebdomadaire des risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques ou, plus largement, de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale conventionnelle et non conventionnelle (acc\u00e8s libre). Faites d\u00e9filer vers le bas pour acc\u00e9der \u00e0 l'analyse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que paper.li, la plateforme que nous utilisons pour cr\u00e9er le scan hebdomadaire, fermera le 20 avril 2023, et que les alternatives ne sont pas adapt\u00e9es ou sont payantes, nous ne continuerons pas \u00e0 fournir un scan gratuitement. Contactez nous pour <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/solutions-prospective-strategique-alerte-precoce-geopolitique\/conseil\/expertise-veille-alerte-precoce\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">scans cr\u00e9\u00e9s sp\u00e9cifiquement pour votre organisation<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/11\/10\/rtas-contribution-amrae-50-atout-risk-manager\/\">Contribution de RTAS au num\u00e9ro historique des 50 ans d\u2019Atout Risk Manager de l'AMRAE<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">L'expertise de RTAS mise en avant sur la cha\u00eene de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision italienne LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Au-del\u00e0 de la g\u00e9opolitique : Comprendre les pressions critiques qui remod\u00e8lent notre monde.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e2ce au scan (balayage d'horizon), chaque semaine, nous recueillons des signaux faibles - et moins faibles. Ceux-ci indiquent des probl\u00e8mes nouveaux, \u00e9mergents, en voie d'intensification ou, au contraire, de stabilisation. En cons\u00e9quence, ils indiquent comment les tendances ou les dynamiques \u00e9voluent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comme chaque semaine, sous le scan lui-m\u00eame, nous expliquons bri\u00e8vement ce qu'est le balayage de l'horizon (horizon scanning) et ce que sont les signaux faibles. Les signaux eux-m\u00eames sont donn\u00e9s dans leur langue originale, essentiellement l'anglais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-scan\">Le Scan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull is-light is-repeated\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-white-background-color has-background-dim-80 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div role=\"img\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-21183 is-repeated\" style=\"background-position:50% 50%;background-image:url(https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/lasilla-seip_a.jpg)\"><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/widgets.paper.li\/javascripts\/iframe.min.js\"><\/script><script type=\"text\/javascript\">Paperli.PaperFrame.Show({domain: 'paper.li', pid: '45257e30-82eb-012f-25ad-12313d16b843', width: '100%', height: '100%' })<\/script>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/paper.li\/HLavoix\/1323337992\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">L'analyse du 30 mars 2023\u2192<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"horizon-scanning-weak-signals-and-biases\">Balayage d'horizon (Horizon scanning), signaux faibles et biais<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous caract\u00e9risons des signaux comme faibles, lorsqu'il est encore difficile de les discerner parmi un vaste \u00e9ventail d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements. Cependant, nos biais cognitifs alt\u00e8rent souvent notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 mesurer la force d'un signal. Par cons\u00e9quent, la perception de la force d'un signal variera, en fait, en fonction de la conscience de l'acteur. Au pire, les biais cognitifs peuvent \u00eatre si forts qu'ils bloquent compl\u00e8tement l'identification m\u00eame du signal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le domaine de la prospective et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce strat\u00e9giques, de la pr\u00e9vention et de la gestion des risques, il appartient aux bons analystes de faire des scans ou balayages d'horizon. Ainsi, ils peuvent percevoir et identifier les signaux. Les analystes \u00e9valuent ensuite la force de ces signaux en fonction de risques et de dynamiques sp\u00e9cifiques. Enfin, ils livrent leurs conclusions aux utilisateurs. Ces utilisateurs peuvent \u00eatre d'autres analystes, leur hi\u00e9rarchie ou d'autres d\u00e9cideurs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vous pouvez trouver une explication plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9e dans l'un de nos articles de fond : <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (s&#039;ouvre dans un nouvel onglet)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\" target=\"_blank\">Balayage d'horizon (horizon scanning) et veille pour l'alerte pr\u00e9coce : D\u00e9finition et pratique<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-sections-of-the-scan\">Les sections du scan<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Chaque section se concentre sur les signaux li\u00e9s \u00e0 un th\u00e8me sp\u00e9cifique : <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>monde (politique internationale et g\u00e9opolitique) ; <\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>\u00e9conomie ;<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>la science, y compris l'IA, le QIS, la technologie et les armes, ; <\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>l'analyse, la strat\u00e9gie et l'avenir ; <\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19 ; <\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>l'\u00e9nergie et l'environnement. <\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Cependant, dans un monde complexe, les cat\u00e9gories ne sont qu'un moyen pratique de pr\u00e9senter des informations, alors que faits et \u00e9v\u00e9nements interagissent au-del\u00e0 des fronti\u00e8res.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les informations recueillies (crowdsourcing) ne signifient pas que nous les cautionnons.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity is-style-default\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Image en vedette : Image du Swedish-ESO 15m Submillimeter Telescope (SEST) au centre de recherche de l'ESO. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/images\/lasilla-seip_a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">l'Observatoire de La Silla de l'ESO<\/a>, situ\u00e9 \u00e0 la p\u00e9riph\u00e9rie du d\u00e9sert chilien d'Atacama, \u00e0 600 km au nord de Santiago du Chili et \u00e0 une altitude de 2 400 m\u00e8tres. La photo a \u00e9t\u00e9 prise par Stefan Seip, l'un des&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/outreach\/partnerships\/photo-ambassadors.html\">Ambassadeurs photo de l'ESO)<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(La photo a \u00e9t\u00e9 prise par Stefan Seip, l'un des ambassadeurs photo de l'ESO) Voici le num\u00e9ro du 30 mars 2023 de notre analyse hebdomadaire des risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques ou, plus largement, de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale conventionnelle et non conventionnelle (acc\u00e8s libre). Faites d\u00e9filer vers le bas pour acc\u00e9der \u00e0 l'analyse. Comme paper.li, la plateforme que nous utilisons pour cr\u00e9er ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/03\/30\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Le Red Team Analysis Weekly - 30 mars 2023 \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29105,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3249],"tags":[2560],"class_list":["post-36021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-open-access","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red Team Analysis Weekly \u2013 30 March 2023 &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This is the 30 March 23 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks, conventional and unconventional national and international security.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/03\/30\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Weekly \u2013 30 March 2023 &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is the 30 March 23 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks, conventional and unconventional national and international security.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/03\/30\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-30T15:03:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:10:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/lasilla-seip.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/30\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/30\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The Red Team Analysis Weekly \u2013 30 March 2023\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-30T15:03:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-14T08:10:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/30\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":427,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/30\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/04\\\/lasilla-seip.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Open Access\"],\"articleSection\":[\"The Weekly Scan - Editorial Archives\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/30\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/30\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/30\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-30-march-2023\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Weekly \u2013 30 March 2023 &#8226; 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