{"id":36173,"date":"2023-04-13T18:26:06","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T16:26:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=36173"},"modified":"2023-05-22T12:36:10","modified_gmt":"2023-05-22T10:36:10","slug":"recherche-de-signaux-faibles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/04\/13\/scans-for-weak-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Recherche de signaux faibles"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Une fa\u00e7on de dire au revoir \u00e0 la <a href=\"#weekly\">Hebdomadaire<\/a>! Ne bougez pas, nous travaillons sur quelque chose de nouveau et d'excitant...<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scans et signaux<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'analyse de l'horizon, nous pouvons recueillir p\u00e9riodiquement des signaux faibles - et moins faibles. Ces signaux signalent des probl\u00e8mes nouveaux, \u00e9mergents, qui s'aggravent ou se stabilisent. Ils indiquent ainsi comment les tendances ou les dynamiques ont \u00e9volu\u00e9. Cette collecte de signaux, avec ou sans commentaires, est appel\u00e9e analyse.<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">Les Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb et le transport maritime<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">L'\u00e9trange myst\u00e8re des r\u00e9serves de lithium de la Bolivie<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">VIGILANCE - La guerre en Iran, l'Arabie Saudite et les Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - Le d\u00f4me d'or, une nouvelle fronti\u00e8re technologique<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">Impacts de la menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : l'accord commercial entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l'UE, le Parlement europ\u00e9en et l'avenir de l'Europe<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/01\/28\/signal-chronicles-iran-trump-china\/\">Signal - Mini-Chroniques (11) : L'Iran, Trump et la Chine<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/01\/21\/us-threat-greenland-when-watch\/\">La menace am\u00e9ricaine contre le Groenland : Quand aurions-nous d\u00fb commencer \u00e0 la surveiller ?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les analyses doivent porter sur un th\u00e8me ou une question sp\u00e9cifique. L'\u00e9tendue de l'objectif peut varier en fonction des besoins. La p\u00e9riodicit\u00e9 de la collecte et de la publication variera \u00e9galement en fonction des besoins et de l'objectif.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le domaine de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte, de la gestion des risques et de la prospective, les bons analystes ont pour mission de scruter l'horizon. Il peut ainsi percevoir des signaux. Les analystes \u00e9valuent ensuite la force de ces signaux en fonction de risques et de dynamiques sp\u00e9cifiques. Enfin, ils livrent leurs conclusions aux utilisateurs : l'analyse. Ces utilisateurs peuvent \u00eatre d'autres analystes, des agents ou des d\u00e9cideurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Contactez<\/em><em style=\"font-weight: bold;\"> <\/em><\/strong><em style=\"font-weight: bold;\">nous pour&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/solutions-prospective-strategique-alerte-precoce-geopolitique\/conseil\/expertise-veille-alerte-precoce\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">scans cr\u00e9\u00e9s sp\u00e9cifiquement pour votre organisation<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"horizon-scanning-weak-signals-and-biases\">Les signaux \"faibles\", la force des signaux et leur pertinence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous caract\u00e9risons des signaux comme faibles, lorsqu'il est encore difficile de les discerner parmi un vaste \u00e9ventail d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements. Cependant, nos biais cognitifs alt\u00e8rent souvent notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 mesurer la force d'un signal. Par cons\u00e9quent, la perception de la force d'un signal variera, en fait, en fonction de la conscience de l'acteur. Au pire, les biais cognitifs peuvent \u00eatre si forts qu'ils bloquent compl\u00e8tement l'identification m\u00eame du signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De plus en plus, on peut s'interroger sur la pertinence de l'id\u00e9e de \"signaux faibles\" dans notre monde. <a href=\"https:\/\/bigthink.com\/surprising-science\/in-1973-an-mit-computer-predicted-the-end-of-civilization-so-far-its-on-target\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de la pr\u00e9voyance du MIT\/Club de Rome 1973<\/a> sur la durabilit\u00e9 de notre monde, pouvons-nous vraiment encore oser dire qu'il s'agit d'un signal faible concernant la catastrophe mondiale imminente - ou d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9sente - en termes de durabilit\u00e9 ? En 1973, c'\u00e9tait un signal faible, mais aujourd'hui ? \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que tant de personnes ne pr\u00eatent pas vraiment attention au-del\u00e0 de l'\u00e9coblanchiment, des r\u00e9unions interminables et des mesures inefficaces par rapport \u00e0 ce qui serait n\u00e9cessaire, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 qu'il n'y a manifestement pas de v\u00e9ritable action g\u00e9n\u00e9ratrice de prise de conscience, les avertissements d\u00e9sastreux peuvent-ils encore \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme un signal faible ? Quelle doit \u00eatre la force d'un signal pour qu'il soit pris en compte en tant que signal ou, mieux encore, en tant qu'avertissement ? Une partie de la r\u00e9ponse se trouve peut-\u00eatre dans l'id\u00e9e de <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2011\/09\/14\/revisiter-opportunit%c3%a9-pour-prospective-prospective\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">actualit\u00e9<\/a>Mais si personne ne veut agir, la rapidit\u00e9 d'ex\u00e9cution ne devient-elle pas elle aussi obsol\u00e8te ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vous trouverez une explication m\u00e9thodologique plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9e dans l'un de nos articles phares :&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Balayage d'horizon (horizon scanning) et veille pour l'alerte pr\u00e9coce : D\u00e9finition et pratique<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"weekly\">Qu'est-il advenu du Red Team Analysis Weekly ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis 2011, nous effectuons une analyse hebdomadaire qui est publi\u00e9e en compl\u00e9ment sur le site web de Red Team Analysis. Elle portait sur les risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques ou, plus largement, sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale conventionnelle et non conventionnelle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il s'agit d'une exp\u00e9rience de crowdsourcing utilisant les r\u00e9seaux sociaux, principalement les r\u00e9seaux sociaux de l'UE. <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a> et parfois <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Facebook<\/a>. Pour \u00e9viter une surcharge d'informations, nous avons opt\u00e9 pour une analyse hebdomadaire plut\u00f4t que quotidienne. L'exp\u00e9rience \u00e9tant concluante, nous avons continu\u00e9 \u00e0 publier le scan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, Paper.li, la plateforme que nous avons utilis\u00e9e pour cr\u00e9er l'analyse hebdomadaire, a cess\u00e9 d'utiliser toutes les sources le 6 avril 2023 et a d\u00e9finitivement ferm\u00e9 ses portes le 20 avril 2023. Les alternatives ne sont pas adapt\u00e9es \u00e0 l'acc\u00e8s libre et aux analyses gratuites.<strong><em> <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les archives n'\u00e9tant pas non plus conserv\u00e9es par paper.li, nous avons choisi de supprimer tous les messages connexes qui ne contenaient rien d'autre que l'analyse elle-m\u00eame, et de rediriger les lecteurs vers cette page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Image en vedette : Image du Swedish-ESO 15m Submillimeter Telescope (SEST) au centre de recherche de l'ESO.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/images\/lasilla-seip_a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">l'Observatoire de La Silla de l'ESO<\/a>, situ\u00e9 \u00e0 la p\u00e9riph\u00e9rie du d\u00e9sert chilien d'Atacama, \u00e0 600 km au nord de Santiago du Chili et \u00e0 une altitude de 2 400 m\u00e8tres. La photo a \u00e9t\u00e9 prise par Stefan Seip, l'un des\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eso.org\/public\/outreach\/partnerships\/photo-ambassadors.html\">Ambassadeurs photo de l'ESO)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une fa\u00e7on de dire au revoir \u00e0 l'Hebdo ! Ne bougez pas, nous travaillons sur quelque chose de nouveau et d'excitant... Analyses et signaux Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'analyse de l'horizon, nous pouvons collecter p\u00e9riodiquement des signaux faibles - et moins faibles. Ces signaux signalent des probl\u00e8mes nouveaux, \u00e9mergents, qui s'aggravent ou se stabilisent. Ils indiquent donc comment les tendances ou les dynamiques ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/04\/13\/scans-for-weak-signals\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Recherche de signaux faibles \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29105,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2860,2479],"tags":[1789,1224,886,1214,2549,44,133],"class_list":["post-36173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-monitoring-and-warning","tag-featured","tag-horizon-scanning","tag-scan","tag-scanning-tool","tag-signal","tag-the-red-team-analysis-weekly","tag-weak-signal","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scans for Weak Signals &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/04\/13\/recherche-de-signaux-faibles\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scans for Weak Signals &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A way to say good bye to the Weekly! Stay put, we are working on something new and exciting\u2026 Scans and signals Using horizon scanning, periodically, we can collect weak \u2013 and less weak \u2013 signals. The signals point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. 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