{"id":37191,"date":"2023-05-17T12:08:58","date_gmt":"2023-05-17T10:08:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=37191"},"modified":"2026-08-13T10:47:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T08:47:10","slug":"explorer-impacts-en-cascade-avec-ia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/05\/17\/exploring-cascading-impacts-with-ai\/","title":{"rendered":"Explorer les impacts en cascade avec l'IA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Evaluating possible impacts is a key component of strategic foresight, early warning and risk management. It is crucial in strategy and, as a result, for strategic planning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Go directly to Pithia<\/a> to explore cascading impacts.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Pithia<\/em><\/strong> <\/td>		Initiation, exploration<\/td>Define your concern, scenario and image<\/a>
Cascading impacts<\/a><\/td><\/tr>
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Calvin<\/em><\/strong> <\/a><\/td>		Advanced<\/td>Indicators, drivers, factors, variables, causal links, models, and graphs.<\/td><\/tr>
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Kai<\/em><\/strong> <\/a><\/a><\/a><\/td>		Advanced<\/td>Scenarios narratives<\/td><\/tr>
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Regina<\/em><\/strong> <\/a><\/a><\/td>		Science<\/td>Geopolitics, international relations, political science<\/a> <\/td><\/tr>
\"\"<\/a>Sphinx<\/em><\/strong><\/td>Biases<\/td>Challenge your assumptions and beliefs, devil’s advocate<\/a><\/td><\/tr>
Tip<\/td><\/td>7 Tips for Effective Communication with Chat AI Assistants<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Very often we limit ourselves to thinking about the direct impacts of an action or of an event. Yet, impacts, most of the time, go on. We face cascading effects. For an event, a decision, we thus should consider first the direct impacts, then the second-order impacts (the direct impacts of the direct impacts), then the third-order impacts… until the nth-order impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of strategic foresight and early warning, the capacity to explore these nth order impacts is in-built into the use of a proper model. However this assume that such a model has been developed (see our related training course<\/a> and how our AI assistant Calvin<\/a> can help you in this regard), which is not always the case. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an introduction to the importance of considering cascading impacts, we created an AI-powered form that allows you to explore some direct, second and third-order effects for an event or decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"Pithia assists you in exploring 1st, 2d and 3rd-order impacts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Identify the primary decision or event and its context: the basis for your scenarios<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Start by clearly defining the primary decision or event that serves as the basis for your scenarios. You can add context or constraints to obtain something more interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, the primary event, decision or objective could be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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An EU’s pro-Taiwan stance within the context of Europe’s need for critical commodities.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

or more simply US default on its debt<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

or Very rapid (less than 6 months) adoption of a generalised use of generative IA across companies, NGOs, governments, administrations and public services in the Western world<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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Determine the immediate or first-order effects<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Use the AI assistant to identify direct and immediate effects of the primary decision or event. These effects should be directly attributable to the chosen objective or event. Find out what some of these effects could be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Explore second-order effects<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Next, consider the ripple effects or consequences that arise as a result of the immediate effects. These are the second-order effects. They may emerge as a response or consequence of the immediate effects. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among those suggested by the AI, choose the immediate or direct effect you wish to explore, cut and paste it in the field below, amend it as you wish. You can also add a direct effect that was not mentioned by the IA. For example, your input could be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EU’s pro-Taiwan stance: Improved European access to Taiwanese critical commodities: Taiwan is a key producer of critical commodities such as semiconductors and rare earth elements. The EU’s pro-Taiwan stance will improve access to these commodities, which are essential for European defense capabilities.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US default: Internationally, there would be a shift away from the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Generative IA adoption: Massive loss of jobs for humans<\/em>. In general higher paid jobs would be more impacted than lower paid manual jobs notably of a craftsmanship type.<\/em> The effect could be aggravated by the speedy adoption of AI, which would not give people enough time to adjust to the changes<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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Discover third-order effects<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Repeat the process by identifying additional effects that stem from the second-order effects. These effects should be logical extensions of the second-order impacts, considering the evolving dynamics and interdependencies between various factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Choose the second-order effect you wish to explore, cut and paste it in the field below, amend it as you wish. For example, your input could be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EU’s pro-Taiwan stance: An increase in competition among other global players who rely on these Taiwanese critical commodities.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. default: Significant diminution of the geopolitical power of the U.S.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Generative IA adoption: The employment situation could further exacerbate the already existing wealth gap between different groups in the society <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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Tips<\/strong>:<\/em> Try! The first 6 queries (across all our AI assistants) are complimentary.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For guests<\/em>: in a form (Pithia), one click on submit [red button] = 1 query – In a chat (Aria, Calvin, Kai, Regina, Sphinx), 1 question and 1 answer = 2 queries<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are currently reviewing the access to our AI assistants. Contact us<\/a> if you have special needs or want to be kept in the loop for new developments.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Tips<\/strong>: Training and examples<\/strong>
We trained and tested the AI many times, notably on three issues. These are used as examples to guide you in the AI form. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. An EU’s pro-Taiwan stance within the context of Europe’s need for critical commodities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. U.S. defaults on its debt.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Very rapid (less than 6 months) adoption of a generalised use of generative IA across companies, NGOs, governments, administrations and public services in the Western world.
    We pasted below the answers we received for     this third example<\/a>, with comments, considering the wide-ranging effects. The results the AI gives us are just elements of cascading impacts. A proper and real strategic foresight and early waning work should be built on a fully developed model.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Nota: This is an experiment with varying results. Some results given by the AI were excellent, others were less so. For example, it seems that the AI provided best results first. Then, if one asked the same question again, the results obtained did not improve massively or could even be less interesting. Comments and discussions on the results you obtained are welcome!<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

    What about impacts further away?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Identify 4th to nth order effects<\/h3>\n\n\n