{"id":37802,"date":"2026-04-09T17:57:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T15:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=37802"},"modified":"2026-06-18T18:43:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:43:09","slug":"audela-geopolitique-pressions-critiques","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/","title":{"rendered":"Au-del\u00e0 de la g\u00e9opolitique : Comprendre les pressions critiques qui remod\u00e8lent notre monde."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">(Art direction and design:<a href=\"https:\/\/jdlavoixcarli.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.7em\"><em>Originally published 9 October 2023, under the title &#8220;How to Create New Civilizations (1)? Challenges and Pressures<\/em>&#8220;<em>. Significantly revised and updated for our Featured Insight series.<\/em><br>Time to read: 13 to 19 minutes<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first decades of the 21st century present human societies with many challenges. At times, it appears our very civilizations are at stake. Can we create new better-adapted civilizations? What are the alternatives? What can we learn from the works that have examined the history of civilisations?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Between the two world wars of the 20th century, British historian Arnold Toynbee wrote such a masterful history of civilizations in 12 volumes, published in 1934 and 1939 for the first 6 volumes, then between 1954 and 1961 for the last ones: Arnold Toynbee, <em>A Study of History<\/em>, Oxford University Press, 1934 [tomes 1-3], 1939 [tomes 4-6], 1954 [tomes 7-10], 1959 [tome 11], 1961 [tome 12]. In 1946, D. C. Somervell, also a British historian, published an abridged version of the first 6 volumes (the second part was published in 1957). This is the work we shall use here: D. C. Somervell,\u00a0<em>A Study of History: Abridgement of Vols I-VI<\/em>, with a preface by Toynbee, Oxford University Press 1946.<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">The Strange Mystery of Bolivia&#8217;s Lithium Reserves<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">WATCH OUT &#8211; The Iran War, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Illustration by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/12\/chronicles-hyperwar-ai-new-energy-frontier-1\/\">Chronicles of the Hyperwar &#8211; AI: AI, the New Energy Frontier (1)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL &#8211; The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Toynbee&#8217;s work was acclaimed when it was published but has long fallen into quasi oblivion, while it was also criticised. Students and researchers mention it, but few have read it, would it be only the abridged version. Yet.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this series of articles, we present Toynbee&#8217;s argument on the life and fate of civilizations, moving from petrification to genesis or disappearance, from genesis to growth or break down, from break down to petrification or disintegration, and finally back to genesis or disappearance. We highlight corresponding examples and cases for our 21st century world and stress lessons we could learn from Toynbee.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After explaining briefly how a new civilization emerges, this first article focuses on one of the two series of factors that are necessary for the genesis of a civilization: challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A brief outline of genesis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Toynbee, the best unit of analysis to understand history is &#8220;societies&#8221;, understood as wholes. It is neither nations, states nor nation-states. As examples, Toynbee gives, among others, the Hellenic society, the &#8220;Orthodox Christian, the Islamic, the Hindu and the Far Eastern Societies&#8221;, etc. (p. 567).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to him, &#8220;civilized societies&#8221; or civilizations are born out of &#8220;primitive societies&#8221;, which had become static. These &#8220;higher civilizations&#8221; are less numerous but usually far larger than their primitive ancestors. Then, some of these &#8220;civilised societies&#8221;, in turn, became static and evolved &#8211; or not &#8211; into newer societies or civilizations. For example, the Orthodox Christian society and the Western Christian society evolved out of the Graeco-Roman or Hellenic society (this does not of course rule out other types of inputs). As another example, the Hindu society evolved out of an Indic society (pp. 35-36, 12-15, 20-21; pp.567-568).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hence, Toynbee argues that, in the course of their lives, civilizations tend to petrify, to become static. Then, pressures and challenges may provide the static society with a stimulus that allows to overcome petrification and to become dynamic anew. In that case, we have the creation of a new civilization, a genesis. This process, however, is not a fatality. The initial civilization may fail to answer properly the challenge faced and succumb (pp. 48-163). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As highlighted by the historian, being able to move out of petrification towards dynamism depends upon two factors, or rather a factor and a process (Ibid.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, a challenge, which creates a pressure, needs to be overcome. The existence of this challenge and its strength\u00a0will determine the outcome: i.e. genesis of a new civilization or disappearance of the petrified civilization (Ibid.). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second (<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2024\/01\/15\/new-civilizations-creation-mimesis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">next article<\/a>), what matters is the process of response to the challenge. Its success or failure in eliciting the proper answer will lead to various outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Challenges and their strength<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The &#8220;Golden Mean&#8221;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First of all, Toynbee points out that the challenges and pressures must be neither too weak nor too severe, but have a medium intensity he calls the &#8220;Golden Mean&#8221; (pp. 140-163). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, letting aside for now an in-depth discussion on the state of our civilization, or civilizations, if we think about today&#8217;s climate change&#8217;s immense challenge, we may imagine that the initial impacts brought about by the first 0.5\u00b0C of temperature rise above pre-industrial average were not enough to constitute a pressure for stimulus leading to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unfortunately, the cumulated effects over time of a certain level of temperature rise &#8211; to be determined &#8211; might also prove too much. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In between, we may hope that a &#8220;golden mean&#8221; temperature increase will be achieved, which will generate the ideal stimulus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Which &#8220;Golden Mean&#8221;?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the difficulties here resides in evaluating the strength of the pressure, when looking at the future. In our example, which level of temperature rise would constitute too severe a pressure and which level would be the &#8220;Golden Mean&#8221;?&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It would appear logical that the strength of the pressure varies according to previous achievements of a civilization. What may have been a perfect challenge for an early civilization, may not be anymore a challenge at all for current civilizations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, facing a temperate climate with four seasons forces inhabitants, for instance, to anticipate and plan ahead, to develop storage facilities to be able to survive during winter and early spring months. However, for early 21st century civilizations, a temperate climate does not constitute anymore a challenge with related strong stimulus. This will be true as long as we can benefit from the thousands of years of achievements across all fields that allowed us to overcome the pressure stemming from a temperate climate. Nonetheless, we should neither discard nor forget this initial challenge. Indeed, current civilizations could, because of other challenges and processes, internal and external, end up losing what they achieved. In that case, the initial challenge that was not operating anymore would become salient again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What has been close to happen in Europe during the winter 2022-2023 could constitute an example for this case. Faced with skyrocketing electricity prices owing to the war in Ukraine, the obvious and usual way to handle both winter time and goods production suddenly became far from being that obvious and led to series of challenges long forgotten. Similarly, the US-Israel war against Iran and the related energy shock can lead to the return of old challenges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What could be happening with the impacts of climate change, for example in terms of extreme weather events, would, similarly, question the way we have learned to handle temperate climate after millennia of experience. First, the old temperate climate may be gone, which would question the relevance of experience and achievements. Second, the habit to &#8220;just rely&#8221; on consumer goods being always available in shops and supermarkets may become obsolete, if and when supply chains break down. In that case, as consumers have been so spoiled most only know how to shop, then the ways of life allowing for survival will have to be reinvented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As another example, following the end of World War II then of the Cold War, many came to believe that war on the territory of geographical Europe had become impossible. The war in Ukraine showed us otherwise. War does not disappear because we have a long period of peace nor because ideology wants it. The COVID 19 pandemic is also another example of a past known pressure that initially was met with disbelief, because it was unthinkable our 21st century world would know such a thing as a global pandemic.<sup id=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-1\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--hover-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"1\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-1\">1<\/a><\/sup><span role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"1\">e.g. Helene Lavoix, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/12\/coronavirus-covid-19-epidemic-outbreak-not-only-about-new-virus\/\">The Coronavirus COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak is Not Only about a New Virus<\/a>&#8220;, RTAS, 12 Feb 2020.<\/span> It nevertheless took place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We can find many other examples of such return of the unthinkable, with impact on the challenges faced and their level of intensity: Could the post-1945 UN base international order disappear? U.S. President Trump&#8217;s actions show that it is indeed possible. Could alliances that were believed to be engraved in stone change, evolve or even die? Again, U.S. President Trump&#8217;s actions &#8211; from <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2026\/01\/21\/us-threat-greenland-when-watch\/\">Greenland<\/a>&#8216;s to <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">insults against Saudi Arabia&#8217;s Crown Prince<\/a>, or against Europe &#8211; show that it is totally possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even though for a very long time a challenge and pressure have existed at an extremely low level of intensity, it does not mean that they are gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the intensity of the challenge is dynamically relative to the achievements of a civilization. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, we may deduce from Toynbee&#8217;s argument that the series of challenges and pressures that befall a society at the same time must not be cumulatively too severe nor too weak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, could the early 21st century civilizations face at the same time the impacts of climate change with 1.5\u00b0C of temperature rise, a world war and a pandemic more deadly than the COVID-19?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Five types of challenges and pressures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having highlighted the importance of the relative strength of the pressure, Toynbee identifies five types of challenges that may lead to a stimulus capable of generating an answer that lifts a civilization out of its petrification. The stimulus and resulting response, then, should allow the society to become dynamic again, developing highest achievements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hard countries &#8211; climate change again<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, we have &#8220;hard countries&#8221;, i.e. a geographical and ecological environment that is hard and challenging for human beings, yet within the bounds of the &#8220;Golden Mean&#8221; (pp.88-98).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We can use again the example given above of climate change. In that light, and assuming we, as a species, survive, climate change and its impact on our environment could be seen as an opportunity. This would demand, however, that we make sure to keep the challenge of the resulting environment within the &#8220;Golden Mean&#8221;.&nbsp;&nbsp;In that case, we could create new, better or higher civilizations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New grounds &#8211; the case for outer space<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, Toynbee stresses the importance of &#8220;new grounds&#8221;. He means that for a society to have to live or travel lengthily in new unfamiliar environments, in new spaces, generates challenges that are fruitful if their strength is located within the &#8220;Golden Mean&#8221; (pp. 99-107).<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"The image depicts how war could be chosen by some states to reduce CO2 emissions and finally lead to a recovery of nature.\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/RTAS-Carbon-budget-war.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2023\/09\/19\/climate-breakdown-towards-war-to-reduce-co2-emissions\/\">Climate Breakdown: Towards War to Reduce CO2 Emissions?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1536x921.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-16x10.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941.jpg 1569w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/06\/21\/the-ultimate-key-technologies-of-the-future-3-extreme-environments\/\">The Ultimate Key Technologies of the Future (3) &#8211; Extreme Environments<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1536x921.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-16x10.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941.jpg 1569w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/06\/14\/the-key-technologies-of-the-future-2-evolution\/\">The Key Technologies of the Future (2) &#8211; Evolution<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1536x921.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-16x10.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/landscape-1328858-1568-941.jpg 1569w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2021\/06\/07\/the-key-technologies-of-the-future-chapter-1\/\">The Key Technologies of the Future (1)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A 21st century example of such a &#8220;new ground&#8221;s&#8221; could be outer space. The efforts endeavoured by humanity to discover and understand outer space and then to travel there, whatever the goal, correspond perfectly to Toynbee&#8217;s challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Feats such as China&#8217;s successful testing\u00a0in August 2023 of\u00a0science experiment facilities aboard China&#8217;s Tiangong space station &#8211; completed at the end of 2022, India&#8217;s landing on the south pole of the Moon on 23 August 2023, the American NASA\u2019s OSIRIS-REx mission return with asteroid Bennu samples on 24 September 2023, and Chinese-led or American-led plans for unmanned and manned lunar exploration and exploitation are concrete examples of the efforts taking place in this &#8220;new ground&#8221;.<sup id=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-2\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--hover-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"2\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-2\">2<\/a><\/sup><span role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"2\">Deng Xiaoci, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202308\/1297194.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China space station\u00a0experiment facilities complete testing, ready to support large-scale research projects<\/a>&#8220;, <em>Global Times<\/em>, 29 August 2023; Mariel Borowitz, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/indias-chandrayaan-3-landed-on-the-south-pole-of-the-moon-a-space-policy-expert-explains-what-this-means-for-india-and-the-global-race-to-the-moon-212171\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">India\u2019s\u00a0Chandrayaan-3\u00a0landed on the south pole of the Moon \u2212 a space policy expert explains what this means for India and the global race to the\u00a0Moon<\/a>&#8220;, <em>The Conversation<\/em>, 24 August 2023; <em>Reuters<\/em>, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/space\/china-offers-collaborate-lunar-mission-deadlines-loom-2023-10-03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China offers to collaborate on lunar mission as deadlines loom<\/a>&#8220;, 3 October 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alongside these material endeavours, we find attempts to regulate human activities in space or part of it, starting with the Outer Space Treaty of 1967.\u00a0On 13 October 2020, the American launched the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/artemis-accords\/\">Artemis Accords<\/a>\u00a0(&#8220;Principles for Cooperation in the Civil Exploration and Use of the Moon, Mars, Comets, and Asteroids for Peaceful Purposes&#8221;). In September 2023, Germany became the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/united-states-welcomes-germanys-signing-of-the-artemis-accords\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">29<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0nation to sign it<\/a>. As of May\u00a02025, 55 states have signed the Accords.<sup id=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-3\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--hover-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"3\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-3\">3<\/a><\/sup><span role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"3\">U.S. State Department, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/artemis-accords\/\">Artemis Accords<\/a>.<\/span> Perceiving the Artemis Accords as a way to project American domination and order in space, China countered with an all-encompassing &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.gov.cn\/eng\/zy\/gb\/202405\/t20240531_11367498.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Proposal of the People\u2019s Republic of China\u2002on the Reform and Development of Global Governance<\/a>&#8220;, notably &#8220;to prevent new \u2018new frontiers\u2019 from militarization caused by major power competition.<sup id=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-4\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--hover-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"4\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-4\">4<\/a><\/sup><span role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"4\">Yang Sheng<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>and Zhang Yuying, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202309\/1298153.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China issues proposal on reform, devt of global governance<\/a>&#8220;, 13 September 2023, <em>Global Times<\/em>.<\/span> Incidentally, the Chinese new frontiers include &#8220;The deep sea, polar regions, outer space, cyberspace and digital technology and artificial intelligence (AI)&#8221;.<sup id=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-5\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--hover-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"5\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-5\">5<\/a><\/sup><span role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"5\">&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.gov.cn\/eng\/zy\/gb\/202405\/t20240531_11367498.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Proposal of the People\u2019s Republic of China\u2002on the Reform and Development of Global Governance<\/a>&#8220;<\/span>. They may all be seen as &#8220;new grounds&#8221;. Note that the Chinese new frontiers almost perfectly correspond to what we call extreme environments (see portal to <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/02\/15\/portal-to-extreme-environment-security\/\">Extreme Environments Security<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Activities in outer space and attempts at regulating them start outlining an original response to the challenge of outer space for human beings. That early answer could have the potential to pave the way for a new civilization, following Toynbee&#8217;s &#8220;new grounds&#8221; type of challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sudden blow &#8211; The other side of the military defeat of enemies<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Toynbee, a &#8220;sudden crushing defeat&#8221; can &#8220;generate a&nbsp;stimulus for the defeated party.&#8221; The author refers to war (pp. 108-111). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of Toynbee&#8217;s examples is the rise of Prussia. Following the defeats of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/event\/Battle-of-Jena\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jena<\/a>&nbsp;(1806) and notably the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/event\/Napoleonic-Wars\/The-winter-campaign-of-1806-07-Eylau#ref336857\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">treaties of Tilsit<\/a> (1807) during the Napoleonic wars, Prussia found the energy and way to totally regenerate its army, administration and educational system. As a result, it became far stronger and &#8220;the chosen vessel for the new wine of German nationalism&#8221; (p.110).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tentatively, a potential example for the early 21st century of a &#8220;sudden crushing defeat&#8221; could be, for Armenia, the dissolution of the separatist government of Nagorno-Karabakh according to a 20 September 2023 agreement, and the resulting massive exodus, after\u00a0Azerbaijan&#8217;s lightning offensive on 19 September 23.<sup id=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-6\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--hover-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"6\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-6\">6<\/a><\/sup><span role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"6\">e.g. France 24 &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20230928-more-than-65-000-flee-nagorno-karabakh-separatist-republic-will-cease-to-exist\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nagorno-Karabakh announces dissolution as more than 75,000 flee separatist enclave<\/a>&#8220;, 28 September 2023; Masha Gessen, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/our-columnists\/the-violent-end-of-nagorno-karabakhs-fight-for-independence\">The Violent End of Nagorno-Karabakh\u2019s Fight for Independence<\/a>&#8220;, <em>The New Yorker<\/em>, 29 September 2023.<\/span> Without hindsight though, it is impossible to know if we are indeed in a case relevant for Toynbee. What we may say is that a potential is there, despite the tragedy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As another example, should a war take place between China and the U.S., the victorious country might well give its enemy a stimulus for achieving a newer and better civilization.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, should Ukraine and NATO or then Ukraine and the EU have defeated Russia in Ukraine, then the result could have been to provide Russia with a stimulus &#8211; according to the strength of the pressure &#8211; to launch a string of further in-depth reforms that would potentially make it far stronger.\u00a0The alternative holds also potentially true, should a defeat of Ukraine and the EU against Russia be finally acknowledged in a peace treaty. It could potentially provide the EU with a stimulus for in-depth reforms (including political organisation) making it stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Continuous external pressure &#8211; Another look at migrants&#8217; routes?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the idea of a &#8220;continuous external pressure&#8221;, Toynbee refers to people who are inhabiting the margins or frontiers areas of a territory and, as a result, are submitted to constant pressures and attacks from other peoples. According to him, this type of constant pressure generates the stimulus necessary for a better development (pp. 111-125).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tentatively, even though the circumstances are far from being similar to those described by Toynbee, we may imagine that areas constantly confronted to flows of migrants may constitute a kind of 21st century frontiers areas.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the case of the Mediterranean sea, the frontiers areas would be largely located as displayed on the Reliefweb\/OCHA maps below, not only at arrival but also departure points:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1564\" height=\"1084\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43707\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025.jpg 1564w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025-433x300.jpg 433w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025-1358x941.jpg 1358w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025-768x532.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025-1536x1065.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025-1320x915.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025-250x173.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/migrants-arrival-to-europe-2025-1038x719.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1564px) 100vw, 1564px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><br>International Organization for Migration (IOM), Feb 27 2026. DTM Europe \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/dtm.iom.int\/reports\/europe-mixed-migration-flows-europe-yearly-overview-2025\">Mixed Migration Flows to Europe, Yearly Overview (2025)<\/a>. IOM, Europe and Central Asia. &#8211; Map 1: Arrivals in Europe, Jan\u2013Dec 2025, p.6<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, in the Americas, frontiers areas could be found along the main routes, their cities and border points (see maps below from the IOM, <em>Migration Trends in the Americas, Global Compact for Migration<\/em>, <a href=\"https:\/\/rosanjose.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1446\/files\/documents\/2023-03\/Migration%20Trends%20in%20the%20Americas%20EN%20Feb%202023%20%281%29.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Feb 2023<\/a> and  <a href=\"https:\/\/rosanjose.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1446\/files\/documents\/2023-09\/en_tendencias_marzo_junio_2023_vf.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">March June 2023<\/a>):<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/all-migration-flows-2022-23-americas.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"792\" height=\"612\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/all-migration-flows-2022-23-americas.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-37852\" style=\"width:595px;height:undefinedpx\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/all-migration-flows-2022-23-americas.jpg 792w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/all-migration-flows-2022-23-americas-388x300.jpg 388w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/all-migration-flows-2022-23-americas-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/all-migration-flows-2022-23-americas-16x12.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/all-migration-flows-2022-23-americas-250x193.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 792px) 100vw, 792px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rosanjose.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1446\/files\/documents\/2023-03\/Migration%20Trends%20in%20the%20Americas%20EN%20Feb%202023%20%281%29.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Recent Migration Flows in the Americas<\/a> in IOM l MIGRATION TRENDS IN THE AMERICAS | FEBRUARY 2023, p.21<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/key-routes-americas-june-2023.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"1202\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/key-routes-americas-june-2023.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-37850\" style=\"width:595px;height:undefinedpx\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/key-routes-americas-june-2023.jpg 950w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/key-routes-americas-june-2023-237x300.jpg 237w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/key-routes-americas-june-2023-744x941.jpg 744w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/key-routes-americas-june-2023-768x972.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/key-routes-americas-june-2023-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/key-routes-americas-june-2023-250x316.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rosanjose.iom.int\/sites\/g\/files\/tmzbdl1446\/files\/documents\/2023-09\/en_tendencias_marzo_junio_2023_vf.pdf\">Key routes for Venezuelan Migration in the Americas<\/a> in MIGRATION TRENDS IN THE AMERICAS IOM OFFICES IN THE AMERICAS MARCH-JUNE 2023 (pdf), p. 2<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Penalizations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Toynbee, the factor he names &#8220;penalizations&#8221; refers to groups of people who have suffered centuries of exclusion at the hand of others. He states that this &#8220;penalization&#8221; may lead those who suffer it to put exceptional energy and creativity in the only avenues open to them. In turn, this may lead to the development of higher and newer societies or civilizations (pp. 125-139).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the examples Toynbee provides is the &#8220;hordes of slaves&#8221; imported by Rome in the last two century B.C. out of which arose the &#8220;Freedmen&#8221; as well as Christianity (pp. 126-128; p.572).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the 21st century, everything being equal, we may wonder if those who were left behind during now more than a century of urbanization consequent to industrialisation may not be considered as somehow &#8220;penalized.&#8221; Possibly, the rural migrants could also be considered as &#8220;penalized&#8221; in Toynbee&#8217;s meaning. However, in this later case, as rural migrants adapt and integrate, the penalization may not last long enough to truly create the conditions of pressure for stimulus described by Toynbee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As another example, peoples who have yet to be recognised as such and did not succeed in getting a state on their own, such as, for example, the Kurds, who are spread over four countries (Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria), could also be candidates, potentially, for experiencing the penalization factor of Toynbee. The disparity of the Kurdish situations according to each of the four countries where they live shows the difficulty of applying the idea of &#8220;penalization&#8221; to a &#8220;people&#8221; without a thorough analysis. Beforehand, specific analyses should be done accounting notably for the birth and development of an &#8220;imagined community&#8221;, to borrow from Benedict Anderson (<em>Imagined Communities<\/em>, Verso: 1991). Nonetheless, the interesting ideas that were promoted by the Syrian Kurds in terms of economic and political development are a signal of the novelty and energy that tragic pressure may generate.<sup id=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-7\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote modern-footnotes-footnote--hover-on-desktop \" data-mfn=\"7\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-7\">7<\/a><\/sup><span role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"7\">H. Lavoix, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/05\/22\/the-kurds-in-syria-state-building-new-model-and-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Kurds in Syria \u2013 State-Building, New Model and War<\/a>&#8220;, 22 May\u00a0201<\/span>7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator aligncenter has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To summarize, Toynbee presents five types of challenges which, according to the strength of the pressure generated, may create a stimulus that favours the creation of new civilizations. In the first decades of the 21st century, such challenges are present and often acute, globally and locally. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How can populations build upon the stimulus triggered and turn it into an adequate response thereby building new civilizations? This is what we shall explore with the <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2024\/01\/15\/new-civilizations-creation-mimesis\/\">second article of this series<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-context=\"{}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/query\" data-wp-key=\"9\" data-wp-router-region=\"query-9\" class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"wp-block-post-template is-layout-flow wp-block-post-template-is-layout-flow\"><li data-wp-key=\"post-template-item-37802\" class=\"wp-block-post post-37802 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-climate-change-planetary-boundaries-geopolitics category-extreme-environments-security category-future-wars category-new-paradigm tag-civilisation tag-featured tag-featured-insight-1 tag-open-access entry\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center has-small-font-size is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\"><figure class=\"aligncenter wp-block-post-featured-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\" target=\"_blank\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1568\" height=\"941\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-post-image\" alt=\"Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World.\" style=\"height:auto;width:150px;object-fit:cover;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:75%\"><h2 style=\"font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:300\" class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\" target=\"_self\" >Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World.<\/a><\/h2><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/li><li data-wp-key=\"post-template-item-37889\" class=\"wp-block-post post-37889 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-climate-change-planetary-boundaries-geopolitics category-featured category-new-paradigm tag-civilisation tag-climate-change tag-featured tag-high-tech tag-open-access tag-u-s entry\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center has-small-font-size is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\"><figure class=\"aligncenter wp-block-post-featured-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2024\/01\/15\/new-civilizations-creation-mimesis\/\" target=\"_blank\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1796\" height=\"941\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-post-image\" alt=\"How to Create New Civilizations (2)? Creation and Mimesis\" style=\"height:auto;width:150px;object-fit:cover;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization.jpeg 1796w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization-500x262.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization-1568x822.jpeg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization-768x402.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization-1536x805.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization-18x9.jpeg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization-1320x692.jpeg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization-250x131.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Creation-new-civilization-1038x544.jpeg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:75%\"><h2 style=\"font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:300\" class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2024\/01\/15\/new-civilizations-creation-mimesis\/\" target=\"_self\" >How to Create New Civilizations (2)? Creation and Mimesis<\/a><\/h2><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n<h2 class=\"modern-footnotes-list-heading \">Notes<\/h2><ul class=\"modern-footnotes-list \"><li id=\"footnote-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-1\"><span>1<\/span><div>e.g. Helene Lavoix, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/02\/12\/coronavirus-covid-19-epidemic-outbreak-not-only-about-new-virus\/\">The Coronavirus COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak is Not Only about a New Virus<\/a>&#8220;, RTAS, 12 Feb 2020. <a href=\"#mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-1\" class=\"modern-footnotes-scroll-to-footnote\" aria-label=\"Back to reference 1 in text\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/div><\/li><li id=\"footnote-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-2\"><span>2<\/span><div>Deng Xiaoci, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202308\/1297194.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China space station\u00a0experiment facilities complete testing, ready to support large-scale research projects<\/a>&#8220;, <em>Global Times<\/em>, 29 August 2023; Mariel Borowitz, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/indias-chandrayaan-3-landed-on-the-south-pole-of-the-moon-a-space-policy-expert-explains-what-this-means-for-india-and-the-global-race-to-the-moon-212171\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">India\u2019s\u00a0Chandrayaan-3\u00a0landed on the south pole of the Moon \u2212 a space policy expert explains what this means for India and the global race to the\u00a0Moon<\/a>&#8220;, <em>The Conversation<\/em>, 24 August 2023; <em>Reuters<\/em>, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/space\/china-offers-collaborate-lunar-mission-deadlines-loom-2023-10-03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China offers to collaborate on lunar mission as deadlines loom<\/a>&#8220;, 3 October 2023. <a href=\"#mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-2\" class=\"modern-footnotes-scroll-to-footnote\" aria-label=\"Back to reference 2 in text\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/div><\/li><li id=\"footnote-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-3\"><span>3<\/span><div>U.S. State Department, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/artemis-accords\/\">Artemis Accords<\/a>. <a href=\"#mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-3\" class=\"modern-footnotes-scroll-to-footnote\" aria-label=\"Back to reference 3 in text\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/div><\/li><li id=\"footnote-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-4\"><span>4<\/span><div>Yang Sheng<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>and Zhang Yuying, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202309\/1298153.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China issues proposal on reform, devt of global governance<\/a>&#8220;, 13 September 2023, <em>Global Times<\/em>. <a href=\"#mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-4\" class=\"modern-footnotes-scroll-to-footnote\" aria-label=\"Back to reference 4 in text\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/div><\/li><li id=\"footnote-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-5\"><span>5<\/span><div>&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.gov.cn\/eng\/zy\/gb\/202405\/t20240531_11367498.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Proposal of the People\u2019s Republic of China\u2002on the Reform and Development of Global Governance<\/a>&#8220; <a href=\"#mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-5\" class=\"modern-footnotes-scroll-to-footnote\" aria-label=\"Back to reference 5 in text\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/div><\/li><li id=\"footnote-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-6\"><span>6<\/span><div>e.g. France 24 &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20230928-more-than-65-000-flee-nagorno-karabakh-separatist-republic-will-cease-to-exist\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nagorno-Karabakh announces dissolution as more than 75,000 flee separatist enclave<\/a>&#8220;, 28 September 2023; Masha Gessen, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/our-columnists\/the-violent-end-of-nagorno-karabakhs-fight-for-independence\">The Violent End of Nagorno-Karabakh\u2019s Fight for Independence<\/a>&#8220;, <em>The New Yorker<\/em>, 29 September 2023. <a href=\"#mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-6\" class=\"modern-footnotes-scroll-to-footnote\" aria-label=\"Back to reference 6 in text\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/div><\/li><li id=\"footnote-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-7\"><span>7<\/span><div>H. Lavoix, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/05\/22\/the-kurds-in-syria-state-building-new-model-and-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Kurds in Syria \u2013 State-Building, New Model and War<\/a>&#8220;, 22 May\u00a0201 <a href=\"#mfn-content-0000000000005e270000000000000000_37802-7\" class=\"modern-footnotes-scroll-to-footnote\" aria-label=\"Back to reference 7 in text\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9nergie se d\u00e9stabilisent et que les anciennes alliances se fissurent, nous revenons sur notre analyse fondamentale expliquant comment les civilisations r\u00e9agissent aux immenses pressions auxquelles elles doivent faire face.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3333,1529,3243,1078],"tags":[1116,1789,5361,2560],"class_list":["post-37802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change-planetary-boundaries-geopolitics","category-extreme-environments-security","category-future-wars","category-new-paradigm","tag-civilisation","tag-featured","tag-featured-insight-1","tag-open-access","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World. &#8226; 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Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37802"}],"version-history":[{"count":81,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43730,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37802\/revisions\/43730"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}