{"id":41061,"date":"2025-03-14T09:35:48","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T08:35:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=41061"},"modified":"2025-03-14T19:12:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T18:12:00","slug":"les-signaux-faibles-de-lai-lemportent-sur-les-revolutionnaires-internationaux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/","title":{"rendered":"Comment utiliser l'IA pour les signaux faibles - Trump, le r\u00e9volutionnaire international ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">(Art direction and design:<a href=\"https:\/\/jdlavoixcarli.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Identifying and using weak signals is an important part of the processes of strategic foresight and early warning. It is at the heart of the activity known as scanning or horizon scanning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:48%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weak signals can point towards the possible apparition of a new theme for a topic of concern. They can indicate the emergence of novel issues for a specific theme. They can also suggest that a new specific question for an issue is materialising. They will indicate if a possibility is strengthening or weakening (for more see H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\">Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Early Warning: Definition and Practice<\/a>&#8220;, <em>The Red Team Analysis Society<\/em>, 2019)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The earlier you identify those weak signals relevant to you, the more time you have to get prepared for the future. Weak signals not only give you time, but also start outlining what to do because they bring to the fore a theme, issue or question and begin fleshing it out, giving it meaning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, we may wonder if some of the changes brought about by President Trump, who has been shocking and shaking the world since his election in November 2024, are weak signals and what those mean.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:52%\"><ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-250x150.png\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-250x150.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">RTAS Expertise Highlighted on Italian Television Channel LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Featured image of the article &quot;The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport&quot; by Dr H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix for RTAS - Image by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">The Strange Mystery of Bolivia&#8217;s Lithium Reserves<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">WATCH OUT &#8211; The Iran War, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL &#8211; The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Illustration by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">WATCH OUT &#8211; Yemen and Saudi Arabia<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since artificial intelligence (AI) models flourish and are meant to be increasingly efficient, potentially giving us, human beings, new capabilities, can we use them to scan the horizon and identify weak signals? Among AI competing offers, which one should we choose? How can we best use AI models to identify and understand those key weak signals? For example, can they help us with some of the weak signals, if any, stemming from the 2025 Trump administration?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To address these questions, we will explore a variety of AI models, as explained in this article. We present the <a href=\"#testdesign\">design of the experiment<\/a> in the first part. We then detail the <a href=\"#exp1\">results<\/a> we obtained for each of the AI model tested. We <a href=\"#comments1\">comment and evaluate<\/a> them according to the needs of weak signal analysis. When possible we rank the three models. Considering results, we had to add a <a href=\"#humantouch\">human input<\/a> to improve analysis. Again we present the new results and <a href=\"#comments2\">evaluate<\/a> them. Finally, using the experiment and its results and the <a href=\"#airetex\">return of experience<\/a> created by the AI models on their own analyses and omissions, we put together a <a href=\"#tips\">series of recommendations<\/a> to use AI models at best for the second step of weak signal identification and analysis: i.e. the meaning of one or many weak signals and the potential impact of those signals. We end by highlighting a couple of potential <a href=\"#consequences\">consequences for the future<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, in addition to classical impacts, we highlight the major consequences of President Trump&#8217;s statements concerning the Canada, Gaza, Greenland and Panama, in particular, the erosion of the current norms of the international society and, consequently, the increased likelihood of their upheaval in the months and years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"testdesign\">Designing the experiment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Selecting the question<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First we need to find out what to ask the various AI models. To do so we need to understand how we identify weak signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a nutshell, identifying meaningfully and usefully weak signals can be done by answering the following questions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Which events (signals) took place &#8211; or are taking place &#8211; in the world and relate to my primary concern (taken in the broadest sense of the word). The temporal framework can start with looking at the past month then year and broadening it when necessary according to the identified signals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What is the meaning of this event (or series of events) relative to the issue(s) to which it is linked? Is it related to an existing and known trend? In which way does it comfort it or, on the contrary, undermine it? Is it something new and, potentially, unexpected? In which way is it new compared with events related to my concern? Which dynamic, if any, could result from this new event?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Can I find other events that would comfort or undermine the potential new dynamic created by the new signal?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the dynamics potentially highlighted by the signal were to truly take shape in the world, what would be the strength of the weak signal, according to the perception of various actors?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For this first experiment we skip the first question and shall address it in another article. Indeed, we need first to understand how and why an AI model gives meaning to an event to be able to guide the AI&#8217;s selection of weak signals. Thus we start here with the second question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This approach is grounded in an often unconscious cognitive phenomenon we explained in &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\">Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Early Warning: Definition and Practice<\/a>&#8220;, the need to have a mental model, even in an embryonic stage, to be able to start looking for signals. As we detailed there:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;If you start looking for something, even in the loosest way, to do that you need to have an idea, even minimal, of what you are looking for. What happens is that, unconsciously, you rely on a cognitive model. This cognitive model is implicit. Thus, to scan the horizon you already use a model, even if it is a very imperfect one.&#8221;<\/p>\n<cite><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\">Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Early Warning: Definition and Practice<\/a><\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Considering experience and knowledge, the implicit model we use when monitoring what is happening in the world is obviously not the one used by the various AI models. Those are indeed not created for our scanning purpose, even though they include billions of <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@sanjeeva.bora\/understanding-parameters-in-genai-models-design-use-cases-and-significance-9a0c03902dff\">parameters<\/a> and teraquads of data. We thus need to find how to gear models towards our specific aim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Selecting the signals<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we started with question 2, we had to select signals ourselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The signals we selected needed to be key in terms of geopolitics and international relations, yet not that obvious in terms of analysis, interpretation and impact. They thus needed to be weak for the dynamic at hand, at least in terms of perception by other actors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then, the signals needed to be interesting in terms of reading and use, or the whole point of the experiment would be lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, as highlighted in the introduction, we chose some statements made by the U.S. president Donald Trump at the start of its second mandate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Selecting the AI models<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We decided to carry out the experiment on three models through typical written exchanges. The models used are all in their most recent free version at the time of writing : namely <a href=\"https:\/\/grok.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Grok<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/x.ai\/blog\/grok-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">model Grok 3<\/a>, released February 19, 2025, belonging to xAI), <a href=\"https:\/\/chatgpt.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ChatGpt<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/platform.openai.com\/docs\/models\/o3-mini\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">model o3-mini<\/a>, released 31 January 2025, OpenAI), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deepseek.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">DeepSeek<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/api-docs.deepseek.com\/news\/news250120\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">DeepSeek-R1<\/a>, released 20 January 2025, the Chinese AI model that shook Wall Street).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Readers should note that one of the difficulties met when using AI models is that results are not always reproducible. This tends to deny a scientific quality to experiments. However, there is no other way round in our field, as its current niche aspect, despite the key importance of geopolitics, strategic foresight and early warning, makes it unlikely our field will be any time soon part of official AI models benchmarking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hence, caution should always be exercised when using AI models for our work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For this test we focused on the mode or approache &#8220;thinking&#8221; or &#8220;reflexion&#8221; for all three models, rather than on the mode &#8220;deep search&#8221;. Considering the length and details of each answer, we only reproduce here the conclusions. The complete conversations are available in pdf (for members, download accessible on the right-hand side). We particularly recommend reading not only the answers in detail, but also the reasoning of each AI behind the answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The colours given below to each answer try to match the colour used by the AI model. Note that Grok 3 determined itself its colour and shared the corresponding code.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.7em\">Grok 3: You can select either Deep Search or Think &#8211; However the Think mode also searches through the web.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.7em\">ChatGPT: you can select both Search and Reason &#8211; we selected only Reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.7em\">DeepSeek: You can select DeepThink-R1 and Search &#8211; the Search mode has been unavailable at the time of writing. The model is updated until 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.7em\">Download the complete conversations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-woocommerce-memberships-non-member-content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.7em\">The complete conversations are for <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-3\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">members only<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/my-account\/\">Log in<\/a> if you are a member.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"exp1\">The meaning of weak signals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The human decision: the weak signals given to the AI<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The American President Donald Trump has stated many times he wished to make Canada the 51st state of the U.S., take over Greenland, manage Gaza and claim back the canal of Panama. Considering those are weak signals for the future, can you elaborate on these weak signals and what they could mean for the future?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We remained voluntarily vague in our question to see how the various AI models would handle the question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having already selected signals makes it, of course, easier for the AI to be a useful tool in terms of scan for weak signals.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The AIs find alone an answer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">Grok 3 &#8211; &#8220;Think&#8221; mode<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockgrok has-white-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-1 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(135deg,rgb(26,13,43) 0%,rgba(42,27,94,0.49) 49%,rgb(60,47,138) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Conclusion<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">Trump\u2019s statements regarding Canada, Greenland, Gaza, and the Panama Canal are weak signals of a potentially more assertive and unilateral U.S. foreign policy. They suggest a future where the U.S. prioritizes national interests\u2014economic, strategic, and security-related\u2014over multilateral cooperation. However, the feasibility of these ideas is low due to legal, diplomatic, and sovereignty barriers. The future implications include heightened global tensions, strained alliances, and a reevaluation of U.S. strategic priorities. While these signals indicate intent, their realization will depend on complex negotiations, political will, and international reactions, making the outcomes uncertain but consequential for global stability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">DeepSeek-R1 &#8211; &#8220;DeepThink&#8221; mode<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockdeepseek has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(180deg,rgb(255,255,255) 0%,rgb(36,152,255) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Synthesis: Broader Trends<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These weak signals collectively suggest a foreign policy paradigm that could prioritize:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Economic and Territorial Expansionism<\/strong>: Securing resources and strategic chokepoints (Arctic, canals) through coercion or deal-making.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Unilateral Intervention<\/strong>: Bypassing international consensus to manage conflicts or territories.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Transactional Nationalism<\/strong>: Treating alliances and sovereignty as negotiable, risking diplomatic blowback.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Great-Power Competition<\/strong>: Countering rivals like China and Russia by controlling critical infrastructure and regions.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Potential Scenarios<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Arctic Resource Wars<\/strong>: U.S.-Russia-China competition over shipping lanes and minerals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Erosion of Sovereignty Norms<\/strong>: Smaller states pressured into &#8220;partnerships&#8221; that compromise autonomy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Coalitional Pushback<\/strong>: Allies banding together to resist U.S. unilateralism (e.g., EU-Canada trade pacts).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While these ideas may not materialize as stated, they reflect ideologies that could resurface in U.S. politics, particularly among leaders advocating &#8220;America First&#8221; strategies. Their feasibility depends on domestic political support, international resistance, and legal constraints, but the signals underscore a drift toward assertive, zero-sum geopolitics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">Chat-GPT o3-mini &#8211; &#8220;Reason&#8221; mode<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockgpt has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(90deg,rgb(252,215,0) 0%,rgb(255,255,255) 46%,rgb(0,203,255) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">In Summary<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">These comments [by Trump] should be seen as provocative rhetorical devices rather than concrete plans. They signal a shift toward a more assertive, nationalist stance in political discourse and hint at a desire to recapture past glories. However, the practical and legal realities of international relations make actual policy changes in these areas extremely unlikely. Instead, these weak signals serve as a barometer for the current political climate\u2014a mix of nostalgia, assertiveness, and a challenge to the status quo\u2014which may shape the tone of future political debates without necessarily leading to drastic shifts in international borders or control.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"comments1\">Comments and evaluation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Each of the AI model brings relevant yet rather classical interpretations of President Trump&#8217;s statements. We rank below each model, and explain why, highlighting strength and weaknesses for this stage of weak signal analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rank 3 &#8211; ChatGpt 03-mini: disappointingly inadequate<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The least adequate model for weak signal analysis is ChatGpt 03-mini. First, its assessment of what are weak signals in its answer is shaky if not plainly wrong:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;In political analysis, such comments are often termed \u201cweak signals\u201d because they hint at broader attitudes without committing to actionable plans&#8221; (see full text in pdf). <\/p>\n<cite>ChatGPT 03-mini &#8211; Reason mode &#8211; see full text in pdf.<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This lack of understanding is disappointing because, during the reflection phase, 03-mini was closer to a proper comprehension of weak signals. Nonetheless, it seems 03-mini ignores what are weak signals and deduces a bizarre meaning out of the usage of the words by the user. As a result, ChatGPT&#8217;s 03-mini model should be disqualified from the start. We keep it nonetheless for the sake of the experiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then 03-mini&#8217;s major flaw is its assertion of the rhetorical quality of the American President&#8217;s statements, when it gives no evidence and has no historical depth to make such assessment. As a result, the AI&#8217;s assertion reads as a subjective judgement lacking the objective detachment that is absolutely needed in weak signals analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the positive side, ChatGPT highlighted a &#8220;Potential for Shifting Norms&#8221; in the part of its analysis on broader implications for the future. Unfortunately, it could not relate that sub-title to the content of its explanation, making it inconsistent. We do not know if the inconsistency is related to a willingness to summarise too much or to real inconsistency. When we exchanged with the model to try to explain the inconsistency, the model showed not only an inability to understand but also a stubbornness into insisting it was right, a trait that is not uncommon in AI model.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rank 2 &#8211; DeepSeek DeepThink-R1 &#8211; Good despite a handicap<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DeepSeek DeepThink-R1 is handicapped by the date of closure for the knowledge of its model (2023) and its inability to use together DeepThink and Search modes. However, the model recollection of past events is precise, even though references are not provided. The absence of references would increase the workload of the weak signal analyst as s\/he will have first to find the origin of the AI model information, before to check thoroughly every fact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DeepSeek-R1 explanation of what are weak signals is correct:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;&#8216;weak signals&#8217; &#8211; early, often ambiguous indicators of potential shifts in geopolitical strategy. While these ideas may seem implausible or hyperbolic, they hint at underlying themes that could shape future policy directions.&#8221;<\/p>\n<cite>DeepSeek-R1 &#8211; see pdf<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We can particularly highlight two interesting elements in the analysis of the DeepSeek-R1 model. First, DeepSeek rightly stresses the resources of Canada as a possible motivation for the American President&#8217;s statement and interest. Then, it also highlights that the American President assertions could lead to the &#8220;Erosion of Sovereignty Norms&#8221; as a future scenario. Unfortunately, in that case, DeepSeek restricts the impact to &#8220;smaller states&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rank 1 &#8211; Grok 3: Very Interesting<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As far as Grok 3 is concerned, first, the model understands correctly what are weak signals:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;First, I need to understand what &#8220;weak signals&#8221; are. In this context, they likely refer to early indicators or hints of potential future events or trends that are not yet fully formed or obvious.&#8221;<\/p>\n<cite>Grok 3 &#8211; see pdf.<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then, during the thinking phase, Grok 3 uses references with hyperlinks, which fleshes out its thinking and gives evidence. This aspect will ease the task of the weak signal analyst in checking the facts provided by Grok 3. This phase, however, cannot be fully delegated to the IA considering latest reports on the way IA models can be misled (e.g. Ina Fried, &#8220;<a href=\"Exclusive: Russian disinformation floods AI chatbots, study finds\">Exclusive: Russian disinformation floods AI chatbots, study finds<\/a>&#8220;, <em>Axio<\/em>s, 6 March 2025). Note however, that disinformation is not something new and that intelligence services and researchers have been fighting it for decades if not century. Analysts should just use usual way to fight misinformation and disinformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the thinking phase, Grok 3 also provides the user, for each signal, with a detailed analysis including future implications framed in the right language (notably likelihood), with a comparative table and with a synthesis. As a result this phase is highly useful in terms of weak signal analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By contrast with ChatGPT o3-mini, Grok 3 highlights that Trump&#8217;s statements are &#8220;often seen as rhetorical flourishes&#8221;. It thus stresses perceptions but does not confuse them with facts. This reveals a far better analytical capacity of facts and events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Grok 3 also sees a potential for shifting global norms resulting from Trump&#8217;s statements, even though it is not highlighted as a subtitle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the negative side, we can highlight that, for example, the wealth in resources of Canada that could be of interest to the U.S. is completely ignored.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>As a conclusion, for this stage of weak signals analysis we choose Grok 3, possibly in combination with DeepSeek-R1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, being a human trained and experienced in international relations, I knew that the three AI models missed something fundamental, even if they all more or less mentioned it: the impact of President Trump&#8217;s statements on norms and the corresponding consequences on the international society of states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Supplementary questions to the AI models were thus necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"humantouch\">Adding the human touch: what about international norms?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Now consider again these signals in the framework of the English school of international relations theory.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Being a British educated political scientist, President Trump&#8217;s statements immediately triggered for me an alarm bell relative to the norms of the international society, according to the very powerful yet not enough used framework of the English school of international relations theory (e.g. Stephen McGlinchey, Rosie Walters and Christian Scheinpflug, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/socialsci.libretexts.org\/Bookshelves\/Sociology\/International_Sociology\/Book%3A_International_Relations_Theory_(McGlinchey_Walters_and_Scheinpflug)\/03%3A_The_English_School\/3.01%3A_The_Basics_of_the_English_School\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Basics of the English School<\/a>&#8220;, in <em>International Relations Theory \u2013<\/em>&nbsp;an E-IR Foundations beginner\u2019s textbook; Barry Buzan, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/library.fes.de\/libalt\/journals\/swetsfulltext\/11357358.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The English School: an underexploited resource in IR<\/a>&#8220;, <em>Review of International Studies<\/em> (2001), 27, 471\u2013488).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The AIs consider the new perspective<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">Grok 3 &#8211; &#8220;Think&#8221; mode<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockgrok has-white-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-2 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(135deg,rgb(26,13,43) 0%,rgba(42,27,94,0.49) 49%,rgb(60,47,138) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Broader Implications for International Society<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump\u2019s statements collectively challenge the norms that define the international society:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Erosion of Norms<\/strong>: By questioning sovereignty, territorial integrity, humanitarian principles, and treaty obligations, these proposals could weaken the shared rules that maintain global order. This might push the world closer to an anarchic <strong>international system<\/strong>, where power trumps cooperation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Redefinition of Norms<\/strong>: Alternatively, Trump\u2019s rhetoric could be an attempt to reshape international society\u2019s norms to favor U.S. interests. This &#8220;revolutionary&#8221; stance might advocate for a new order where powerful states have greater flexibility to act unilaterally, altering the balance of global governance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The outcome depends on the responses of other states and international actors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Reinforcement through Opposition<\/strong>: Strong resistance from Canada, Denmark, Panama, and the broader international community\u2014as seen in their public reactions\u2014could reinforce existing norms. This would demonstrate the resilience of the international society\u2019s commitment to sovereignty, territorial integrity, and treaty obligations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Shift through Accommodation<\/strong>: If states negotiate or compromise on these issues, it might indicate a willingness to adapt norms, allowing for more flexible interpretations of sovereignty or international agreements.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Conclusion<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">From the English School perspective, Trump\u2019s statements about Canada, Greenland, Gaza, and the Panama Canal represent a significant challenge to the norms of international society\u2014particularly sovereignty, non-intervention, territorial integrity, and the sanctity of treaties. These &#8220;weak signals&#8221; suggest a potential move toward a more power-driven, unilateral U.S. foreign policy, which could either erode the shared rules of global order or prompt their redefinition. The trajectory hinges on how other states and international actors respond: robust opposition could uphold the current framework, while accommodation might signal an evolving international society.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">DeepSeek-R1 &#8211; &#8220;DeepThink&#8221; mode<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockdeepseek has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(180deg,rgb(255,255,255) 0%,rgb(36,152,255) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Synthesis: International Society Under Strain<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These signals collectively stress three key English School concerns:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Sovereignty and Hierarchy<\/strong>: The U.S. testing boundaries of sovereign equality risks fragmenting international society into spheres of influence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Institutional Decay<\/strong>: Unilateral revisionism (on treaties, territory, intervention) weakens institutions like diplomacy, international law, and multilateralism.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Pluralist-Solidarist Tensions<\/strong>: Trump\u2019s transactional approach rejects solidarist projects (e.g., climate cooperation, human rights) in favor of a pluralist, power-centric order\u2014yet without respecting pluralism\u2019s safeguards for weaker states.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Scenarios in English School Terms<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fragmented International Society<\/strong>: Regional blocs (EU, ASEAN) consolidate to counter U.S. unilateralism, creating competing normative orders.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resurgent Hierarchical Order<\/strong>: A return to 19th-century &#8220;great power management,&#8221; where norms are imposed by a concert of powers (U.S., China, Russia).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Reformed Solidarism<\/strong>: A backlash fostering renewed commitment to multilateralism, akin to post-Trump rejoining of the Paris Agreement or Iran deal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Conclusion<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the English School perspective, these signals reflect a&nbsp;<strong>crisis of legitimacy<\/strong>&nbsp;in the U.S. role as a custodian of international society. While the U.S. has historically acted as a &#8220;primary institution&#8221; shaping norms (e.g., post-WWII liberal order), transactional nationalism undermines its moral authority. The future hinges on whether other states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Reinforce pluralist norms<\/strong>&nbsp;(e.g., defending sovereignty, treaties),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Pursue ad hoc solidarism<\/strong>&nbsp;(e.g., climate coalitions bypassing the U.S.), or<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Accept a fragmented order<\/strong>&nbsp;where power trumps rules.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">In essence, Trump\u2019s rhetoric exposes the fragility of international society\u2019s norms when a hegemon opts for coercion over consensus\u2014a challenge foreseen by English School theorists like Hedley Bull in&nbsp;<em>The Anarchical Society<\/em>&nbsp;(1977).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">Chat-GPT o3-mini &#8211; &#8220;Reason&#8221; mode<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockgpt has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(90deg,rgb(252,215,0) 0%,rgb(255,255,255) 46%,rgb(0,203,255) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Broader Implications for the International Society<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Normative Disruption:<\/strong> These signals, though largely rhetorical, indicate a potential for shifting the balance in international society. If dominant powers adopt such a stance, it might lead to an erosion of the consensual norms that have underpinned global order since World War II.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Domestic vs. International Legitimacy:<\/strong> While these remarks may resonate with domestic constituencies seeking strong, assertive leadership, they run counter to the expectations of legitimacy within international society. The English School would caution that even symbolic moves can have real-world effects by altering perceptions of what behaviors are acceptable in international relations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Reconfiguring Pluralism and Solidarism:<\/strong> If such rhetoric gains traction, it could tilt the balance towards a more pluralistic\u2014or even confrontational\u2014approach where unilateral power is emphasized over cooperative norms. This reordering could challenge the very fabric of international society, leading to greater instability and contestation over what constitutes legitimate state behavior.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Conclusion<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">From the English School perspective, these weak signals are more than mere political theater\u2014they are indicators of a potential reimagining of international society. By challenging long-held norms regarding sovereignty, intervention, and historical agreements, such rhetoric reflects a broader contest over the values and rules that govern global order. While unlikely to result in immediate territorial changes, the underlying sentiment could, over time, contribute to a shift in how legitimacy and power are conceptualized on the international stage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"comments2\"><br>Comments and evaluation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Each model correctly identifies the challenge the selected weak signals create to the current norms of the international society. Each provides interesting analyses and grasps the stakes. Yet, each analysis could be perfected, in various ways. As a result, it is impossible to rank them and the three could be used together to obtain a better final analysis. Note that detailed theoretical discussions on each point made by each AI model could be fascinating and constructive, such approach is, however, beyond the scope of this article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Grok 3: Interesting analysis but insufficient historical perspective <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Grok 3 offers a good short synthesis of the English School of International Relations Theory, highlighting its essence. It presents the fundamentals of the English School clearly to the reader. Most importantly, it applies the English School&#8217;s approach correctly to the American President&#8217;s statements. Proper references to the English School of International Relations Theory would have been a plus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, there is also, unfortunately, a lack of historical perspective, while it is uncertain that Grok 3 understands that norms evolve in time. For example, Grok 3 should have written &#8220;Trump\u2019s statements collectively challenge the [<strong>current<\/strong>] norms that define the [<strong>contemporary<\/strong>] international society&#8221; (my emphasis added). Grok 3 counterbalances the perception of its inability to handle the dynamics of norms when it suggests that the U.S. statements could also lead to the redefinition of new norms. However, these new norms may not be &#8211; or not only &#8211; in favour of the U.S., when the model only focuses on novel norms that will be favourable to the U.S..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is here an oversimplification at work in the understanding of the way norms evolve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ChatGPT o3-mini: Correct conclusion but unsatisfying content<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ChatGPT o3-mini starts with a correct definition of the core principle of the English School of International Relations Theory. It then uses a key debate in the School, namely &#8220;pluralism versus solidarism&#8221; (e.g. William Bain, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/oxfordre.com\/internationalstudies\/display\/10.1093\/acrefore\/9780190846626.001.0001\/acrefore-9780190846626-e-342?d=%2F10.1093%2Facrefore%2F9780190846626.001.0001%2Facrefore-9780190846626-e-342&amp;p=emailAuwJMruyLNhvM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Pluralist\u2013Solidarist Debate in the English School&#8217;<\/a>, <em>Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies<\/em>,&nbsp;11 Jan. 2018). O3-mini sees pluralism as &#8220;respecting sovereignty and diversity&#8221; and solidarism as &#8220;shared values and common interests&#8221;. This approach to the debate is an extreme shortcut. A more interesting vision is offered by Stephen McGlinchey, et al. with pluralism as &#8220;international societies with a relatively low degree of shared norms, rules and institutions&#8221; and solidarism as &#8220;types of international society with a relatively high degree of shared norms, rules and institutions&#8221;. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Considering the often complex character of debates within or between schools of thought, users should be very careful in handling what the AI models summarize and highlight. They should ask for references. Without adequate references, it becomes difficult for the user to know why the AI model has chosen a specific approach or element.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then, and more worrying, at time, 03-mini appears to fail to understand the dynamic evolution of norms, and is unable to locate them in a historical context that is key for the English School.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The conclusion offered by the AI model is nonetheless correct.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DeepSeek-R1: Interesting but to take with caution considering some overstatements<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DeepSeek-R1 focuses its entire reasoning on the tension between &#8220;pluralism (state sovereignty) and solidarism (collective action for human rights, etc.)&#8221; within the English School (see above). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When DeepSeek-R1 applies this approach to Trump&#8217;s statements, its thinking is interesting and provides a relatively thorough analysis according to its initial focus. It attempts to locate norms historically, which is necessary and very valuable, and a plus compared with the other models. It also offers different possible future scenarios, which is of value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DeepSeek-R1 model, however, goes too far in its conclusion, when it stresses, for example, &#8220;the U.S. role as a custodian of international society&#8221;. This is a very questionable statement, considering, for example, the typical American refusal to enter treaties that the U.S. perceives as restricting its sovereignty (e.g. Anya Wahal, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/blog\/international-treaties-united-states-refuses-play-ball\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">On International Treaties, the United States Refuses to Play Ball<\/a>&#8220;, 7 January 2022, <em>Council on Foreign Relations<\/em>). For example, the U.S. has neither signed nor ratified the Mine Ban Treaty, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/depts\/los\/convention_agreements\/texts\/unclos\/unclos_e.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)<\/a>, and&nbsp;withdrew from the International Criminal Court (Ibid.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While DeepSeek attempts to specify historically its statements in its analyses, it has difficulties being consistent with that approach. For example, the previous assertion on the U.S. does not consider the &#8220;youth&#8221; of the United States compared with many countries in the world. There is also a similar challenge when DeepSeek-R1 states &#8220;the U.S. has historically acted as a &#8220;primary institution&#8221; shaping norms (e.g. post-WWII liberal order).&#8221; This role should be limited to the 20th century and, so far, the first decades of the 21st century. The future is still to be written, while for millenia the U.S. did not exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even though the analysis of each of the models tested could be improved and refined, all AIs correctly stressed the normative importance of President Trump&#8217;s statements. If the normative impact is so important &#8211; as we indeed knew as human beings &#8211; then we must understand why the AI models did not immediately include it. We have to make sure such omissions are not the rule or we risk missing key elements and indeed signals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Using AI for weak signals &#8211; Improving results and broader consequences<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"airetex\">Understanding AIs omissions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Questioning the AI models on their analysis<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Now compare your two conclusions for the analysis of the weak signals. Which one is more powerful if any? Why did you not consider the normative aspect initially?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The AIs offer explanation and synthesis<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">Grok 3 &#8211; &#8220;Think&#8221; mode<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockgrok has-white-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-3 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(135deg,rgb(26,13,43) 0%,rgba(42,27,94,0.49) 49%,rgb(60,47,138) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Why the Normative Aspect Wasn\u2019t Initially Considered<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initially, I focused on the <strong>practical and immediate implications<\/strong> of Trump\u2019s statements &#8211; such as their effects on trade, diplomacy, or geopolitics &#8211; because these are the most visible and urgent issues in current political discussions. The normative aspect, tied to abstract concepts like international society and global norms, requires a theoretical framework to fully grasp its significance. In a fast-paced policy context, the immediate &#8220;what&#8221; (e.g., trade tensions with Canada) often overshadows the deeper &#8220;why&#8221; or &#8220;how&#8221; (e.g., challenges to sovereignty norms).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, the English School\u2019s normative perspective is critical for understanding the <strong>structural risks<\/strong> posed by Trump\u2019s rhetoric. It shows that these weak signals go beyond specific regions or policies\u2014they could reshape the global order itself. Overlooking this initially was a matter of prioritizing practicality over theory, but the normative lens ultimately proves more illuminating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Conclusion<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">While both analyses offer value, the English School conclusion is more powerful due to its theoretical depth, normative focus, and predictive strength. It reveals that Trump\u2019s statements, even if not fully acted upon, could erode the foundations of global cooperation\u2014a far-reaching insight that outstrips the general analysis\u2019s focus on immediate outcomes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">DeepSeek-R1 &#8211; &#8220;DeepThink&#8221; mode<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockdeepseek has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(180deg,rgb(255,255,255) 0%,rgb(36,152,255) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Why Normative Aspects Were Not Initially Considered<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The initial analysis omitted normative considerations because:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Assumed Framework<\/strong>: The first response followed a mainstream geopolitical approach (realist\/liberal), which often treats norms as tools of statecraft rather than foundational.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>User Request<\/strong>: The original question focused on &#8220;what these signals could mean for the future,&#8221; emphasizing material outcomes (e.g., annexation, resource control). Normative implications were secondary until explicitly reframed via the English School.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Practical vs. Theoretical<\/strong>: The first reply aimed for accessibility to a broad audience, while the English School requires engaging with IR theory\u2019s normative debates.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Final Synthesis<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<strong>English School conclusion is more powerful<\/strong>&nbsp;for diagnosing systemic risks to international society, while the geopolitical analysis better predicts immediate tactical outcomes. Together, they reveal:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Material Power<\/strong>: The U.S. might achieve short-term gains (e.g., Arctic influence, trade deals).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Normative Costs<\/strong>: These gains could corrode the legitimacy of U.S. leadership and destabilize the institutions that underpin global cooperation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">In essence, the English School warns that transactional victories today could spawn chaotic, fragmented governance tomorrow\u2014a trade-off often overlooked in purely geopolitical assessments.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\">Chat-GPT o3-mini &#8211; &#8220;Reason&#8221; mode<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column blockgpt has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(90deg,rgb(252,215,0) 0%,rgb(255,255,255) 46%,rgb(0,203,255) 100%)\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Why the Normative Aspect Was Initially Omitted<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Context of the Question:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The original inquiry was open-ended and did not specify a particular theoretical framework, leading to a more conventional analysis centered on political messaging and practical policy implications.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Theoretical Lens:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Without a prompt to examine the issue through the lens of international society and norms, the initial analysis naturally focused on observable signals and their immediate implications rather than on the deeper, normative impact.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In summary<\/strong>, both approaches are insightful, but the English School analysis offers a more powerful explanation by linking seemingly isolated rhetorical gestures to broader, transformative trends in international society.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AI models seek to please as many users as possible and to be useful to the greater number. As a result, they focus on what they perceive as immediately &#8220;useful and practical&#8221; in a &#8220;fast-paced policy context (Grok 3), accessible &#8220;to a broad audience&#8221; (DeepSeek); they focus on &#8220;political messaging and practical policy implications&#8221; thus on &#8220;immediate implications&#8221; (O3-mini).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, as the models point out, in so doing they miss &#8220;the deeper &#8216;why&#8217; or &#8216;how'&#8221; and thus global &#8220;structural risks&#8221; (Grok 3). They will also miss what is relevant to specialists (DeepSeek), which can become a serious problem when working with weak signals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They also assume that the user wants to stick to mainstream analysis and paradigm (DeepSeek), and that if something is not expressly requested by the user, then it means s\/he is not interested in it (DeepSeek, o3-mini).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Accessorily, DeepSeek was of bad faith when answering the question on its omission. This is a bias that must be kept in mind when working with AI models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Incidentally, the choices of the AI models and the reasons for their omissions tell us also a lot on the general level of mediocrity and short-sightedness that is currently prevalent. For the following recommendations, we shall, however, imagine that weak signals analysts and decision-makers wish to get the best possible weak signals analysis for the best possible policies, beyond and above all other considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our interactions with AI models should consider the characteristics of models they themselves highlighted and be specific in the questions asked to overcome omissions and too much generalities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"tips\">Recommendations to use AI models for weak signals analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Be as precise as possible when you question an AI model on the meaning of weak signals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tell the model which type of user you are, why you are making this weak signal analysis. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ask the AI model to answer on at least two levels: practical and immediate implications besides deeper and longer terms impacts. Ask the model to explain why it chooses each type of analysis and ask if other theories and approaches could also be useful and powerful.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Note that including knowledge and issue experts may be necessary here.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>According to the model used, don&#8217;t hesitate to feed the AI model &#8220;memory&#8221;.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ask the model to also think in historical terms.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ask the AI model to give specific references with hyperlinks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Don&#8217;t hesitate to question the AI model when you are unsure of the answer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If confidentiality is a problem, and if you are afraid to unwillingly share key information, then use a proxy (for example using anonymised accounts, working through experts which handle very different requests when they use AIs, etc.), and, ideally, use your own AI model (if you have the capacities to do so).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Remember that AI models are tools to help human users. Ultimately you are the one asking, reading, understanding and deciding.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"consequences\">Consequences for the future<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DeepSeek as a most able AI model for weak signals analysis<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The trend according to which countries and organisations forbid access to DeepSeek because of security and privacy concern could also backfire by depriving users of a more capable tool  (e.g. &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/2\/6\/which-countries-have-banned-deepseek-and-why\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Which countries have banned DeepSeek and why?<\/a>&#8220;, <em>Al Jazeera<\/em>, 6 February 2025). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Imagine two actors, one using 03-mini for weak signals analysis and the other DeepSeek-R1. The first actor would use a flawed analysis and thus design and carry out suboptimal policies. The second one, on the contrary, would use a far better analysis leading to better decisions then actions. As a result, the first actor would be at a serious disadvantage compared with the second. Potentially, immediate security concerns would conflict with longer terms security concerns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We see here new complex challenges emerging out of the use of AI models, when those have varying efficiency and when related security concerns multiply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Blocking a model is probably not the best solution. Finding a way to use the model of a competitor without becoming its prey is a smarter approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The need for the human touch<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In terms of using these AI models for weak signal analysis, the supplementary questions that must be asked to make sure the AI model is used at best depend upon the knowledge and understanding of the user.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three major consequences are possible here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, only people with the right expertise will be able to use AI models fully for weak signal analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, we may move towards a two-tier world, where those who have the right expertise, or can afford it, will be able to use properly AI models, while others will depend blindly upon these models, without being able to go beyond what is told to them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, in the second case, decisions can be taken that are inadequate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Third, and that is the worst possible case, if speed, low cost, and mass perceptions are favoured, only AI models&#8217; analysis will be taken into account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With time, this will lead to the disappearance of expertise and to less than efficient and finally wrong or even dangerous decisions and actions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Actors that will avoid falling into this trap will, strategically, have an increasingly stronger strategic edge over others.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Direction artistique et conception : Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) L'identification et l'utilisation des signaux faibles constituent une part importante des processus de prospective strat\u00e9gique et d'alerte pr\u00e9coce. Elle est au c\u0153ur de l'activit\u00e9 connue sous le nom de \"scanning\" ou \"horizon scanning\". Les signaux faibles peuvent indiquer l'apparition possible d'un nouveau th\u00e8me pour un sujet de pr\u00e9occupation. ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Comment utiliser l'IA pour les signaux faibles - Trump, le r\u00e9volutionnaire international ? \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,2568,2860,33,2479],"tags":[2177,1789,2560,133],"class_list":["post-41061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-artificial-intelligence","category-featured","category-scan-and-monitor","category-monitoring-and-warning","tag-ai","tag-featured","tag-open-access","tag-weak-signal","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How to use AI for Weak Signals - Trump, the International Revolutionary? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2025\/03\/14\/les-signaux-faibles-de-lai-lemportent-sur-les-revolutionnaires-internationaux\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to use AI for Weak Signals - Trump, the International Revolutionary? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Identifying and using weak signals is an important part of the processes of strategic foresight and early warning. It is at the heart of the activity known as scanning or horizon scanning. Weak signals can point towards the possible apparition of a new theme for a topic of concern. &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0How to use AI for Weak Signals &#8211; Trump, the International Revolutionary?\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2025\/03\/14\/les-signaux-faibles-de-lai-lemportent-sur-les-revolutionnaires-internationaux\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-14T08:35:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-14T18:12:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"26 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"How to use AI for Weak Signals &#8211; Trump, the International Revolutionary?\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-14T08:35:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-14T18:12:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":6006,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"AI\",\"featured\",\"Open Access\",\"weak signal\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Americas\",\"Artificial Intelligence - Foreseeing the Future AI-powered World\",\"Featured\",\"Methodology of Early Warning and Scanning\",\"Scanning and Monitoring for Warning on Global Issues\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/\",\"name\":\"How to use AI for Weak Signals - Trump, the International Revolutionary? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-14T08:35:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-14T18:12:00+00:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/14\\\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg\",\"width\":1568,\"height\":941},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"description\":\"Strategic Foresight &amp; Early Warning \uff65 Political &amp; Geopolitical Risk \u00b7 Scenarios\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Red-Team-Analysis\\\/341280995886057\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/helenelavoix\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/5403964\\\/admin\\\/dashboard\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\",\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"description\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Comment utiliser l'IA pour analyser les signaux faibles - Trump, le r\u00e9volutionnaire international ? \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2025\/03\/14\/les-signaux-faibles-de-lai-lemportent-sur-les-revolutionnaires-internationaux\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":"How to use AI for Weak Signals - Trump, the International Revolutionary? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Identifying and using weak signals is an important part of the processes of strategic foresight and early warning. It is at the heart of the activity known as scanning or horizon scanning. Weak signals can point towards the possible apparition of a new theme for a topic of concern. &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0How to use AI for Weak Signals &#8211; Trump, the International Revolutionary?\u00a0\u00bb","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2025\/03\/14\/les-signaux-faibles-de-lai-lemportent-sur-les-revolutionnaires-internationaux\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2025-03-14T08:35:48+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-03-14T18:12:00+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1568,"height":941,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"26 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4"},"headline":"How to use AI for Weak Signals &#8211; Trump, the International Revolutionary?","datePublished":"2025-03-14T08:35:48+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-14T18:12:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/"},"wordCount":6006,"commentCount":1,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg","keywords":["AI","featured","Open Access","weak signal"],"articleSection":["Americas","Artificial Intelligence - Foreseeing the Future AI-powered World","Featured","Methodology of Early Warning and Scanning","Scanning and Monitoring for Warning on Global Issues"],"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/","name":"Comment utiliser l'IA pour analyser les signaux faibles - Trump, le r\u00e9volutionnaire international ? \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg","datePublished":"2025-03-14T08:35:48+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-14T18:12:00+00:00","inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/03\/14\/ai-weak-signals-trump-international-revolutionary\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg","width":1568,"height":941},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","description":"Prospective strat\u00e9gique et alerte pr\u00e9coce \uff65 Risques politiques et g\u00e9opolitiques \u00b7 Sc\u00e9narios","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization","name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Red Team Analysis Society"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/helenelavoix\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/5403964\/admin\/dashboard\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4","name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","description":"est pr\u00e9sidente et fondatrice de The Red Team Analysis Society. Elle est titulaire d'un doctorat en \u00e9tudes politiques et d'une ma\u00eetrise en politique internationale de l'Asie (avec distinction) de la School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), Universit\u00e9 de Londres, ainsi que d'une ma\u00eetrise en finance (major de promotion, Grande \u00c9cole, France).\r\n\r\nExperte en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte pr\u00e9coce, notamment pour les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et internationale, elle combine 30 ans d'exp\u00e9rience en relations internationales et pr\u00e8s de 20 ans en prospective strat\u00e9gique et en alerte. Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/RTAS-Trump-and-AI.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41061"}],"version-history":[{"count":80,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41061\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41192,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41061\/revisions\/41192"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41130"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}