{"id":4797,"date":"2013-07-15T02:55:03","date_gmt":"2013-07-15T00:55:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=4797"},"modified":"2022-05-30T20:36:42","modified_gmt":"2022-05-30T18:36:42","slug":"rapport-avenir-potentiel-pour-syrie-dans-le-brouillard-de-guerre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/07\/15\/report-potential-futures-for-syria-in-the-fog-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Rapport - Futurs potentiels pour la Syrie dans le brouillard de la guerre"},"content":{"rendered":"

En plus d'\u00eatre une catastrophe humanitaire, la guerre en Syrie redessine les perspectives strat\u00e9giques de la r\u00e9gion et pr\u00e9sente des d\u00e9fis s\u00e9rieux et croissants pour la paix et la stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionales et mondiales. Parall\u00e8lement, le brouillard de la guerre rend la pr\u00e9vision et l'alerte plus difficiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce rapport 2013 pr\u00e9sente trois sc\u00e9narios principaux (conduisant \u00e0 dix sous-sc\u00e9narios) pour l'avenir de la Syrie et les perspectives de paix dans les cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es, apr\u00e8s avoir d\u00e9crit l'\u00e9tat des lieux et les acteurs sur le champ de bataille syrien. Pour tenir compte du brouillard de la guerre, il identifie les indicateurs \u00e0 surveiller qui ont un impact sur la probabilit\u00e9 de chaque sc\u00e9nario et consid\u00e8re les sc\u00e9narios comme un ensemble dynamique, o\u00f9 un avenir potentiel peut se transformer en un autre \u00e0 partir d'un \u00e9tat des lieux en \u00e9volution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/www.scribd.com\/document\/153852884\/Potential-Futures-for-Syria-in-the-Fog-of-War\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La s\u00e9rie de billets sur la Syrie, publi\u00e9e entre le 15 avril et le 8 juillet 2013, a \u00e9t\u00e9 revue et adapt\u00e9e pour constituer ce rapport.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ce rapport pr\u00e9sente trois sc\u00e9narios principaux (menant \u00e0 dix sous-sc\u00e9narios) pour l'avenir de la Syrie et les perspectives de paix dans les cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es, apr\u00e8s avoir d\u00e9crit l'\u00e9tat des lieux et les acteurs sur le champ de bataille syrien. Pour tenir compte du brouillard de la guerre, il identifie des indicateurs pour surveiller l'impact de la probabilit\u00e9 de chaque sc\u00e9nario et consid\u00e8re les sc\u00e9narios comme un ensemble dynamique, o\u00f9 un futur potentiel peut se transformer en un autre \u00e0 partir d'un \u00e9tat des lieux en \u00e9volution.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2499,252],"tags":[190,2058],"class_list":["post-4797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-syria","tag-scenarios","tag-syria-issues","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nReport - Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/07\/15\/rapport-avenir-potentiel-pour-syrie-dans-le-brouillard-de-guerre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Report - Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War • The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This report presents three main scenarios (leading to ten sub-scenarios) for the future of Syria and prospects for peace within the next five years, after describing the state of play and the actors on the Syrian battlefield. 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