{"id":5044,"date":"2022-05-30T18:53:28","date_gmt":"2022-05-30T16:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=5044"},"modified":"2026-01-14T17:49:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T16:49:44","slug":"portail-%c3%a0-intelligence-strat%c3%a9gique-%c3%a9valuations-pour-la-syrie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/05\/30\/understanding-the-war-in-syria-2013-to-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"Comprendre la guerre en Syrie - 2013 \u00e0 2017\/18"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vous trouverez ici une s\u00e9rie d'articles de recherche qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9s de 2013 \u00e0 2017 pour aider les acteurs \u00e0 naviguer dans la guerre en Syrie, avec des focus diff\u00e9rents selon les ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les premi\u00e8res ann\u00e9es de la guerre : jusqu'en 2013-2014<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Etat des lieux et acteurs de la guerre en Syrie<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans cette section, vous trouverez l'\u00e9tat des lieux et les diff\u00e9rentes cat\u00e9gories d'acteurs qui combattent en et sur la Syrie. Les articles \u00e9crits avant juillet 2013 sont en acc\u00e8s libre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">G\u00e9n\u00e9ralit\u00e9s et \u00e9volution de la guerre<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/04\/15\/avenir-potentiel-de-la-syrie-dans-le-brouillard-de-la-guerre-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Futurs potentiels pour la Syrie dans le brouillard de la guerre<\/a>, 15 avril 2013.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/07\/08\/%c3%a9valuer-les-forces-sur-le-champ-de-bataille-syrien\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00c9valuation des forces sur le champ de bataille syrien<\/a>par Helene Lavoix, 8 juillet 2013<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/24\/la-guerre-syrienne-le-debut-dune-nouvelle-phase\/\">La guerre de Syrie : le d\u00e9but d'une nouvelle phase,&nbsp;<\/a><span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">par H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, le 24 f\u00e9vrier 2014.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(Une&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/07\/15\/rapport-avenir-potentiel-pour-syrie-dans-le-brouillard-de-guerre\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">rapport en pdf - Futurs potentiels pour la Syrie dans le brouillard de la guerre<\/a>(Le rapport de la Commission europ\u00e9enne, publi\u00e9 le 15 juillet 2013, est \u00e9galement disponible).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Groupes Al-Assad<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/04\/22\/veille-strat%c3%a9gique-syria-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Groupes pro-Assad et forces d'opposition mod\u00e9r\u00e9es<\/a>, 22 avril 2013, plus mises \u00e0 jour jusqu'en juillet 2013.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/10\/07\/face-au-brouillard-de-la-guerre-en-syrie-mises-a-jour\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Face au brouillard de la guerre en Syrie : Mise \u00e0 jour - Les groupes du r\u00e9gime Al-Assad<\/a>, par H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, 7 octobre 2013.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les Kurdes (2013, 2014, 2017, 2018)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/04\/29\/intelligence-strategique-evaluation-pour-syria-3-state-of-play-play-part-ii\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Les Kurdes dans la guerre en Syrie<\/a>Le 29 avril 2013, avec des mises \u00e0 jour jusqu'au 26 mai 2013.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"text-align: justify;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/04\/faire-face-au-brouillard-de-la-guerre-en-syrie-la-trag%c3%a9die-du-kurdistan-mise-%c3%a0-jour-juillet-nov-2013\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Face au brouillard de la guerre en Syrie : La trag\u00e9die du Kurdistan<\/a>par H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, le 4 novembre 2013.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/10\/creating-rojava\/\">Les Kurdes et la Rojava, la construction de l'\u00c9tat dans la guerre de Syrie<\/a><span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">, par H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, 10 f\u00e9vrier 2014.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Salafis et djihadistes<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/05\/06\/intelligence-strat%c3%a9gique-evaluation-pour-la-syrie-4-%c3%a9tat-du-jeu-partie-iii\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Salafis nationalistes et djihadistes mondiaux en Syrie<\/a>, 6 mai 2013 avec des mises \u00e0 jour jusqu'au 24 f\u00e9vrier 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"text-align: justify;\" title=\"Face au brouillard de la guerre en Syrie : Les islamistes syriens jouent le &quot;jeu des tr\u00f4nes&quot; r\u00e9gional\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/10\/21\/face-au-brouillard-de-la-guerre-en-syrie-les-islamistes-syriens-jouent-le-jeu-r%c3%a9gional-des-tr%c3%b4nes\/\">Face au brouillard de la guerre en Syrie : Les islamistes syriens jouent le \"jeu des tr\u00f4nes\" r\u00e9gional<\/a><span style=\"text-align: justify;\">, par H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, 21 octobre 2013.<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/01\/27\/face-au-brouillard-de-la-guerre-pour-les-nationalistes-salafistes-a-venir\/\">Face au brouillard de la guerre en Syrie : la mont\u00e9e des nationalistes salafistes ?<\/a>&nbsp;par H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, le 27 janvier 2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios (2013) pour l'avenir de la guerre en Syrie<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En 2013, nous avons \u00e9galement \u00e9labor\u00e9 des sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir. Gardez \u00e0 l'esprit qu'id\u00e9alement, les sc\u00e9narios devraient ensuite \u00eatre utilis\u00e9s pour la surveillance et l'alerte pr\u00e9coce. En effet, les sc\u00e9narios \u00e9voluent, notamment en termes de vraisemblance, en fonction des changements sur le champ de bataille et des interactions entre tous les acteurs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/05\/13\/evaluation-du-renseignement-strategique-pour-la-syrie-5-scenario-1-paix-en-geneve\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9narios 1 : La paix \u00e0 Gen\u00e8ve<\/a> <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/05\/20\/intelligence-strategique-evaluation-pour-syria-5-scenario-2-no-syrians-in-geneva\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9narios 2 : Pas de Syrien \u00e0 Gen\u00e8ve<\/a> - <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/05\/27\/intelligence-strategique-evaluation-pour-la-syrie-7-scenario-3-1-une-vraie-victoire-en-syrie-un-islamique-sham\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9narios 3 : Une v\u00e9ritable victoire en Syrie<\/a>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/05\/27\/intelligence-strategique-evaluation-pour-la-syrie-7-scenario-3-1-une-vraie-victoire-en-syrie-un-islamique-sham\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9nario 3.1. : Un al-Sham islamique ?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/06\/03\/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9nario 3.2 : Une Syrie islamique nationaliste ?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/06\/03\/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9nario 3.3. : Une Syrie s\u00e9culaire ?<\/a>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/06\/03\/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9nario 3.3.1. Une Syrie des Fr\u00e8res musulmans<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/06\/10\/sia-for-syria-9-scenario-3-a-secular-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9nario 3.3.2 : Une Syrie v\u00e9ritablement la\u00efque ?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/06\/17\/intelligence-strategique-pour-la-syrie-scenario-3-4-reponse-a-un-assad-syrie\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sc\u00e9nario 3.4. Retour \u00e0 une Syrie d'Al-Assad ?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/10\/%c3%a9valuation-sc%c3%a9narios-et-indicateurs-pour-la-guerre-syrienne\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00c9valuation des sc\u00e9narios et des indicateurs de la guerre en Syrie<\/a>, par H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, 10 mars 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La guerre contre l'\u00c9tat islamique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ensuite, nous nous sommes principalement concentr\u00e9s sur l'\u00c9tat islamique. Vous pouvez acc\u00e9der \u00e0 notre travail d\u00e9taill\u00e9 dans le <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/11\/25\/portail-islamique-%c3%a9tat-guerre\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">section correspondante<\/a>&nbsp;car elle a une port\u00e9e plus large que la guerre en Syrie (voir notamment :&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2015\/11\/02\/at-war-against-the-islamic-state-from-syria-to-the-region\/\">En guerre contre l'\u00c9tat islamique - De la Syrie \u00e0 la r\u00e9gion<\/a>&nbsp;par H Lavoix, le 2 novembre 2015).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les ann\u00e9es 2016 et 2017<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une phase plus r\u00e9cente de la guerre en Syrie, de la fin 2016 \u00e0 2017, est trait\u00e9e principalement par l'analyse des signaux dans le cadre de l'\u00e9tude de la Commission europ\u00e9enne. <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/categorie\/produits-et-services\/surveillance-et-alerte\/tableau-danalyse-de-lhorizon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tableau d'analyse Horizon<\/a>, avec des articles plus longs sur les Kurdes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/02\/la-bataille-de-raqqa-les-kurds-et-turquie\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">La bataille de Raqqa, les Kurdes et la Turquie<\/a>&nbsp;- par H Lavoix, le 2 mai 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/05\/22\/the-kurds-in-syria-state-building-nouveau-modele-et-guerre\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Les Kurdes en Syrie - Construction de l'\u00c9tat, nouveau mod\u00e8le et guerre<\/a>&nbsp;- par H Lavoix, le 22 mai 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/06\/12\/le-moyen-orient-poudre-baril-et-la-grande-bataille-pour-raqqa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Le Powder Keg du Moyen-Orient et la grande bataille de Raqqa&nbsp;<\/a>\u2013<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/06\/12\/le-moyen-orient-poudre-baril-et-la-grande-bataille-pour-raqqa\/\">&nbsp;<\/a>par H Lavoix, le 12 juin 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/07\/03\/vers-une-guerre-renouvel%c3%a9e-en-syrie-kurds-et-turquie\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vers une nouvelle guerre en Syrie ? Les Kurdes et la Turquie -<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2017\/06\/12\/le-moyen-orient-poudre-baril-et-la-grande-bataille-pour-raqqa\/\">&nbsp;<\/a>par H Lavoix, le 3 juillet 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bibliographie <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a title=\"La guerre de Syrie - Bibliographie et sources\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/06\/24\/la-syrian-war-bibliography-and-sources\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">La guerre de Syrie - Bibliographie et sources<\/a>&nbsp;(premi\u00e8res ann\u00e9es de la guerre en Syrie)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">M\u00e9thodologie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voir \u00e9galement notre section sur <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/categorie\/comment-faire-prospective-et-alerte\/creer-des-scenarios-pour-lavenir\/construction-de-scenarios\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sc\u00e9narios et \u00e9laboration de sc\u00e9narios<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a style=\"text-align: justify;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/03\/10\/%c3%a9valuation-sc%c3%a9narios-et-indicateurs-pour-la-guerre-syrienne\/\">\u00c9valuation des sc\u00e9narios et des indicateurs de la guerre en Syrie<\/a>&nbsp;<span style=\"text-align: justify;\">(10 mars 2014).<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sur la mise \u00e0 jour des \u00e9valuations et sur la fa\u00e7on de faire face au brouillard de la guerre :&nbsp;<a title=\"Face au brouillard de la guerre en Syrie : Mises \u00e0 jour\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/10\/07\/face-au-brouillard-de-la-guerre-en-syrie-mises-a-jour\/\">Face au brouillard de la guerre en Syrie : Mises \u00e0 jour<\/a>&nbsp;(7 octobre 2013).<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que des mises \u00e0 jour parfois relativement longues sont n\u00e9cessaires pour maintenir la s\u00e9rie sur la Syrie \u00e0 jour, toute la section sur la Syrie a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9organis\u00e9e et une page de d\u00e9part pour la s\u00e9rie a \u00e9t\u00e9 introduite. Des mises \u00e0 jour jusqu'en octobre 2013 sont ajout\u00e9es entre-temps.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15327,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2499,252],"tags":[1716,1715,2560,190,1714,2058,522],"class_list":["post-5044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-syria","tag-battlefield","tag-international-actors","tag-open-access","tag-scenarios","tag-state-of-play-2","tag-syria-issues","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Understanding the War in Syria - 2013 to 2017\/18 &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"State of play and the diverse categories of actors fighting in and over Syria, various scenarios for the future of the war in Syria and updates.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2022\/05\/30\/portail-\u00e0-intelligence-strat\u00e9gique-\u00e9valuations-pour-la-syrie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Understanding the War in Syria - 2013 to 2017\/18 &#8226; 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