{"id":5525,"date":"2013-11-14T12:57:06","date_gmt":"2013-11-14T11:57:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=5525"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:11:44","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:11:44","slug":"the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/14\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly n\u00b0126, 14 novembre 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u00c9ditorial - Sous l'horizon ?<\/strong> La trag\u00e9die actuelle des Philippines, frapp\u00e9es par le typhon Haiyan \"est le mod\u00e8le m\u00eame d'une catastrophe environnementale moderne\", comme le souligne le blogueur de Reuters Philip Simon dans son \"<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.reuters.com\/felix-salmon\/2013\/11\/13\/cat-bonds-wouldnt-have-helped-the-philippines\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Les bons d'achat n'auraient pas aid\u00e9 les Philippines<\/a>.\u201d Ce n'est certainement pas en dessous de l'horizon ; cela semble \u00e9vident, et cela est affich\u00e9 sur toutes les cha\u00eenes d'information. Cependant, et cela peut \u00eatre sous l'horizon pour de nombreux citoyens, comme le souligne \u00e9galement Simon, \"Haiyan n'est pas une ville particuli\u00e8rement d\u00e9vastatrice\u00a0<i>financier<\/i>\u00a0catastrophe\". Simon poursuit en montrant que, outre le fait qu'il s'agit d'une trag\u00e9die humaine (avec toutefois un nombre de morts probablement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui envisag\u00e9), ce n'est pas si grave financi\u00e8rement. Selon lui, la plupart des acteurs ne sont pas si inquiets et, \"apr\u00e8s tout, tout l'argent qui arrive dans le pays pour aider \u00e0 reconstruire les zones d\u00e9vast\u00e9es finira par apporter une contribution positive au PIB du pays\".<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ce n'est pas la premi\u00e8re fois que j'entends ce type d'arguments, qui peuvent \u00eatre caricatur\u00e9s comme suit : les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames, et en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral tous les impacts du changement climatique sont, en fin de compte, des nouvelles plut\u00f4t bienvenues car elles vont g\u00e9n\u00e9rer une activit\u00e9 et une croissance \u00e9conomiques. Peu importe la perte nette de richesse, ni la destruction de la vie des citoyens et des individus, ce qui compte, c'est que la perte financi\u00e8re n'est pas si importante et qu'un calcul macro\u00e9conomique tr\u00e8s rapide semble dire qu'une nouvelle activit\u00e9 sera g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e. Il se peut que nous ne devions pas chercher plus loin que ces id\u00e9es tr\u00e8s rassurantes pour comprendre pourquoi rien n'est d\u00e9cid\u00e9 ni fait concernant le changement climatique et ses cons\u00e9quences.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ce qui peut \u00eatre enterr\u00e9 encore plus profond\u00e9ment sous l'horizon, c'est qu'en termes de dynamique politique, l'histoire peut \u00eatre plus complexe et tout \u00e0 fait diff\u00e9rente. Premi\u00e8rement, les dirigeants (les autorit\u00e9s politiques) sont des dirigeants parce qu'ils ont le devoir d'assurer la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de leurs citoyens. Il est vrai qu'ils ne le font peut-\u00eatre pas, mais ils sont alors des autorit\u00e9s pr\u00e9datrices et un jour ou l'autre, ils devront faire face \u00e0 des protestations et des r\u00e9volutions. Deuxi\u00e8mement, les cons\u00e9quences tr\u00e8s r\u00e9elles des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames en termes de destruction nette de richesses, outre l'impact tr\u00e8s r\u00e9el du changement climatique sur l'environnement - vous savez, ce \"cadre\" dans lequel nous vivons et qui est plus ou moins propice \u00e0 la vie et \u00e0 la survie - existent et modifient la fa\u00e7on dont les communaut\u00e9s et les pays touch\u00e9s vivent et entretiennent des relations entre eux. L'\u00e9volution en termes de relations internationales va et va encore bien au-del\u00e0 de la diplomatie de l'urgence et de l'influence. Elle se d\u00e9clinera en termes g\u00e9opolitiques et strat\u00e9giques, et il serait grand temps de la consid\u00e9rer... comme un pendant \u00e0 notre d\u00e9cision collective de ne consid\u00e9rer le changement climatique et son impact que sous l'angle de la croissance et des pertes financi\u00e8res.<\/p>\n<p>Cliquez sur l'image ci-dessous pour lire sur Paper.Li<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/paper.li\/HLavoix\/1323337992?edition_id=9aca1d90-4d01-11e3-8178-00259071bfec\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-5526\" title=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 126\" alt=\"analyse de l&#039;horizon, signal faible, alerte strat\u00e9gique, s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale, risque politique\" src=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-126.jpg\" width=\"550\" height=\"573\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-126.jpg 550w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-126-250x260.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-126-300x313.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-126-287x300.jpg 287w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editorial - Sous l'horizon ? La trag\u00e9die actuelle des Philippines, frapp\u00e9es par le typhon Haiyan \"est le mod\u00e8le m\u00eame d'une catastrophe environnementale moderne\", comme le souligne Philip Simon, blogueur de Reuters, dans son article \"Les obligations catastrophes n'auraient pas aid\u00e9 les Philippines\". Ce n'est certainement pas en dessous de l'horizon ; cela semble \u00e9vident, et s'affiche sur .... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/14\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" L'analyse de l'\u00e9quipe (rouge) Hebdomadaire n\u00b0126, 14 novembre 2013 \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3249],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-weekly-scan","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No126, 14 November 2013 &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/14\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No126, 14 November 2013 &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Editorial &#8211; Below the horizon? The current tragedy of The Philippines, hit by the typhoon Haiyan &#8220;is the very model of a modern environmental catastrophe&#8221;, as underlined by Reuters&#8217; blogger Philip Simon in his &#8220;Cat bonds wouldn\u2019t have helped the Philippines.&#8221; This is certainly not below the horizon; it seems obvious, and is displayed on &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No126, 14 November 2013\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/14\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-11-14T11:57:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:11:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-126.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No126, 14 November 2013\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-11-14T11:57:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-14T08:11:44+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":473,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-126.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"The Weekly Scan - Editorial Archives\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no126-14-november-2013\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No126, 14 November 2013 &#8226; 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