{"id":5528,"date":"2013-11-18T16:37:20","date_gmt":"2013-11-18T15:37:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=5528"},"modified":"2021-10-06T19:46:35","modified_gmt":"2021-10-06T17:46:35","slug":"m%c3%a9thodologie-op%c3%a9rationnelle-menaces-s%c3%a9curit%c3%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/18\/operational-methodology-security-threats\/","title":{"rendered":"Vers une m\u00e9thodologie op\u00e9rationnelle d'analyse des menaces futures pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et du risque politique (1)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this day and age of speed, not to say haste, unequally shared resources and wish to relatively easily\u00a0obtain answers to complex questions, we are faced in strategic foresight and warning analysis (or political risk analysis) with a very serious challenge. We must choose a methodology that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">allows for a &#8220;good enough&#8221; analysis (Fein, 1994), i.e. an analysis that will allow for proper decisions to be taken;<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">can be used relatively quickly (the one minute crystal ball prediction will however remain impossible);<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">can be used relatively easily, without scaring both analysts and officers;<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">can be used, for most actors, relatively cheaply;<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">keep the analyst in control (most of the time\u00a0opaque software and tools are regarded with suspicion);<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">allows for team and collective efforts;<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\">transmits a minimum of knowledge in political science and international relations, as sometimes &#8211; or often &#8211; people analyzing political and international issues and related risks come from diverse backgrounds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"pull alignright\"><p>Related<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/11\/18\/operational-methodology-security-threats\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1)<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/12\/02\/methodology-to-analyze-future-security-threats-2-a-game-of-chess\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats (2): a Game of Chess<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/12\/16\/methodology-to-analyze-future-security-threats-3-scenarios\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">How to Analyze Future Security Threats (3): Scenarios as an Organic Living System<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/12\/30\/methodology-to-analyze-future-security-threats-4\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">How to Analyze Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/01\/13\/how-to-analyze-future-security-threats-5-scenarios-and-crises\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">How to Analyze Future Security Threats (5): Scenarios and Crises<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Building upon the diverse open source methods and tools existing in the field (Glenn &amp; Gordon, 2009), which methodology can we choose or design that will fulfill these\u00a0criteria? With this post and the next ones in the series, w<\/span>e shall operationalize further the foresight and warning methodology described and explained <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2011\/09\/28\/foresight-method\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">previously<\/a>\u00a0to build he model, create scenarios, and develop indicators for warning\u00a0(steps 2, 3 and 5 of a more general <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2011\/11\/28\/sfw-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">analytical method<\/a>).\u00a0Furthermore, this approach should also be useful to classical analysis (i.e. an analysis that does not start by making the model explicit, but moves directly to writing), because it may help checking or developing the implicit model used for analysis.<\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The security of organised groups at the core of analysis<\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Let us remember that the overall theme or meta-issue that interests us is the security of people organised in groups, stemming from the need for survival of every individual being.* More narrowly, we are focusing on nation<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Blitz_West_End_Air_Shelter-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-5546\" title=\"An Air raid shelter in a London Underground station in London during The Blitz. By US Govt [Public domain], NARA, 195768, via Wikimedia Commons\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Blitz_West_End_Air_Shelter-1.jpg\" alt=\"Red (Team) Analysis, national security, political risk analysis, strategic foresight and warning, strategic warning\" width=\"300\" height=\"379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Blitz_West_End_Air_Shelter-1.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Blitz_West_End_Air_Shelter-1-250x316.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Blitz_West_End_Air_Shelter-1-237x300.jpg 237w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>al security, as a nation is one specific form of group. This idea of security of organised groups will be at the core of each of our strategic foresight and warning or risk analysis, for most of our analytical questions (see\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2011\/11\/28\/sfw-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Strategic Foresight &amp; Warning Analysis<\/a>). If you are analyzing water security and a question such as &#8220;How will water\u00a0problems (shortages, poor water quality, or floods) impact US national security interests over the next 30\u00a0years?&#8221;, or energy security and &#8220;How will energy related problems impact country X national security interests (or company A interests) over the next 20\u00a0years?&#8221; or the future political situation in Niger, Egypt, Syria, China, Japan, Spain or whatever country within the next five years and how it could impact your country or your organisation (for example a NGO) or company&#8217;s activity and interests, or the potential for war in the Middle East or in the Far East within the next ten years, at the core of your investigations there is the need for survival and then security of organised human groups.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Actually, if water is an issue in terms of SF&amp;W, if we analyze it, it is because we deal with the survival of human beings, and, as far as human beings are concerned, water is crucial for life. The same logic is at work for energy, as masterly shown, for example, by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theupsideofdown.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thomas Homer Dixon<\/a> (2006), or for any other issue deserving to be analyzed we would identify. Were we from another planet where species answer to different biological needs, water and energy might be irrelevant, and replaced by different problems.<\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Using the same model of fundamental political dynamics for each analysis<\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thus, at the heart of any of our analyses we need to think through or with the dynamics underlying any polity. The aim here is not to argue upon the universality of a model, but to give practical advice, grounded as much as possible in social science findings and understanding, to analysts who must deliver strategic foresight and warning or risk analysis for their decision and policy-makers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The very basic story that, building upon Weber, Moore, Elias, Mann, Ertman and others (see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2012\/06\/09\/future-of-state-and-governance-bibliography\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">state building and governance bibliography<\/a>), seems to be true across a large spectrum runs as follows:** individuals, inhabiting a specific geographical and thus ecological environment, live in a group (and more largely in a society) to improve their odds to survive and more generally to see their needs met. This group entrusts political authorities with the mission to ensure its security. In exchange for the successful accomplishment of its mission, the ruler continues to rule, and receives various benefits such as status and resources. The ruler also extracts from the population resources, as means to carry upon its tasks, and exerts and keeps a monopoly on the means of violence, which is also used for the extraction of resources. If the application of violence is perceived as just and in agreement with historically constructed beliefs for this specific society, then it is seen as legitimate. Furthermore if the extraction of resources is also perceived as just, again according to the historically held beliefs of the group and if the ruler truly ensures the security of the group, then the rule is perceived as legitimate. Legitimacy, in turn will strengthen the right of the ruler to rule, its power and ability to govern.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/State_of_the_Union-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-5548\" title=\"By White House photo by Susan Sterner (President Delivers &quot;State of the Union&quot; 28 January 2003), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/State_of_the_Union-2.jpg\" alt=\"State_of_the_Union 2\" width=\"300\" height=\"196\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/State_of_the_Union-2.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/State_of_the_Union-2-250x163.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>To this we should add that other powerful individuals or actors will, most of the time, compete with others, notably with the ruler, to increase their own status, privilege and resources, and, ultimately, for supremacy (see for an explanation of the dynamics related to the interactions between elite groups and ruler <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2012\/01\/08\/everstate-setting-the-stage-ii\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Chronicles of Everstate, Setting the stage II<\/a>, part 2 of the post). Meanwhile some groups may form within society and have competing demands the ruler needs to balance, unless tension and escalation arises and end up threatening the security of the whole group and the rule of the ruler.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On this polity, various kinds of pressures, intrinsic (stemming from the very evolution of the polity) and extrinsic (originating from outside the polity), will exert themselves.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Of course, in reality, things are more complex, but they tend to be variations and developments built over those fundamental dynamics.***<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thus, the good news is that, for the analytical phase during which we build our model, part of this model will not have to be created back from scratch, but will already be &#8220;almost&#8221; available. We shall, most of the time, be able to use the story told above and its corresponding graph (as shown below), adapting them to the specific issue or problem we are analyzing, as we shall, practically, see with the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2013\/12\/02\/methodology-to-analyze-future-security-threats-2-a-game-of-chess\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">next post<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/model-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5539\" title=\"click for larger image - the pressures and threats (red nodes) will then impact the whole polity\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/model-1.jpg\" alt=\"model 1\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/model-1.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/model-1-250x188.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/model-1-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/model-1-1000x750.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/model-1-600x450.jpg 600w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/model-1-400x300.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">* Barrington Moore brilliantly explains those fundamental dynamics in the first chapters of\u00a0<em>Injustice: Social bases of Obedience and Revolt<\/em>, (London: Macmillan, 1978).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">** For a detailed and longer development, see Helene Lavoix,\u00a0\u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rsis.edu.sg\/publications\/WorkingPapers\/WP207.pdf\">Enabling Security for the 21st Century: Intelligence &amp; Strategic Foresight and Warning<\/a>,\u201d RSIS Working Paper No. 207, August 2010, pp.3-6.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">*** A more explicit model, yet reduced (compared with reality) model, is used for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2011\/11\/13\/creating-the-model-from-map-to-dynamic-network-part-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Chronicles of Everstate<\/a> and could be chosen as basis here. However, it is already quite large and as long as we do not have computerized means to manipulate and use it easily, it may prove too complex to satisfy our initial criteria.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Helen Fein\u2019s idea of a \u201cGood Enough Model\u201d \u2018Tools and Alarms: Uses of Models for Explanation and Anticipation\u2019, <i>Journal of Ethno-Development<\/i>, 4 (1), pp. 31-35, (1994), Appendix 2.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, <i>The Millennium Project: Futures Research Methodology<\/i>, Version 3.0, Ed. 2009.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thomas Homer-Dixon, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theupsideofdown.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of civilization<\/a><\/em>\u00a0(Knopf, 2006).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Credit header image: A chess game between Prime Minister Menahem Begin and U.S. National security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski in Camp David during the peace negotiations between Israel and Egypt. By Government Press Office (GPO) http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/people\/69061470@N05 CC-BY-SA-3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En cette \u00e9poque de vitesse, pour ne pas dire de pr\u00e9cipitation, de ressources in\u00e9galement partag\u00e9es et de d\u00e9sir d'obtenir relativement facilement des r\u00e9ponses \u00e0 des questions complexes, nous sommes confront\u00e9s, en mati\u00e8re de prospective strat\u00e9gique et d'analyse d'alerte (ou d'analyse du risque politique), \u00e0 un d\u00e9fi tr\u00e8s s\u00e9rieux. Nous devons choisir une m\u00e9thodologie qui : permet une analyse \"suffisamment bonne\" (Fein, 1994), ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/18\/operational-methodology-security-threats\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" Vers une m\u00e9thodologie op\u00e9rationnelle d'analyse des menaces de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et des risques politiques futurs (1) \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1206,3237],"tags":[188,170,1100,2560,1210,190,236,522],"class_list":["post-5528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","category-scenario-building","tag-analysis","tag-geopolitics","tag-indicators","tag-open-access","tag-risk","tag-scenarios","tag-strategic-warning","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/18\/m\u00e9thodologie-op\u00e9rationnelle-menaces-s\u00e9curit\u00e9\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this day and age of speed, not to say haste, unequally shared resources and wish to relatively easily\u00a0obtain answers to complex questions, we are faced in strategic foresight and warning analysis (or political risk analysis) with a very serious challenge. We must choose a methodology that: allows for a &#8220;good enough&#8221; analysis (Fein, 1994), &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1)\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2013\/11\/18\/m\u00e9thodologie-op\u00e9rationnelle-menaces-s\u00e9curit\u00e9\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-11-18T15:37:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-06T17:46:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Chess_at_Camp_David-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1278\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"738\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/18\\\/operational-methodology-security-threats\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/18\\\/operational-methodology-security-threats\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1)\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-11-18T15:37:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-06T17:46:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/18\\\/operational-methodology-security-threats\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1371,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/18\\\/operational-methodology-security-threats\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2013\\\/12\\\/Chess_at_Camp_David-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"analysis\",\"geopolitics\",\"indicators\",\"Open Access\",\"risk\",\"scenarios\",\"strategic warning\",\"war\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analysis and Assessment\",\"Methodology of Scenario building\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/18\\\/operational-methodology-security-threats\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/18\\\/operational-methodology-security-threats\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/18\\\/operational-methodology-security-threats\\\/\",\"name\":\"Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) &#8226; 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Early Warning \uff65 Political &amp; Geopolitical Risk \u00b7 Scenarios\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Red-Team-Analysis\\\/341280995886057\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/helenelavoix\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/5403964\\\/admin\\\/dashboard\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\",\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"description\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. 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Elle a v\u00e9cu et travaill\u00e9 dans cinq pays, effectu\u00e9 des missions dans 16 autres et form\u00e9 des officiers de haut niveau dans le monde entier, par exemple \u00e0 Singapour et dans le cadre de programmes europ\u00e9ens en Tunisie et en Jordanie.\r\n\r\nElle a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9e de cours (niveau Master) et a enseign\u00e9 la m\u00e9thodologie et la pratique de la prospective strat\u00e9gique et de l'alerte pr\u00e9coce dans des institutions prestigieuses telles que le RSIS \u00e0 Singapour, SciencesPo-PSIA, ou l'Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure en Tunisie et l'ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.\r\nElle publie r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement sur les questions g\u00e9opolitiques, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des approvisionnements et de l'uranium, l'intelligence artificielle, l'ordre international, la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine et d'autres sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale.\r\n\r\nEngag\u00e9e dans l'am\u00e9lioration continue des m\u00e9thodologies de prospective et d'alerte, Mme Lavoix combine expertise acad\u00e9mique et exp\u00e9rience de terrain pour anticiper les d\u00e9fis mondiaux de demain.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Chess_at_Camp_David-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5528\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}