{"id":6294,"date":"2014-01-30T13:27:06","date_gmt":"2014-01-30T12:27:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=6294"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:11:42","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:11:42","slug":"lanalyse-de-l%c3%a9quipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-no137-30-janvier-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/01\/30\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no137-30-january-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 30 janvier 2014 - Perceptions et faits"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00c9ditorial - <strong>Perceptions et faits<\/strong> - Outre l'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la r\u00e9gionalisation et de l'internationalisation de la guerre et du bourbier syrien, outre l'utilisation futuriste par Erdogan du \"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.hurriyetdailynews.com\/pm-erdogan-uses-hologram-to-address-izmir-party-members-for-first-time-in-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&amp;nID=61610&amp;NewsCatID=338\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hologramme pour s'adresser aux membres du parti<\/a>\u201d (imaginez un monde o\u00f9 une telle pratique serait courante), entre autres, cette semaine nous pr\u00e9sente deux exemples tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressants de l'importance de la perception et de sa relation avec les faits.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">L'identification des signaux faibles et la surveillance en vue de l'alerte exigent que nous observions le monde, les acteurs et leurs actions pour essayer de comprendre ce qui pourrait se passer ensuite ou, plus largement, la cha\u00eene d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements potentiels qui pourrait suivre.  Nous devons donc non seulement pr\u00eater attention aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements et aux faits, mais aussi \u00e0 la mani\u00e8re dont les autres interpr\u00e9teront ces ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes. La fa\u00e7on dont les acteurs per\u00e7oivent le monde influencera \u00e0 son tour leurs actions - y compris leurs d\u00e9clarations et les analyses qu'ils publient. Celles-ci seront alors per\u00e7ues par tous les acteurs et influenceront \u00e0 leur tour leurs actions. De ce r\u00e9seau de perceptions, d'actions et de r\u00e9actions r\u00e9ciproques \u00e9merge une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 faite de faits ou d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements que nous recherchons et essayons de pr\u00e9voir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com\/2014\/01\/29\/how-u-s-should-respond-to-chinas-growing-assertiveness\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La Chine et son \"affirmation de soi\" croissante <\/a>(telle que per\u00e7ue par deux universitaires am\u00e9ricains et relay\u00e9e par CNN) et les politiques russe et am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 l'\u00e9gard de l'Ukraine sont deux exemples tr\u00e8s concrets de ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne. Dans le premier cas, essayez de lire l'article publi\u00e9 sur la Chine, et imaginez que vous \u00eates chinois : comment vous sentiriez-vous et que feriez-vous, en tant que fonctionnaire, ou quelle politique soutiendriez-vous en tant que citoyen ? Imaginez qu'un article tr\u00e8s similaire ait \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 par des universitaires chinois, mais qu'ils remplacent la Chine par l'Am\u00e9rique, en se basant sur des faits exacts mais en les expliquant sous un angle tr\u00e8s sp\u00e9cifique ? R\u00e9p\u00e9tez la m\u00eame exp\u00e9rience en imaginant que vous \u00eates cor\u00e9en, puis japonais. Vos sentiments et les actions que vous voudriez entreprendre seraient-ils diff\u00e9rents \u00e0 chaque fois ? Vos sentiments seraient-ils forts ? Les tensions croissantes qui r\u00e9sultent le plus souvent de perceptions contradictoires ont \u00e9t\u00e9 illustr\u00e9es par les Nations unies (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-25943403\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BBC News - Les tensions sur l'histoire de l'Asie s'exacerbent lors du d\u00e9bat \u00e0 l'ONU<\/a>). Cela, esp\u00e9rons aussi que les tensions en Asie de l'Est ne s'apaiseront pas de sit\u00f4t.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">En ce qui concerne l'Ukraine, les perceptions am\u00e8nent les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Russie \u00e0 adopter des politiques tr\u00e8s similaires, que chacun consid\u00e8re (ou dit consid\u00e9rer) comme justes et faites pour le bien de l'Ukraine : le <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/01\/30\/us-ukraine-usa-sanctions-idUSBREA0T04O20140130\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Les \u00c9tats-Unis se pr\u00e9parent \u00e0 des sanctions financi\u00e8res<\/a> alors que la Russie\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/01\/30\/us-ukraine-arbuzov-idUSBREA0S0HI20140130\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">attend le nouveau gouvernement de l'Ukraine pour mettre pleinement en \u0153uvre le sauvetage<\/a>\u201c. Du point de vue russe, l'approche am\u00e9ricaine peut \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme inacceptable, une ing\u00e9rence dans les affaires d'un pays souverain, qui plus est dans le cadre de son \"\u00e9tranger proche\". D'un point de vue am\u00e9ricain, le comportement de la Russie peut \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme inacceptable, une mani\u00e8re \u00e9nergique de manipuler ce qu'un gouvernement \u00e9tranger ind\u00e9pendant d\u00e9mocratiquement \u00e9lu peut faire, c'est-\u00e0-dire une ing\u00e9rence dans les affaires d'un pays souverain.  Nous avons donc, en fait, des perceptions similaires, mais chacune s'applique \u00e0 un c\u00f4t\u00e9 oppos\u00e9 du spectre politique ukrainien. Malgr\u00e9 tous les discours sur le d\u00e9passement de la mentalit\u00e9 de la guerre froide, les perceptions de la guerre froide semblent encore tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9gnantes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00catre capable d'avertir et de pr\u00e9voir (comme pour la conception d'une strat\u00e9gie) exige que nous prenions conscience de ces perceptions, que nous nous en abstractions en tant qu'analyste, d'abord pour pouvoir voir comment elles influencent les acteurs, et ensuite, lorsque nous fournissons des produits d'avertissement et de pr\u00e9vision, pour nous assurer que notre message peut \u00eatre entendu.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Id\u00e9alement, cela pourrait \u00e9galement conduire \u00e0 une meilleure compr\u00e9hension entre les acteurs et, peut-\u00eatre, \u00e0 un avenir plus constructif.<\/p>\n<p>Cliquez sur l'image ci-dessous pour lire sur Paper.Li<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/paper.li\/HLavoix\/1323337992?edition_id=cc864700-8983-11e3-a4aa-00259071bfec\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-6295\" title=\"Le Red Team Analysis Weekly 137\" alt=\"perceptions, images dans la politique mondiale, faits, analyse de l&#039;horizon, alerte strat\u00e9gique, risque, s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale, s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-137sc.jpeg\" width=\"550\" height=\"710\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-137sc.jpeg 550w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-137sc-250x323.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-137sc-300x387.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-137sc-232x300.jpeg 232w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editorial - Perceptions et faits - Outre l'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la r\u00e9gionalisation et de l'internationalisation de la guerre et du bourbier syrien, outre l'utilisation futuriste par Erdogan de \"l'hologramme pour s'adresser aux membres du parti\" (imaginez un monde o\u00f9 une telle pratique serait courante), entre autres, cette semaine nous pr\u00e9sente deux exemples tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressants de l'importance ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/01\/30\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no137-30-january-2014\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 30 January 2014 - Perceptions and Facts \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3249],"tags":[61,1149,1809,2057,792,1575,1166,220,1613,2058,446,2175,522],"class_list":["post-6294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-china","tag-east-asia","tag-facts","tag-india","tag-japan","tag-lebanon","tag-perception","tag-russia","tag-south-korea","tag-syria-issues","tag-turkey","tag-u-s","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 30 January 2014 - Perceptions and Facts &#8226; 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