{"id":6402,"date":"2014-02-06T15:26:48","date_gmt":"2014-02-06T14:26:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=6402"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:11:41","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:11:41","slug":"lanalyse-de-l%c3%a9quipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-no138-6-f%c3%a9vrier-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/06\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 6 f\u00e9vrier 2014 - Le syst\u00e8me financier... \u00e0 nouveau"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00c9ditorial - <strong>Le syst\u00e8me financier... encore une fois -<\/strong>\u00a0La <a title=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly n\u00b0136, 23 janvier 2014\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/01\/23\/lanalyse-de-l%c3%a9quipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-no136-23-janvier-2014\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">23 janvier Hebdomadaire<\/a>\u00a0a choisi la contraction de l'IPM chinois comme l'un des signaux \u00e0 remarquer. Les effets de la baisse de l'indice de confiance des consommateurs chinois ont \u00e9t\u00e9 ressentis notamment en Asie, mais, du moins jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, il ne s'est pas produit grand chose dans le reste du monde. Ainsi, quels types d'avertissement pourrions-nous \u00e9mettre suite \u00e0 cette contraction, ajout\u00e9e aux probl\u00e8mes mon\u00e9taires des pays \u00e9mergents, ces derniers \u00e9tant pr\u00e9vus depuis des mois ? Devrions-nous suivre ceux qui ne se posent pas vraiment de questions, qui ne consid\u00e8rent pas ces signaux comme m\u00e9ritant une grande attention, et qui pensent simplement que les affaires continueront comme d'habitude pour toujours ?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Par ailleurs, devrions-nous, en tant que\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/users\/phoenix-capital-research\">Phoenix Capital Research<\/a>\u00a0en publiant sur le blog financier plut\u00f4t baissier Zero Hedge, demandez : \"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/contributed\/2014-02-04\/anyone-really-surprised-system-brink-again\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Quelqu'un est-il vraiment surpris que le syst\u00e8me soit \u00e0 nouveau au bord du gouffre ?<\/a>\u201d Nous suivrions alors le m\u00eame argument (logique) selon lequel comme rien n'a vraiment et r\u00e9ellement \u00e9t\u00e9 fait sur le plan financier, et comme la m\u00eame cause produit toujours le m\u00eame effet, nous devrions \u00eatre pr\u00eats pour un autre \u00e9pisode mammouth de la crise, et ce depuis un certain temps. La question n'est donc pas de savoir s'il y aura un nouvel effondrement du syst\u00e8me, mais quand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Et s'il y avait aussi, potentiellement, une autre fa\u00e7on d'envisager la situation ? Dans ce cas, les signaux faibles ne seraient pas seulement les indications que nous avons vues pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, mais aussi la r\u00e9action minimale de tant de march\u00e9s financiers, ajout\u00e9e \u00e0 l'\u00e9rosion de la classe moyenne, et \u00e0 la propagation de la pauvret\u00e9 qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 constat\u00e9e \u00e0 maintes reprises au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, notamment dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s. Dans cette hypoth\u00e8se alternative, le changement depuis 2007\/2008 s'est effectivement produit, mais pas le changement qu'attendaient les acteurs \u00e9conomiques rationnels croyant en un syst\u00e8me relativement bon et juste. L'\u00e9volution r\u00e9elle aurait pu \u00eatre lente et ni\u00e9e, elle aurait pu \u00eatre fond\u00e9e sur l'injustice l\u00e9gitim\u00e9e par une id\u00e9ologie d\u00e9pass\u00e9e, sur l'exploitation du plus grand nombre au profit du plus petit nombre et sur la pr\u00e9servation d'un syst\u00e8me qui laisse une \u00e9lite sp\u00e9cifique au pouvoir depuis un certain temps et qui ne souhaite que pr\u00e9server ses privil\u00e8ges (voir <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/portail-chroniques-futur-etat-moderne\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Les chroniques de Everstate<\/a> pour la <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/02\/26\/2012-evt-material-stakes-in-an-obsol%c3%a8te-vision-du-monde-les-chroniques-de-toujours\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mat\u00e9riel<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2012\/02\/19\/the-chroniques-deversion-2011-evt-2012-evt-an-obsol%c3%a8te-vision-du-monde\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">id\u00e9ologique<\/a> les enjeux et les dynamiques \u00e0 l'\u0153uvre dans la politique des \u00e9lites).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Si ces changements ont vraiment eu lieu, comme c'est tr\u00e8s probablement le cas, les risques de voir un effondrement qui toucherait les plus riches, au moins \u00e0 court terme, pourraient \u00eatre r\u00e9duits. Cela ne signifie pas que l'\"effondrement\" ne toucherait pas un grand nombre de personnes, mais les personnes au pouvoir peuvent croire qu'elles sont maintenant suffisamment isol\u00e9es et prot\u00e9g\u00e9es pour ne pas s'en soucier vraiment, financi\u00e8rement. Pourtant, auraient-ils \u00e9galement raison de ne pas s'en soucier sur d'autres fronts ? La classe moyenne est une composante essentielle des d\u00e9mocraties, sa disparition pourrait donc bien envoyer des ondes de choc \u00e0 travers nos r\u00e9gimes d\u00e9mocratiques, comme l'indique la mont\u00e9e des alliances paneurop\u00e9ennes d'extr\u00eame droite. Un stress \u00e9conomique prolong\u00e9, comme le conna\u00eet le Japon, ou un ralentissement \u00e9conomique, comme cela pourrait se produire dans certains pays \u00e9mergents, pourraient \u00eatre un facteur favorisant un comportement extr\u00eame des autorit\u00e9s politiques incapables de trouver un autre moyen d'assurer leur l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 et donc leur pouvoir. En d'autres termes, cela pourrait \u00eatre une incitation \u00e0 la guerre, d'autant plus que la tension internationale, par rapport \u00e0 2008, est beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Des analyses multidisciplinaires d\u00e9taill\u00e9es de pr\u00e9vision et d'alerte sont plus que jamais n\u00e9cessaires pour tous, y compris les plus privil\u00e9gi\u00e9s, si l'on veut prendre au mieux des d\u00e9cisions strat\u00e9giques, ou si l'on veut que les surprises \"\u00e9tranges\" et potentiellement mortelles abondent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cliquez sur l'image ci-dessous pour lire sur Paper.Li<a href=\"http:\/\/paper.li\/HLavoix\/1323337992?edition_id=f5fe1470-8f03-11e3-9d94-00259071bfec\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-6403\" title=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 138 \" alt=\"alerte strat\u00e9gique, risque politique, pr\u00e9vision strat\u00e9gique, guerre, conflit, s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationale\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-138-sc.jpeg\" width=\"550\" height=\"457\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-138-sc.jpeg 550w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-138-sc-250x208.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-138-sc-300x249.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editorial - Le syst\u00e8me financier... encore - L'Hebdo du 23 janvier a s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9 la contraction du PMI chinois comme l'un des signaux \u00e0 remarquer. Les effets de la chute du PMI chinois ont \u00e9t\u00e9 ressentis notamment en Asie, mais, du moins jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, il ne s'est pas pass\u00e9 grand-chose dans le reste du monde. Ainsi, quels types d'avertissement pourrions-nous ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/06\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \" L'analyse hebdomadaire de l'(\u00e9quipe) rouge - 6 f\u00e9vrier 2014 - Le syst\u00e8me financier... encore \"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3249],"tags":[1172,61,576,1149,81,1666,1817,91,1620,792,299,1220,1635,692,612,919,306,220,1634,1192,1813,2058,446,2175,522],"class_list":["post-6402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-caucasus","tag-china","tag-crisis","tag-east-asia","tag-europe","tag-far-right","tag-fleet","tag-iran","tag-iraq","tag-japan","tag-jihad","tag-jordan","tag-mena","tag-middle-class","tag-middle-east","tag-navy","tag-pakistan","tag-russia","tag-salafism","tag-south-asia","tag-south-east-asia","tag-syria-issues","tag-turkey","tag-u-s","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 6 February 2014 - The financial system\u2026 again &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/06\/lanalyse-de-l\u00e9quipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-no138-6-f\u00e9vrier-2014\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 6 February 2014 - The financial system\u2026 again &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Editorial &#8211; The financial system&#8230; again &#8211;\u00a0The 23 January Weekly\u00a0selected\u00a0the contraction of the Chinese PMI\u00a0as one of the signals to notice. Impacts of the China PMI drop have been felt notably in Asia, but, at least so far, not so much happened in the rest of the world. Thus, which types of warning could we &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly &#8211; 6 February 2014 &#8211; The financial system\u2026 again\u00a0\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/06\/lanalyse-de-l\u00e9quipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-no138-6-f\u00e9vrier-2014\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-02-06T14:26:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:11:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-138-sc.jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/06\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/02\\\/06\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly &#8211; 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. 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Impacts of the China PMI drop have been felt notably in Asia, but, at least so far, not so much happened in the rest of the world. Thus, which types of warning could we &hellip; Continuer la lecture \u00ab\u00a0The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly &#8211; 6 February 2014 &#8211; The financial system\u2026 again\u00a0\u00bb","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2014\/02\/06\/lanalyse-de-l\u00e9quipe-rouge-hebdomadaire-no138-6-f\u00e9vrier-2014\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2014-02-06T14:26:48+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-04-14T08:11:41+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/The-Red-Team-Analysis-Weekly-138-sc.jpeg","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/02\/06\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/02\/06\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4"},"headline":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly &#8211; 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